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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Are all US made air defense systems on the table for shipment to Ukraine? Seems we're trying to stay on the less aggressive side of sending "defensive weapons" primarily.
It would be nice if Ukraine were receiving the very best in ground based air defense.
It would be nice if Ukraine were receiving the very best in ground based air defense.
The Black Sea fleet was never very large. The largest warships they have now are 5 frigates. The Ukrainians have a home made anti-ship missile that sank the Moskva and the British have given the Ukrainians some air to surface anti shipping missiles that they adapted to be mounted on a truck. I believe the US missiles are longer range than the other two though.
I have read that some NATO countries are talking about escorting Ukrainian grain ships in and out of the Black Sea, though that would require Turkey's cooperation.
The Russians talk up a big game, but their advances in the Donbas have been very small and at high cost. A sign of an army that is quickly running out of offensive capability. One thing I was reading is the Russians make a big announcement they "captured" a village when in reality they just got to its outskirts and if they do take it, the Ukrainians make them pay for every inch of it over many days.
The Russian way of war for the last 500 years has been to keep throwing bodies at an enemy, there are always more to throw into the fight. But they now have a manpower shortage and they haven't adjusted to that. This high casualty style of warfare is bleeding the army dry.
The ammunition for the M777 also has something none of the Russian ammo has. About 20 years ago most of the developed world started adopting smart shells for their gun artillery. There are various different types of shells, but the most basic have an altitude setting. They can be set to explode x feet off the ground. To troops in trenches and foxholes, it's like blasting them with large shot guns from above. The Russians never adopted these kinds of rounds because they didn't have the electronics industry to make the fuzes.
The Mariupol forces are spent. When any unit has been in combat that long, they can't just be pulled out and inserted somewhere else. Even if the Russians don't care one whit about the troops, they lost a lot of equipment and what's left is probably held together with chewing gum at this point. Combat is very hard on machines.
The Patriot is a complex system with a long learning curve. I wonder if they will be operated by contractors from the west?
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Actually the game changer with the M777 (just like the Paladin) is the digital fire control and support for GPS guided munitions.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
This allows them to hit targets with much more precision (50m CEP with PDK or 6m with Excalibur vs 267m with conventional 155mm shells) and allows them to hit the target with the first shot. Without this tech, artillery can only hit a general area (267m is still a pretty big circle, even assuming a 50m blast radius), not specific targets.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
At the moment Russia has dominance of the Black Sea over Ukraine. Just as in the air war there are grades of control semantics in the military/naval science literature, and one can argue as to whether Russia has sea control or sea denial (etc). At present it seems Russia has posession of Snake Island and has been able to maintain air defences on it, resupply it, and use it as an western anchor point in the screen that they have running eastwards to Crimea using the frigates. That gives the Russians control of the surface, and a set of (albeit limited) air defence assets behind/under which the Russian amphib & logistics shipping & minor vessels can do their stuff. In short this is a Russian blockade of the southern arc, and the Russians have just about been able to maintain it despite the loss of Moskva.
The loss of Moskva has prevented Russian assets from moving up threat, closer to the coast, but pulled back to the blockade line Snake-Crimea they are still able to fulfill most of their missions - namely blockade, denial, loiter/poise/threaten, and strike (via missiles) - if not the final one of invade/land.
The Kilo class submarines are a different problem set - they do not give the Russians any real utility in peacetime (or ceasefire), but do have utility in wartime.
It is quite possible that Russia will seek to offer a cerasefire on the existing lines of control (LOC) in the coming weeks. If Russia were to retain possession of Snake Island then the encirclement of Ukraine at sea would be complete. It is therefore very important that Ukraine further attrite the Russian assets and ideally eject the Russians from Snake Island. To do that would require sinking a couple more Russian major naval assets (i.e. of the frigates) as they are the protective shield for the other Russian assets. Even if Ukraine can manage that, then the next step of putting Ukraine personnel onto Snake Island is quite a further step of difficulty.
The naval war is just as important as the land and air wars in this conflict.
A NATO/EU effort to break the blockade (e.g. by escort/convoy) would need to use the Romanian and Bulgarian assets in the Black Sea if Turkey does not co-operate. Personally I do not think Turkey will cooperate until one day before Ukraine declares victory (much like Argentina in WW2). Given the air assets it would be possible to do this, but not a slam dunk (those Kilos are problematic, as is the Russian control of Snake Island). The Romainian navy is more relevant than the Bulgarian one (the former has had a lot of UK support in the last few decades, whilst the latter has been primarily partnered by the Germans) and I think a convoy/escort system to try and break the Russian blockade would be just-about doable (as in the Gulf tanker wars etc) but it runs much the same risks as NATO/EU involvement in a no-fly zone. Indeed a blockade-breaking operation would need some sort of no-fly umbrella to be viable.
