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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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We're not even a month into the latest sanctions. The pain has just begun for the Ruble and the Russian economy more largely. I feel badly for those Russians who don't support this war, but they aren't the ones whose homes are being bombed.

The Russian government is trying their best to prop things up, their economy on the surface will look “operable,” that is until the dikes break. Anyone can go on YouTube or social media and see how Russian young’s 20s-30s are leaving their country in droves, which caused Putin to lashed out calling them “traitors” on television. Foreigners in Russia are also packing their bags, Russian tourists are refusing to go home while their own relatives are urging them to stay away form Russia (because it’s not safe). YouTubers, tiktokers and Instagram influencers are publicly crying in pain due to loss of revenues from corporate marketing. PayPal has also suspended operations, which means anyone getting paid by foreign companies via PayPal has had their finances frozen. Scrambling to keep things in order Russia has forced western investors from selling shares on their stock market, they are also forcing a no shorting rule, and finally, their government is spending money to buy stocks in order to prop up the market. With $300 billion to fianance a losing war, pay employees, produce munitions and buying stocks Russia is a ticking time bomb. Things on the surface looks functional, but underneath their government is in pain, their economy will collapse eventually. Anyone who thinks the sanctions aren’t working needs to get their brains checked. Even China has called US sanctions unreasonable. Just how unreasonable is it? The US sanctions are $1.2 trillion in value, the entire Russian GDP is only $1.4 trillion. People need to realize the gravity of this sanction as it slowly creeps into the Russian economy, but once this baby starts rolling and Russians use up their savings, it’ll be nuclear. Even China has its tail between its legs, as they realize “money talks”, and in this case BS walks. The US and it’s allies are not BSing around. I’m thankful to have a sane president sitting in office right now, this type of economic war/sanction is the new type of war every western nation within NATO should utilize to its full advantage going forward.
 
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Marx and Engel definitely didn't do the world any favors. But the world has had dictators before Marx.
A big fan of your work on Ukraine/Russia. This is the first time I would disagree. Marx and Engels didn’t do the west any favors, I do think, that his writing did contribute to a morphing of societies that were just plain brutal to the the proletariats (lower class). Just look at how bad the state of Chinese societies were hundreds of years ago, when the emperor/mandarins were largely in charge of their people’s economic welfare (their system was rife with corruption). Today, China is the 2nd most successful economy and will be the most powerful one day if they play their cards right. This is thanks to the morphing of Marxism to communism, then socialism. Today China is a mixture of social/capitalism. If we take Marx at face value, it’s a failure, but if we see how China has progressed it’s a win for their society (this is why Mao remains to be their “George Washington”). As far as human rights issues, that will eventually come with the right leadership within China. Same goes with Russia, getting rid of the Czar and their corrupted royals were much needed to propel their economy and middle/lower class forward, the only way to do that back then was Marxism, nothing else gave them a chance, democracy was killed off by the Czars and emperors, they needed a doctrine, a Bible, a Moses to light a fire underneath their feet to change things up, that came in the form of Marxism. For their time, it was the only option available. To us, the West “Marxism” is Hitler, to them, back then for their circumstance it was to be their savior. Put ourselves in their feet, where 90% of the population was dirt poor, disrespected daily, mistreated by the very people in charge and thrown into wars to be cannon fodders, relatives/friends dying off for no reason, bosses taking advantage of citizens all around everyday, 24/7 365 days a year non stop harassment…. Poverty without an end in sight, I’m not talking about the same 3rd world poverty today, this is real 5th world poverty on steroids affecting up to 90% of the population under which their governments failed the masses in every way possible. Russian officers would call their own soldiers “peasants,” as if their economic conditions made their lives worthless. The Emperors and Czars back then makes Putin look like a nice little Boy Scout. If any of us here were in their shoes, would we sit around another 1,000 years and wait for “democracy” to come and save you? Or would you take matters into your own hands and hope for better days? Marxism would have never succeeded if economic conditions weren’t “unbearable.”

For the west, we were fortunate to be able to escape poverty and dictators in Britain/Europe by sailing to America, in that process we killed off the Indian population to create the system we have today. Even democracy comes at a huge cost to “genocide” of the Indian population. Sure Marxism was ruthless, but life back then was just plain ruthless to a much larger population in countries that had to adopt it. I’m thankful we created a new country from scratch in the US, but even then, democracy in the west took the form of forced labor in slavery and it took a civil war to get us out. There are imperfections in every system, our circumstances are much different than what Europe went through. From my angle, I cannot criticize those back then for trying to change their lives in a corrupt system.
 
