@wdolson I would caution about making any statement about oil demand and supply. Experts ability to predict price, supply and demand has been horrible. It's why traders can make fortunes. Right now there is enough oil. SA and UAE don't want to pump it. Just one little unexpected bit of supply could tip the market into a crash...say if Iran is given a green light to pump. Prior to Russias invasion and the pandemic Exxon and Chevron were on a tour trying to convince investors to fund their exploration projects. Exxon in particular is basically shutting itself. Neither were at all healthy and that's why investors have been so difficult to find. Once the tipping point becomes EU and USA aggregate oil demand falling year on year than the oil industry is going to have to change dramatically.
We'll see China become much more invested in the Middle East. SA in particular might tilt over to China as a backer. If it does so it will have to pick a side, Sunni vs Shia. Will be interesting...will be interesting.
Because of the war Biden has asked all the American producers, a fair bit shut in because of low prices before the war, to go to max production. It will take a while to get all the oil flowing again, but there will be a flood of American oil soon.
I don't see Saudi Arabia getting too chummy with China. They are savvy enough to know China's Belt and Road is not good for their partners and SA doesn't need any financial help. Additionally the SA military is completely adapted to using US equipment.
I don't think SA is pumping more oil right now because they can't physically do it. Over the last 10 years I've heard from people I know in the oil business that anyone in the business who knows the signs could see SA production was falling and they were doing secondary recovery on the quiet. They are keeping it quiet because their standing in the world is dependent on the world seeing them as one of the top producers.
When they can't cover their decline any longer, there will be a big shift in the oil market.
Oil has also been a politically manipulated commodity since the 80s. The US formed an alliance with SA, UAE, and Kuwait to turn the spigots on and off depending on which geo-political player the US wanted to punish at the time. If the USSR/Russia was the target, prices were low, and if China was the target prices were high. The pandemic broke the levers though and it has been free floating the last two years.
The last time the trigger flipped was 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas. Nobody could figure out why oil prices were remaining high before then with so much American oil coming onto the market. The price of oil crashed a few weeks after Russia's move as SA, UAE, and Kuwait suddenly decided to flood the market with oil.
Trump's manipulation of SA during his presidency may have done some damage too, though I'm not sure.
Held out much longer than most expected at Azovstal:
Ukraine’s military command declared an end to the "combat mission" at the Azovstal steel complex, where Ukrainian defenders had held out for weeks under Russian assault. The announcement carried a tone of finality, refering to the fighters as "heroes of our time" who would be "forever in history."
The announcement said that 53 seriously wounded servicemen were being taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk, in the Russian-controlled part of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, and that 211 other fighters had been taken to Olenivka, in Donetsk, to be returned to Ukrainian territory through an exchange.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/16/world/russia-ukraine-war-news
Azozstal was the modern Corrigidor. It was never going to hold out long enough for the Ukrainians to retake Mariupol. The defenders held out a lot longer than I thought they would.
More parallels to Hitler.
President helping determine movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning
www.theguardian.com
Hitler wore military uniforms fairly often, but I don't think he ever gave himself military rank. It's also weird he made himself a brigadier general. Technically he is outranked by the top military commanders in the Russian Army. Most dictators who give themselves military rank make themselves high grand poo bah of the military or some other made up title.
