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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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They can just bomb large areas like they did in Mariupol, given apparently they care nothing about civilian casualties or committing war crimes. From the other article I linked, the reason they have been able to do that largely unopposed in southern Ukraine is because Ukraine does not have their mid/high altitude air defenses there (instead have them to defend key areas like Kyiv and Kharkiv). Russia has been able to adjust their air operations to keep out of the range of MANPADs.
Russian air force action increases despite flood of antiaircraft missiles into Ukraine

You can see from the confirmed list of fixed wing aircraft destroyed or damaged, that other than one or two from mid March, pretty much all of them were from earlier in the war (early March or in February).
Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

Currently they still can't freely fly planes across Ukraine to drop dumb bombs because Ukraine still has those mid to high altitude AA operational, so they have relied on cruise missiles fired from bombers outside Ukraine's airspace (like fired at the Yavoriv training center in western Ukraine).

Note from the report on the Desert Storm operation, a majority of bombs were delivered at 12,000 to 15,000 feet (out of range for MANPADs) because Brig. Gen. John M. Glosson called for it after earlier losses at lower altitudes. This included plenty of unguided munitions. The report on page 121 said for targets where only unguided MK-84 bombs were used, F16s successfully destroyed the target 52 percent of the time (12/23) and FA18s 43% (3/7). The B-52s exclusively used unguided bombs at high altitude and Page 113 shows 25 fully successful targets vs 35 not fully successful. Unfortunately stats like CEP appears to be classified and redacted.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-97-134.pdf

So unguided munitions can still be used and hit targets a significant percentage of the time from medium to high altitudes out of the range of MANPADs and low altitude AA defenses.

Unguided munitions can be used to hit targets with some precision, but only if the air crews are trained to do it. NATO pilots train for this mission quite a bit. NATO has an annual competition for bombing accuracy. Western pilots get about 200 hours of flight time a year, plus hundreds more in simulators. The Russian pilots get far fewer hours in the air and a lot less simulator time, if at all.

The strategic bombing survey after WW II found that even with the mush slower aircraft of the 1940s bombing accuracy sucked from higher altitude unless the crews were very well trained. Most of the best crews ended up in pathfinder units that marked targets for the less experienced bombers coming behind them.

With the tech available to NATO aircraft today, they can compensate for the higher speeds of modern aircraft but the crews need to be drilled on bombing accuracy to have constant training to keep their skills up. Bombing at high speeds is still difficult, even with high tech bomb sights.

Erik Rudel, the German Stuka ace was a consultant on the development of the A-10. The USAF brass wanted a super sonic plane, but Rudel argued for something even slower than the A-10. For ground attack the slower you go the more accurate you can be. The A-10 was the compromise. And even then the USAF brass kept trying to retire it before it proved successful in the first Gulf War because it wasn't sexy. It had already been relegated to the Air National Guard units.

The Ukrainians do need to get all the SAM systems they can. The fact that the Russians are bombing from higher altitudes in the south are a sign that the Ukrainian air force is not effective now. I was asking about @petit_bateau's argument that when the Ukrainian air force runs out of operation aircraft the Russians would be able to step up their air war.

I think the Russians are doing the most they can with their air force right now regardless of how many Ukrainian MiGs are flying. Like their army, their air force is not as good as it looked on paper. Most Russian aircraft probably have avionics at least a generation behind NATO, if not two and their pilots get so little stick time they don't have the muscle memory to use the systems they do have efficiently.

Area bombing is most effective with large numbers of aircraft attacking on one mission and it doesn't appear the Russian air force is capable of mounting large strike formations. I reposted the article analyzing their capabilities yesterday or the day before.

Area bombing damage looks impressive on the news, but it really is very ineffective at winning wars. Every time it has been used, it did little to help the side using it. The US did it in Vietnam and lost. The Germans did it to London and lost. The RAF did it to Germany and won, but the bombing in each case made the public getting bombed more determined to fight than anything else.

Ukraine is taking tremendous damage to infrastructure and a huge percentage of their population is displaced, but the Russians are not doing enough damage to the Ukrainian's fighting ability to win the war. They are just running up the bill for the aftermath.

