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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Have you ever tried getting a visa for a non UK/EU citizen to visit the EU from UK? It’s just as onerous I can tell you.
I don’t think the UK gov has done itself any favours in it’s handling of the Ukraine refugees. Having said that it’s damned if it does damned if it doesn’t do something (anything). Probably not helped by the situation with illegal immigrants leaving France in rubber dinghies even though the EU policy is once in a safe country etc etc.
I’m guessing you wouldn’t be in favour of the push back policy that was mooted at one point either.
The EU has taken in the better part of 6m refugees from Ukraine. And given them full access to work opportunities and pretty much every right of a EU citizen short of voting.

The contrast with the UK's treatment of Ukraine refugees is obvious.
 
Using Google translate of a Facebook post of Iryna Venediktova, Acting Director of the Ukraine State Bureau of Investigations:

The first Russian military will stand trial for killing a civilian in Sumy region​
The Office of the Prosecutor General brought to court the indictment regarding the commander of the unit v / h 32010 "4 tank kantemiriv division of the Moscow region" Vadim Shysimarin.​
The investigation found that this 21-year-old Russian military on February 28, 2022, killed an unarmed resident of Chupakhivka village of Sumy region, who was driving a bike by the side of the road.​
Before this, the column in which was sergeant šišimarín smashed our zsu. Fleeing, he and 4 other co-workers fired at a private car and seized it. On a stolen car with the same wheels punctured, the zagarbniki drove into the village. On the way, a man was seen coming home and talking on the phone. One of the military ordered the sergeant to kill a civilian so he would not report them to Ukrainian defenders. That one made several pricílʹníh shots through the open window of the car with the Kalashnikov machine in the head of the 62-Year-old victim. The man died on the spot just a few dozens of meters from his house.​
The suspect Šišimarin is currently in custody. Prosecutors and investigators of the SBU have collected enough evidence of his involvement in violation of the laws and customs of war combined with premeditated murder (ch. 2nd century 438 cc of Ukraine. For these actions, he faces 10 to 15 years in prison or life in prison.​
 
Go back 125 years to 1917, ....
Are you speaking to us from the future? Could you PM me June 2022's winning Powerball numbers? Asking for a friend :)

....Russia was losing a war then too. Russia had gone to war with insufficient preparation, just like Italy in 1940, and Russia again this year. In all three cases the armies started off on the wrong foot and never managed to get a stable war machine together.
I think it was the Institute for War lady on CNN the other day who said Putin was talking about WW2 a lot lately. Not just because of Victory Day, but because he wanted to remind people how they lost many battles and millions of soldiers in the first couple years before finally turning things around and winning. Great victories come with great costs, etc.

I expect Ukraine will be back to their 2021 borders within a few months if not sooner.
This guy thinks the opposite. I don't agree with much he says (one million Russian soldiers in Ukraine by yearend??), but unlike the clown "analysts" our ruble megafan used to post, this guy actually thinks instead of just repeating obvious propaganda.

In other news, Russian governors in Tomsk, Kirov, Saratov and Mari El have resigned/been fired and the Ryazan governor will not seek another term in September's election. Apparently this is common during economic downturns -- put the blame on governors instead of the president.
 
Are you speaking to us from the future? Could you PM me June 2022's winning Powerball numbers? Asking for a friend :)


I think it was the Institute for War lady on CNN the other day who said Putin was talking about WW2 a lot lately. Not just because of Victory Day, but because he wanted to remind people how they lost many battles and millions of soldiers in the first couple years before finally turning things around and winning. Great victories come with great costs, etc.
I'd like the next 20 Kentucky derby winners please.

What is it with Russian dictators not learning from the failings of previous Russian dictators? Stalin refused to believe his spys in Berlin that Hitler was going to invade and he did little if anything to prepare his military to face the Germans. Anyone know if Putin is using the NKVD type troops to hang out behind the poorly trained, poorly armed cannon fodder to machine gun anyone that doesn't join the human waves of death?
 
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The EU has taken in the better part of 6m refugees from Ukraine. And given them full access to work opportunities and pretty much every right of a EU citizen short of voting.

The contrast with the UK's treatment of Ukraine refugees is obvious.
The Uk has a population not to far off the French population but with virtually a third of the landmass. Where exactly would you propose we house them, when there’s couple’s living in 3 bedroom council housing stock? We can’t even house our own homeless, shocking yes?
 
