Russia/Ukraine conflict

[nativewolf]

Human-piloted Fighter/Bomber a/c have NOT been tested in this war (certainly not Western a/c like the F-35 you're writing off). Don't count them out (at your peril).

They've been tested, mig vs mig has happened. Stealth aircraft, no. Russia apparently flew a su57 but who knows. Given what we see it would have been par for the course and foolish.

 

[nativewolf]

The intelligence services were engaged before the invasion. Somebody in there gave the US Putin's playbook. Biden was publicly calling out Putin's moved before he did them because of this.

Somebody in the FSB has also been feeding intelligence to Ukraine. I personally think the FSB letters are real, but regardless of whether they are or not, some details are congruent with the intelligence passed on to the Ukrainians and US.

This shows that there was enough concern within the services about the leadership failure that they decided to tell the enemy Putin's plans. The FSB letters describe the process, this analyst is told to write a rosy report, and then their boss rewrites it to be more rosy, and as it goes up the chain it's further warped to sound rosier until it doesn't look anything like the original report which was fiction to begin with.

The FSB letters doesn't say whether or not this is new, but I suspect the intense spinning of facts is fairly new because Putin is less tolerant of bad news than he used to be.

The Russians have a lot of problems with their military, corruption, one horse economy, etc., but their intelligence services developed during the cold war were in the same league with the best in the world, and all evidence is they have stayed close to that level since.



The US can win a conventional war almost anywhere, but that's not winning the whole war. If the US had approached Iraq like they did Japan and Germany after WW II they probably could have won the peace, but once an insurgency gets going, all that weaponry is of limited usefulness. In the end the US left Iraq with its tail between its legs because it couldn't win the insurgency. The US won the first phase of the war easily, it lost the war.

Insurgencies are hard to win. High tech weapons can help, but boots on the ground is the most important thing. The magic ratio is 20 troops per 1000 population. Less than that, an occupation is almost certain to fail unless the civilian population is accepting the occupation. In the last 120 years, less than the magic ratio worked once in Japan after WW II.




Putin wants to cast this war as a war with NATO because the Russian public can get behind a war with NATO. 40% of the Russian public has relatives in Ukraine and don't have a big beef with Ukraine. That has led to less than wholehearted support for the war in Ukraine.

Interestingly I was talking last night with someone who recently had a Zoom call with fellow professionals in Ukraine and Russia. The Russian was initially in favor of the war until the Ukrainian made him aware of just what was happening in Ukraine. When he realized what Russia was doing there he was horrified.

On another note, I have been saying from the beginning that Russia can't win this war. Another thought ocuerred to me today. If Russia were to defeat the Ukrainian army and occupy the country, they won't be able to put a puppet in charge because the puppet would have a shelf life measured in minutes as soon as Russia leaves. The Ukrainians would immediately switch to an insurgency and they don't have enough troops to win.

On top of that, the rest of the world would likely just keep most or all the sanctions in place until Russia withdraws and most likely until Russia agrees to restore the 2013 borders for Ukraine. Russia can't take the financial bleed for very long.

The only question as this point is how badly Russia is going to lose.

Unfortunately Ukraine is going to continue to get trashed until Russia runs out of resources.

You are attributing the Western Intelligence agencies success in understanding Putin's plans to leaks in Russia, humans. It might not be. The same result could be achieved with signals/hacking and very low level human verification. Just caution on assumptions. The

My partner said she read it was a prisoner swap, but it's good the mayor is free.

This was on a sidebar from the same article:
Putin shambles: Russian forces flattened as footage shows military column wiped out

The vehicles have the Z in a box and the images are supposedly from Kharkhiv. The terrain is snowy, so it probably is in the north. This is significant because the Z in a box is what was used for vehicles based in Crimea at the beginning of the war. It appears the Russians have shifted at least some vehicles from the southern theater to the north.

This is a supply convoy. I've suspected the tempo in the south has decreased because they are shifting supply to the north and this convoy are probably from a supply battalion shifted north to try and replace the heavy losses in supply vehicles they've had in the north. The Russians have a precious few supply battalions.

