In the short term not at all. The Russian economy is not on a war footing right now, which means their military production is still running mostly at peacetime volumes. It's been kicked up in existing plants where possible, but its mostly still at a peacetime level. That means they are not stockpiling uniforms, boots, rifles, other basic infantry gear.
Their boot camps are set up to train two classes of conscripts a year, one batch in the spring (in training now or being fed into combat without training) and one batch in the fall. Each batch is about 150,000 men. They need to expand facilities to train more troops, or through hoards of untrained men into combat with whatever they can scrounge.
No country has fully mobilized for war since the 1940s. The US did a partial mobilization for Korea and Vietnam and I believe the Soviets may have for Afghanistan, but a full war mobilization is a major project. The US had seen WW II coming since the late 1930s and started preparing long before Pearl Harbor. On Dec 8, 1941 full mobilization was started, but it didn't peak until 1944.
The famed 8th Air Force which did the strategic bombing of Germany did a very small scale raid using borrowed British aircraft on July 4th, 1942. But the B-17s didn't conduct their first raid until mid-August 1942 and they didn't start large scale raids until 1943. And Europe was the US's #1 priority in the war.
In WW I the US surprised the world by mobilizing quicker than most people thought was possible. The US entered the war on April 6, 1917 and the first troops to enter action was October 21, 1917, more than 6 months.
And those US mobilizations happened with an economy in good shape and not harmed by any kind of external limits. The Russian economy before the war was vastly weaker than the US economy in the first half of the 20th century (in 1940 the US had 50% of the world's production capacity). It's been weakened further due to the sanctions. The sanctions haven't been perfect, but Russia is facing a lot of shortages that would be needed for mobilization.
They also just lost their biggest chemical factory that is required to make ingredients for munitions.
When a country mobilizes its manpower, that shifts the economy in a large number of ways. All those job vacancies need to be dealt with. Some jobs can be eliminated for the war effort, but others can't. If the municipal workers in Moscow go off to war, somebody has to do their jobs or the lights don't stay on. Those people have to be found and trained.
Ramping up factory production requires more people to go work in the factories. For a fully mobilizes war economy, this is a terrible demographics map
Demographics of Russia - Wikipedia
There is a pinching in the population among those born around 2000. That's the prime demographic to go to war. The largest demographic are born in the late 80s and are in their mid-30s now. Those people are often in mid-career and are holding down jobs of responsibility. Most will still be in good enough health to be drafted and go to war, but the impact on the economy taking those people out of it will be tough to fill.
Once you start drafting 40 and 50 year olds, you're getting into desperation territory. Those people are well suited to something like the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces which are static units of older people who are literally defending their home towns. They are a purely defensive force. Mobilizing them for offensive operations would be difficult.
Russia can fully mobilize its economy and it would help their war effort, but it would have little impact for 6 months, if they're lucky. And they might find resistance to the war climbing as they draft large swaths of the population. They have fewer internal security troops because many were already sent to Ukraine and many were lost. They can't just draft people into those forces because they need people loyal to Putin's regime. At a time when Putin's popularity is fading (full mobilization scenario), they will have trouble finding loyal enough recruits for those forces.
The number I find seem to be all over the place. I found some data compiled by the US government that pegged oil exports via ships to about 2 mil bpd, but looking at it again, the numbers were from 2020, which is a bad year to examine. The links to previous year reports were broken.
This is a recent report from Bloomberg indicating that Russian exports via ship may be down
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
It may be paywalled. I was able to read it on one browser, but not another. It does look like the port in the Black Sea is operating again, but at a very low rate.
It looks like that is the case to a large degree. Though it also looks like a lot of the world is avoiding their oil.
Politically most of the world's population are not open to the deprivations cutting out that much oil. It's easy for western hemisphere countries to pass on Russian oil and it's even easier if your primary mode of transport doesn't use oil.
Europe has more than 2X the population of the United States and only a very small domestic oil supply. They need oil from external sources to full fill their needs. China and India are the world's most populous nations and they have very little oil production of their own.
The entire world has severe pandemic fatigue and is trying to rebuild economies after the havoc the pandemic caused. Getting the public in those countries to agree (or just Europe) to the difficulties restricting oil would cause is a political bridge too far and politicians know it.
I do think that politicians should be talking about what cutting off Russian oil entirely would mean to get the public thinking about it. Just calling to cut off Russian oil without considering the consequences is a fool's errand.
Putin may be holding on to public support, it's hard to tell because people are afraid to talk to pollsters and tell them what they really think. But his recklessness has been causing people within the government to think about a replacement. At least according to WindOfChange. Though there are also war hawks within the military who think Russia isn't doing enough and should be fully mobilizing and/or nuking Ukraine.
www.tagesschau.de
