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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Apologize if this has been posted before but this article explains Russia's resource policy:

 
Looks like the next big date is May 25th. Unless extension to their exemption is given, Russia will likely default on their debt obligations by the end of the month.

I guess we could always see an extension pushed thru, but the optics would be unpleasant.

 
A significant number of humans are xenophobic. At one time humans were contending with other hominids, but the last of our hominid cousins went extinct before recorded history started. And other groups of hominids could be dangerous.

Instinct is difficult to override. It can be done with education and thought, but a lot of people are somewhat lacking in both and authoritarian leaders encourage it. Unthinking and ignorant populations are easier to control.
You mean with stuff like this?
Florida rejects 54 math books, claiming critical race theory appeared in some
 
This seems legit. It links to a petition on change.org. It's an attempt to save the Ukrainians who are still in the city. Almost 1,2 million have signed as of now.


Link to the petition:

SAVE MARIUPOL​

We, the undersigned activists, non-governmental and non-profit organizations, politicians and celebrities, call on the United Nations, and in particular the Secretary-General of the United Nations, and regional leaders from around the world to launch an urgent "extraction" procedure, namely:

1 To resume the eleventh special session of the UN General Assembly for consideration of the humanitarian situation in Mariupol resulting from the aggression against Ukraine.

2. We demand that the General Assembly adopt a resolution obliging the Russian Federation, the aggressor country, to ensure the evacuation of all people to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government or to the territory of third safe countries.

3. We call on all world leaders to take all necessary measures to ensure and implement the resolution, and to act as guarantors of security.

The civilian population, as well as the soldiers defending the city, are experiencing inhumane conditions: a number of world leaders have already recognized the actions of the aggressor's country as genocide of the Ukrainian people. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to violate the rules of war, which is already partially reflected in the UN General Assembly Resolution of April 7, 2022 on the suspension of membership rights of the Russian Federation in the Human Rights Council. The enemy violates the rules of warfare, uses non-traditional weapons, regularly and purposefully attacks the locations of civilians, wounded servicemen, the bodies of fallen servicemen.

Despite the inhumane conditions, the Ukrainian military controls the territory of the Azovstal plant, which, in particular, serves as a shelter for civilians and the wounded. Such conditions are a real humanitarian catastrophe, artificially created by the Russian Federation. There is a significant shortage of food, medicine, hygiene and personal protective equipment in the city. Due to the total damage to infrastructure and housing, the city of Mariupol no longer exists.

Now the time is running out, the occupiers have partially broken into the territory of the Azovstal plant, every minute of delay could cost huge losses to all those who found shelter on the territory of the plant.

We call on the United Nations, the UN Secretary-General, and regional leaders around the world to begin an immediate "extraction" procedure of the evacuation of civilians, all wounded, the bodies of the fallen and Ukrainian servicemen from blockaded Mariupol.

With the immediate help of international figures, we still have the opportunity to save people's lives.
We call for decisive action by the international community to:

• provide an urgent ceasefire with guarantees from both sides in Mariupol;

• organize immediate monitoring of compliance with the ceasefire by a third party;

• organize the maritime evacuation of civilians and Ukrainian servicemen to the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government or to the territory of a third intermediary state. Maritime evacuation may be accompanied by a land humanitarian corridor for civilians and the Ukrainian military to territory controlled by the Ukrainian government or to a third intermediary state.
 
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US intelligence believes Putin is preparing for the long fight.

Thinks he can out last Western support for Ukraine. Outlast Hawks in Western capitals to be replaced by Doves.

Doesn't believe any nuclear weapons will be used unless Putin feels Russia existentially threatened. And Russia would signal to when that point is reached.


 
True. But ethnicity is what a person feels they are more than facial features.

The point wasn't about self-identification.

It was about the Aryan looking soldiers marching in Russia's Victory Day parade.

The point was that Caucasian muslims would look right at home in Russia's Victory day parade alongside ethnic Russians. While Buryats and other Asian minorities would look out of place and very different from ethnic Russians.
 
