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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Rumors of Putin getting surgery


There has been speculation that he had colon cancer and more rumors that it has spread to his brain. He is old for a Russian man, though he also gets better healthcare than most Russians.

Alarming to say the least... here is the non-paywalled text summary.

Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens

Russian state television has issued a chilling warning that Moscow could wipe out Britain with a nuclear tsunami in retaliation for supporting Ukraine.
In his Sunday evening primetime show, the Channel One anchor Dmitry Kiselyov said a strike by Russia’s Poseidon nuclear underwater drone could turn Britain into a wasteland by drowning the country in a 500-metre tidal wave of radioactive seawater.

“The explosion of this thermonuclear torpedo by Britain’s coastline will cause a gigantic tsunami wave. Having passed over the British Isles, it will turn whatever might be left of them into a radioactive wasteland.”Russian state television has warned that Moscow could wipe out the UK and Ireland with a nuclear tsunami"

Somehow I'm skeptical about a 500 m tsunami. The largest flood in the world's geologic record is the Lake Missoula flood that came down the Columbia River Gorge. That was 500m high. It involved the sudden draining of an ice lake that covered about half of Montana and that had to drain through a narrow canyon through the Cascade Mountains (the Gorge).

I'm sure such a drone could do a lot of damage to England, but I very strongly doubt that it would wash over the entire island. A nuclear weapon set off at the mouth of the Thames would send a significant surge up the river and cause a lot of damage to London.

We also don't know if they have an operational Poseidon. They demoed it in 2019, but there is no evidence they built an operational drone. Another thing, Anonymous has been very up front about how they are messing with Russia and they have claimed they now control their military satellite network. The drone is controlled by satellite and AI. I suppose the AI could deliver the weapon, but they may not have the ability to control it from satellite.
 
Alarming to say the least... here is the non-paywalled text summary.
There are posts on Twitter debunking a lot of claims in this threat.

Russia's ability to make the attack. and the damage it would cause have probably been exaggerated.

The UK and NATO allies have plenty of Nuclear deterrents.

While this should be taken seriously, the threats are probably aimed at preventing weapons supplies to Ukraine, or venting anger at weapons already supplied.

We have even had the Russians getting into an argument with Israel and claiming "Hitler was a Jew", which as you can imagine, didn't go down well.

Most of the the Weapons Ukraine needs to win they already have, and previous threats against NATO haven't resulted in concrete action.

I'm even sceptical about Russia doing a general mobilisation, for starters, it is unlikely to change the outcome, but IMO it is a hard sell to the Russian public, why a low key "Special Operation" now needs such drastic action, especially if Russia is already winning. No doubt that is part of the desperate rhetoric on Russian TV. Creating a sense of crisis may work, but it doesn't make people happy, the effect of sanctions also make people unhappy. For regular Russian citizens, I can't see any positive outcomes from the war so far. and there are plenty of negatives.

There are some unconfirmed reports of Russian soldiers fleeing the battlefield and returning to Russia, Even small numbers of them are enough to spread the word on how the war is really going. Returning troops from the north to battle, increases the chances of this happening.

Putin and his leadership team have a lot of eggs to juggle.
 
James Vasquez is fighting with the International Legion. They recently did a raid behind Russian lines where they stoke a bunch of equipment and a Russian AFV.


There are posts on Twitter debunking a lot of claims in this threat.

Russia's ability to make the attack. and the damage it would cause have probably been exaggerated.

The UK and NATO allies have plenty of Nuclear deterrents.

While this should be taken seriously, the threats are probably aimed at preventing weapons supplies to Ukraine, or venting anger at weapons already supplied.

We have even had the Russians getting into an argument with Israel and claiming "Hitler was a Jew", which as you can imagine, didn't go down well.

Most of the the Weapons Ukraine needs to win they already have, and previous threats against NATO haven't resulted in concrete action.

