Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

They wanted the element of surprise when they did invade.

What is the benefit of denying war will be officially declared in 4 days?

The problem is that Putin and the Kremlin lies about absolutely everything. It's impossible to know what they will actually do...

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Pope Francis has taken a pretty shameful position on the Ukraine invasion- laying the blame on NATO and Ukraine. I'm glad he's admonishing Kirill, but that doesn't come close to redeeming him for the awful things he has already said.

As an atheist, let's just say that nothing that a 'Pope' does will surprise me...

 

[CHGolferJim]

Whoops, left off three zeros.



There are people in the US who have told reporters that they would rather have Putin as their president than Joe Biden or said that better Russian than Democrat. At minimum, send those people to Russia. Maybe some of them will get a clue that the people they idolize are much worse than the people they hate here.



The Russians are learning, but it's been painfully slow. They are being more cautious then they were in the first days of the war. However, if they do take anything away from this war, they should realize that if the Ukrainians can do as much as they can eliminating senior officers with their hodge podge of former Soviet equipment combined with some home grown and modern equipment from other countries, the US intelligence's ability to track their senior staff combined with US weapons would mean the US could wipe the board of most senior officers in a few days.

If I was a Russian officer, I would be terrified of NATO getting into this war.



The Ukrainians are on the offensive now. They aren't talking about it much and the media isn't picking up on it. Most of what they are covering is the fighting around Kharkhiv.

Institute for the Study of War

The salient around Molodova is much wider than it was a couple of days ago. I thought they were pushing towards Kupoansk, but they widened the salient instead. They may still push through to Kupiansk in the coming days.

View attachment 800692

Then in the south the gray area that ends near Nova Kakhova was blue a few days ago. It looks like they're are firming up their flanks around Novovorontsovka instead of pushing further south. These are areas the Ukrainians have advertised they are advancing. The gray salient may have grown, but neither side is talking about it.

View attachment 800693

The Ukrainians defended Mariupol and a relatively small force tied down a much larger Russian force for two months. They also inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians. The Russians won a battle they should have won anyway, but it took 30X longer and had significant casualties. The definition of a Pyrrhic Victory.

Russia is running out of everything. Missile attacks are way down from a month ago. Most of their land based missile systems are silent because they are out of ammunition. Most of the missile strikes in recent weeks have been coming from the Black Sea. Their frigates and more recently their submarines have been firing missiles into Ukraine. Anti-shipping missile parts have been found around strikes indicating the Russians are so low on naval to land missiles that they are pressing anti-shipping missiles into the role. They have probably stripped their navy to do that.

Additionally their land based missile systems that didn't get committed to the war probably had their missiles stripped too.

Russia's ability to make more weapons has been compromised from the start. In the first weeks of the war their aircraft started dropping dumb bombs because they were out of smart bombs. They also lost the ability to make more smart bombs and missiles due to the sanctions. All their smart weapons require parts from Europe. Their tank factory also shut down in the early weeks of the war because of a lack of parts.

In the last few weeks they have been losing other military manufacturing. The chemical plant that burned to the ground near Moscow was the only plant in Russia that made some key chemicals needed to make gun ammunition and rocket fuel. The other day a munitions plant blew up and burned.

Rumor has it that on May 9 the Russians will formally declare war so they can fully mobilize the army. That sounds good on paper, but they are short of everything they need to do that: uniforms, boots, small arms, probably ammunition, etc. Even if they skip training all those raw recruits and send them directly into combat, it will take 2 months minimum before they get anybody on the front line. In the meantime the army they have is withering on the vine and the Ukrainians are starting on the offensive.

In two months time the Russians will be starting from square one (pushed back into Russia) with vastly poorer quality troops and a lot of equipment that's broken and needs to be rebuilt before they can be used. Their supply situation will be worse than it is now.

Russia is running out of the ability to make what weapons they can make without outside help due to sabotage. They also started the war with a bottleneck in their supply chain which was how many trucks they had in the army. They had vastly fewer than they should have had for an army their size. Those trucks have mostly been destroyed now. The ones that haven't have been beaten to death.

Trent Telenko was involved in rehabbing US trucks after two years of war in Iraq. US trucks are babied compared to Russian trucks and the US trucks had 20-30 years of wear on them after 2 years.

The Russians have a compromised ability to manufacture supply and they have an ever diminishing ability to deliver it. They are stripping Russia of civilian trucks to fill out their losses, which is destroying the trucks (civilian trucks aren't built to take the abuse they are getting) and it's leaving their economy with no trucks to move goods, including war goods.

