I'm sorry but I'm on a phone and cannot post links.
Looks like Russia has been trying to turn snake Island into a substitute AA site to replace the sunk Moskva. Looks like Ukr has completely nixed that attempt. So far I think the UKr have sunk two FPBs and one LCT as well as destroying all the major hardware the Russians had landed on the island.
No real update on that Russian frigate that may have been hit. That is two of that class of frigate that have been rumoured to have been damaged . Hard to be sure .
Ukr has lost Popasna.
The Russian thrust southwards through Izim to try to encircle the Ukr forces in the Donbass is itself coming under increasing pressure in its rear. Much more of this and it will be questionable who is encircling whom.
Will the real Putin show himself in Moscow ? How will he be ?
This dovetails with your thoughts on the fighting in Donbas
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App
There is a threatening email that claims it's from resistance fighters in Russia that plan to take action on May 9. My partner saw rumors that there might be an attempt to disrupt Putin's grand live television event on the same day. I also saw where somebody in Russia is making Molotov cocktails and putting their own artisan brew labels on them that translates into something rude about Putin.
A few days ago somebody threw a Molotov cocktail at a national guard bus near Red Square. The police are so nervous they arrested some teenagers for dancing on the sidewalk about a block from the Kremlin.
A live television event with a large viewing audience would be the ideal time for the rebels to make some noise and let the country know that there are Russians willing to fight the government. Though it would also be very risky.
Russia only has enough riot police to put down unrest in one large city and no more (maybe less than this now because some were sent to Ukraine). Putin has probably pulled all the riot police to Moscow to cover the May 9 parade, so the rebels could strike in many other cities around the country with a lower risk of getting caught.
May 9 is a wild card. Putin could announce he's declaring war on Ukraine, there could be rebel violence across the country, there could be violence in Moscow itself, or a number of things at once. Or it could just be another Red Square parade with not much of note happening.