Please ...... .... in my house when I grew up there were people who had war medals from Korea, not just for turning up. They were British medals. There was no euphemism about it being a UN action.
I apologize if insulted any of your relatives, but almost 1.8 million US combatants served in the Korean theater at one time or another. Here are the peak strength numbers:

South Korea 602,902
USA 326,863
UK 14,198

Source:

 
Only if they’re Welsh, Scottish or Irish generally. English tend to state they’re British if asked.

The English are the dominant population on the islands. Brexit was driven by similar forces seen in the US. The dominant population is seeing its traditional power base diminish and get replaced by people who don't look like them. In the case of the UK, it's mostly non-white people moving in from the former colonies. Some English manifest guilt over the empire while others reflect back on the former glories of the British Empire and are more fiercely English than they ever were.

The history podcast I listen to is primarily two British historians and they have guests on. One of the guests was talking about what it is to be British and the English. In 1966 at the World Cup, the England team was cheered on by people waving the Union Jack. The mascot for the games had a Union Jack. But in the 80s the St George's cross started showing up at games and now it's ubiquitous.

It's a phenomenon happening all around the world. Ethnic groups are becoming more partisan to their ethnic group and wanting more autonomy, more local authority. While on the other hand some people are becoming less connected to their root culture and are being more pan-cultural, though they are the minority.

Even though I've always lived in the US, I've never felt any strong tie to the identity of this country (which is an odd animal to begin with compared to the rest of the world). As the internet has given me access to other cultures my Americaness is weaker than ever. I understand wanting to defend your home, whether that be physical dwelling or home territory from an invader, but the otherwise rah rah my "team" doesn't really grok. I regularly watch TV programs from other English speaking countries, probably more than American TV. I realized I had really internalized the slang from other countries when I saw part of a stand up routine by an Australian comedian, thought it was hilarious, and showed it to my partner. I had to explain every joke. She got it when explained, but it wasn't funny by that point.

Americans and Candians also have an odd identity thing. There are a couple of books out there by a historian named Colin Woodard. His first is called American Nations and the others build on it. He discusses that a nation is an ethnic identity and most nation states are also predominantly the home for that ethnic group. So Japan is the political entity for the people who consider themselves Japanese.

The UK has internal divisions, because it comprises multiple nations (ethnicities), but those groups also have their own country within the UK, for the most part. The tensions come in when a lot of immigrants have moved in who are from other nations.

North America is made up of 12 identified nations by Woodard and they have no political entity that contains the entire group. Many US states have more than one nation and every nation is larger than the boundary of any one state. The English speakers in Canada can only identify themselves as "not American" because they all belong to nations that cross the border. When I went to western British Columbia I could tell the culture there was the same at its core as Seattle and Portland, even though the queen was on everything and officially everything reflected back to Ontario. British Columbia was a weird mix of very familiar and different.

A lot of northern Americans look north across their border and see kinship in the Canadians living there, but the Canadians look south and see the politics and culture of the nations not shared with Canada and see aliens. Specifically The Deep South and Appalachia are uniquely American cultures. At this point most of the rest of the cultures in the US would like to eject them too.

I live right on the border between two cultures. West of the Cascade mountains in Oregon and Washington is the Left Coast culture, which is tied to the Bay Area culture. Western British Columbia is the same culture. Then eastern Washington and Oregon are what Woodard calls the Far West culture, but I call it the Interior West culture. The Left Coast culture tends to be progressive believing in creating a utopian future. High tech companies thrive in all the cities of the region.

The Interior West is more traditional and more about the land and extracting resources from it. The TV show Yellowstone is all about that culture.

This town is a push-pull of the two cultures.

Apologize if this has been posted before but this article explains Russia's resource policy:


That is about 2 months old. Kamil Galeev has talked about what really happens in the Russian army. Conscripts are not paid, but contract soldiers are. Conscripts are put under tremendous pressure to enlist (become contract soldiers). The enlisted ranks of the Russian army contains virtually nobody who walked into a recruiting office and volunteered. Almost all their contract soldiers started out as conscripts and for one reason or another enlisted.