I'm even sceptical about Russia doing a general mobilisation, for starters, it is unlikely to change the outcome, but IMO it is a hard sell to the Russian public, why a low key "Special Operation" now needs such drastic action, especially if Russia is already winning. No doubt that is part of the desperate rhetoric on Russian TV. Creating a sense of crisis may work, but it doesn't make people happy, the effect of sanctions also make people unhappy. For regular Russian citizens, I can't see any positive outcomes from the war so far. and there are plenty of negatives.

There are some unconfirmed reports of Russian soldiers fleeing the battlefield and returning to Russia, Even small numbers of them are enough to spread the word on how the war is really going. Returning troops from the north to battle, increases the chances of this happening.

Putin and his leadership team have a lot of eggs to juggle.

The bulk of the Russian troops are minorities from the countryside. Only a tiny minority are whites from the major cities. They may be returning to the villages where they came from, but the population of the cities aren't hearing about it from the deserters.

Over the last few weeks there have been a lot of acts of sabotage. Some are so far from the Ukrainian border that it's almost certain this is being done by Russian citizens. The divide between the white Russians who run everything and the non-whites from rural areas is probably growing and the discontent they have always had is bubbling up to the surface.

As the Russian military and internal security gets weaker the minorities could be getting bolder and acting out against their overlords. Russia is unraveling from within.
 
How unfortunate all these fires are
1651672333144.png
 
Either these have to be mafia/corrupt oligarchs hiding corruption or locals burning draft data. Many quite the ways from Ukraine.
Or there's been a rash of spontaneous combustion accidents as the police and military are sprucing up their offices with fresh staining of the woodwork and paneling in preparation of the celebration of President Putin's glorious successes on the battlefield. Gotta tightly secure those staining rags after you're done comrades.
 
James Vasquez is fighting with the International Legion. They recently did a raid behind Russian lines where they stoke a bunch of equipment and a Russian AFV.




The bulk of the Russian troops are minorities from the countryside. Only a tiny minority are whites from the major cities. They may be returning to the villages where they came from, but the population of the cities aren't hearing about it from the deserters.

Over the last few weeks there have been a lot of acts of sabotage. Some are so far from the Ukrainian border that it's almost certain this is being done by Russian citizens. The divide between the white Russians who run everything and the non-whites from rural areas is probably growing and the discontent they have always had is bubbling up to the surface.

As the Russian military and internal security gets weaker the minorities could be getting bolder and acting out against their overlords. Russia is unraveling from within.
"The bulk of the Russian troops are minorities from the countryside. Only a tiny minority are whites from the major cities."

US Military's profile is common in that regard (country versus city, not emulating Russia's non-White situation).

Urban cities are underrepresented with the South generating the most recruits versus available population. Makes sense given the political viewpoints of urban versus suburban in today's America (when I served in the Marine Corps in the 70's my platoon bunkmates were from all over the US including a bunch from inner cities, ie NYC & Baltimore).


 
I doubt Russia is too worried about the military might of Hollywood
These sorts of groups are, in my formerly professional opinion, of limited use. Much better to have professional services (medical, intelligence ) as volunteers than units that operate outside a chain of command and might inadvertently trigger a response that is counter to the goals of the current strategy.
 
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"Victory Day" in Russia is only 5 days away but there has been little change in battlefield maps in the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what the Kremlin announces on 5/9/2022 as many have been expecting Putin to try to spin/sell some sort of "win".
Interested to hear others' thoughts, but my guess is they will throw everything at Azovstal steel plant by then so they can more legitimately claim control of Mariupol for the land bridge from Crimea. Apparently Russian forces have recently entered the plant and "bloody battles” are in process.
 
Interested to hear others' thoughts, but my guess is they will throw everything at Azovstal steel plant by then so they can more legitimately claim control of Mariupol for the land bridge from Crimea. Apparently Russian forces have recently entered the plant and "bloody battles” are in process.
That is how I see it, they are preparing for a victory celebration in Mariupol, they desperately want to conquer the Azovstal steel plant, by the target date.

IMO Putin will declare victory, Russia will switch to a more defensive posture and keep throwing missiles at Ukrainian cities.

