-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Quite possibly so.
I have an extended family member who works in US aerospace, has done lots of work/dealings related to our NATO partnership with Turkey over the years. Said person has noted endless frustration by Turkey's Machiavellian dealings with their primary interest being acquisition of leading technologies while lacking many NATO and EU principles/collective interests, contributing to Turkey being one of the weakest links among NATO members.
Propaganda? Or real?
Russian Coup Against Putin Already Under Way, Ukraine General Says
Russian Coup Against Putin Already Under Way, Ukraine General Says
A top Ukrainian military official has said that a coup to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin is underway and cannot be stopped.
Major General Kyrylo Budanov told British broadcaster Sky News that if Russia lost the war in Ukraine, Putin would be removed and his country would collapse.
"It will eventually lead to the change of leadership of the Russian Federation," Budanov told the outlet, "this process has already been launched."
News surfacing that Russians are retreating around Kharkiv
www.forbes.com
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Broken Russia’s Siege Of Kharkiv
Now Russia is on the defensive.
www.forbes.com
Institute for War analysis is very good, updated daily.
Finally appears that some people in Russia are beginning to realize that the military has been completely ineffective and that maybe they've been lied to a bit. Maybe.
Finally appears that some people in Russia are beginning to realize that the military has been completely ineffective and that maybe they've been lied to a bit. Maybe.
WindOfChange has talked about how there are whispers within the Kremlin about Putin needing to go
Igor Sushko - #FSBletters from the Wind of Change inside the FSB (KGB) - Racing & Beyond
The article is a bit misleading that on the one hand it says a coup is underway, but then also says that a coup is contingent on Russia losing in Ukraine. Russia is losing the war, but they haven't lost it yet. Their army is still in the field, but not doing well.
I do think Putin's future as president of Russia is on the line. On the other hand nature may take care of him for the world. There have been many health questions about Putin lately. The latest is supposedly from an unnamed oligarch who says he has "blood cancer". That's been in the last couple of days. My partner sees signs of a brain tumor.
Putin seems obsessed suddenly with his legacy and putting the Russian empire back together. He was also unusually paranoid about getting COVID. These are possible signs of someone who has been fighting cancer for a while and it's spread in the last year. Russia has never committed such a large part of their army to a conflict since the fall of the USSR, and the only times they committed such a large part of the army to anything were the world wars.
This is very out of pattern for Russia which has been content to take small bites here and there under Putin.
Russia had the world bamboozled into thinking they really were the world's #2 army by flashing their shiny toys around, but never really getting into any kind of conflict they couldn't win easily because the enemy was vastly inferior.
They screwed up on many levels. They vastly under estimated Ukraine's ability to fight and how much it had improved, but they also exposed to the world just how bad their military really is. They have managed to get their way on the world stage through bullying and buying off politicians.
Now they are the bully who got their clock cleaned by a smaller kid and when they try to continue to bully nobody is intimidated anymore. Their army was bad on Feb 23 and now it's falling apart. They couldn't pull off an invasion of Estonia right now, even if NATO wasn't going to jump in with both feet 5 seconds later. They are only keeping their army in the field now by stripping munitions and probably equipment from the units that aren't in the fight. They may have ~50 BTGs scattered across Russia right now, a fleet in the Baltic, and one in the Pacific, but probably none of them have any ammunition.
They are also losing a lot of the politicians whose favor they cultivated through decades of hard work trying sell themselves as "not that bad", at least among some political groups. Their past ardent supporters in foreign governments are now distancing themselves.
They were also the masters of covert propaganda. They abused the heck out of social media to craft public opinion in many democracies and among those who they couldn't sell they sowed division exploiting existing fault lines in societies. Now that's getting wobbly. A lot of those influence operations were contracted out to troll farms in other countries using their oil money. But now money is tight and I suspect the troll farms are not as active as they once were.
If they were paying these guys to troll, I would expect there to be more pro-Russian sentiment outside of Russia. The Russians have completely lost the messaging war to Ukraine. The memes they pumped into western politics are still there, but I don't think they are getting reinforced like they used to.
It's hard to tell because there are other factors too. The conservatives lost big in the local elections in the UK last week, but that was on the heels of party-gate and massive incompetence throughout Boris Johnson's government.
Macron won the presidential election against LaPen. It was a closer than last time, but Macron has not been very popular either.
The US midterms are coming up this November. Under normal conditions the Republicans would have an advantage (the first midterm of a presidency almost always goes against the party that holds the White House), but I've read many people who believe this is a wild card election. There are many, many things that could throw the elections anything from close one way to the other to a landslide. And whether Putin's ability to manipulate social media is still working is a minor factor compared to all the others at this point.
Institute for War analysis is very good, updated daily.
Finally appears that some people in Russia are beginning to realize that the military has been completely ineffective and that maybe they've been lied to a bit. Maybe.
