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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Louis Vuitton??? You can't possibly be serious. You really think Putin gives a rat's ass about Louis Freaking Vuitton?
You’re missing the point, Louis Vuitton is only one example of a ton of money leaving Russia: McDonald’s, Chanel, Car manufacturers, airplanes grounded, etc… Do you even realize how much sanctions we put on Russia? It’s to a tune of $1.3 trillion dollars which is higher than the $1.2 trillion worth of the entire Russian GDP. Imagine if the US was hit with $20 trillion worth of sanctions, how do you think our economy will fair once we use up our reserves? Sure a guy like Trump if he was president wouldn’t care, but how long do you think he’ll stay in power?
I'll repeat myself again and again. Russians will experience hardship (even worse than the loss of overpriced handbags, lol). Their economy will contract. Inflation will be high. There will be spot shortages, sometimes of necessary goods. None of this will stop Putin, or even materially affect him. He's fighting to reverse the "greatest tragedy of the 20th century", to reassemble an empire and establish his place in history alongside Stalin and Tsars.
The point here isn’t to stop Putin immediately, the sanction is a slow burn to which it will cause the Russians enough harm so they are unable to manufacture the goods they need to attack others beyond Ukraine, and if they do, they’ll be fk up by NATO so hard Putin and his military will be crying to their mother. This is the long game, and if you want immediate results, economic warfare isn’t for you. Just look at what happened the Soviet Union when they ran out of money.
The collapse came a decade after the start of that war. I completely agree Putin's empire will likely collapse by 2032. I also agree we must impose sanctions, to express moral outrage if nothing else. But I dispute this absurd notion that sanctions will "bring Russia's economy to its knees" and force Putin to the table or even out of office. That's a fantasy. North Korea has suffered worse sanctions for decades, with vastly fewer resources. Iran is a similar story..
If the collapse will come, then that’s my definition for Russia being down on its knees. When people bring up Korea they’ve already lost the argument, to be as powerful as Russia and be brought back to the North Korean age isn’t exactly where you want to be as a thriving state; unless you think people in North Korea are happy with their economic condition...
Ukraine (with many more of our weapons) must beat Russia badly on the battlefield. That's the only way to get to Putin. After a cease fire or armistice or whatever we can allow sanctions to slowly grind away.
Ukraine does not need to beat Russia for sanctions to be effective. Again the sanction is the entire GDP of the Russian economy, if a stronger enemy sanctioned the US $20 trillion and we were unable to operate effectively, how do you think people’s economic condition would be like in the US? Would they be happy going back to the North Korean Age? These sanctions have stopped Russia from building tanks, which means the possibility of them attacking NATO is much lower than it was before the invasion.
Belief in such fables impedes our efforts to take the riskier and potentially ugly steps which are actually necessary.
No I don’t support WW3. If you have the balls to fight Putin head on, go join the fight in Ukraine. If not then don’t ask US citizens/boys to fight this war for you. Do you have a crystal ball on what Putin is thinking? Even if it’s there’s a 10% chance of WW3, I want no part of it. If there’s a 5% chance that a nuke can be set off, I want no part of it.
FX rate is just a signal. The real question is whether Russia can buy what they need (not want). Almost everyone here says they can't. I say they can.
When goods costs 50-100% higher in some cases 300-500% higher, it’ll damage your economic standing, your ability to pay bills, your confidence in making big purchases. Say hello to Mr. Inflation for me at every corner, do you somehow think the Russians enjoy higher prices while jobs are moving out of Russia? And don’t give me that gas nothing do with Putin.. yes it does, it takes away his aura of invincibility, it takes away taxes he can use to build weapons, warplanes, smart bombs etc.
Knock it off. We're all here to try and understand. I've said repeatedly the Russian economy will suck. Standard of living will decline. Putin doesn't care. Ex-oligarch (and ex-prisoner) Mikhail Khodorovsky was on CNN today, saying Putin no longer even cares about his own wealth. And that makes him much more dangerous. As long as we keep fooling ourselves about this, and keep looking at things through a western lens, we will be ineffective.
Knock what what off? I’m here to to you that the whole point to sanctions is to pressure Putin as well as those around him down to the very citizen that struggles to buy bread, itll eventually empty his wallet/reserves to the point where his military will become ineffective.
We’re barely a month into this war and he’s had to pull back and regroup, how long we’re we in Vietnam for? For Putin to pull back and regroup this early tells that sanctions are working and it’s driving him mad behind closed doors. If I was called a war criminal around the world I wouldn’t care about my wealth neither. Again, sanction is a long game, and I support it. Had there been no sanctions you think Putin will stop with Ukraine? Tell that to Hitler…

If you don’t agree with sanctions what do you think is the best solution? You don’t think the Biden administration has enough intelligence so far to deal with this? They have more intelligence and a better read on this matter than anyone of us here. Unless you’re listening to Fox News all day then maybe small hands/Jan 6 guy has a better read on Putin.
 
