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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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I'm sorry but I'm on a phone and cannot post links.

Looks like Russia has been trying to turn snake Island into a substitute AA site to replace the sunk Moskva. Looks like Ukr has completely nixed that attempt. So far I think the UKr have sunk two FPBs and one LCT as well as destroying all the major hardware the Russians had landed on the island.

No real update on that Russian frigate that may have been hit. That is two of that class of frigate that have been rumoured to have been damaged . Hard to be sure .

Ukr has lost Popasna.

The Russian thrust southwards through Izim to try to encircle the Ukr forces in the Donbass is itself coming under increasing pressure in its rear. Much more of this and it will be questionable who is encircling whom.

Will the real Putin show himself in Moscow ? How will he be ?

This dovetails with your thoughts on the fighting in Donbas
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

There is a threatening email that claims it's from resistance fighters in Russia that plan to take action on May 9. My partner saw rumors that there might be an attempt to disrupt Putin's grand live television event on the same day. I also saw where somebody in Russia is making Molotov cocktails and putting their own artisan brew labels on them that translates into something rude about Putin.

A few days ago somebody threw a Molotov cocktail at a national guard bus near Red Square. The police are so nervous they arrested some teenagers for dancing on the sidewalk about a block from the Kremlin.

A live television event with a large viewing audience would be the ideal time for the rebels to make some noise and let the country know that there are Russians willing to fight the government. Though it would also be very risky.

Russia only has enough riot police to put down unrest in one large city and no more (maybe less than this now because some were sent to Ukraine). Putin has probably pulled all the riot police to Moscow to cover the May 9 parade, so the rebels could strike in many other cities around the country with a lower risk of getting caught.

May 9 is a wild card. Putin could announce he's declaring war on Ukraine, there could be rebel violence across the country, there could be violence in Moscow itself, or a number of things at once. Or it could just be another Red Square parade with not much of note happening.
 
The graph shows the USD dropping versus the Ruble.
If you zoom out to 6 month view, you can see that after the start of the war the USD spiked up to 139 Ruble for $1USD, or looking from the other side the Ruble lost a lot of value in March. However, by this time the graph dipped below the pre-war value of ~77 to the current ~67, meaning the USD is valued at fewer Rubles, thus the Ruble is stronger now than it was prior to the war!

This seems to suggest that either the sanctions are not working, or Putin's counter to require payment in Ruble for oil/gas is more effective than the sanctions.


It’s a fake rate set by RusGov (see JCarioca explanation above).
 
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Another excellent analysis of the conflict
 
wapo pay Wall?

I don’t what he’s drinking (both uk main parities have had their version of COVID party gate) but NATO with US backing wins every non-nuclear ground war against Russia. The gating factor is always the Nuclear option in which of course we all lose.

Time may be on our side with Putin’s illness combined with internal dissent removing him from the lead but what we don’t know is who would replace him.

That’s actually more worrisome for me because that someone could be just as bad or worse than Putin.
 
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Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
The graph shows the USD dropping versus the Ruble.
If you zoom out to 6 month view, you can see that after the start of the war the USD spiked up to 139 Ruble for $1USD, or looking from the other side the Ruble lost a lot of value in March. However, by this time the graph dipped below the pre-war value of ~77 to the current ~67, meaning the USD is valued at fewer Rubles, thus the Ruble is stronger now than it was prior to the war!

This seems to suggest that either the sanctions are not working, or Putin's counter to require payment in Ruble for oil/gas is more effective than the sanctions.

The Russians are manipulating the price of the ruble to sow confusion about whether the sanctions are working or not. But the ruble is not a free floating currency anymore, it's manipulated.

To some extent Russia has gone back to the cold war ruble which was not openly traded. There was an official exchange rate the USSR and a real exchange rate that was much lower. The same thing is happening again.
Analysis: Russia's rouble rebound not quite what it seems

If you go to xe.com and compare the exchange rates of various currencies to each other, the dollar has risen vs most other currencies since the war started. Vs the yen the US dollar is the strongest it's been in over 10 years. It's near a 10 year high vs the Euro, and strong against the pound. The Euro vs the ruble chart is an identical pattern to the ruble vs the dollar.