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A big fan of your work on Ukraine/Russia. This is the first time I would disagree. Marx and Engels didn’t do the west any favors, I do think, that his writing did contribute to a morphing of societies that were just plain brutal to the the proletariats (lower class). Just look at how bad the state of Chinese societies were hundreds of years ago, when the emperor/mandarins were largely in charge of their people’s economic welfare (their system was rife with corruption). Today, China is the 2nd most successful economy and will be the most powerful one day if they play their cards right. This is thanks to the morphing of Marxism to communism, then socialism. Today China is a mixture of social/capitalism. If we take Marx at face value, it’s a failure, but if we see how China has progressed it’s a win for their society (this is why Mao remains to be their “George Washington”). As far as human rights issues, that will eventually come with the right leadership within China. Same goes with Russia, getting rid of the Czar and their corrupted royals were much needed to propel their economy and middle/lower class forward, the only way to do that back then was Marxism, nothing else gave them a chance, democracy was killed off by the Czars and emperors, they needed a doctrine, a Bible, a Moses to light a fire underneath their feet to change things up, that came in the form of Marxism. For their time, it was the only option available. To us, the West “Marxism” is Hitler, to them, back then for their circumstance it was to be their savior. Put ourselves in their feet, where 90% of the population was dirt poor, disrespected daily, mistreated by the very people in charge and thrown into wars to be cannon fodders, relatives/friends dying off for no reason, bosses taking advantage of citizens all around everyday, 24/7 365 days a year non stop harassment…. Poverty without an end in sight, I’m not talking about the same poverty 3rd world poverty today, this so real 5th world poverty on steroids affecting up to 90% of the population under which their governments failed the masses. The Emperors and Czars back then makes Putin look like a Boy Scout and an altar boy on weekends.
China's recent success was almost solely due to capitalism and abandoning most communist ideals. I don't think there was any "Marxist" policy that contributed to China's current economy. When they were undergoing that full blown, it instead resulted in famine.
 
Interesting video. I downloaded the cc and skimmed it. Not sure if link works, but will try.
I'm still trying to understand if I learned more about Russian culture of Finnish perspective. Some traditional Finn jokes fit well to give perspective on a few traditional Russian jokes, to the extent that I understand either in translation. One thing both share is a generational tendency to avoid verbosity.
I don't claim to understand either very well, and neither work nor social interactions have made me imagine I really understood.

The traditional Western idea that the Chinese are inscrutable does not well fare with Northern Europe. Despite that pre-upheaval Russia has been delightful for visiting Westerners, while Helsinki, Tallinn and Saint Petersburg are three of my favorite cities.

This video was very useful, to me especially because it carefully evaluated the most formational parts of Russian linguistic development. After listing to it all the second time I have realized some crucial subtleties I have long needed to know but did not. It also is useful in understanding the probable components of forecasting regime change.

By his reckoning it seems likely Mr. Putin is in his last days.
 
I'm still trying to understand if I learned more about Russian culture of Finnish perspective. Some traditional Finn jokes fit well to give perspective on a few traditional Russian jokes, to the extent that I understand either in translation. One thing both share is a generational tendency to avoid verbosity.
I don't claim to understand either very well, and neither work nor social interactions have made me imagine I really understood.

The traditional Western idea that the Chinese are inscrutable does not well fare with Northern Europe. Despite that pre-upheaval Russia has been delightful for visiting Westerners, while Helsinki, Tallinn and Saint Petersburg are three of my favorite cities.

This video was very useful, to me especially because it carefully evaluated the most formational parts of Russian linguistic development. After listing to it all the second time I have realized some crucial subtleties I have long needed to know but did not. It also is useful in understanding the probable components of forecasting regime change.

By his reckoning it seems likely Mr. Putin is in his last days.
That video is from 2018. Colonel Martti J Kari knows his stuff.

Here's a more recent interview, march 9th. You can chance subtitles to english.

In general - now this is a really broad generalisation - Finns do feel some adversary towards Russians. And it's not surprising, there's a lot of history of shady businesses, drugs, prostitution, money laundering run in Finland by Russians. Even today. Now of course there are honest, hard-working russian immigrants as well - but they don't stand out like the criminals do.

