Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

With all due respect, but are you really that qualified on this matter?

6 weeks would be 5 days a week with normal working hours. But what if you work say 14 hours a day 7 days a week? And if the future of your country depends on your performance... If they say 2-3 weeks, then I'm going to trust them.

.../ I have been a student of military aviation for over 50 years, but it's not my profession. I was surprised the transition training for the F-16 was only 6 weeks.

One thing I do know is task planning. I've been having to give project estimates for engineering projects for decades. One consistent thing most people do when estimating how long a task is going to take is to be overly optimistic about how long it takes. I've learned to be brutally pessimistic and I usually get an accurate result in the end.

I think the estimate given by the Ukrainians might be too optimistic. Maybe a crash course is possible, but I'm skeptical. /...

It seems it was quite common in his thread to think that time favored the Ukrainians. But now with this Putin's Air Force thing, it appears that there is a quite significant element where time favors Putin. And if that turn out to be true, then that will mean a lot more dead Ukrainians.

 

[petit_bateau]

IS THIS FOR REAL????????

I've not seen any follow-up to this insanity, am I missing something?

Yes the Russians have been trampling all over the Chernobyl exclusion zone, even hand-digging trenches in the worst bits, unprotected & uninformed & unaware. Quite a lot of these troops will likely die of alpha-induced cancers in their lungs in the years to come. Not good.

Ukraine has apparently struck Belgorod (which is in Russia, just across the border from Kharkiv) for the third time if I recall correctly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509751440079736832

My memory is the first time was a short range ballistic missile attack at the beginning of the invasion. Second time it was unclear what the weaponry was, fairly recently. This time it seems to be two helicopters going after the oil terminal complex. Attacks like this will really cause problems in the logistics tail of the Russian forces, both in their attempts to attack Kharkiv area coming from the North, and also in their attempts to do a West > East transfer of their withdrawn/retreating forces from the Kiev assault to the Donbass area. I think I previously estimated at least a couple of weeks for such a lateral transfer to be accomplished in any volume. I think this is the fifth significant cross-border attack by Ukraine as there was (memory) one also in the Donbass rear area inside Russia and I seem to recall an incident at a airfield site in Belarus.

The Antonov bridge is not your grandfathers bridge. If the Russians were to blow it would cause a very significant problem for Ukraine force trying to access Kherson and thereby also relieve Mariopol and break the Crimea-Donbass land corridor. There are very few bridges across the Dnieper in this region. There is one crossing about 20km East (at Katzkova / Kharkova Hydro dam, also in Russian hands on at least the south side) , none to the West, and then next up is 200km further East at Zaphorizia. The Russians appear to be trying to push ahead with a pretend independence referendum in Kerson Oblast just as they did in Luhansk and Donbass oblasts, (and Crimea) as justification for long term occupation.
Antonovskiy Bridge - Wikipedia

I am sure the Ukraine will try to retake Donbass areas if the opportunity can be caused to arise, ie it will be an objective. Less sure about attempting Crimea.

Some reports that UK will give long range artillery systems. Conflicting reports as to what - 105mm lights, AS-90, or what. Not just UK, also many others, see donor conference report.

West to send ‘more lethal aid’ to Ukraine, UK defence secretary says

Ben Wallace says donor conference of over 35 countries discussed need to change type of weaponry supplied

www.theguardian.com

If you look at video of the operating heights (and speeds, which can be deduced from the video) of Ukraine air defence fighters (not ground atack) you can get an insight into the limitations they are operating under, and the tactics they are having to adopt to try to stop Russians gaining air control. These are by no means normal ways of doing business, or even good ways, ie it shows how difficult the situation is for Ukraine in the air.

 

[MC3OZ]

The Antonov bridge is not your grandfathers bridge. If the Russians were to blow it would cause a very significant problem for Ukraine force trying to access Kherson and thereby also relieve Mariopol and break the Crimea-Donbass land corridor.

I read something on Twitter stating that the water was shallow and crossing elsewhere would not be problem.

But the Russians will have good reasons for wanting to blow it up.
Who knows if people posting on Twitter have any idea what they are talking about? But we can make a guess, they probably don't.