You have no idea when the convoy was attacked. It could have been the one attacked and reported on 3 weeks ago. Many many times I've seen the same vehicles destroyed on a road video'd by different people and posted on different days...all proclaiming an attack or something significant seized. As bad as fighter pilots claiming kills in WWII, if either sides had been accurate both air forces would have been destroyed several times over. Or better yet, air force claims of casualties on ground attacks.

 

[nativewolf]

Just a bit of levity:

Donald Trump Jr. Wants His Father To Attend NATO Summit Instead of Biden

Ok...it is funny. Then it is funny because Jr has no life. What a complete and utter loser.

 

[nativewolf]

Not unexpected, will take years for the pipelines but India’s deal will take the edge off for Putin.

Russia turns east: Three countries undermine West sanction with Putin

AS WESTERN powers come down hard on Russian energy, Putin has turned to countries in Asia to sell his oil and gas.

www.express.co.uk

Pipeline crossing where? Not reading it. Wherever it is they will have issues with India.

 

[nativewolf]

Russian Crackdown Intensifies as Thousands Arrested for Protesting War

We speak to Russian activist and historian Ilya Budraitskis after over 5,000 antiwar protesters were detained on Sunday as part of a sweeping crackdown on Russian civil society and the media. Activists in Russia are relying on alternative outlets such as social media for information, as the...

www.democracynow.org

Just reminding us all of the sad terrible tragedy that awaits future generations in Russia.

 

[Xdama]

Pipeline crossing where? Not reading it. Wherever it is they will have issues with India

China​

Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are looking to increase their gas trade exponentially with the development of three gas pipelines that will flow from Russia to China.

Russia and China already have a gas pipeline in place- The Power of Siberia pipeline.
China is the world’s fastest-growing gas market, with the nation’s total natural gas imports increasing by 19.9 percent in the past year, with pipeline gas imports rising more than 22 percent year on year.

In the past year, China's natural gas imports from Russia rose by a massive 50.5 percent, as the two countries deepen ties.

According to experts, the two countries have also made plans for two more pipelines, the Power of Siberia 2 and the Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok pipeline.

It’s all there in the article

 

[CHGolferJim]

K. Collins of CNN and others are reporting that Biden and Xi will talk tomorrow. Hopefully, something specific and constructive has already been accomplished by staffers to be announced after the call.

 

[Xdama]

Robin Horsfall on LinkedIn: Nuclear War? ‘A briefcase, known as the Cheget, is kept close to… | 302 comments

Nuclear War? ‘A briefcase, known as the Cheget, is kept close to president Putin and links him to the control network of Russia's nuclear forces. The Cheget… | 302 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

Sounds pretty similar to the US setup (as I understand it anyway)

 

[wdolson]

Not unexpected, will take years for the pipelines but India’s deal will take the edge off for Putin.

Russia turns east: Three countries undermine West sanction with Putin

AS WESTERN powers come down hard on Russian energy, Putin has turned to countries in Asia to sell his oil and gas.

www.express.co.uk

How will they get it there? They will have to go over the Himalayas and go through some other countries or a low altitude route will have to go around via China and Myanmar. To the west is Pakistan which I think is not going to happen.

I see China is going to take more Russian gas too.

Though building new pipelines is going to take time to complete and Russia doesn't have that much time before the economy implodes.

You are attributing the Western Intelligence agencies success in understanding Putin's plans to leaks in Russia, humans. It might not be. The same result could be achieved with signals/hacking and very low level human verification. Just caution on assumptions. The

You have no idea when the convoy was attacked. It could have been the one attacked and reported on 3 weeks ago. Many many times I've seen the same vehicles destroyed on a road video'd by different people and posted on different days...all proclaiming an attack or something significant seized. As bad as fighter pilots claiming kills in WWII, if either sides had been accurate both air forces would have been destroyed several times over. Or better yet, air force claims of casualties on ground attacks.

I've seen stories that the US got the plans for the invasion from someone inside the Kremlin. For some of the early successes in the war i also read that someone in the FSB was passing convoy routing to the Ukrainians. Though they are obviously getting information from other sources too and the inside source may have gone quiet.