Here's a story of a russian "business" ran in Finland 1996-2002 (use google translate)
 
I'm still trying to understand if I learned more about Russian culture of Finnish perspective. Some traditional Finn jokes fit well to give perspective on a few traditional Russian jokes, to the extent that I understand either in translation. One thing both share is a generational tendency to avoid verbosity.
I don't claim to understand either very well, and neither work nor social interactions have made me imagine I really understood.

The traditional Western idea that the Chinese are inscrutable does not well fare with Northern Europe. Despite that pre-upheaval Russia has been delightful for visiting Westerners, while Helsinki, Tallinn and Saint Petersburg are three of my favorite cities.

This video was very useful, to me especially because it carefully evaluated the most formational parts of Russian linguistic development. After listing to it all the second time I have realized some crucial subtleties I have long needed to know but did not. It also is useful in understanding the probable components of forecasting regime change.

By his reckoning it seems likely Mr. Putin is in his last days.
I found it interesting, I find your perspective on that interesting as well:)
 
In general - now this is a really broad generalisation - Finns do feel some adversary towards Russians. And it's not surprising, there's a lot of history of shady businesses, drugs, prostitution, money laundering run in Finland by Russians. Even today. Now of course there are honest, hard-working russian immigrants as well - but they don't stand out like the criminals do.
Don't forget Talvisota, the Winter War, as well as the "Finlandization", now an actual noun; Finns will not forget those anytime soon. Makes you wonder how Ukrainians will feel about Russia even in 75 years...
 
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China's recent success was almost solely due to capitalism and abandoning most communist ideals. I don't think there was any "Marxist" policy that contributed to China's current economy. When they were undergoing that full blown, it instead resulted in famine.

I don’t disagree with your assessment, I do think that China could not have immediately jumped into capitalism and flourished when the British were forcing opium down their throats while buying off mandarins via the Opium Wars (the cards were simply stacked against them). China’s success took careful maneuverabilities to get itself here, implementing state backed businesses and financing (this could not be achieved through pure capitalism), getting rid of patent laws (again can’t be done with capitalism), coercion and leaving many masses of farmers/peasants behind while investing in the right industries.

Could they have achieved this through pure capitalism? I don’t think so, not even Britain Germany or any Western Country outside the US could achieved what China has done. They were able to salvage communism and turned their country around when things were falling apart (this in itself is an attribution to their political system). All these things sound terrible at first glance, but numbers don’t lie, their system is working well for China.

As for capitalism, the biggest downside to this system is that it constantly needs to expand, find new markets to enforce cheap labor. When costs rise, find another country force cheap labor, then rinse and repeat. It keeps us consumers happy and prices low in the west so we can enjoy the good life and save for vacations, just how far does capitalism need to expand to keep this system going so we can buy cheap shoes/Merchandise to afford our lifestyle? if people are struggling in the west today due to high costs of gasoline, imagine how much more we would struggle when shoes/food/merchandise virtually costs 50% more or 3x as high to produce at home? Capitalism is about enjoying the good life while depending on others to produce for us… sometimes through child labor, unsafe working conditions, etc. you know, things we don’t want to see here in the US but won’t complain when others enforce it. It feels nice to be at the top in a capitalist society, but look down below and we’ll see all kinds of issues. This is where China has beaten the odds, through creating its own form of socialism and combine it with capitalism. Maybe the west is a bit threatened by China, as the old adage goes: game recognizes game. Unless Xi screws it up like Putin, I fully expect China to surpass us economically one day, and in the process I fully expect the economic conditions for China to improve amongst their citizens. A better life is what we all seek, maybe one day China will have its own form of democracy when it becomes the biggest super power in the world. By then, the millions of lives lost during the cultural revolution would be a moot point as billions upon billions of Chinese will get to the enjoy the good life for the next 10,000 years. This is much better than giving it all to the emperors, mandarins or oligarchs.
 