Snake Island is a very strategic bit of real estate.
The loss of Moskva has prevented Russian assets from moving up threat, closer to the coast, but pulled back to the blockade line Snake-Crimea they are still able to fulfill most of their missions - namely blockade, denial, loiter/poise/threaten, and strike (via missiles) - if not the final one of invade/land.
The Kilo class submarines are a different problem set - they do not give the Russians any real utility in peacetime (or ceasefire), but do have utility in wartime.
It is quite possible that Russia will seek to offer a cerasefire on the existing lines of control (LOC) in the coming weeks. If Russia were to retain possession of Snake Island then the encirclement of Ukraine at sea would be complete. It is therefore very important that Ukraine further attrite the Russian assets and ideally eject the Russians from Snake Island. To do that would require sinking a couple more Russian major naval assets (i.e. of the frigates) as they are the protective shield for the other Russian assets. Even if Ukraine can manage that, then the next step of putting Ukraine personnel onto Snake Island is quite a further step of difficulty.
The naval war is just as important as the land and air wars in this conflict.
A NATO/EU effort to break the blockade (e.g. by escort/convoy) would need to use the Romanian and Bulgarian assets in the Black Sea if Turkey does not co-operate. Personally I do not think Turkey will cooperate until one day before Ukraine declares victory (much like Argentina in WW2). Given the air assets it would be possible to do this, but not a slam dunk (those Kilos are problematic, as is the Russian control of Snake Island). The Romainian navy is more relevant than the Bulgarian one (the former has had a lot of UK support in the last few decades, whilst the latter has been primarily partnered by the Germans) and I think a convoy/escort system to try and break the Russian blockade would be just-about doable (as in the Gulf tanker wars etc) but it runs much the same risks as NATO/EU involvement in a no-fly zone. Indeed a blockade-breaking operation would need some sort of no-fly umbrella to be viable.
Snake Island is a very strategic bit of real estate.
I can't find it now but someone like Trent Telenko pointed out that the images of the M777s in Ukraine show the GPS units missing. He speculated it was because those GPS units are highly integrated into the US command and control network and they wouldn't be useful to the Ukrainians who have a different network.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Finland now off gas
www.theguardian.com
Sanctions are being noticed
www.theguardian.com
Russia halts gas supplies to Finland as payments row with the west escalates
Russia cut off gas to Bulgaria and Poland last month amid an energy payments dispute sparked by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
www.theguardian.com
Sanctions are being noticed
Cosmopolitan no more: Russians feel sting of cultural and economic rift
Magazines, production lines and consumer choices suffer as isolation from the west bites
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Useful article on Transnistria
www.theguardian.com
‘I don’t feel safe here’: Transnistria fears could spark Moldova exodus
Explosions in separatist-controlled region have heightened worries that country could be drawn into the Ukraine war
www.theguardian.com
Finland now off gas
Russia halts gas supplies to Finland as payments row with the west escalates
Russia cut off gas to Bulgaria and Poland last month amid an energy payments dispute sparked by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
Sanctions are being noticed
Cosmopolitan no more: Russians feel sting of cultural and economic rift
Magazines, production lines and consumer choices suffer as isolation from the west bites
Kamil Galeev had an article Friday about the popularity of the war wit different economic groups and how badly the people in the outer provinces are struggling. The payday loan biz is big in the working class towns in the Urals where interest rates can range as high as 1% a day. People commuting suicide at work so their families can collect death benefits and pay off their debts is so common there are slang terms for it in Russian.
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
The war is very unpopular among the poorest in Russia, who are also most likely to get drafted. A lot of the sabotage that has been going on has been in the poorest parts of Russia.
Useful article on Transnistria
‘I don’t feel safe here’: Transnistria fears could spark Moldova exodus
Explosions in separatist-controlled region have heightened worries that country could be drawn into the Ukraine war
I think it was WindOfChange who said that the loony optimists in the Kremlin thought that getting the troops stationed in Transnistra would tip the balance for the war. There are about 1500 troops, most of them administrative. There were also wild hare ideas about staging an uprising in Transnistra with false flag attacks, then fly in troops on a number of "humanitarian" flights from Russia.
On paper there are large warehouses in Transnistra full of caches of weapons that were stashed there before the war. According to WindOfChange the whole thing was a scam to steal from the defense budget and the warehouses are empty. The plan among the conspirators was to use the false flag attacks to burn down the warehouses to cover their crimes.
How is it that we have moved into an era where real events sound like the plots from the scripts of crazy comedy movies that were rejected for being too out there?
Tiger
Active Member
Can someone explain what's happening here?