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With the events we see in Bocha, I can't even describe the carnage being inflicted on the Ukrainian civilians. Mass graves, torture, murder, and much worse. The Ukrainian people are being systematically murdered everywhere under Russian control. What more does it take for the West to get more involved?
If the West sends boots on the ground it’ll give Putin a propaganda tool to use Nukes in Ukraine as it would threaten Russia’s existence. How do I know? Look at Vietnam and how the communists used propaganda against the US sending boots on the ground in that country. You don’t risk losing millions of lives and starting world war 3, unless there’s no other alternative. Right now we have options. This isn’t Iraq we’re dealing with, Russia has thousands of Nukes to end life on planet earth 5 times over. My 2cents to give you a differing perspective.
 
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You also need to consider all the things they will not be able to import, parts, computer chips some types of food etc.
Also all the businesses that have closed increased unemployment, the direct cost of the war in terms of lives, medical bills, and equipment.

Also that the Ruble, will decline in value and 50% of the world will prefer not to trade with them,

Also a fairly quick migration to clean energy and transport including in places like China.

China is pursuing EVs to reduce oil imports, the potential for EVs and batteries, solar in India is huge.

The West sees this as a wake up call and will accelerate clean energy and transport.

Elon suggested a lot more solar should be installed in Spain and I agree.
I have no idea what winter solar production is like, but here in QLD winter production is 46% of the Summer peak and in Melbourne Victoria it is 13% of the summer peak. That summer/winter drop off in solar isn't uniform.

From memory in winter offshore wind in Germany does quite well, summer is more of a problem, if true solar in Spain is very complementary.

The EU can do a lot of fix their energy issues if they work as a team and get some help from countries like the US and Australia.

Russian are living with a deluded view of their importance and power, many in the west also overrate them,

Sanctions are not as effective as they should be because some aspects are a bit half-hearted, but resolve is strengthening and there is plenty of scope to tighten sanctions.
When you can’t get the parts you need to build tanks, missiles, jets, etc. and send your military into war, you’ve lost. Putin hasn’t realized this yet, but the longer this drags on, the chance he’ll survive politically dwindles.
 
Sanctions haven't saved one life in Ukraine yet. Entire cities are being leveled. The only thing that has done anything is massive military aid from the West so that the Ukrainians can FIGHT. I have been right since day 1 that the only way to stop a bully is to beat him. Thousands of lives would have been saved if we had done more militarily, and done it sooner. If we are lucky, when this is over the sanctions will eventually bring about a regime change in Russia, but they have done next to nothing for the war/killing in Ukraine.

Really sanctions haven’t saved one life Ukraine? You mean the sanction that’s pretty much brought Russian tank production to a halt? The same sanction that has stopped the Russians from getting their hands on smart chips that goes into jet fighters, missiles and smart bombs? The same sanctions that’s preventing China from sending Russia tires for military vehicles? The same sanction that’s stopping potential future tax dollars from flowing into the Russian military complex? People here need to realize the long game, and quit talking about a golden goose sanction to stop Putin immediately.
 
You’re missing the point, Louis Vuitton is only one example of a ton of money leaving Russia: McDonald’s, Chanel, Car manufacturers, airplanes grounded, etc… Do you even realize how much sanctions we put on Russia? It’s to a tune of $1.3 trillion dollars which is higher than the $1.2 trillion worth of the entire Russian GDP. Imagine if the US was hit with $20 trillion worth of sanctions, how do you think our economy will fair once we use up our reserves? Sure a guy like Trump if he was president wouldn’t care, but how long do you think he’ll stay in power?