I've seen a lot of footage of the aftermaths of convoy attacks and I have seen the same one from different angles. I haven't seen this one before, but that's not important. The letters on the vehicles denote the theater or type of unit. The plain Z are the regular army forces that launched in the north. The Z in a box are the regular army units that launched from Crimea. Reportedly this is from near Kharkhiv and the snow on the ground and general ground condition is more indicative of the north than the south of the country.

The Russians have shifted at least one Material Transport Battalion, or part of one from the southern theater to the north. These are normally integrated into Material-Technical Support Brigades which have 2 Transport Battalions with a number of specialty vehicles like maintenance and engineering support. The entire Russian army has only 10 Material-Technical Support Brigades to cover the entire country, much less support than most armies built with mobility in mind.

The Ukrainians have been targeting supply vehicles because they are easy targets, but also they know the Russians started the war with a shortage of trucks. They have probably stripped most of the Transport Brigades from most of the Military Districts even before the war started. Quite a few trucks are effectivly lost in the convoy to nowhere NW of Kyiv.

I think Putin is still stuck in tunnel vision where he thinks that somehow the Ukrainians will lay down their arms and stop fighting if Kyiv is captured and Zalensky killed. So the Russians are focused on the push for Kyiv. This is evidence they are taking resources from the southern theater to support the supply build up which is what I suspected was happening.

 

[wdolson]

Robin Horsfall on LinkedIn: Nuclear War? ‘A briefcase, known as the Cheget, is kept close to… | 302 comments

Nuclear War? ‘A briefcase, known as the Cheget, is kept close to president Putin and links him to the control network of Russia's nuclear forces. The Cheget… | 302 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

Sounds pretty similar to the US setup (as I understand it anyway)

I can't find it right now, but the Russians have an extra layer or two over the American setup, but it's similar. I would not be surprised if the top generals who would be making the final call in Russia have met and agreed that they would only launch if the legal criteria was met. ie they won't let Putin start nuking everything to toss the game board on the floor and storm out of the room because he's losing.

Putin seems obsessed with truly "making Russia great again" (unlike the similar slogan in the US which was just a slogan). It appears he sees himself as a modern Tzar and one with Russia. He got tunnel vision and thought this war was going to bring Ukraine back into the fold and be another piece in re-establishing the Russian empire at its peak. To the Muscovites the Ukrainians were inferior people, but Ukraine was economically very good for the Russian empire.

In any case because he may feel he and Russia are one and the same, he will probably not use nukes because he doesn't want to see Russia destroyed in the counter attack. As I've postulated in the last week, the Russian nuclear arsenal may no longer work. Things are so corrupt somebody may have been pocketing the money for maintenance and saying it was done. At least some people in the high command may know this. They don't want the world to know the dirty secret that they have a bunch of warheads that are no better than dirty bombs.

At least possible, but not certain.

 

[Xdama]

Not sure if this is true but made me chuckle

 

[Rarity]

US has lower overall debt levels than most major economies.

View attachment 781516

That graph is ancient. It is different now.

 

[CitizenKane]

Russian Crackdown Intensifies as Thousands Arrested for Protesting War

We speak to Russian activist and historian Ilya Budraitskis after over 5,000 antiwar protesters were detained on Sunday as part of a sweeping crackdown on Russian civil society and the media. Activists in Russia are relying on alternative outlets such as social media for information, as the...

www.democracynow.org

Just reminding us all of the sad terrible tragedy that awaits future generations in Russia.

Maybe, maybe not. If indeed most young people are against the dictator, then I think he will fall. Just a few years before the Berlin wall fell, that too seemed impossible.

 

[Xdama]

o the Muscovites the Ukrainians were inferior people

To Muscovites the rest of Russia are inferior according to my wife. She also reckons there’s only 2 distinct accents in Russia, Muscovite then the rest (note I said distinct).

How will they get it there? They will have to go over the Himalayas and go through some other countries or a low altitude route will have to go around via China and Myanmar. To the west is Pakistan which I think is not going to happen.