The Russian army's only professionals are the officers. Everyone else is there involuntarily.

US intelligence believes Putin is preparing for the long fight.

Thinks he can out last Western support for Ukraine. Outlast Hawks in Western capitals to be replaced by Doves.

Doesn't believe any nuclear weapons will be used unless Putin feels Russia existentially threatened. And Russia would signal to when that point is reached.



Hitler had dreams of repelling the Red Army all the way back to Moscow in 1945. He didn't have the forces to do it and the Russians don't have the forces to fulfill Putin's dreams now. Putin might as well dream of taking New York City. That's about as likely as Russians taking anything west of Kherson.

Their army is a dwindling resource with a coming pull by date.

The point wasn't about self-identification.

It was about the Aryan looking soldiers marching in Russia's Victory Day parade.

The point was that Caucasian muslims would look right at home in Russia's Victory day parade alongside ethnic Russians. While Buryats and other Asian minorities would look out of place and very different from ethnic Russians.

True. The Russians can use them to give the look of good white Russian soldiers.
 
Hitler had dreams of repelling the Red Army all the way back to Moscow in 1945. He didn't have the forces to do it and the Russians don't have the forces to fulfill Putin's dreams now. Putin might as well dream of taking New York City. That's about as likely as Russians taking anything west of Kherson.

Their army is a dwindling resource with a coming pull by date.

The difference is we are not marching into Moscow.

Putin has his lifetime to replenish his Army.

The Russian State has until the Russian State collapses to refurbish an Army.
 
The difference is we are not marching into Moscow.

Putin has his lifetime to replenish his Army.

The Russian State has until the Russian State collapses to refurbish an Army.

With the population shrinking and a shrinking industrial base too, it's going to be difficult. I've read a couple of analysts who have made the point that in a few years an invasion of Ukraine would be impossible because they couldn't raise enough troops to even do a semblance of the job.

The Russian state could collapse in the aftermath of this war.
 
With the population shrinking and a shrinking industrial base too, it's going to be difficult. I've read a couple of analysts who have made the point that in a few years an invasion of Ukraine would be impossible because they couldn't raise enough troops to even do a semblance of the job.

The Russian state could collapse in the aftermath of this war.
The Russian State could collapse. That is a hope not a strategy.

I have been reading about the imminent collapse of the House of Saud on this forum since before I officially joined.

Russia has ~5.5M men in their 20s. About 7.5M men in their 30s.

A determined tyrant that can sell lots of natural resources, not just oil, can keep a war going next door vs a neighbor less than 1/3 its population for a long time.

Or someone inside the FSB can put a bullet in the head of said tyrant. Which could result in a better or worse tyrant.

The chances are greater that a buffoon enters the White House and snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
Please ...... .... in my house when I grew up there were people who had war medals from Korea, not just for turning up. They were British medals. There was no euphemism about it being a UN action.

======

1. My personal expectation is that Ukraine will seek to take back all the occupied territories, including Crimea. Whether they will succeed is another matter.

2. I also expect Ukraine to make further strikes on Russian territory against more military targets - airfields, transport infrasructure, logistics, SAM sites, headquarters. My expectation is that those strikes will always be focussed on those assets that are clearly relevant to ongoing fighting so that they have a valid target selection file in case of post-conflict legal action.

3. If Ukraine is successful in pushing Russia back towards the pre-2014 borders (i.e. the 1991 ones) then I expect Putin (if he is still in charge) will order a symbolic tactical nuclear release, for example targetting Snake Island. The Russians simply won't have anything left in the toolbox in that scenario. Whether he will be obeyed by Russian armed forces is a different matter.
Absolutely a UN effort. Somebody didn't know their history. When the US army collapsed in the face of the initial attack by China it was the forces from the UK that held on and allowed an orderly retreat instead of it going to a rout. Without that it could have been a disaster.