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The Russian government is trying their best to prop things up, their economy on the surface will look “operable,” that is until the dikes break. Anyone can go on YouTube or social media and see how Russian young’s 20s-30s are leaving their country in droves, which caused Putin to lashed out calling them “traitors” on television. Foreigners in Russia are also packing their bags, Russian tourists are refusing to go home while their own relatives are urging them to stay away form Russia (because it’s not safe). YouTubers, tiktokers and Instagram influencers are publicly crying in pain due to loss of revenues from corporate marketing. PayPal has also suspended operations, which means anyone getting paid by foreign companies via PayPal has had their finances frozen. Scrambling to keep things in order Russia has forced western investors from selling shares on their stock market, they are also forcing a no shorting rule, and finally, their government is spending money to buy stocks in order to prop up the market. With $300 billion to fianance a losing war, pay employees, produce munitions and buying stocks Russia is a ticking time bomb. Things on the surface looks functional, but underneath their government is in pain, their economy will collapse eventually. Anyone who thinks the sanctions aren’t working needs to get their brains checked. Even China has called US sanctions unreasonable. Just how unreasonable is it? The US sanctions are $1.2 trillion in value, the entire Russian GDP is only $1.4 trillion. People need to realize the gravity of this sanction as it slowly creeps into the Russian economy, but once this baby starts rolling and Russians use up their savings, it’ll be nuclear. Even China has its tail between its legs, as they realize “money talks”, and in this case BS walks. The US and it’s allies are not BSing around. I’m thankful to have a sane president sitting in office right now, this type of economic war/sanction is the new type of war every western nation within NATO should utilize to its full advantage going forward.
There is room to do more on sanctions.

For example one Russian bank still has access to Swift.

The delays are partially countries like Germany determining how to survive without Russian gas.

But we have also seen a very public "naming and shaming" of any western companies still doing business in Russia, that list is dwindling as public pressure has an effect and companies fear a consumer backlash.

For things like airline, vehicle and oil well maintenance, there is an inventory of parts which gradually dwindles.

Putting the "Humpty Dumpty" Russian economy back together after the war is a very big challenge, and a challenge that is getting bigger each day,

Sanctions are so effective that any area where the West can stretch and do a bit more is very effective. IMO keep piling on, more now means a faster end to the war, and less pain for all later on,
 
Might be paywalled - The NYT
Not new info, but important because of who she is and what she describes as what the Russians have done in the past and will do again if not stopped decisively. I hope this is published far and wide in many different publications regardless of perceived political ideology.

I’m the Prime Minister of Estonia. Putin Can’t Think He’s Won This War.

This highlights something I first noticed in the 1990s when the Balkans were at war: most Europeans have a zero tolerance for war on their continent. European governments and people will decry war in the Middle East or Africa, but when it comes too close, a "never again" attitude kicks in and they do everything they can to stop it in such a way that it won't come back.

The NATO peacekeeping mission to the Balkans was unprecedented up to that time and outside the NATO charter. If Russia didn't have nuclear weapons, probably most NATO countries would probably be serious about going into Ukraine.

A big fan of your work on Ukraine/Russia. This is the first time I would disagree. Marx and Engels didn’t do the west any favors, I do think, that his writing did contribute to a morphing of societies that were just plain brutal to the the proletariats (lower class). Just look at how bad the state of Chinese societies were hundreds of years ago, when the emperor/mandarins were largely in charge of their people’s economic welfare (their system was rife with corruption). Today, China is the 2nd most successful economy and will be the most powerful one day if they play their cards right. This is thanks to the morphing of Marxism to communism, then socialism. Today China is a mixture of social/capitalism. If we take Marx at face value, it’s a failure, but if we see how China has progressed it’s a win for their society (this is why Mao remains to be their “George Washington”). As far as human rights issues, that will eventually come with the right leadership within China. Same goes with Russia, getting rid of the Czar and their corrupted royals were much needed to propel their economy and middle/lower class forward, the only way to do that back then was Marxism, nothing else gave them a chance, democracy was killed off by the Czars and emperors, they needed a doctrine, a Bible, a Moses to light a fire underneath their feet to change things up, that came in the form of Marxism. For their time, it was the only option available. To us, the West “Marxism” is Hitler, to them, back then for their circumstance it was to be their savior. Put ourselves in their feet, where 90% of the population was dirt poor, disrespected daily, mistreated by the very people in charge and thrown into wars to be cannon fodders, relatives/friends dying off for no reason, bosses taking advantage of citizens all around everyday, 24/7 365 days a year non stop harassment…. Poverty without an end in sight, I’m not talking about the same 3rd world poverty today, this is real 5th world poverty on steroids affecting up to 90% of the population under which their governments failed the masses in every way possible. Russian officers would call their own soldiers “peasants,” as if their economic conditions made their lives worthless. The Emperors and Czars back then makes Putin look like a nice little Boy Scout. If any of us here were in their shoes, would we sit around another 1,000 years and wait for “democracy” to come and save you? Or would you take matters into your own hands and hope for better days? Marxism would have never succeeded if economic conditions weren’t “unbearable.”