The Russian government is currently the primary buyer of rubles followed by Russians who owned foreign currency who have been forced to exchange it for rubles. Nobody outside Russia wants rubles. They tried to force demand by requiring payment for gas in rubles, but most countries said no.

It reminds me of a story of someone who bought a penny stock for years. He kept buying a bit at a time and saw the price rise over the years. The stock finally reached his sell price and he told his broker to sell. The broker replied "to who? you've been the only one buying that stock for years!"

There is going to come a point where all their tricks to prop up the ruble artificially will run out and the ruble will crash down to where it belongs.


In a conventional war NATO definitely has the advantage. Russia's static air defenses around their cities might still be potent, but their mobile AA defense has proven to be on the weak side. Their army has been badly damaged, and their navy has always been weak vs the US.

A nuclear war is a big question mark. On paper Russia has around 6000 warheads, but considering how small their military budget is and how bad their maintenance of everything else is, I strongly doubt they all work. The US spends $10 million per year per and does maintenance on about 1000 warheads a year. The US spends 1/5 of Russia's entire military budget just maintaining its nuclear forces.

The dud rate for US nukes is probably very low if they need to be used. I would bet a fair percentage of Russia's arsenal has not been touched in 30 years. They have a few warheads they've built in the last few years that would probably work, but the rest of the arsenal is questionable IMO. The top Russian generals are probably aware of this and don't want the world to know how bad it is. They are making excuses publicly for why they are losing in Ukraine, but internally they probably realize their army was always a paper tiger and now the secret is out, making Russia weaker in the eyes of the world.

wapo pay Wall?

I don’t what he’s drinking (both uk main parities have had their version of COVID party gate) but NATO with US backing wins every non-nuclear ground war against Russia. The gating factor is always the Nuclear option in which of course we all lose.

Time may be on our side with Putin’s illness combined with internal dissent removing him from the lead but what we don’t know is who would replace him.

That’s actually more worrisome for me because that someone could be just as bad or worse than Putin.

Kamil Galeev talked about this a few weeks ago. He said he has sparred with Navalny and his people online and he isn't that impressed with Navalny's positions. Navalny buys into the idea that Ukraine really is a part of Russia just like Putin.

The "liberals" in Russia are still pretty anti-west and most westerners would consider them pretty conservative.
 
Yes @wdolson I think that set of articles from Galeev really was illuminating: Navalny same species just different stripes. Thanks for linking to that one. I think you'll enjoy the institute for the study of war analysis from today. Very interesting...Kiev is making a strong push in the north, Russia putting in a new tank division.
 
In a conventional war NATO definitely has the advantage. Russia's static air defenses around their cities might still be potent, but their mobile AA defense has proven to be on the weak side. Their army has been badly damaged, and their navy has always been weak vs the US.

A nuclear war is a big question mark. On paper Russia has around 6000 warheads, but considering how small their military budget is and how bad their maintenance of everything else is, I strongly doubt they all work. The US spends $10 million per year per and does maintenance on about 1000 warheads a year. The US spends 1/5 of Russia's entire military budget just maintaining its nuclear forces.

The dud rate for US nukes is probably very low if they need to be used. I would bet a fair percentage of Russia's arsenal has not been touched in 30 years. They have a few warheads they've built in the last few years that would probably work, but the rest of the arsenal is questionable IMO. The top Russian generals are probably aware of this and don't want the world to know how bad it is. They are making excuses publicly for why they are losing in Ukraine, but internally they probably realize their army was always a paper tiger and now the secret is out, making Russia weaker in the eyes of the world.
So they can only take out the top 200 cities in the world with 2MT nukes?

This is insane to entertain ‘questions’ about a nuclear war. The answer is pretty simple: we all lose.