All the sabotage attacks deep in Russia is an indication that they have a serious problem with an internal insurgency brewing from their own citizens. They are facing a possible rebellion or civil war. Conscription is already very, very unpopular in Russia. Draft riots are a thing many countries have faced. Russia could see a massive draft riot that ends up turning into some kind of significant, long lasting unrest and could break up the country.

This war is not going to settle into a war of attrition. Russia's army is going to start falling apart within the next month and Ukraine is getting stronger every day.

Thank you for so many informative posts. If you are largely correct in this one, it will be wunderbahr.

 

[RobStark]

Pope Francis has taken a pretty shameful position on the Ukraine invasion- laying the blame on NATO and Ukraine. I'm glad he's admonishing Kirill, but that doesn't come close to redeeming him for the awful things he has already said.

This is not accurate.

"ROME — Pope Francis said that NATO “barking” at Russia’s door may have led to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and said he has offered to meet the Russian president in Moscow.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Francis reflected on Russia’s lethal aggression toward its neighbor and said while he might not go as far as saying NATO’s presence in nearby countries “provoked” Moscow, it “perhaps facilitated” the invasion.

Francis also condemned the “brutality” of the war and compared it to Rwanda’s civil war in the 1990s, which resulted in a genocide of the Tutsi minority.

The Holy See has been asking since mid-March for a meeting between Francis and Putin in Moscow, the pope said. “Of course we needed the leader of the Kremlin to allocate a window of time. We haven’t yet had any response, and we are still trying, even if I fear that Putin can’t and doesn’t want to have this meeting at this time.”

In the interview, Francis ruled out going to Kyiv for now: “First I have to go to Moscow, first I have to meet Putin.”

Francis said he had canceled a meeting with Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church and a key backer of Putin who has justified the war, as they both thought it would look “ambiguous” — but in a phone call said he warned Kirill not to “turn himself into Putin’s altar boy.”

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Francis has repeatedly criticized the invasion, while avoiding naming Putin explicitly, in line with the Vatican’s foreign policy of keeping the door open for possible dialogue.

The Russian embassy to the Holy See did not immediately respond to phone calls or an emailed request for comment. A spokesman for the Vatican did not respond to request for comment."

Pope says NATO may have caused Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Francis says transatlantic military alliance was ‘barking’ at Russia’s door.

www.politico.eu

This is what the Vatican always does. It never completely blames one side in a conflict. So it may possibly act as a mediator in a conflict/war to bring about a peace.

 

[RobStark]

The problem is that Putin and the Kremlin lies about absolutely everything. It's impossible to know what they will actually do...

When the Kremlin said they would meet Ukraine officials in Turkey for talks was that a lie?

Again what would be the benefit to this lying about declaration of war in four days?

 

[SmokyPeat]

This is not accurate.

"ROME — Pope Francis said that NATO “barking” at Russia’s door may have led to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and said he has offered to meet the Russian president in Moscow.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Francis reflected on Russia’s lethal aggression toward its neighbor and said while he might not go as far as saying NATO’s presence in nearby countries “provoked” Moscow, it “perhaps facilitated” the invasion.

Francis also condemned the “brutality” of the war and compared it to Rwanda’s civil war in the 1990s, which resulted in a genocide of the Tutsi minority.

The Holy See has been asking since mid-March for a meeting between Francis and Putin in Moscow, the pope said. “Of course we needed the leader of the Kremlin to allocate a window of time. We haven’t yet had any response, and we are still trying, even if I fear that Putin can’t and doesn’t want to have this meeting at this time.”

In the interview, Francis ruled out going to Kyiv for now: “First I have to go to Moscow, first I have to meet Putin.”

Francis said he had canceled a meeting with Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church and a key backer of Putin who has justified the war, as they both thought it would look “ambiguous” — but in a phone call said he warned Kirill not to “turn himself into Putin’s altar boy.”

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Francis has repeatedly criticized the invasion, while avoiding naming Putin explicitly, in line with the Vatican’s foreign policy of keeping the door open for possible dialogue.

The Russian embassy to the Holy See did not immediately respond to phone calls or an emailed request for comment. A spokesman for the Vatican did not respond to request for comment."

Pope says NATO may have caused Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Francis says transatlantic military alliance was ‘barking’ at Russia’s door.

www.politico.eu

This is what the Vatican always does. It never completely blames one side in a conflict. So it may possibly act as a mediator in a conflict/war to bring about a peace.

I maintain that the Pope is laying blame for Russia's illegal invasion on NATO. And it is shameful. NATO has not been pressuring any countries in the region to join the alliance. Least of all Ukraine. The Pope is all too eager to go to Russia and speak with Putin, but seems completely uninterested in visiting Ukraine. In the very limited conversations he has had with president Zelensky, his weak advice was not to resist the Russian invasion. I understand that many Catholics feel a close affinity with the Pope, but this Pope has taken a rather despicable stance on the war, imo.