Are you speaking to us from the future? Could you PM me June 2022's winning Powerball numbers? Asking for a friend :)

Woops. 😗

I think it was the Institute for War lady on CNN the other day who said Putin was talking about WW2 a lot lately. Not just because of Victory Day, but because he wanted to remind people how they lost many battles and millions of soldiers in the first couple years before finally turning things around and winning. Great victories come with great costs, etc.

It could be. Though it could also be trying to rally the country behind the cause. The UK government invoked the WW II Blitz quite often during the COVID lock downs. It could also be both.

He does need to spin the eventual truth that Russia has lost a lot of soldiers in Ukraine.

This guy thinks the opposite. I don't agree with much he says (one million Russian soldiers in Ukraine by yearend??), but unlike the clown "analysts" our ruble megafan used to post, this guy actually thinks instead of just repeating obvious propaganda.

In other news, Russian governors in Tomsk, Kirov, Saratov and Mari El have resigned/been fired and the Ryazan governor will not seek another term in September's election. Apparently this is common during economic downturns -- put the blame on governors instead of the president.

I can't find the video anymore, but here is a Reddit thread about it

This is how the Russians outfitted at least one new unit. At least one of these people is clearly an old man.

The Russians would have to declare war on Ukraine to be able to draft any more people than they are now in their annual spring and fall drafts. Putin is careful to follow the law here because he doesn't want draft riots. The draft is very unpopular and increasing it could trigger revolt.

To increase the size of the army it requires new training facilities, people to train the new conscripts, uniforms and boots for the new conscripts, and weapons for them to both train with as well as fight with. Russia has none of these and would have to make them. They would have to vastly expand factory production in their facilities that make them now, or build new facilities. All of this when the national economy is shrinking 20% this year and the most competent people in the workforce has left the country.

Their tank production has halted, so has their truck production. They are critically short of operational vehicles of all types right now. To get vehicle production going again they need engineers to redesign the vehicles to get around the parts shortages that have shut down production. But most of those engineers emigrated. Their school system has gotten so bad that they are not training the technical people at the same rate they did 20 years ago.

They have a lot of vehicles that are technically in reserve, but they did nothing to preserve the vehicles. The lighter vehicles have rusted away and the tanks are mostly unusable too

Their reserve vehicles are more like a hoarder's stash than an actual reserve.

By contrast the US has an entire command to maintain reserve equipment as well as dispose of obsolete equipment
Sierra Army Depot (SIAD) | Defense Media Network

Anything preserved by the US military can be reactivated in a few weeks for simpler equipment to a year for more complex things like ships.

6 months is about the right time frame, if you have the resources to expand the military as well as the manpower to do it. Russia has none of those things. I noted there were a lot of rumors the Russians were going to declare was May 9 and there were some rumblings within the Kremlin that might happen. But then just before the May 9 celebration Russian talking heads were talking about how declaring war and full mobilization was not going to happen.

I think somebody finally got to Putin and convinced him the Russian economy is not capable of full mobilization in anything short of a 10 year time frame. Trent Telenko has talked about the intelligence people in the US who are still convinced Russia is a potent threat because they are starting with the wrong assumptions. They assume Russia does many things the same way the US does, especially mundane things like logistics. Those who actually understand logistics can tell Russia's approach to logistics is radically different from the US.

In the US reserve equipment means the equipment was lovingly preserved with sensitive components packed in something to protect them from the elements and the thing has been stored in a secure facility with honest people guarding everything. Bringing something back into service means a bit of maintenance and unpack the sensitive parts from their cocoons and you're ready to go. On top of that everything is documented completely.

Russia's approach to reserve equipment is treated the opposite in almost every way.

And that's just one area.

I'd like the next 20 Kentucky derby winners please.

What is it with Russian dictators not learning from the failings of previous Russian dictators? Stalin refused to believe his spys in Berlin that Hitler was going to invade and he did little if anything to prepare his military to face the Germans. Anyone know if Putin is using the NKVD type troops to hang out behind the poorly trained, poorly armed cannon fodder to machine gun anyone that doesn't join the human waves of death?

That's the role of the Chechen TikTok troops. When they aren't shooting TikTok videos doing brave combat with abandoned buildings, they are shooting deserters.

The Uk has a population not to far off the French population but with virtually a third of the landmass. Where exactly would you propose we house them, when there’s couple’s living in 3 bedroom council housing stock? We can’t even house our own homeless, shocking yes?