Seems mutually assured destruction doesn’t impress like it used to.
 
Hitlerjugend.
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I am honestly starting to think that Putin tries sincerely to follow into Hitler's steps. History doesn't repeat itself but sure at hell, it rhymes. Let speed it it up to the part where he kills himself in the bunker under Kremlin.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" - George Santayana
 
Yes @wdolson I think that set of articles from Galeev really was illuminating: Navalny same species just different stripes. Thanks for linking to that one. I think you'll enjoy the institute for the study of war analysis from today. Very interesting...Kiev is making a strong push in the north, Russia putting in a new tank division.

I read it from the link you posted. I think you mean around Kharkhiv? The Russians left the Kyiv area some weeks ago.

The article also says there are elements of the 1st Tank Army being deployed around Kharkhiv. There have been elements of this larger unit involved in Ukraine since the start of the war. They were initially used in the north and withdrawn with the other units. They have probably gotten some replacements to a point where they might be up to something resembling fighting strength.
1st Guards Tank Army - Wikipedia

The Russians have always had smaller units than other armies. A WW II division was usually about 10,000 men in most armies, but many Soviet divisions were closer to 5000. A corps is a group of divisions, in most armies 3, but Soviet corps were often just 2 divisions. An army is a group of corps. In 1945 it was 2 corps.

Today it's composed of:

1st Guards Tank Army (Russia)

The only units I have read about in the fight are the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division and the 4th guards Tank Division.

Guards units were the elite units in the Imperial Russian army and the title was restored under Stalin and given to units that performed well in combat in WW II. Any unit of any size could become a Guard unit, so there were some units smaller than divisions, divisions, corps, and armies that got the distinction. Many units were disbanded during the cold war or after the fall of the USSR, but have been rebuilt in recent years. For example the 1st Guards Army was reinstated in 2014.

The first T-90M was knocked out near Kharkhiv the other day. The T-90M is Russia's newest operational tank. The 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Div has all the T-90Ms in the Russian army. They only have about 100 of them and they have no ability to make more.

Kharkhiv is important for Ukraine. They want to push the Russians out of artillery range so they can start cleaning up the city. That part of the war is probably less important to Russia right now, except for the threat to their supply lines to Izium. If the Ukrainians can push far enough east south of Kharkhiv, they can slice the supply lines to their sizable forces in Izium and trap them in a pocket.

So they can only take out the top 200 cities in the world with 2MT nukes?

This is insane to entertain ‘questions’ about a nuclear war. The answer is pretty simple: we all lose.

Seems mutually assured destruction doesn’t impress like it used to.

They don't want to chance it because on a first strike, it's quite possible a large number of ICBMs won't make it out of the silo and the return strike would wipe Russia off the map. The fuel those missiles use is very corrosive and eats up the missile over time. During the Soviet era they would launch the ICBMs without a warhead into Siberia every few years and put in a new missile. The US rebuilds its missiles. The Russians haven't cycled many of those missiles in 30 years.

My point is they don't want to start a nuclear fight because they probably know they can't carry through.


Hitlerjugend.
View attachment 802010
I am honestly starting to think that Putin tries sincerely to follow into Hitler's steps. History doesn't repeat itself but sure at hell, it rhymes. Let speed it it up to the part where he kills himself in the bunker under Kremlin.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" - George Santayana


Putin just finished giving his May 9th speech and said just the usual things. If anything about Russia's strategy in Ukraine is changing, news about it wasn't delivered today.

Yup, looks like last option from my list: not much that was newsworthy.

So they cancel the fly past because the planes are all in Ukraine or shot down or that they don't trust the russian airforce not to drop a real bomb on putins head?
All those soldiers marching past were carrying unloaded weapons, but a pilot could decide to go kamikaze and there would be little anyone could do to stop them.

The Russians did manage to wipe out one of their own positions with a thermobaric rocket attack
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the occupiers burned their own positions with the Solntsepek system