It seems it was quite common in his thread to think that time favored the Ukrainians. But now with this Putin's Air Force thing, it appears that there is a quite significant element where time favors Putin. And if that turn out to be true, then that will mean a lot more dead Ukrainians.

In relation to time it works both ways, but only if NATO and others continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, and if they start supplying what Ukraine needs. Time allows resupply, but it has to be sufficient quantity and the right stuff.

Turkey has agreed to provide security guarantees for Ukraine the US and UK haven't. If countries are not prepared to get directly involved, they should make the maximum effort on weapons.

There seems to be mounting evidence that the Russians are slowly withdrawing from the north.
And for once their stated intentions might be correct, they are refocusing on the East and want to lower the temperature to help negotiations.

Refocused on a single sector, the Russian air-force might be more effective, but I also think the refocus might be taking stock, and limiting casualties.

If the Ukrainians can obtain and position the SAMs they need, the war may slow down to a slower tempo.

IMO when Russia fully tabulates their losses, they will become more risk averse. Apart from the economic issues, they can't sustain this rate of personnel and equipment losses.

But whenever the Russians can fire artillery and bomb with minimal risk of losses, that seems to be their preferred option.

 

[MC3OZ]

This did occur to me:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509777628663795719

 

[wdolson]

It seems it was quite common in his thread to think that time favored the Ukrainians. But now with this Putin's Air Force thing, it appears that there is a quite significant element where time favors Putin. And if that turn out to be true, then that will mean a lot more dead Ukrainians.

Most of the time factors are working against Russia, but the air situation favors them. On the whole the Russians are bleeding out on the ground.

Yes the Russians have been trampling all over the Chernobyl exclusion zone, even hand-digging trenches in the worst bits, unprotected & uninformed & unaware. Quite a lot of these troops will likely die of alpha-induced cancers in their lungs in the years to come. Not good.

Ukraine has apparently struck Belgorod (which is in Russia, just across the border from Kharkiv) for the third time if I recall correctly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509751440079736832

My memory is the first time was a short range ballistic missile attack at the beginning of the invasion. Second time it was unclear what the weaponry was, fairly recently. This time it seems to be two helicopters going after the oil terminal complex. Attacks like this will really cause problems in the logistics tail of the Russian forces, both in their attempts to attack Kharkiv area coming from the North, and also in their attempts to do a West > East transfer of their withdrawn/retreating forces from the Kiev assault to the Donbass area. I think I previously estimated at least a couple of weeks for such a lateral transfer to be accomplished in any volume. I think this is the fifth significant cross-border attack by Ukraine as there was (memory) one also in the Donbass rear area inside Russia and I seem to recall an incident at a airfield site in Belarus.

The Antonov bridge is not your grandfathers bridge. If the Russians were to blow it would cause a very significant problem for Ukraine force trying to access Kherson and thereby also relieve Mariopol and break the Crimea-Donbass land corridor. There are very few bridges across the Dnieper in this region. There is one crossing about 20km East (at Katzkova / Kharkova Hydro dam, also in Russian hands on at least the south side) , none to the West, and then next up is 200km further East at Zaphorizia. The Russians appear to be trying to push ahead with a pretend independence referendum in Kerson Oblast just as they did in Luhansk and Donbass oblasts, (and Crimea) as justification for long term occupation.
Antonovskiy Bridge - Wikipedia

I am sure the Ukraine will try to retake Donbass areas if the opportunity can be caused to arise, ie it will be an objective. Less sure about attempting Crimea.

Some reports that UK will give long range artillery systems. Conflicting reports as to what - 105mm lights, AS-90, or what. Not just UK, also many others, see donor conference report.

West to send ‘more lethal aid’ to Ukraine, UK defence secretary says

Ben Wallace says donor conference of over 35 countries discussed need to change type of weaponry supplied

www.theguardian.com

If you look at video of the operating heights (and speeds, which can be deduced from the video) of Ukraine air defence fighters (not ground atack) you can get an insight into the limitations they are operating under, and the tactics they are having to adopt to try to stop Russians gaining air control. These are by no means normal ways of doing business, or even good ways, ie it shows how difficult the situation is for Ukraine in the air.