Housing homeless is usually more of a political decision than a space consideration. The US has more unoccupied space than the UK, but also has a bad homeless problem in a lot of cities.

The US is taking in very few Ukrainian refugees too, but few Ukrainians want to go that far from Ukraine. Almost all the Ukrainian refugees coming to the US already have family here. Most of the refugees want to go home after the war and a lot of them from around Kyiv already have returned.
 
Woops. 😗



It could be. Though it could also be trying to rally the country behind the cause. The UK government invoked the WW II Blitz quite often during the COVID lock downs. It could also be both.

He does need to spin the eventual truth that Russia has lost a lot of soldiers in Ukraine.



I can't find the video anymore, but here is a Reddit thread about it

This is how the Russians outfitted at least one new unit. At least one of these people is clearly an old man.

The Russians would have to declare war on Ukraine to be able to draft any more people than they are now in their annual spring and fall drafts. Putin is careful to follow the law here because he doesn't want draft riots. The draft is very unpopular and increasing it could trigger revolt.

To increase the size of the army it requires new training facilities, people to train the new conscripts, uniforms and boots for the new conscripts, and weapons for them to both train with as well as fight with. Russia has none of these and would have to make them. They would have to vastly expand factory production in their facilities that make them now, or build new facilities. All of this when the national economy is shrinking 20% this year and the most competent people in the workforce has left the country.

Their tank production has halted, so has their truck production. They are critically short of operational vehicles of all types right now. To get vehicle production going again they need engineers to redesign the vehicles to get around the parts shortages that have shut down production. But most of those engineers emigrated. Their school system has gotten so bad that they are not training the technical people at the same rate they did 20 years ago.

They have a lot of vehicles that are technically in reserve, but they did nothing to preserve the vehicles. The lighter vehicles have rusted away and the tanks are mostly unusable too

Their reserve vehicles are more like a hoarder's stash than an actual reserve.

By contrast the US has an entire command to maintain reserve equipment as well as dispose of obsolete equipment
Sierra Army Depot (SIAD) | Defense Media Network

Anything preserved by the US military can be reactivated in a few weeks for simpler equipment to a year for more complex things like ships.

6 months is about the right time frame, if you have the resources to expand the military as well as the manpower to do it. Russia has none of those things. I noted there were a lot of rumors the Russians were going to declare was May 9 and there were some rumblings within the Kremlin that might happen. But then just before the May 9 celebration Russian talking heads were talking about how declaring war and full mobilization was not going to happen.

I think somebody finally got to Putin and convinced him the Russian economy is not capable of full mobilization in anything short of a 10 year time frame. Trent Telenko has talked about the intelligence people in the US who are still convinced Russia is a potent threat because they are starting with the wrong assumptions. They assume Russia does many things the same way the US does, especially mundane things like logistics. Those who actually understand logistics can tell Russia's approach to logistics is radically different from the US.

In the US reserve equipment means the equipment was lovingly preserved with sensitive components packed in something to protect them from the elements and the thing has been stored in a secure facility with honest people guarding everything. Bringing something back into service means a bit of maintenance and unpack the sensitive parts from their cocoons and you're ready to go. On top of that everything is documented completely.

Russia's approach to reserve equipment is treated the opposite in almost every way.

And that's just one area.



That's the role of the Chechen TikTok troops. When they aren't shooting TikTok videos doing brave combat with abandoned buildings, they are shooting deserters.



Housing homeless is usually more of a political decision than a space consideration. The US has more unoccupied space than the UK, but also has a bad homeless problem in a lot of cities.

The US is taking in very few Ukrainian refugees too, but few Ukrainians want to go that far from Ukraine. Almost all the Ukrainian refugees coming to the US already have family here. Most of the refugees want to go home after the war and a lot of them from around Kyiv already have returned.

Russia will be a potent threat so long as they have a massive nuclear arsenal. Taking that threat seriously while at the same time not being handicapped with fear is a delicate balance.
 
Pretty sure I can get 6,000 RUB from vacation leftovers. Care to swap for $90? If so, I can find even more toilet paper from others that may have visited Russia in the last decade.

The only way that exchange exists is TOWARDS RUB. Not the other way around. Russian Central Bank only SELLS RUB(bish). They have plenty of trash, they aint interested in buying more.
it is a troll bot ..don't reply
 
Russia will be a potent threat so long as they have a massive nuclear arsenal. Taking that threat seriously while at the same time not being handicapped with fear is a delicate balance.