Combat engineers and engineering vehicles are always a rare commodity in any army. Russia probably has a worse engineering personnel shortage than most professional armies because of the poor overall quality of their troops. A river assault is probably the second most difficult operation in warfare after an opposed amphibious invasion.
A river assault would have to be approved at the highest levels, at least on a theater command level and the engineering resources allocated. Also the most experienced and competent units are going to be chosen to lead the assault. This would have been the opening salvo of a blitzkrieg breakout to encircle a large Ukrainian force.
Reports are that the assault was destroyed with one Ukrainian brigade and possibly portions of a second one. That's not only a fairly small force to do so much damage, but it probably left a devastating hole in the Russian's ability to carry out this offensive. They lost some critical equipment to get across the river.
It's a good thing the Russian people are beginning to realize how badly Russia is doing. That will help contribute to the ongoing destabilization of the country.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Well Finland is making it official. Sweden likely not far behind. I still say this is a great time to get Putin to the table before they actually join. Perhaps it's too late and this all just needs to run its course
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/O476USW5CVLLDMBPGTLRSNWLUQ.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Finnish president confirms country will apply to join NATO
Finland's President Sauli Niinisto confirmed on Sunday that his country would apply for membership of the NATO military alliance, in a historic policy shift prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
www.reuters.com
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What evidence have you seen that Putin wants to be at the table?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Might not be obvious on a small screen but they are all there. I'm watching on my flat screen TV.
I find it incredibly sad that you feel it is acceptable to negotiate away another's safety and freedom.Well Finland is making it official. Sweden likely not far behind. I still say this is a great time to get Putin to the table before they actually join. Perhaps it's too late and this all just needs to run its course
Finnish president confirms country will apply to join NATO
Finland's President Sauli Niinisto confirmed on Sunday that his country would apply for membership of the NATO military alliance, in a historic policy shift prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Of course it has run it's course. It's a course that has been running it's current little jig since 1990. In a larger sense from 1917. Of course Finland is joining NATO, Sweden too.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Sorry to trample your delicate sensibilities!
This is all theater, is it not? 3 months ago Finland was perfectly safe and sound. Now that the Russian army has been utterly decimated by the Ukrainian defenses.....there's a huge concern?
We're negotiating the end of fossil fuels here. And with it sending the Russian Federation the way of the coal industry. In a few short years all of Scandinavia will never again have anything to fear from Russia.
Let's maintain our perspective and move forward expeditiously.
It might seem like theater from the comfort of your living room in the US. It's very real to the Ukranians and their European neighbors. Let's hope that the rumors of Putin's failing health are on the mark.
Not sure I understand if you are suggesting that Finland wants to join NATO now primarily because Russia looks weaker?
If I remember the polling correctly, the Finns attitude towards joining NATO changed drastically within the first days of the war. Although today it appears obvious that Russia is more of a paper bear, in the first days, that was not so clear.
This looks like a fun way to kill Russian tanks.
defence--blog-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Ukrainian buggies use Corsar missiles to kill Russian tanks – Defence Blog
defence--blog-com.cdn.ampproject.org
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm saying it's more about the political chess game than Finland actually requiring the formal protection of NATO. Aligning as many entities against Russia and applying maximum political pressure.
Wonderful tactics IMO. Obviously the best route is to increase Rissian incentive to have Putin removed or force him to fold.
I'm surprised the oligarchs haven't killed him yet. Putin did an amazing job of neutering nearly everyone around him.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
From speculation about PD because Putin gripped a table, to disseminated cancer because Putin is Covid averse, your medical speculation is I think most generously described as baseless. Please stick with those areas where you have a somewhat firmer grasp.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
There's a base, Putin is not a well dictator. As to the particular set of ailments, it's unclear but could be a variety of things. From my own experiences, looks like cancer.
To a degree this is moot. Any sign of weakness will encourage the local sharks. The more weakness, the more active they will be. Putin's instability is a concern. But what can anyone do with a dying, irrational tyrant who has no-one he can trust to tell him the truth amid a corrupt, thieving, lying mafia-tyranny and who's sidelined or murdered opposition and possible successors.
Nuclear-armed mafia is a bad idea. We just have to see this one out. Sooner Ukraine wins, the better.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
I don't know how much truth is in the claim:-
www.theguardian.com
Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
Ministry of Defence says Putin’s campaign in the east has lost momentum and has failed to make big gains in past month
www.theguardian.com
Finland is covered in bomb shelters, every village...every town has one. When I was placed there I had to know where mine was, I knew the border, how far we could go before it was potentially lethal. Every mans serves in the army...everyone. They have never been "safe" . You are "safe" because there is an ocean and a few nuclear weapons. Even then Putin has done tremendous harm to our civil society in the last 2 decades. Good article somewhere today on the bomb shelters in Finland, real shelters, many will withstand the shock of nuke.
If you haven't served there, or been there or, OBVIOUSLY, know F ALL about it maybe stop saying anything about it?