The point here isn’t to stop Putin immediately, the sanction is a slow burn to which it will cause the Russians enough harm so they are unable to manufacture the goods they need to attack others beyond Ukraine, and if they do, they’ll be fk up by NATO so hard Putin and his military will be crying to their mother. This is the long game, and if you want immediate results, economic warfare isn’t for you. Just look at what happened the Soviet Union when they ran out of money.

If the collapse will come, then that’s my definition for Russia being down on its knees. When people bring up Korea they’ve already lost the argument, to be as powerful as Russia and be brought back to the North Korean age isn’t exactly where you want to be as a thriving state; unless you think people in North Korea are happy with their economic condition...

Ukraine does not need to beat Russia for sanctions to be effective. Again the sanction is the entire GDP of the Russian economy, if a stronger enemy sanctioned the US $20 trillion and we were unable to operate effectively, how do you think people’s economic condition would be like in the US? Would they be happy going back to the North Korean Age? These sanctions have stopped Russia from building tanks, which means the possibility of them attacking NATO is much lower than it was before the invasion.

No I don’t support WW3. If you have the balls to fight Putin head on, go join the fight in Ukraine. If not then don’t ask US citizens/boys to fight this war for you. Do you have a crystal ball on what Putin is thinking? Even if it’s there’s a 10% chance of WW3, I want no part of it. If there’s a 5% chance that a nuke can be set off, I want no part of it.

When goods costs 50-100% higher in some cases 300-500% higher, it’ll damage your economic standing, your ability to pay bills, your confidence in making big purchases. Say hello to Mr. Inflation for me at every corner, do you somehow think the Russians enjoy higher prices while jobs are moving out of Russia? And don’t give me that gas nothing do with Putin.. yes it does, it takes away his aura of invincibility, it takes away taxes he can use to build weapons, warplanes, smart bombs etc.

Knock what what off? I’m here to to you that the whole point to sanctions is to pressure Putin as well as those around him down to the very citizen that struggles to buy bread, itll eventually empty his wallet/reserves to the point where his military will become ineffective.
We’re barely a month into this war and he’s had to pull back and regroup, how long we’re we in Vietnam for? For Putin to pull back and regroup this early tells that sanctions are working and it’s driving him mad behind closed doors. If I was called a war criminal around the world I wouldn’t care about my wealth neither. Again, sanction is a long game, and I support it. Had there been no sanctions you think Putin will stop with Ukraine? Tell that to Hitler…

If you don’t agree with sanctions what do you think is the best solution? You don’t think the Biden administration has enough intelligence so far to deal with this? They have more intelligence and a better read on this matter than anyone of us here. Unless you’re listening to Fox News all day then they think small hands Jan 6 guy has a better read on Putin.

In the Kamil Galeev interview I posted earlier he made the point that we shouldn't expect sanctions to bring down the government directly. It has never caused a public uprising to bring down the government. Countries going under sanctions have almost always have internal security locked down enough that the people can't rise up easily. Sanctions can break the economy enough to eventually destabilize the country, but at minimum the sanctions will hurt Russia's ability to carry out the war.

The sanctions are hurting Russia's economy and will break the back of their military effort. The country is heavily dependent on external tech and that has been shut off.

These two posts speak to how severe Russia's manpower shortage is

You have to scroll down a couple of posts:

"They’ve learned from the enemy’s example the dangers of using inexperienced crews in armored assaults. The crew of one Russian BMP was three lieutenants, none from combat arms (one was a metrologist). This is... a non-standard BMP crew. I have blurred faces, names & birthdates."

They are pressing non-combat officers into combat roles usually filled by enlisted personnel. That's so unusual I have never heard of any army doing that as an emergency measure. It's also sending those people on a suicide mission. Even with Russian equipment being able to fight with them effectively requires some training.

At the Battle of Kesserine Pass in 1943 which was the first time the US engaged the Germans. The Germans almost broke through and the Americans had to throw everybody available into the defense. A railroad construction unit made up of American railroad workers who had never had infantry training got hit hard and took very high losses. An after action report showed that the lack of infantry training among the railroad troops contributed quite a bit to their losses.

Fighting as infantry is much easier than fighting an armored vehicle. The officers they are putting in BMPs probably had some basic training many years ago, but they probably have barely enough training to drive that AFV.
 