Russia describes its entire military doctrine as defensive military doctrine. With regard to nuclear weapons specifically, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons:

  • in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also
  • in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.[31]
The new military doctrine of 2014 does not depart from this stance.[32] The 2020 Presidential Executive Order on Nuclear Deterrence in Article 4 uses the wording: "deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies. In the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies."[33] This has been interpreted as describing non-nuclear scenarios where Russia might use nuclear weapons to achieve its military goals.[34]

So basically, if NATO doesn't actually invade Russia, by their own statements, they will not use nuclear weapons. This is in line with the doctrines promulgated by virtually every other state that possess nuclear weapons, including the United States.

As recently as March, all 5 official nuclear weapons states affirmed that they will only use nuclear weapons for defensive purposes, including Russia. This was only shortly before the invasion of Ukraine began but for some reason the media of every nation somehow immediately forgot about it.


If we do not attack Russia, invade Russia, or nuke Russia, then by their own military doctrine Russians will not be using nuclear weapons during the Ukraine conflict. Which is why NATO has been taking such great pains to avoid anyone from NATO firing a single shot at a Russian while providing arms and logistical support to Ukraine.
 
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So basically, if NATO doesn't actually invade Russia, by their own statements, they will not use nuclear weapons. This is in line with the doctrines promulgated by virtually every other state that possess nuclear weapons, including the United States.

As recently as March, all 5 official nuclear weapons states affirmed that they will only use nuclear weapons for defensive purposes, including Russia. This was only shortly before the invasion of Ukraine began but for some reason the media of every nation somehow immediately forgot about it.


If we do not attack Russia, invade Russia, or nuke Russia, then by their own military doctrine Russians will not be using nuclear weapons during the Ukraine conflict. Which is why NATO has been taking such great pains to avoid anyone from NATO firing a single shot at a Russian while providing arms and logistical support to Ukraine.

A good case can be made that this war won't turn nuclear, but there is no absolute assurance. And nukes are the kind of thing where you want to be 100% sure.
 



So basically, if NATO doesn't actually invade Russia, by their own statements, they will not use nuclear weapons. This is in line with the doctrines promulgated by virtually every other state that possess nuclear weapons, including the United States.

As recently as March, all 5 official nuclear weapons states affirmed that they will only use nuclear weapons for defensive purposes, including Russia. This was only shortly before the invasion of Ukraine began but for some reason the media of every nation somehow immediately forgot about it.


If we do not attack Russia, invade Russia, or nuke Russia, then by their own military doctrine Russians will not be using nuclear weapons during the Ukraine conflict. Which is why NATO has been taking such great pains to avoid anyone from NATO firing a single shot at a Russian while providing arms and logistical support to Ukraine.

Except that as the de facto tsar of Russia, Putin makes the determination of what constitutes an existential threat to the Russian state. He also has the authority to change Russia's nuclear doctrine at will. In Soviet Russia the doctrine was no first use. Today's doctrine opens the door to a preemptive strike.
 
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Except that as the de facto tsar of Russia, Putin makes the determination of what constitutes an existential threat to the Russian state. He also has the authority to change Russia's nuclear doctrine at will. In Soviet Russia the doctrine was no first use. Today's doctrine opens the door to a preemptive strike.
And the problem is also that Russia unilaterally incorporates bits of other people's territory inside its borders. Next up is to declare Kherson is in Russia. So retaking Donbass, Kherson, Crimea becomes an attack on Russia and that in turn becomes (the false) rationale for nuclear use.

(There's plenty of housing in the UK. In mu County alone there are swathes of second homes lying empty except when rich Londons come down for a weekend. Places like Poundbury etc that are deliberately built for just that, irrespective of what the spirit and marketing would like you to believe).
 
There's plenty of housing in the UK. In mu County alone there are swathes of second homes lying empty except when rich Londons come down for a weekend. Places like Poundbury etc that are deliberately built for just that, irrespective of what the spirit and marketing would like you to believe).
So you expect the government to steal peoples houses / property, because it’s a second home. Yup I can see that going down well even Corbyn wouldn’t have tried that & he was all for the return to the 1070’s.

They could make a start here though I suppose
1652333878499.jpeg

The civil service aren’t using it atm anyway

Or here
1652334283348.jpeg

Or here as they’re bloody useless
 
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