"The signing of a new oil supply contract confirms the strategic nature of the long-term partnership between Rosneft and Indian Oil," Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said, according to a company statement.

Russia's largest crude producer said it has agreed to a contract to ship up to 2 million mt, or around 14.66 mil barrels, of crude by the end of 2022. Deliveries will be shipped through the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, the company said.”

 

[jbcarioca]

Ruble would certainly crash if she left.

It already has, but they did manage the auction this week, so immediate mass bank failures deferred.
HAs for FX, managing the interest payment did buy a little time too.
Perhaps weirdly, the biggest financial issue right now is domestic liquidity, not FX. That, by itself, shows how dire the situation actually is now.
Given also the military logistics and staffing my personal guess is that they have less than ten days until general military collapse for Russian Military.
What will happen before then? What will happen then?
Nobody really knows. The only remotely applicable precedents are 75-80 years old. They were not comparable, really.
Such a situation has usually had the demise of the principle architect, by own or other hands.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Perhaps weirdly, the biggest financial issue right now is domestic liquidity, not FX. That, by itself, shows how dire the situation actually is now.
Given also the military logistics and staffing my personal guess is that they have less than ten days until general military collapse for Russian Military.

On its face such a rapid collapse seems far fetched. Can you clarify what you mean by general military collapse and what (likely) facts support your prediction? Does collapse mean military personnel supporting their strategic nuclear weapon sites don't show up for work in 2 weeks?

 

[Artful Dodger]

On its face such a rapid collapse seems far fetched. Can you clarify what you mean by general military collapse and what (likely) facts support your prediction? Does collapse mean military personnel supporting their strategic nuclear weapon sites don't show up for work in 2 weeks?

Don't be frightened by Putin's blustering. If that s.o.b. so much as twitches, we're going to MOP his *ss out the bunker.

 

[AudubonB]

Not sure if this is true but made me chuckle


View attachment 782055

I ran down that photo late last week and at best, it appears the vehicles (NOT “neighboring apartments” as some articles claimed) throwing that beam had it illuminated for mere seconds. Long enough, though, to get the photograph!

 

[nativewolf]

China​

Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are looking to increase their gas trade exponentially with the development of three gas pipelines that will flow from Russia to China.

Russia and China already have a gas pipeline in place- The Power of Siberia pipeline.
China is the world’s fastest-growing gas market, with the nation’s total natural gas imports increasing by 19.9 percent in the past year, with pipeline gas imports rising more than 22 percent year on year.

In the past year, China's natural gas imports from Russia rose by a massive 50.5 percent, as the two countries deepen ties.

According to experts, the two countries have also made plans for two more pipelines, the Power of Siberia 2 and the Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok pipeline.

It’s all there in the article

Oh...it's you. please this is meaningless and has nothing to do with buying oil. It's a much less expensive gas pipeline. That is gas, goes to China. Going from the oil fields of the Urals to India is a whole other ball of wax. Gazprom is worth $250 million, that tells you how important the gas pipeline is, not without value just ...small change.

 

[nativewolf]

It already has, but they did manage the auction this week, so immediate mass bank failures deferred.
HAs for FX, managing the interest payment did buy a little time too.
Perhaps weirdly, the biggest financial issue right now is domestic liquidity, not FX. That, by itself, shows how dire the situation actually is now.
Given also the military logistics and staffing my personal guess is that they have less than ten days until general military collapse for Russian Military.
What will happen before then? What will happen then?
Nobody really knows. The only remotely applicable precedents are 75-80 years old. They were not comparable, really.
Such a situation has usually had the demise of the principle architect, by own or other hands.

Old curse/proverbs apply " May you live in interesting times" Well, it is interesting. I hope for, the sake of Ukrainians and Russians, that someone deals with Putin sooner rather than later.

You had mentioned the brain drain last week and that certainly caught the attention of the worlds press as well. Lots of articles about it and the discrimination in Estonia/ Georgia etc No one wants a Russian guest in a airbnb for instance.