I know some countries are thinking about giving the Ukrainians the Russian assets they have seized after the war to help them rebuild. I hope they do. Ukraine is going to need it and Russia doesn't deserve it. I know the Russian people are going to take it on the chin, they didn't have a say in this and don't really know what's happening, but ultimately a country's people ends up owning whatever their government does. Sort of like the wounds from child abuse as an adult, it wasn't your fault, but it's now your responsibility.

In any case, I don't see where the Ukrainian air force is much of a factor now. The eventual grounding of their remaining MiGs is probably not going to make much difference. It would be good if the Ukrainians could get those MiGs from NATO, but I don't see it as critical. Getting SAM systems is more important.
 
Unguided munitions can be used to hit targets with some precision, but only if the air crews are trained to do it. NATO pilots train for this mission quite a bit. NATO has an annual competition for bombing accuracy. Western pilots get about 200 hours of flight time a year, plus hundreds more in simulators. The Russian pilots get far fewer hours in the air and a lot less simulator time, if at all.

The strategic bombing survey after WW II found that even with the mush slower aircraft of the 1940s bombing accuracy sucked from higher altitude unless the crews were very well trained. Most of the best crews ended up in pathfinder units that marked targets for the less experienced bombers coming behind them.

With the tech available to NATO aircraft today, they can compensate for the higher speeds of modern aircraft but the crews need to be drilled on bombing accuracy to have constant training to keep their skills up. Bombing at high speeds is still difficult, even with high tech bomb sights.

Erik Rudel, the German Stuka ace was a consultant on the development of the A-10. The USAF brass wanted a super sonic plane, but Rudel argued for something even slower than the A-10. For ground attack the slower you go the more accurate you can be. The A-10 was the compromise. And even then the USAF brass kept trying to retire it before it proved successful in the first Gulf War because it wasn't sexy. It had already been relegated to the Air National Guard units.

The Ukrainians do need to get all the SAM systems they can. The fact that the Russians are bombing from higher altitudes in the south are a sign that the Ukrainian air force is not effective now. I was asking about @petit_bateau's argument that when the Ukrainian air force runs out of operation aircraft the Russians would be able to step up their air war.

I think the Russians are doing the most they can with their air force right now regardless of how many Ukrainian MiGs are flying. Like their army, their air force is not as good as it looked on paper. Most Russian aircraft probably have avionics at least a generation behind NATO, if not two and their pilots get so little stick time they don't have the muscle memory to use the systems they do have efficiently.

Area bombing is most effective with large numbers of aircraft attacking on one mission and it doesn't appear the Russian air force is capable of mounting large strike formations. I reposted the article analyzing their capabilities yesterday or the day before.

Area bombing damage looks impressive on the news, but it really is very ineffective at winning wars. Every time it has been used, it did little to help the side using it. The US did it in Vietnam and lost. The Germans did it to London and lost. The RAF did it to Germany and won, but the bombing in each case made the public getting bombed more determined to fight than anything else.

Ukraine is taking tremendous damage to infrastructure and a huge percentage of their population is displaced, but the Russians are not doing enough damage to the Ukrainian's fighting ability to win the war. They are just running up the bill for the aftermath.

I know some countries are thinking about giving the Ukrainians the Russian assets they have seized after the war to help them rebuild. I hope they do. Ukraine is going to need it and Russia doesn't deserve it. I know the Russian people are going to take it on the chin, they didn't have a say in this and don't really know what's happening, but ultimately a country's people ends up owning whatever their government does. Sort of like the wounds from child abuse as an adult, it wasn't your fault, but it's now your responsibility.

In any case, I don't see where the Ukrainian air force is much of a factor now. The eventual grounding of their remaining MiGs is probably not going to make much difference. It would be good if the Ukrainians could get those MiGs from NATO, but I don't see it as critical. Getting SAM systems is more important.
It is because of the Ukrainian air force and their medium range SAM systems that the Russian Air force is relatively ineffective at present. Absent those, medium altitude bombing by the Russians in an unopposed environment would regrettably be a fairly relaxed affair. Yes there would be collateral damage but as far as the Russians are concerned that is also the point. Unfortunately the Russians would be getting plenty of practice with dumb bombing at that point. Medium range SAM systems are important as part of the force mix, but also getting aircraft and their resupply missiles into Ukraine hands is important too. It is obvious from the changes in Russian loss rates that they have learnt lessons and we can also see that evidenced in the changes of both tactics and strategy they have adopted. The Russian navy and the Russian Air force have been the faster learners, but their army is also going through its own Darwinian process. Western politicians have to give the Ukraine ALL the tools to do the job otherwise the West will regret the outcome, yet again.
 
