Looking at the various Maxar sat photos and also the videos of Russian convoys moving southwards and westwards in the Donbass they appear to have learnt tactical spacing. I think these links below will work. Also the Russians appear to have a rather substantial amount of kit and their behaviour is apparently more co-ordinated. The Ukraine has a tough fight on its hand here.
Alexander Dvornikov has record of brutality against civilians in Syria, say US officials; Zelenskiy praise comes after Germany said it would stop using Russian oil and coal by the end of the year
www.theguardian.com
I note all those vehicles have the 'V' symbol which is used by the airborne forces, which are more elite than the general army units. From
UAWarData
there is two VDV combat units in that region, the 51st Guards Airborne Regiment and the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment. Each with about 1 BTG strength.
and there you go, no Marders this year from Germany (which is not Scholz's fault)
It sounds like Rheinmetall is converting Marder IFVs into Marder light tanks. Though the Marders are so old it might take that long just to rehab the IFVs.
My point was centered around providing more military aid to Ukraine. Things beyond just javelins and NLAWs and bullets. Particularly western fighter jets like F-15 & F-16, Anti-aircraft missiles, anti-ship missiles, C-RAM, Abrams tanks, and etc.
I concur that it's not time to send in boots on the ground. For all the points you made. But there is a wide spectrum of options, things we could do short of sending in our forces.
I will say, that in the days since I have made that post, that the allies are starting to move in that direction. For now it's centered around Soviet made weapon systems like the S-300. I agree that makes sense in that's what they know how to use and can use it right away. But I am even hearing hints that the US is seeing how Ukraine can stand up to Russia and that they are in for the long haul. Particularly, since the Ukrainian victory in the battle for Kyiv there is a lot less fear that weapons being provided to Ukraine will end up in Russian hands. So I sincerely hope that the long term training has begun or will soon begin for training for modern western weapons systems.
Like you say everything must be done to avoid World War 3. If Ukraine looses, we might just have World War 3. Best to let Ukraine defeat the Russians themselves. They have the will, we just need to help with the means to do so.
Conversion to any western weapon system that requires a lot of maintenance is not going to happen while the Ukrainians are repelling Russian offensives. All the Ukrainian troops and mechanics are fully engaged in stopping the Russian advances. If this settles down into a static war of attrition they may be able to spare the mechanics to train on how to maintain western equipment. They probably won't be getting the most sophisticated stuff, instead it will likely be simpler weapons which are easier to maintain.
The US gave around 140 M-1 Abrams to Iraq before pulling out. As part of the deal contractors from the US would train Iraqis to maintain them and do the maintenance until the Iraqis were ready. In December 2017 the contractors were suddenly withdrawn without warning and all the Abrams fell into disrepair shortly afterwards. ISIS captured a few, but those that weren't taken out by US airstrikes quickly broke down. Some pro-Iranian militias also took over some of the Abrams, but they broke down or were knocked out too.
You can claim the Ukrainians are more competent and motivated than the Iraqis, which is probably true, but the Iraqis had years to learn how to maintain the tanks with only a low level conflict going on. The Ukrainians are in a fight for the existence of the country with the entire population mobilized. They don't have time to learn.
Most Ukrainian vehicle losses to date (both destroyed and captured) have been in the Donbas region. The terrain makes the tactics that worked so well in the north much more difficult.
Ukraine air force estimates two weeks.
We have 4K F16's sitting in storage. Lets send a steady stream to Ukraine.
Lots stop peeing in our pants over nothing.
Putin won't last long when we adequately supply Ukraine.
The Ukrainians are overly optimistic about using western jets. They have pilots available, but they don't have mechanics with the free time to learn how to maintain western jets. The US has an F-16 conversion training for pilots of other aircraft (almost all trained on US or other NATO aircraft). It takes 20 months of full time enrollment to train to be a jet engine mechanic for the F-16. For maintenance of other systems the training usually runs 18-24 months full time.
Even if they cram the courses down to the bare minimum it will likely take 6 months to just begin to get the mechanics up to speed. If we gave them F-16s now, they would end up flying for a few days and then go down for maintenance where they will become targets on the ground until the mechanics are ready.
Giving Ukrainians F-16s now is like making the down payment on an expensive car for someone and saddling them with crushing car payments. Trying to come up to speed on maintenance would likely do more harm than good.
Scrape the world for Russian jets the Ukrainians know how to maintain and make deals to send them to Ukraine. That's the best course of action until Ukraine has the time to train up on western jets.