Kherson is on the north shore of the Dnieper so the Ukrainians have a decent chance of taking it back in the coming weeks, but if that bridge is blown that does make crossing to the south more difficult. The city of Zaporizhzhia is in Ukrainian hands now (the nuclear power plant that was in the news is further south and still under Russian control).

The Ukrainians, if they are capable of it, could mount an offensive from there and sweep west along the south side of the river. It would have the added benefit of trapping the Russian forces holding the Zaporizhzhia NPP too. It's a long ways to Kherson though, around 300 Km. That might be more than their offensive capability can manage. Though the goal of an offensive from that axis would probably be to relieve Mariupol directly. That's only about 100 Km.

I read something on Twitter stating that the water was shallow and crossing elsewhere would not be problem.

But the Russians will have good reasons for wanting to blow it up.
Who knows if people posting on Twitter have any idea what they are talking about? But we can make a guess, they probably don't.


In relation to time it works both ways, but only if NATO and others continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, and if they start supplying what Ukraine needs. Time allows resupply, but it has to be sufficient quantity and the right stuff.

Turkey has agreed to provide security guarantees for Ukraine the US and UK haven't. If countries are not prepared to get directly involved, they should make the maximum effort on weapons.

There seems to be mounting evidence that the Russians are slowly withdrawing from the north.
And for once their stated intentions might be correct, they are refocusing on the East and want to lower the temperature to help negotiations.

Refocused on a single sector, the Russian air-force might be more effective, but I also think the refocus might be taking stock, and limiting casualties.

If the Ukrainians can obtain and position the SAMs they need, the war may slow down to a slower tempo.

IMO when Russia fully tabulates their losses, they will become more risk averse. Apart from the economic issues, they can't sustain this rate of personnel and equipment losses.

But whenever the Russians can fire artillery and bomb with minimal risk of losses, that seems to be their preferred option.

There are stories that Putin is being lied to by his top brass because nobody wants to tell him bad news, but he must be getting some accurate information if he approved the withdraw in the north. I don't think the Russians are all that concerned about the peace negotiations. They are pulling out of the north because their forces are too depleted to keep up the fight on that front.

Somebody somehow got Putin to agree to an objective that was within a snowball's chance in hell of succeeding. I raise their chances of success with their new goals from impossible to very remote. they are regrouping their remaining forces to throw them into that basket.

Russians aren't really concerned about their own casualties beyond the fact that losses weaken their overall forces. They don't really understand morale like western armies do and they really don't care how many soldiers get killed if they win.

Ukraine is a European country who has been embracing European values more and more ever since they gained independence. Russia is not a European country. The culture evolved from some Viking influence, but quite a bit of Mongol influence. Culturally Russia is, to a large degree, an Asian country with some European influences.

From a leadership point of view, life is much cheaper in Russia than it is in Europe. That's not to say that individual Russians are close to their friends and family. The Russians I have known personally were very bonded to their families and cared a great deal about each of their family members. There is a difference between macro and micro culture. The governments of Russia over the years have not really cared how many people it killed to meet their goals. It's been that way for 1000 years. People are just a disposable asset.

This worked more or less when the birth rate was high, but Russia today has a low birth rate with high emigration. They can't afford to throw away a lot of lives, but the old mindset still prevails.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

This did occur to me:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509777628663795719

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509797087109599258

 

[nativewolf]

With all due respect, but are you really that qualified on this matter?

6 weeks would be 5 days a week with normal working hours. But what if you work say 14 hours a day 7 days a week? And if the future of your country depends on your performance... If they say 2-3 weeks, then I'm going to trust them.

To me the concern is not flying. The concern is support and maintaining. Flying is trivial compared to keeping a modern american jet in the air. Training a mechanic would be a long process. Anyhow, I think far better to get the to Poland and have the poles send the mig 29s

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"'The last straw': Former oligarch on renouncing Russian citizenship​

CNN's Hadas Gold speaks to Leonid Nevzlin, a former oligarch who moved to Israel nearly 20 years ago, on his decision to publicly renounce his Russian citizenship."

He wants tougher sanctions.