Zelensky addressed the Australian parliament, and asked for something very specific:-
Bushmaster | Army.gov.au

Seven variants of the Bushmaster have been purchased: troop, command, mortar, assault pioneer, direct fire weapon, ambulance and air defence. A new general maintenance variant is being created by modifying the assault pioneer variant and an electronic warfare variant is also being developed.

This shows Ukraine has done their homework, worked out what they need and who can supply it, spreading the shopping list across multiple countries.

I hope we come to the party, give them all we can afford to give, and a few more.

For SAMs Ukraine just needs something that stands a chance of shooting down Russian planes at all altitudes, don't give the Russian pilots a risk free ride,
 
Fundraising comes in all shapes and sizes. This one is very unique.
Screenshot_20220331-071326.pngScreenshot_20220331-071336.png
 
Those in Russia who lived through the chaos of the 90s have a bad association with democracy. Losing a war is always chaotic, the US retreat from Afghanistan was one of the more orderly ends. Russia had the double whammy of the government changing and the entire empire breaking up as the cold war ended.

George HW Bush had a plan to send financial aid to the Russians and help them to chart the path to a stable democracy, but he couldn't get support in Congress. Very short sighted on their part.

The Marshall Plan was a very expensive aid package, but it stabilized the US's former enemies and turned them into allies. History has shown that this one off was not really out of any sort of kindness of heart, but a cold calculation that these countries were needed as allies against the USSR in the cold war.

Congress seems to have a history of being perfectly willing to spill tons of treasure on weapons of war, but are not really willing to spend even a fraction of that on securing the peace, unless it's for the next war. IMO that's a major flaw in US foreign policy.

Russia might be in some position to try democracy again someday, but I too doubt it will be anytime soon. Too many people with PTSD from the last time.
I hate the facts, but love your cogent and clear recitation of known facts. As optimistic as I want to be, I do not think the West will actually do what is needed. If Ukraine does by miracle prevail, the West is still united, they'll end out wanting large scale Russian reparations and forced rebidding of Ukraine.

Then, we'll see a repeat of the WWI results. The Marshall Plan was odious to some, but it ended out being enlightened self interest. Nobody is likely to think about such things in this case, not with all those oil and gas reserves.

Whatever we may think this will not end well.
 
Maybe they are now pulling out so they can nuke it with clear conscious.
He cannot use Nuclear arms in Ukraine without producing fallout in Belarus and Russia. Even Putin knows that use of nuclear arms in nearby places are attacks on Russia itself also. At this juncture he may not care. Hopefully other people in the authorization chain will not flinch.
 
Germany might just be run by some of the stupidest people on the planet.

 

A blog suggested to me by a Canadian-American friend who lived in Tallinn for 12 years. Another perspective. Would be particularly interested in thoughts on this blog from anyone here living in Estonia or neighboring countries.
 
Unguided munitions can be used to hit targets with some precision, but only if the air crews are trained to do it. NATO pilots train for this mission quite a bit. NATO has an annual competition for bombing accuracy. Western pilots get about 200 hours of flight time a year, plus hundreds more in simulators. The Russian pilots get far fewer hours in the air and a lot less simulator time, if at all.

The strategic bombing survey after WW II found that even with the mush slower aircraft of the 1940s bombing accuracy sucked from higher altitude unless the crews were very well trained. Most of the best crews ended up in pathfinder units that marked targets for the less experienced bombers coming behind them.

With the tech available to NATO aircraft today, they can compensate for the higher speeds of modern aircraft but the crews need to be drilled on bombing accuracy to have constant training to keep their skills up. Bombing at high speeds is still difficult, even with high tech bomb sights.

Erik Rudel, the German Stuka ace was a consultant on the development of the A-10. The USAF brass wanted a super sonic plane, but Rudel argued for something even slower than the A-10. For ground attack the slower you go the more accurate you can be. The A-10 was the compromise. And even then the USAF brass kept trying to retire it before it proved successful in the first Gulf War because it wasn't sexy. It had already been relegated to the Air National Guard units.