Pope Francis Says NATO Started War in Ukraine by ‘Barking at Putin’s Door’

The pontiff defended Putin and claimed—without foundation—that it was “others who created the conflict” in Ukraine.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[RobStark]

I maintain that the Pope is laying blame for Russia's illegal invasion on NATO. And it is shameful. NATO has not been pressuring any countries in the region to join the alliance. Least of all Ukraine. The Pope is all too eager to go to Russia and speak with Putin, but seems completely uninterested in visiting Ukraine. In the very limited conversations he has had with president Zelensky, his weak advice was not to resist the Russian invasion. I understand that many Catholics feel a close affinity with the Pope, but this Pope has taken a rather despicable stance on the war, imo.

Pope Francis Says NATO Started War in Ukraine by ‘Barking at Putin’s Door’

The pontiff defended Putin and claimed—without foundation—that it was “others who created the conflict” in Ukraine.

www.thedailybeast.com

I agree with the Pope that results are more important than ideological purity.

Visiting Ukraine and meeting with Zelensky will not end the war. It will anger Putin.

Visiting Russia and meeting Putin has the possibility of ending the war. Because it is Putin who started the war and Putin has the power to end it.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Putin could give a damn about the Pope.
I rate Francis "barking at Russia's border" statement right up there with Lavrov's "Hitler was a Jew" garbage.

 

[SageBrush]

As an atheist, let's just say that nothing that a 'Pope' does will surprise me...

As another atheist, I recognize that some popes are better than others. This latest one never really ruffled my feathers until the idiotic statement that Ukraine and NATO caused the invasion.

Is it a Catholic Church thing to not recognize self-determination ? I do not wish to antagonize here, I just don't know Catholic ideology (and for the most part try to stay as far away from churches as possible.)

 

[SageBrush]

I agree with the Pope that results are more important than ideological purity.

A stance of opposing self-defense, or only supporting aggression ?
I think the pope would serve better if he returns to cleaning up the clergy of pedophiles.

 

[wdolson]

They wanted the element of surprise when they did invade.

What is the benefit of denying war will be officially declared in 4 days?

The Russians may be telling the truth. They do occasionally, but they also lie about things that are obviously lies quite a bit too. Lying about the invasion on the eve of the invasion didn't really create any surprise for the invasion. Anyone who understood military knew it was happening.

The Russians may think declaring war will strike fear in the heart of the Ukrainians or something. They seem to think what they say has a bigger impact on the world than it does.

Excellent analysis, but few bones to pick though

No argument, they deserve it, but while at it can we send the rabid pro-communist extreme left ones to Venezuela, North Korea or Cuba for a life changing experience too? All that horseshoe stuff about extremes...


I'm afraid that grey salient is actually the Dnipro River. That's why is coded the same color as the Black Sea. The Ukrainian offensive around Novovorontsovka I think is about trying to cut the Russians from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Dam; it has a 2 lane road and railway bridge next of the dam. Securing it provides a direct route to Crimea.
View attachment 800757

The only other Dnipro River crossing to the south is east of Kherson, about 25 miles away from this dam, the Antonovskiy Bridge. And that's it all the way to the sea. I doubt that the Russian will retreat and leave it intact if they have to. Without either of the bridges there is no way to reach Crimea short of Zaporizhzhia, and that's 150 miles to the NE from Kakhovka. Losing both southern Dnipro crossings would make the logistics of liberating Crimea extremely difficult.

Your right. I saw a salient the other day on ISW. They may have removed it from the map because they couldn't verify it.

As another atheist, I recognize that some popes are better than others. This latest one never really ruffled my feathers until the idiotic statement that Ukraine and NATO caused the invasion.

Is it a Catholic Church thing to not recognize self-determination ? I do not wish to antagonize here, I just don't know Catholic ideology (and for the most part try to stay as far away from churches as possible.)

I was raised Catholic and my mother taught the Catholic equivalent of Sunday school for 40 years, though I'm not anymore. The Christian religions that are not self-deterministic tend to be based on Calvinism. Catholic teaching is very much everyone is fully responsible for what they do and have complete free will to change their behavior. Vatican II Catholic teaching (introduced in the 1960s) is very focused on redemption rather than fire and brimstone. Though there are still old school Catholics out there too.