For the west, we were fortunate to be able to escape poverty and dictators in Britain/Europe by sailing to America, in that process we killed off the Indian population to create the system we have today. Even democracy comes at a huge cost to “genocide” of the Indian population. Sure Marxism was ruthless, but life back then was just plain ruthless to a much larger population in countries that had to adopt it. I’m thankful we created a new country from scratch in the US, but even then, democracy in the west took the form of forced labor in slavery and it took a civil war to get us out. There are imperfections in every system, our circumstances are much different than what Europe went through. From my angle, I cannot criticize those back then for trying to change their lives in a corrupt system.

Good points, though how communism was implemented in the end didn't really look all that much like what Marx and Engle envisioned. Strip away the communist rhetoric and most communist governments look like a bit more formalized dictatorship like we've seen in a lot of places. But the communist talking points were a vehicle to industrialize a number of countries that were stuck in a pre-industrialized state. Though the path Taiwan and South Korea took to full industrialization was better for the people both in the process and in the long run than the way communists did it.

This is exactly how I feel and I don't see how it can be seen another way.


No more money should be allowed to enter into Russia while the massacre continues.

There is a difference between "should" and "can". Putin has been on a campaign for decades to get Europe so economically entangled in Russian oil and gas that they couldn't afford to go to war with Russia. Not that Europe wanted to, but that's the Russian mindset: somebody is always wanting to invade and take over.

Dismantling the economic ties is going to take time. Just shutting off the Russian oil and gas would cause chaos in Europe. The Europeans are moving fast. At this point they are very motivated to stop buying Russian fossil fuels.

Don't forget Talvisota, the Winter War, as well as the "Finlandization", now an actual noun; Finns will not forget those anytime soon. Makes you wonder how Ukrainians will feel about Russia even in 75 years...

Russia and Ukraine have been in a dance with each other for centuries. Before the Golden Horde Kyiv was the center of the Russian/Ukrainian world. After Kyiv was sacked the Muscovites became predominant and have been ever since.

Richard Engel of NBC news was in Mariopol in the early days of the war. He said that before the war a lot of eastern Ukraine was mildly pro-Russian, but that evaporated the day Russia invaded. They are now rabidly anti-Russian.

Ukraine always looked westward more than Russia did, but they kept coming back to Moscow. This war has completely shattered the Russia-Ukraine connection and Ukraine will now be a full member of the European community for the foreseeable future.

With all the atrocities Russia is committing there is going to be little appetite in many parts of the world to lift the sanctions all that quickly after the war is over. Russia could end up with a lost century if their government hangs together. Another possibility is a break up of Russia with a lot of the non-Rus ethnics leaving and forming their own countries. Many of those countries would have a lot of resources to sell on the world market.

I don’t disagree with your assessment, I do think that China could not have immediately jumped into capitalism and flourished when the British were forcing opium down their throats while buying off mandarins via the Opium Wars (the cards were simply stacked against them). China’s success took careful maneuverabilities to get itself here, implementing state backed businesses and financing (this could not be achieved through pure capitalism), getting rid of patent laws (again can’t be done with capitalism), coercion and leaving many masses of farmers/peasants behind while investing in the right industries.

Could they have achieved this through pure capitalism? I don’t think so, not even Britain Germany or any Western Country outside the US could achieved what China has done. They were able to salvage communism and turned their country around when things were falling apart (this in itself is an attribution to their political system). All these things sound terrible at first glance, but numbers don’t lie, their system is working well for China.

As for capitalism, the biggest downside to this system is that it constantly needs to expand, find new markets to enforce cheap labor. When costs rise, find another country force cheap labor, then rinse and repeat. It keeps us consumers happy and prices low in the west so we can enjoy the good life and save for vacations, just how far does capitalism need to expand to keep this system going so we can buy cheap shoes/Merchandise to afford our lifestyle? if people are struggling in the west today due to high costs of gasoline, imagine how much more we would struggle when shoes/food/merchandise virtually costs 50% more or 3x as high to produce at home? Capitalism is about enjoying the good life while depending on others to produce for us… sometimes through child labor, unsafe working conditions, etc. you know, things we don’t want to see here in the US but won’t complain when others enforce it. It feels nice to be at the top in a capitalist society, but look down below and we’ll see all kinds of issues. This is where China has beaten the odds, through creating its own form of socialism and combine it with capitalism. Maybe the west is a bit threatened by China, as the old adage goes: game recognizes game. Unless Xi screws it up like Putin, I fully expect China to surpass us economically one day, and in the process I fully expect the economic conditions for China to improve amongst their citizens. A better life is what we all seek, maybe one day China will have its own form of democracy when it becomes the biggest super power in the world. By then, the millions of lives lost during the cultural revolution would be a moot point as billions upon billions of Chinese will get to the enjoy the good life for the next 10,000 years. This is much better than giving it all to the emperors, mandarins or oligarchs.