Watch: Why this former oligarch renounced his Russian citizenship | CNN

CNN's Hadas Gold speaks to Leonid Nevzlin, a former oligarch who moved to Israel nearly 20 years ago, on his decision to publicly renounce his Russian citizenship.

edition.cnn.com

 

[CHGolferJim]

The press release says they can learn to fly western jets in 2-3 weeks. The most likely western jet would be F-16s, the US has about 4000 spare. The USAF transition training on the F-16 is 6 weeks and that's from other US or NATO jets. Russian jets have a lot more differences.

They also claim that every war since WW II has hinged on air superiority. There are many wars that went against the power with air superiority: Soviets in Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iraq, and the US in Afghanistan among others.

I generally agree with their argument, but there is some lily gilding here IMO.



I was talking about pushing the Russians back to the start line at the start of this war. Invading Crimea would be difficult, the connection to Ukraine is a narrow isthmus that would be easy to defend. The disputed territory in Donbas would be a bit easier, but the Russians have been in control there long enough it would be more difficult to take that territory than taking back territory that was Ukraine 6 weeks ago.

The UN can put a resolution on the floor for the whole membership and bypass the Security Council. The Security Council is a poorly designed committee. There have already been noises that if a peace keeping resolution was put on the floor for the whole UN, it would likely pass, especially if the Russians have been pushed back to the start line.

What are your thoughts about allegiances changing in the Donbas vs. pre-war? I believe you and others have commented on many people throughout Ukraine who were relatively pro-Russian (concentrated in Donbas and Crimea) becoming much less so after the invasion. If a permanent ceasefire/treaty/whatever could largely return Ukraine to the status quo ante, might the separatist fighting be greatly reduced or stopped and the areas gradually turn back more towards Ukraine (with reduced Russian support for the separatists + a possible Putin demise effect)?

 

[sundaymorning]

Young Russian soldiers sent to die with 1940s rifle that don’t work, pushed into war against their will.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Quite a lot of these troops will likely die of alpha-induced cancers in their lungs in the years to come.

This is fear-mongering. Please don't amplify this propaganda without evidence from the ground. We deal with enough of that already.

 

[glhs272]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509797087109599258

It's an interesting event regardless if this was a false flag Russian attack or an actual Ukrainian strike.

Russia's at home propaganda is in need of a boost, so the Russians need to instill fear in the populace to bolster flagging support for the war. A sign of bad things for Russia.

If this was actually Ukraine, 1) interesting they were able to pull off a helicopter strike deep into Russia without being shot down. Doubtful, but amazing if true. Points to further crumbling of air defenses in Russia. Also bad for Russia. 2) From a moral standpoint Ukraine has every right to bomb inside Russia. Any and every Ukrainian city is under bombing attack by Russia, both military and civilian targets. As long as Russia is bombing Ukrainian cities, Ukraine has every right and moral obligation to go after Russian Military targets inside of Russia. For that matter, since Russia is bombing the Civilians inside Kyiv, Ukraine should sends bombs all the way to Moscow.

No matter what Russia says, Ukraine will only have peace and security if they can defeat Russia militarily. They must do this.

We must send advanced fighter planes and anti-air defenses to Ukraine. New tanks and armored vehicles too. The only thing Ukraine doesn't need is nuclear weapons. Everything else should be made available to them.

 

[AlexUA]

In the early days of the war the Russians went right through the exclusion zone and kicked up enough radioactive dust that it was detected in Kyiv. Many military experts said that Russia had the equipment to go through that area without exposing their troops to too much radiation. But what we have learned since is they took no precautions. A large number of the troops who have been west of Kyiv who survive this war will probably suffer from cancer in the coming years.

The Russians really

Alpha and Beta radiation would NOT make it through concrete, or even the trench earth walls.

This is pure scare mongering by redit punks.

First registered death from radiation in Gomel... next 96 ppl getting ready

 

[dm28997]

This is fear-mongering. Please don't amplify this propaganda without evidence from the ground. We deal with enough of that already.