I've known people raised Catholic in other parts of the US and their education was more conservative than mine or my partner. I grew up in Los Angeles and my partner in Portland, OR. We were both raised Catholic and left as young adults. She came of age in the early 70s and I in the mid-80s.

 

[SageBrush]

Catholic teaching is very much everyone is fully responsible for what they do and have complete free will to change their behavior.

By self-determination I meant freedom, and I don't mean the trumpish caricature.

 

[nativewolf]

The problem is that Putin and the Kremlin lies about absolutely everything. It's impossible to know what they will actually do...

Assume they are always lying

 

[mars_or_bust]

Assume they are always lying

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” –

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

 

[nativewolf]

Thread by @HoansSolo on Thread Reader App

@HoansSolo: Fascinating 🧵👇: The narrative that NATO training is the main cause for Ukraine's mil. performance says perhaps more about our own perceptions of the (inflated) military value of special operations forces...…

threadreaderapp.com

Very interesting read on the Ukrainian army's efforts at modernization via training a professional NCO. How important was it? Debated in the thread. Did I know they had been doing it? No I did not, I found the thread very interesting.

 

[wdolson]

By self-determination I meant freedom, and I don't mean the trumpish caricature.

All religions direct thinking to one degree or another. Some are very strict about it while others give more emphasis on thinking things through and coming to your own decisions. The old Catholic church was more the former, but post Vatican II is more the letter.

I went to a Catholic high school and noted that while the priests all towed the party line about abortion and contraception (both banned by the Vatican), they did it with a nod and wink especially contraception. They only said it because they had to, most didn't appear to believe it.

Thread by @HoansSolo on Thread Reader App

@HoansSolo: Fascinating 🧵👇: The narrative that NATO training is the main cause for Ukraine's mil. performance says perhaps more about our own perceptions of the (inflated) military value of special operations forces...…

threadreaderapp.com

Very interesting read on the Ukrainian army's efforts at modernization via training a professional NCO. How important was it? Debated in the thread. Did I know they had been doing it? No I did not, I found the thread very interesting.

Some western officers like Mark Hertling were involved in getting Ukraine up to speed and they believe it's been critical in their war effort. I tend to agree with them.

 

[SageBrush]

All religions direct thinking to one degree or another. Some are very strict about it while others give more emphasis on thinking things through and coming to your own decisions. The old Catholic church was more the former, but post Vatican II is more the letter.

My fault for not being clear what I am trying to say.

Russia views Ukraine as part of Russia, or perhaps a vassal state.
Ukraine does not apparently. They want to be independent, and perhaps have a western lean.

When the pope criticizes Ukraine for wanting independence and choosing a somewhat Western outlook and thereby leading to Putin's invasion, to my mind he is supporting Russian violence over self determination.

By analogy, a woman who resists sexual advances may end up being raped. The pope is blaming the woman.

 

[[email protected]]

USD RUB...https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=1M

 

[MC3OZ]

USD RUB...https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=1M

Ruble and Rubble ... Hmm not a coincidence..

 

[wdolson]

My fault for not being clear what I am trying to say.

Russia views Ukraine as part of Russia, or perhaps a vassal state.
Ukraine does not apparently. They want to be independent, and perhaps have a western lean.

When the pope criticizes Ukraine for wanting independence and choosing a somewhat Western outlook and thereby leading to Putin's invasion, to my mind he is supporting Russian violence over self determination.

By analogy, a woman who resists sexual advances may end up being raped. The pope is blaming the woman.

I thought you were asking about Catholic teaching.

I missed the original story so I looked it up. He said that NATO's eastward movement contributed to the Russian invasion. There is a reasonable analysis supporting that.

Russia is very paranoid about protecting it's territory and always has been. The older Russians grew up steeped in the meme that the United States wanted to take over Russia. For people who live outside the Russian bubble, it's patently ridiculous, but you have to understand where people are, not just tell them they are being silly.

When the USSR broke up the US and other NATO members agreed NATO would not spread eastward into the former Warsaw Pact countries. But the members of those eastern countries had other ideas and constantly begged NATO to join. The western democracies had changes of administrations and the the new leaders forgot either conveniently or for some other reason and the begging got answered.

This could be a situation where two sides each seeing a threat from the other, they each upped the ante until we got here. So inadvertently, NATO's eastern expansion may have contributed to Putin and Russia's paranoia which contributed to the plan to rebuild the Russian Empire to defend Mother Russia.

The eastern European countries that were begging to join NATO also had valid historical reasons. They were conquered twice in the last ~80 years and wanted some assurances that wouldn't happen again. NATO membership gives them the best chance of that.

There are many players in this situation who have decades and even centuries of pain they are dealing with, on both sides. Cultural PTSD.