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In the Kamil Galeev interview I posted earlier he made the point that we shouldn't expect sanctions to bring down the government directly. It has never caused a public uprising to bring down the government. Countries going under sanctions have almost always have internal security locked down enough that the people can't rise up easily. Sanctions can break the economy enough to eventually destabilize the country, but at minimum the sanctions will hurt Russia's ability to carry out the war.

The sanctions are hurting Russia's economy and will break the back of their military effort. The country is heavily dependent on external tech and that has been shut off.

These two posts speak to how severe Russia's manpower shortage is

You have to scroll down a ways

"They’ve learned from the enemy’s example the dangers of using inexperienced crews in armored assaults. The crew of one Russian BMP was three lieutenants, none from combat arms (one was a metrologist). This is... a non-standard BMP crew. I have blurred faces, names & birthdates."

They are pressing non-combat officers into combat roles usually filled by enlisted personnel. That's so unusual I have never heard of any army doing that as an emergency measure. It's also sending those people on a suicide mission. Even with Russian equipment being able to fight with them effectively requires some training.

At the Battle of Kesserine Pass in 1943 which was the first time the US engaged the Germans. The Germans almost broke through and the Americans had to throw everybody available into the defense. A railroad construction unit made up of American railroad workers who had never had infantry training got hit hard and took very high losses. An after action report showed that the lack of infantry training among the railroad troops contributed quite a bit to their losses.

Fighting as infantry is much easier than fighting an armored vehicle. The officers they are putting in BMPs probably had some basic training many years ago, but they probably have barely enough training to drive that AFV.
If Russia can’t get its hands on vital parts for their military then they’ve already lost this war. With morale being low, recruits being called and handed WW2 guns it’s only a matter of time. I think the US politicians in charge understands that Russians generally doesn’t deal with military losses very well. In the past, military losses in Russia was followed by the guy in power being overthrown by other internal strife at home, smiler to Nicholas the Czar, and then the collapse of the Soviet after Afghan.

I generally agree that sanctions do not topple governments, at least not immediately and directly. The sanctions we’ve placed on Russia has weakened their military effectiveness, how long Putin can drag this on is anyone’s guess. But I invite any Russian going into Ukraine with minimal gear against a well armed Ukrainian army. By the end of the war, the Russian military will be tremendously weakened, and shamed. This makes one less enemy that Europe/NATO has to fear, unless a crazy guy with small hands gets into power after Putin and decides to to prove a point with Nukes.

Aside from weakening their military, these sanctions are making Russians poorer, with less taxes to collect Russian won’t have as much to rebuild its military might, R&D will be scaled back, raises for government employees will need to cease, etc. anyone who thinks sanctions are meant to topple the Russian government needs to re-listen to President Biden’s speech:

Today, I’m authorizing additional strong sanctions and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia.

This is going to impose severe costs on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time.

We have purposefully designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia
and to minimize the impact on the United States and our Allies.

And I want to be clear: The United States is not doing this alone. For months, we’ve been building a coalition of partners representing well more than half of the global economy.

Twenty-seven members of the European Union, including France, Germany, Italy — as well as the United
Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and many others — to amplify the joint impact of our response.

I just spoke with the G7 leaders this morning, and we are in full and total agreement. We will limit Russia’s ability to do business in Dollars, Euros, Pounds, and Yen to be part of the global economy. We will limit their ability to do that. We are going to stunt the ability to finance and grow Rus- — the Russian military.

We’re going to impose major — and we’re going to impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy.


We’ve already seen the impact of our actions on Russia’s currency, the Ruble, which early today hit its weakest level ever — ever in history. And the Russian stock market plunged today. The Russian government’s borrowing rate spiked by over 15 percent.

In today’s actions, we have now sanctioned Russian banks that together hold around $1 trillion in assets.

We’ve cut off Russia’s largest bank — a bank that holds more than one third of Russia’s banking assets by itself — cut it off from the U.S. financial system.

And today, we’re also blocking four more major banks. That means every asset they have in America will be frozen. This includes V.T.B., the second-largest bank in Russia, which has $250 billion in assets.

As promised, we’re also adding names to the list of Russian elites and their family members that are sanctioning — that we’re sanctioning as well.

As I said on Tuesday, these are people who personally gain from the Kremlin’s policies and they should share in the pain. We will keep up this drumbeat of those designations against corrupt billionaires in the days ahead.

On Tuesday, we stopped the Russian government from raising money from U.S. or European investors.