Some useful info on alpha, beta and gamma in Chernobyl. If people had been digging trenches there I would be surprised if they don't get radiation poisoning. Ionizing radiation, especially in the bloodstream will can DNA damage leading to mutations that affect RNA transcription leading to altered proteins affecting metabolism. That includes antibody products and cancerous cells.
Not sure how much recent studies and research have been done since I've worked in labs but I would like to see how many people in Belarus, Ukraine and Russian areas have medical issues. My guess is leukemia, bone cancer and immune disorders would be higher in those groups. Of course it takes time to develop dependent on individual repair mechanisms. It isn't so simple.

Radiation nowadys or how safe is your trip to Chernobyl exclusion zone?

Radiation is energy travelling through space. Light, heat, microwaves and wireless communications are all forms of radiation. The kind of radiation discussed here is called ionising radiation because it can produce charged particles (ions) in matter.

gamma-travel.com

 

[petit_bateau]

This is fear-mongering. Please don't amplify this propaganda without evidence from the ground. We deal with enough of that already.

It is hardly fear mongering. If you've ever run jobs involving managing teams of humans cleaning up alpha emitter dusts you would not forget it in a hurry.

That said the epidimiological community do like arguing with each other over the exact risk level and the other factors.

https://academic.oup.com/rpd/article-abstract/127/1-4/23/1607964?

However you'd not get me digging a trench in the affected areas around Chernobyl without at least a decent mask and good shower.

 

[Artful Dodger]

First registered death from radiation in Gomel... next 96 ppl getting ready

No credible news sources.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If people had been digging trenches

That's the point, isn't it? We don't have any credible, 3rd-party reports. Fringe web/newz sites are NOT credible. It may take years before we know the true here. I for one am NOT going to over-react to what is obvious trolling/click-baiting.

Scarely nuclear. Propaganda of choice.

 

[sundaymorning]

Even if Ukraine can't conduct a full scale offensive to push the Russians out, they can continue to bleed Russia dry. My partner was reading an economic analysis that made the point that the measures the Russians are doing to prop up the ruble and the economy is only a short term plaster on a gaping wound. They are trading future stability to patch the damage today. When the reserves run out the crash will be even bigger and there will be nothing left to stop it.

I'm sure the Ukrainians understand this too. The Russians ability to fight war is also degrading. Their supply situation is still terrible and getting worse. Their replacements are even poorer quality and their reserve equipment are little more than dregs from a scrapyard.

A long war favors Ukraine. Russia gets more unstable by the day.
Mark Hertling posted a few hours ago that his analysis from Feb 24 still stands.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508965836836462599

This video pretty much sums up the state of the Russian economy:

Like the average individual who has personal savings to weather the storm, individuals will tap into their savings for emergencies, until that is those funds deplete. Russia has $300 billion in cash stored at the beginning of this war as a rainy day fund, they’re laying 20% interest to woo individuals from withdrawing their money from ATMs…. So 20% of that money will be lost by years end.

What happens when their citizens loses jobs due to Us firms pulling out? Well, they won’t have enough to pay taxes. What happens when a manufacturing line has parts that are broken and sanctions prevent the factories from getting those parts? Well, the entire line shuts down, workers are sent home. What happens when workers don’t get paid? They don’t pay their taxes… the Russian economy will function until their funds are nearly depleted, that’s when the real panic will begin. For now get your popcorn ready.

 

[petit_bateau]

That's the point, isn't it? We don't have any credible, 3rd-party reports. Fringe web/newz sites are NOT credible. It may take years before we know the true here. I for one am NOT going to over-react to what is obvious trolling/click-baiting.

Scarely nuclear. Propaganda of choice.

The same Chernobyl reactor crews who reported the evacuation of the Russian troops to Belarus also reported what they had been doing. Which included digging trenches and all the other stupidities with no knowledge. Even the BBC has reported it, confirming the Reuters reports.

Ukraine war: Russian troops leave Chernobyl, Ukraine says

Ukraine's state nuclear company says Russian soldiers have left the former nuclear power plant.

www.bbc.com

 

[madodel]

A Belarusian battalion fights in Ukraine ‘for both countries’ freedom’

Apparently not every Belorussian is devoted to their dictator and Putin. Lukashenko and Putin deserve the same fate.