The Ukrainians do need to get all the SAM systems they can. The fact that the Russians are bombing from higher altitudes in the south are a sign that the Ukrainian air force is not effective now. I was asking about @petit_bateau's argument that when the Ukrainian air force runs out of operation aircraft the Russians would be able to step up their air war.

I think the Russians are doing the most they can with their air force right now regardless of how many Ukrainian MiGs are flying. Like their army, their air force is not as good as it looked on paper. Most Russian aircraft probably have avionics at least a generation behind NATO, if not two and their pilots get so little stick time they don't have the muscle memory to use the systems they do have efficiently.

Area bombing is most effective with large numbers of aircraft attacking on one mission and it doesn't appear the Russian air force is capable of mounting large strike formations. I reposted the article analyzing their capabilities yesterday or the day before.

Area bombing damage looks impressive on the news, but it really is very ineffective at winning wars. Every time it has been used, it did little to help the side using it. The US did it in Vietnam and lost. The Germans did it to London and lost. The RAF did it to Germany and won, but the bombing in each case made the public getting bombed more determined to fight than anything else.

Ukraine is taking tremendous damage to infrastructure and a huge percentage of their population is displaced, but the Russians are not doing enough damage to the Ukrainian's fighting ability to win the war. They are just running up the bill for the aftermath.

I know some countries are thinking about giving the Ukrainians the Russian assets they have seized after the war to help them rebuild. I hope they do. Ukraine is going to need it and Russia doesn't deserve it. I know the Russian people are going to take it on the chin, they didn't have a say in this and don't really know what's happening, but ultimately a country's people ends up owning whatever their government does. Sort of like the wounds from child abuse as an adult, it wasn't your fault, but it's now your responsibility.

In any case, I don't see where the Ukrainian air force is much of a factor now. The eventual grounding of their remaining MiGs is probably not going to make much difference. It would be good if the Ukrainians could get those MiGs from NATO, but I don't see it as critical. Getting SAM systems is more important.
I was beat to it, but I was talking mostly about mid to high altitude SAMs that Ukraine is requesting, although the Ukrainian air force does serve as a deterrent too, even if they don't fly that many sorties.

If Russia manages to take out the remaining mid/high altitude AA, they can fly at mid altitude across Ukraine with a lot less worry and do the same type of bombing in the western and northern regions they have already been doing in southern/eastern Ukraine. As for effectiveness, such bombing can still hit larger targets like fuel and ammo depots that currently they have to use missiles to hit, which can save those missiles for other targets. And outside of military targets, they can further pound civilian targets to pressure Ukraine for negotiations (even if it doesn't necessarily win the war).

That is why Ukraine has continually requested those assets, because they need them in case their current ones get taken out (and MANPADs don't serve the same roles).
 
Begins to look as if Chernihiv and Sumy both relieved by Ukraine today

[edit] and Hostomel

Also Russian forces in Brovary area seem to be very much on back foot, but Izium and Maripol both under Russian pressure.

[edit] I have seen reports Russians have mined Antonov Bridge down by Kherson ....
 
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Germany might just be run by some of the stupidest people on the planet.

Don't judge until you have the facts.. Those reactors are decomissioned. Making them workable again would take until mid next-year AT THE MINIMUM. Also there is no source of fuel yet, they weren't serviced for some time and originally built in the 60s to 80s. Making them work for a few more years is more expensive then pumping the same money into solar/wind. And it would still not be in time for the winter - LNG would.

There are better & cheaper plans to get off russian gas (and fossil fuels in general) than to turn on nuclear again. And don't get me started on "build new ones". New ones usually take 15-20 years from plan to operation.
 
Don't judge until you have the facts.. Those reactors are decomissioned. Making them workable again would take until mid next-year AT THE MINIMUM. Also there is no source of fuel yet, they weren't serviced for some time and originally built in the 60s to 80s. Making them work for a few more years is more expensive then pumping the same money into solar/wind. And it would still not be in time for the winter - LNG would.

There are better & cheaper plans to get off russian gas (and fossil fuels in general) than to turn on nuclear again. And don't get me started on "build new ones". New ones usually take 15-20 years from plan to operation.

This is talking about the 3 plants that were shut down literally within the last 3 months and the other three are still running but due to be shut down later this year… they’re still going be shut down.

I’m sure 90% of Germany’s obstacles are paperwork, just like Giga Berlin.