Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

I'm getting the feeling that Russia has run out of puff, at least for now

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Ukraine on May 2. The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum may be continuing to disrupt Russian efforts on the Izyum axis. Russian troops on the

www.understandingwar.org

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm getting the feeling that Russia has run out of puff, at least for now

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Ukraine on May 2. The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum may be continuing to disrupt Russian efforts on the Izyum axis. Russian troops on the

www.understandingwar.org

Fantastic time for a counter-offensive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Boris Johnson: Ukraine will win war and 'be free' | Sky News

 

[samppa]

Sending untrained or barely trained conscripts with no combat experience against current ukrainian army.. right.. what could go wrong?

 

[Cobos]

Sending untrained or barely trained conscripts with no combat experience against current ukrainian army.. right.. what could go wrong?

Ukranian army runs out of bullets?

Seriously the wierd thing is somehow someone further up the chain of command thinks this will help? After all as rational beings if this actually hinders Russian progress why do it?

 

[samppa]

Ukranian army runs out of bullets?

Seriously the wierd thing is somehow someone further up the chain of command thinks this will help? After all as rational beings if this actually hinders Russian progress why do it?

Military, esp. russian military =! rational thinking

Hah, I still remember when I served as a conscript in Finnish army, over 20 years ago.. someone higher up had drafted the training schedules, and in November we were scheduled for training cross-country skiing.
That year winter was late, so there was no snow, but that didn't stop anyone, so we skied over grass and leaves..

Man, I hope finnish army has evolved some from those days.

 

[X Fan]

Appreciate the posts in this very informative OP......

 

[iPlug]

Fire has ripped through a warehouse storing Russian schoolbooks, days after reports that publishers would remove mentions of Ukraine from the nation’s textbooks.​

Fire Hits Russian Publisher Embroiled in Ukraine Textbook Controversy - The Moscow Times

 

[Tiger]

Fantastic time for a counter-offensive.

Right on the money:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521509674415230977

 

[wws]

Russian general #10 achieved room temperature...

Disaster for Putin as TENTH Russian General 'killed' - Kremlin losing 'one a week'

(Though didn't we see reports of 10 killed a week or so ago?)

 

[Unclepaul]

Russia is furious that other countries have meddled in their private war. Same thing happened when the US began to support the South Viet Nam soldiers. The neighboring Communist countries started pouring in their own soldiers and weapons to push the US out of the fight.

 

[FlatSix911]

Military, esp. russian military =! rational thinking

Hah, I still remember when I served as a conscript in Finnish army, over 20 years ago.. someone higher up had drafted the training schedules, and in November we were scheduled for training cross-country skiing.
That year winter was late, so there was no snow, but that didn't stop anyone, so we skied over grass and leaves..

Man, I hope finnish army has evolved some from those days.

As a veteran, I can say with confidence that this is typical military thinking regardless of the country!

 

[nativewolf]

Russia is furious that other countries have meddled in their private war. Same thing happened when the US began to support the South Viet Nam soldiers. The neighboring Communist countries started pouring in their own soldiers and weapons to push the US out of the fight.

The "neighboring" communists countries had been there prior to WWII if by neighboring you mean USSR. The USA blew it by supporting French instead of going with the Roosevelt pledge to end colonies. Truman was just not as foresightful as Truman. Ho Chi Minh had met with the US Army at the close of the war, like idiots we backed the french that had been brutal and sadistic in Vietnam....all to thwart communism. But anyway, in terms of timing they had already been recruiting him for several years. The feet on the ground knew this and respected him even then.

Neither Laos nor Cambodia were pouring troops into Vietnam. By the 60s the cold war between China and Russia meant that even China was not actively supporting Vietnam. If so it would have been the korean war all over and a very different war indeed. Russia was Vietnams back then and in the subsequent war in Cambodia which actually caused Vietnam and China to come to blows. Vietnams path to independence has been long and tragic and I'm very glad they are finally achieving rewards of the hardwork for which they are famous.

 

[madodel]

Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens

Oh my. A TV anchor is threatening nuclear destruction of the UK. (Pay walled)

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens

Oh my. A TV anchor is threatening nuclear destruction of the UK. (Pay walled)

From the Youtube-channels of The Telegraph and The Sun. The Sun has better video quality:..

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I could have missed it, but since I haven't seen it posted here, and since it's pretty related...

.../ let's talk about nuclear war.

Russia's nuclear threats, and warnings of potential nuclear war growing out of the Ukraine invasion, make for great headlines - but how much substance actually sits behind those threats?

Nothing triggers fear quite like the prospect of a world ending nuclear exchange, but that doesn't make the hype true. While we can't relax entirely (the risk isn't zero), I think we can afford to stop hyping the risk of WWIII quite so much, at least for now. So if you'd like some reverse clickbait where I explain why you probably shouldn't be that afraid, let's get into it.