What Ukraine needs is something like:- Iron Dome - Wikipedia

Putin is probably hoping to hang onto most of the territory Russia has conquered and will rebuild for another bite later on. He will try to get Ukraine to accept a deal on those terms. I think Ukraine will fight on and can eventually reclaim all of the territory Russia has conquered including Crimea.
Russia will try to get sanctions lifted and weaken the case for arms shipments to Ukraine, by claiming they are ready for a peace treaty.

The US and UK don't seem like they will fall for Russia's ploy, or any threats it might make. If the balance of the conflict shifts, Ukraine will need less support overtime. Ukraine is capable of making some of their own weapons.

I also think Ukraine will run the offense better than Russia, and will not suffer the same losses when reclaiming territory. Offense is the tricky side to play, but I think Ukraine will have better intelligence, better strategy and planning, and more capable troops. Also most of the Russian troops have been in the conflict for a long rime and have seen many fellow soldiers die, they are being worn down which is another advantage Ukraine has.

Putin will declare victory regardless, Russia might still push on with the mobilisation and further attacks, but that will be a costly exercise.

I also hope Azovstal hangs on long enough to at least spoil the party.

According to a diplomatic official, Israel will not consider sending offensive arms or advanced defensive technology, such as the Iron Dome anti-missile system, but will attempt to find equipment that can be donated without sparking a crisis with Moscow.
 
"The bulk of the Russian troops are minorities from the countryside. Only a tiny minority are whites from the major cities."

US Military's profile is common in that regard (country versus city, not emulating Russia's non-White situation).

Urban cities are underrepresented with the South generating the most recruits versus available population. Makes sense given the political viewpoints of urban versus suburban in today's America (when I served in the Marine Corps in the 70's my platoon bunkmates were from all over the US including a bunch from inner cities, ie NYC & Baltimore).



Kamil Galeev recently address just this issue:
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

"Some argue that the Russian army is not that different in this regard from the US army, which also heavily recruits from the poor classes. I disagree. In the US recruitment is voluntary. In Russia it's compulsory and dodgeable which makes it effectively the blood tax on the poor

Consider the following. In the US people go to the army to pay for the college. In Russia it's the other way around: people go to the college to avoid the army. You can fund it either by winning a government-funded place (бюджет) or simply by paying tuition fees out of the pocket"

I know some people who went into the US military to escape poverty. They didn't like it, but they willingly went to war because that's what they signed up for.

I recommend reading the entire piece linked above. Galeev has been writing a lot of essays lately about Russian society and culture. He is very qualified to do this, he grew up there and he analyzes cultures and economies for his job at the Wilson Center.

"Victory Day" in Russia is only 5 days away but there has been little change in battlefield maps in the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what the Kremlin announces on 5/9/2022 as many have been expecting Putin to try to spin/sell some sort of "win".

They are cleaning up a part of Mariupol to have a victory parade on May 9. They will tidy up a small section of the city so the people back home think Mariupol is still standing and then leave the rest of the city to rot until the Ukrainians push them out.

The Ukrainians have a deep salient headed for the isthmus of Crimea. They will cut the land bridge to Crimea in another place soon. Though maybe not be May 9.


That impact was a 100 Teraton explosion, the Poseidon may be able to carry up to a 2 Megaton warhead, that's 50,000 times bigger. We don't know what the maximum warhead size the Poseidon can carry, it may be smaller. The biggest warhead ever made was the Tsar bomb with 50-57 MT yield which was never put into service because it was too big to actually use.

What we do and don’t know about Russia’s tsunami-making nuclear drone

There are upper limits on the possible yield for nuclear weapons
Nuclear weapon yield - Wikipedia

Nature frequently dwarfs what humans can do.

How unfortunate all these fires are
View attachment 800390

Some of those events near the Ukrainian border might be Ukrainian military, but most of those are probably sabotage by Russians. I notice a number of police stations. There may be some secret coordination to weaken the police for future unrest?

I have had the feeling for a while that this war is going to end with widespread unrest or civil war in Russia.