Now, we’re going to apply the same restrictions to Russia’s largest state-owned enterprises — companies with assets that exceed $1.4 trillion.

Some of the most powerful impacts of our actions will come over time as we squeeze Russia’s access to finance and technology for strategic sectors of its economy and degrade its industrial capacity for years to come.

Between our actions and those of our Allies and partners, we estimate that we’ll cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports.


It will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military. It’ll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program. It will hurt their ability to build ships, reducing their ability to compete economically. And it will be a major hit to Putin’s long-term strategic ambitions.

And we’re preparing to do more. In addition to the economic penalties we’re imposing, we’re also taking steps to defend our NATO Allies, particularly in the east.


It’s been weeks since Biden made this speech, with hindsight, can we that the sanctions purpose has been working to do exactly what it’s designed to do? Biden makes no mention of toppling any government, but the severity of these sanctions is working, it’s stalling the Russian military complex, and it will hurt them for years to come.
 
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Looking at the various Maxar sat photos and also the videos of Russian convoys moving southwards and westwards in the Donbass they appear to have learnt tactical spacing. I think these links below will work. Also the Russians appear to have a rather substantial amount of kit and their behaviour is apparently more co-ordinated. The Ukraine has a tough fight on its hand here.



 
Here are the six Republicans who voted against investigating Russia for war crimes

Why would any US congress person vote against investigating war crimes? Would they have voted against the Nuremberg Trials?

GOP Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Warren Davidson (Ohio), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Scott Perry (Pa.) all opposed the bill.​
You have to wonder if this group/party is being paid by the Russians, why are they acting as though they’re Putin’s puppet? I’ll bet they’ll either be featured on Fox News, or end up working as a news anchor for Fox.
 
Looking at the various Maxar sat photos and also the videos of Russian convoys moving southwards and westwards in the Donbass they appear to have learnt tactical spacing. I think these links below will work. Also the Russians appear to have a rather substantial amount of kit and their behaviour is apparently more co-ordinated. The Ukraine has a tough fight on its hand here.




Also more troops riding on top of the vehicles. That's the only way to survive a BMP hit with just about anything.

If Russia can’t get its hands on vital parts for their military then they’ve already lost this war. With morale being low, recruits being called and handed WW2 guns it’s only a matter of time. I think the US politicians in charge understands that Russians generally doesn’t deal with military losses very well. In the past, military losses in Russia was followed by the guy in power being overthrown by other internal strife at home, smiler to Nicholas the Czar, and then the collapse of the Soviet after Afghan.

I generally agree that sanctions do not topple governments, at least not immediately and directly. The sanctions we’ve placed on Russia has weakened their military effectiveness, how long Putin can drag this on is anyone’s guess. But I invite any Russian going into Ukraine with minimal gear against a well armed Ukrainian army. By the end of the war, the Russian military will be tremendously weakened, and shamed. This makes one less enemy that Europe/NATO has to fear, unless a crazy guy with small hands gets into power after Putin and decides to to prove a point with Nukes.

Aside from weakening their military, these sanctions are making Russians poorer, with less taxes to collect Russian won’t have as much to rebuild its military might, R&D will be scaled back, raises for government employees will need to cease, etc. anyone who thinks sanctions are meant to topple the Russian government needs to re-listen to President Biden’s speech:

Today, I’m authorizing additional strong sanctions and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia.

This is going to impose severe costs on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time.

We have purposefully designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia
and to minimize the impact on the United States and our Allies.

And I want to be clear: The United States is not doing this alone. For months, we’ve been building a coalition of partners representing well more than half of the global economy.

Twenty-seven members of the European Union, including France, Germany, Italy — as well as the United
Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and many others — to amplify the joint impact of our response.

I just spoke with the G7 leaders this morning, and we are in full and total agreement. We will limit Russia’s ability to do business in Dollars, Euros, Pounds, and Yen to be part of the global economy. We will limit their ability to do that. We are going to stunt the ability to finance and grow Rus- — the Russian military.

We’re going to impose major — and we’re going to impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy.


We’ve already seen the impact of our actions on Russia’s currency, the Ruble, which early today hit its weakest level ever — ever in history. And the Russian stock market plunged today. The Russian government’s borrowing rate spiked by over 15 percent.