Ultimately automation is going to be the cheapest labor.
 
A moving story … always in awe of such people who can take in and help refugees.

Very moving. Have tears in my eyes. We hosted Cambodian refugee family that stayed with us while I growing up. I was young. Reading that series reminds me of how kids just play. No language barrier. Just happy to be safe and have fun. Parents were always wondering why we would help them. Can't imagine the sights and sounds they endured. Sometimes you just act. Don't think to help others. You just do.
 
I don’t disagree with your assessment, I do think that China could not have immediately jumped into capitalism and flourished when the British were forcing opium down their throats while buying off mandarins via the Opium Wars (the cards were simply stacked against them). China’s success took careful maneuverabilities to get itself here, implementing state backed businesses and financing (this could not be achieved through pure capitalism), getting rid of patent laws (again can’t be done with capitalism), coercion and leaving many masses of farmers/peasants behind while investing in the right industries.

Could they have achieved this through pure capitalism? I don’t think so, not even Britain Germany or any Western Country outside the US could achieved what China has done. They were able to salvage communism and turned their country around when things were falling apart (this in itself is an attribution to their political system). All these things sound terrible at first glance, but numbers don’t lie, their system is working well for China.

As for capitalism, the biggest downside to this system is that it constantly needs to expand, find new markets to enforce cheap labor. When costs rise, find another country force cheap labor, then rinse and repeat. It keeps us consumers happy and prices low in the west so we can enjoy the good life and save for vacations, just how far does capitalism need to expand to keep this system going so we can buy cheap shoes/Merchandise to afford our lifestyle? if people are struggling in the west today due to high costs of gasoline, imagine how much more we would struggle when shoes/food/merchandise virtually costs 50% more or 3x as high to produce at home? Capitalism is about enjoying the good life while depending on others to produce for us… sometimes through child labor, unsafe working conditions, etc. you know, things we don’t want to see here in the US but won’t complain when others enforce it. It feels nice to be at the top in a capitalist society, but look down below and we’ll see all kinds of issues. This is where China has beaten the odds, through creating its own form of socialism and combine it with capitalism. Maybe the west is a bit threatened by China, as the old adage goes: game recognizes game. Unless Xi screws it up like Putin, I fully expect China to surpass us economically one day, and in the process I fully expect the economic conditions for China to improve amongst their citizens. A better life is what we all seek, maybe one day China will have its own form of democracy when it becomes the biggest super power in the world. By then, the millions of lives lost during the cultural revolution would be a moot point as billions upon billions of Chinese will get to the enjoy the good life for the next 10,000 years. This is much better than giving it all to the emperors, mandarins or oligarchs.
What you describe that led to China's success is capitalism + socialism (which allows planned economies). China is pretty much "communist" in name only now after Deng Xiaoping. In communism, there is supposed to be no class system, everyone is supposed to earn the same wages regardless of ability/contribution, government distribution of resources based on need (not ability/contribution) and no privatization of industry/production. That was all thrown out the window, which led to China's success. If China continued the old communist ways, I don't see them having a booming economy.

You can compare to Taiwan, which despite having much less resources, boomed, while mainland China was stagnating under older policies.
 
This video is interesting as it gives some idea of how the war is currently being fought.


1. Ukrainian troops in front trenches. Russian scouts advance.
2. At some point Ukrainians identify and fire on Russians,
3. Ukrainians - get ready to retreat as artillery bombardment is coming.
4. Ukrainians eventually fully retreat to underground bunker.
5. Russians can't advance into an area when it is being bombarded by their artillery.
6. Ukrainians suffer minimal losses, they possibly hit some Russian scouts,
7. Key point - Russia expends a lot of artillery for minimal gain.

If this is going on all day every day in multiple locations, the logistics and economics of expending that much artillery for so little gain are challenging.,

When Ukrainians scout, they probably scout at night with night vision, Russians may or may not have an suitable underground bunker.

Seems to me attacking is hard for either side, but Ukrainians have a slight advantage.