In this video, I take a look at what Russia's been doing that has caused so much concern around the world, both in terms of demonstrating new weapons and issuing warnings and threats. Then I dive into Russian doctrine around nuclear weapons use, as well as the reality of the nuclear taboo, in order to determine how great the actual threat of Russian nuclear weapon use is.

Finally, I talk a bit about what other nations can do if they're determined to avoid any breach of the nuclear taboo, and keep Russian warheads locked up in their storage bunkers where they belong.

A caveat as always that I am not a nuclear strategist by trade, but there are a number of good talks and articles out there if you would like to know more. I come at this from the perspective of someone who has studied and written on cold war era.

I rely on a number of documents in this piece, a few key ones are listed below:

US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review
https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02...

The Russian Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence - a number of sites host English translations

I found "Nuclear Signalling Between NATO and Russia" by Rear Admiral John Gower, former Assistant Chief of Defence Staff (Nuclear & Chemical, Biological) to be an easy read among the papers I looked at preparing for this presentation - though admittedly his work predates the 2020 basic principles.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resr...

 

[wdolson]

Report today that Putin may declare war on Ukraine. If so is this the beginning of full mobilization? Is this what he'll do on May 9th?

He has a lot of pressure from the war hawks. They seem to think the only reason they are losing is because the army isn't big enough. Russia hasn't come to terms with the fact that they are a shrinking population and throwing bodies at a fight isn't going to work for them anymore.

If they had been fully mobilized at the beginning of this war or had the reserves to throw into the fight in the first weeks, they might have been able to overwhelm Ukraine's army, but they would have still been cut to pieces by the insurgency after the open conflict was over. The Ukrainians bore the brunt

I'm getting the feeling that Russia has run out of puff, at least for now

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Ukraine on May 2. The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum may be continuing to disrupt Russian efforts on the Izyum axis. Russian troops on the

www.understandingwar.org

What's interesting is the Ukrainian salients south of Kharkiv and the other in between Kherson and Mariupol. The Ukrainians have been playing to Russia's weaknesses since the start of the war. The Russians are terrible at supply chain once things get off trains. Hit their supply routes and the army crumbles.

The salient south of Kharkhiv is aimed directly at the one road Russia is using to supply their entire force in Izium. Even if the Ukrainians don't manage to take the road, they can shut it down between nighttime excursions behind Russian lines and artillery. If they do take the road, the Russian troops in Izium will be stranded with no supply.

The southern move is to cut off the isthmus of Crimea stranding their fairly large force in Kherson with no supply.

I think Russia's poor supply situation has already begun to reach critical mass. The generals may be screaming at the troops to take ground, but without fuel or ammunition, there is little they can do.

Fire has ripped through a warehouse storing Russian schoolbooks, days after reports that publishers would remove mentions of Ukraine from the nation’s textbooks.​

Fire Hits Russian Publisher Embroiled in Ukraine Textbook Controversy - The Moscow Times

I always thought of the Russian government as essentially the Russian mafia, but these stories make it more and more an apt analogy.

From the Youtube-channels of The Telegraph and The Sun. The Sun has better video quality:..

The Russians bluff to try and intimidate other countries to do their bidding. They did it all the time in more subtle ways when the world thought they had an effective army. Now that that myth has been blown up, their bluffs are getting more blatant.

I could have missed it, but since I haven't seen it posted here, and since it's pretty related...

Cool, a new Perun video. His analysis is very good.

Trent Telenko had his own analysis on the Russian nuclear arsenal a few days ago. He concluded that if they're lucky only 1/4 would work because they are so poor at maintenance. I suspect most of their tactical nukes are junk because those take a more aggressive maintenance schedule to remain viable than strategic nukes. Unless they put together some new tactical nuke warheads in the last two years, the tactical nukes they have may be junk.

 

[JRP3]

Rumors of Putin getting surgery

 

[MC3OZ]

Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens

Oh my. A TV anchor is threatening nuclear destruction of the UK. (Pay walled)

I've seen reports that the sub in question is in a dry dock somewhere in Russia...

Some unkind people have even suggested that sub might make a good target

The threat to attack the UK with that particular sub is very hollow.

 

[FlatSix911]

Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens

Oh my. A TV anchor is threatening nuclear destruction of the UK. (Pay walled)

Alarming to say the least... here is the non-paywalled text summary.

Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens​

Russian state television has issued a chilling warning that Moscow could wipe out Britain with a nuclear tsunami in retaliation for supporting Ukraine.
In his Sunday evening primetime show, the Channel One anchor Dmitry Kiselyov said a strike by Russia’s Poseidon nuclear underwater drone could turn Britain into a wasteland by drowning the country in a 500-metre tidal wave of radioactive seawater.

“The explosion of this thermonuclear torpedo by Britain’s coastline will cause a gigantic tsunami wave. Having passed over the British Isles, it will turn whatever might be left of them into a radioactive wasteland.”Russian state television has warned that Moscow could wipe out the UK and Ireland with a nuclear tsunami"