In today’s actions, we have now sanctioned Russian banks that together hold around $1 trillion in assets.

We’ve cut off Russia’s largest bank — a bank that holds more than one third of Russia’s banking assets by itself — cut it off from the U.S. financial system.

And today, we’re also blocking four more major banks. That means every asset they have in America will be frozen. This includes V.T.B., the second-largest bank in Russia, which has $250 billion in assets.

As promised, we’re also adding names to the list of Russian elites and their family members that are sanctioning — that we’re sanctioning as well.

As I said on Tuesday, these are people who personally gain from the Kremlin’s policies and they should share in the pain. We will keep up this drumbeat of those designations against corrupt billionaires in the days ahead.

On Tuesday, we stopped the Russian government from raising money from U.S. or European investors.

Now, we’re going to apply the same restrictions to Russia’s largest state-owned enterprises — companies with assets that exceed $1.4 trillion.

Some of the most powerful impacts of our actions will come over time as we squeeze Russia’s access to finance and technology for strategic sectors of its economy and degrade its industrial capacity for years to come.

Between our actions and those of our Allies and partners, we estimate that we’ll cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports.


It will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military. It’ll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program. It will hurt their ability to build ships, reducing their ability to compete economically. And it will be a major hit to Putin’s long-term strategic ambitions.

And we’re preparing to do more. In addition to the economic penalties we’re imposing, we’re also taking steps to defend our NATO Allies, particularly in the east.


It’s been weeks since Biden made this speech, with hindsight, can we that the sanctions purpose has been working to do exactly what it’s designed to do? Biden makes no mention of toppling any government, but the severity of these sanctions is working, it’s stalling the Russian military complex, and it will hurt them for years to come.

The Russians might be able to hold onto to some gains in the Donbas, but I knew their chances of conquering the country were nil the day they rolled over the border. I thought they would beat the Ukrainian army in the field and then lose an insurgency, but they proved themselves incompetent at winning in the field.

It does look like the Russians have learned something, but they are restarting from down in a very deep hole they dug for themselves. Their losses have been staggering for any army.
 
The Russians Fighting Putin in Ukraine

Putin may have opened a can of worms with his insane invasion of Ukraine by providing a place for Russians to go to train and organize overthrowing his murderous regime.
The longer Putin drags out this war the more unpopular it’ll get amongst his troops:

 
If the West sends boots on the ground it’ll give Putin a propaganda tool to use Nukes in Ukraine as it would threaten Russia’s existence. How do I know? Look at Vietnam and how the communists used propaganda against the US sending boots on the ground in that country. You don’t risk losing millions of lives and starting world war 3, unless there’s no other alternative. Right now we have options. This isn’t Iraq we’re dealing with, Russia has thousands of Nukes to end life on planet earth 5 times over. My 2cents to give you a differing perspective.
My point was centered around providing more military aid to Ukraine. Things beyond just javelins and NLAWs and bullets. Particularly western fighter jets like F-15 & F-16, Anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, C-RAM, Abrams tanks, and etc.

I concur that it's not time to send in boots on the ground. For all the points you made. But there is a wide spectrum of options, things we could do short of sending in our forces.

I will say, that in the days since I have made that post, that the allies are starting to move in that direction. For now it's centered around Soviet made weapon systems like the S-300. I agree that makes sense in that's what they know how to use and can use it right away. But I am even hearing hints that the US is seeing how Ukraine can stand up to Russia and that they are in for the long haul. Particularly, since the Ukrainian victory in the battle for Kyiv there is a lot less fear that weapons being provided to Ukraine will end up in Russian hands. So I sincerely hope that the long term training has begun or will soon begin for training for modern western weapons systems.

Like you say everything must be done to avoid World War 3. If Ukraine looses, we might just have World War 3. Best to let Ukraine defeat the Russians themselves. They have the will, we just need to help with the means to do so.
 
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My point was centered around providing more military aid to Ukraine. Things beyond just javelins and NLAWs and bullets. Particularly western fighter jets like F-15 & F-16, Anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, C-RAM, Abrams tanks, and etc.

I concur that it's not time to send in boots on the ground. For all the points you made. But there is a wide spectrum of options, things we could do short of sending in our forces.

I will say, that in the days since I have made that post, that the allies are starting to move in that direction. For now it's centered around Soviet made weapon systems like the S-300. I agree that makes sense in that's what they know how to use and can use it right away. But I am even hearing hints that the US is seeing how Ukraine can stand up to Russia and that they are in for the long haul. Particularly, since the Ukrainian victory in the battle for Kyiv there is a lot less fear that weapons being provided to Ukraine will end up in Russian hands. So I sincerely hope that the long term training has begun or will soon begin for training for modern western weapons systems.

Like you say everything must be done to avoid World War 3. If Ukraine looses, we might just have World War 3. Best to let Ukraine defeat the Russians themselves. They have the will, we just need to help with the means to do so.
The Twitter Account of Professor Olga Chyzh is posted above. Here is what she wants for the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

"
.../ Here is a list of weapons that Ukraine needs the most:

1. Long Range Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) – The Ukrainians have a few Soviet-era systems that are progressively being destroyed and they need more to form a ground based “no fly zone” without our direct military intervention;

2. Long Range Artillery and Counter Artillery Assets – These are necessary to counterattack against the Russian seized positions inside occupied Ukraine;

3. Aircraft – While ground based IADs can neutralize the Russian bombers, aircraft will be necessary for close air support of counterattack operations as this is a vital capacity in modern military operations;

4. Anti-Ship Missile (ASM) – The Russian offensive on Odesa and Mariupol rely almost entirely on naval resupply, and disrupting those supply lines will be necessary for the Ukrainian Army to defend its coastal cities; and

5. Modern Western and Soviet Tanks – To help expel Russian forces from the occupied territories, we should provide Ukraine with Russian/Soviet tanks in the short term, as Ukrainian soldiers are familiar with these. The medium-term goal should be to move towards German Leopard or US M1 tanks. The sooner we will start training Ukrainian crews to use these, the faster they will be able to free the occupied territories.

6. Full trade embargo of Russian goods to deprive Russia of the ability to finance its invasion.

These actions are time sensitive with the situation on the ground rapidly evolving. Weapons and sanctions a month from now may be too late. I strongly urge you and your fellow elected officials to act immediately. /...
"
 
Any truth to this - didn’t know about this dynamic in former Soviet colonies.

This is from the perspective of living into one of the other countries forcefully absorbed into the Warsaw Pact after the WWII, not in the former USSR.

The Soviets tried basically to create a superstate, each country becoming a region producing a specific family of products for the bigger whole. Read about the "E.B. Valev's plan". Russian language had been imposed as the primary foreign language of education; most of the local "nomenklatura" had been Moscow educated, especially the army flag ranks. Hell, even the Russian style of patronymics for names had been forced for a while, in countries that had no tradition of it.

So obviously the post Iron Curtain fall reaction has been violent in the other direction (Newton's 3rd principle applied to sociology I guess). Soviet monuments had been erased/razed ASAP, street and cities names that were revering the Soviet mythology had been changed. Even Russian language had been almost completely marginalized in the primary and secondary education.

That was way worse in the parts of Europe that USSR actually incorporated into their structure. National non-Russian culture has been completely erased, most of the upper and middle class that didn't bow was deported to Siberia, or other Far-East destinations, Russian language had been imposed as official and only language for doing business. Numerous Russian colonists have been moved in the homes of the deported families and given plum jobs in the now new soviet republics. That was not only in Europe but as well in the Asian soviet republics. The idea was to destroy any nationalist tendencies that could endanger the building soviet communist paradise . So no surprise that in some places, Ukraine included, the anti-Russian reaction was even stronger than in the independent countries of the Eastern Block.

Directly relevant to Professor Olga Chyzh's account, I remember hearing a Moldovan limerick of that age.
"Mother Russian, father Russian
And Ivan, Moldovan"

Post USSR breakout, the former Russian ethnic nomenklatura had to adapt to not be part of a special class but having to integrate and learn the native language of the countries that they were now living into. That had not been an enjoyable experience and likely is one of the major reason for the "frozen" conflicts in the former USSR republics: Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Donetsk, Luhansk (last two frozen till recently, obviously). All of them are regions were the ethnic Russians are the majority, due to the deport and colonize policy of the Soviet era.

I'm really curious what will be the story of Trasnistria in case of an Ukrainian victory in the current war. Neither Moldova nor Ukraine, I think, will tolerate that Russian enclave between them anymore. It can pose a always present danger to either country... Time will tell...