What is a Battalion in this context? What is a Regiment in this context? Are these paramilitary? Are these legal?
What is a Battalion in this context? What is a Regiment in this context? Are these paramilitary? Are these legal?
Russian military consists of Battalion Tactical Groups, one of which has around 500-700 soldiers (I think) and all sorts of units.
4-5 BTGs form a regiment.
But all these definitions are rather vague.. and I really don't know how Belarus forces are composed.
petit_bateau
Active Member
A regiment is larger than a battalion. A regiment can consist of a few battalions.
(Theae things are very variable, army groupings grow and shrink all the time to preserve cap badges until the next war.)
Whoever wins in Ukraine will probably also determine the outcome for Belorussia (and other places like Moldova, perhaps Georgia ).
The citizens of Beliorusua know that and enough of them have chosen to fight in Ukraine that it is politically material, perhaps also militarily.
Is that sufficient explanation? Sorry poor connection here.
(Theae things are very variable, army groupings grow and shrink all the time to preserve cap badges until the next war.)
Whoever wins in Ukraine will probably also determine the outcome for Belorussia (and other places like Moldova, perhaps Georgia ).
The citizens of Beliorusua know that and enough of them have chosen to fight in Ukraine that it is politically material, perhaps also militarily.
Is that sufficient explanation? Sorry poor connection here.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I know the Israeli army organization, I presume a reflection of the british:
It is 3^x.
3 people are a link
3 links to a platoon
3 platoons to a company
3 companies to a brigade
3 brigades to a battalion
3 battalions to a regiment
I hope I have the translations correct, but just in case here are the correct labels in hebrew
חוליה
כיתה
מחלקה
פלוגה
גדוד
חטיבה
אוגדה
And a bit of humor. Israelis love to throw jabs at pretense. At a minimum, a person is a sub-commander of a reduced link.The translation does not do justice to the quip.
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Odd hiccup with the quoting there. Don't know what happened. The Ukrainians have been taking foreign volunteers from the beginning. They had enough Belorussians to make up a battalion early in the war, but they now have enough to make up a larger unit. In other words the anti-Russian sentiments in Belarus are causing more Belorussians to cross the border and volunteer.
A lot of armies have triangle formations like this though it can be 2X or 4X at times.
The US and many armies uses the term squad instead of link. A squad is usually about 10 people. Though US squads are usually a bit larger. I believe Russian squads are usually about 8. As units get combined there are other things get attached, so a larger unit isn't just equal to 2, 3, or 4x the smaller unit. At the platoon level there is a small HQ unit, and a larger HQ at the company level. Larger units will also have anti aircraft and artillery attachments.
Terminator857
Active Member
Wikiwand - Platoon
A platoon is a military unit typically composed of two to four squads, sections, or patrols. Platoon organization varies depending on the country and the branch, but a platoon can be composed of 20–50 troops, although specific platoons may range from 10 to 100 people. A platoon is typically the...
www.wikiwand.com
Tiger
Active Member
Thanks, makes sense. So, in essence, Ukraine is like the Troyan horse of russia. All people willing to fight against russian leadership can now join to defend Ukraine, even Russians are welcome:
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
For reference, here is the current US Army unit organizational structure and hierarchy.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) uses platoons (Hebrew: "mahlakot", literally "divisions") as the basic unit composing the company and usually consists of 30 to 65 soldiers (or 3–4 tanks in the Armored Corps).Wikiwand - Platoon
A platoon is a military unit typically composed of two to four squads, sections, or patrols. Platoon organization varies depending on the country and the branch, but a platoon can be composed of 20–50 troops, although specific platoons may range from 10 to 100 people. A platoon is typically the...
An infantry mahlaka in the IDF is ideally 27 soldiers, 3 NCOs and and a 2nd Lieutenant.
I speak from experience. I am, however, much less sure about the English translations.
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Hmm.. No statement at APEC after walkout of delegates on Russia presentation..
And.. Russia wants imports (food products, rice, fruits, automobiles, auto parts, info tech) and support for the MIR Card "The card came into being after Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal suspended their services in Russia following its invasion of Ukraine."
www.bangkokpost.com
www.bangkokpost.com
And.. Russia wants imports (food products, rice, fruits, automobiles, auto parts, info tech) and support for the MIR Card "The card came into being after Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal suspended their services in Russia following its invasion of Ukraine."
Bangkok Post - The world’s window on Thailand | Breaking news, Thailand news, Latest news, World news
All the latest top stories and breaking news. Thailand’s most credible source of Thai and international developments. In-depth business and political news, leading Lifestyle trends, broad international sports coverage, plus English language learning
Russia eager to see trade top $10bn with Thailand
Russia is adamant about its push for bilateral trade with Thailand reaching US$10 billion (330 billion baht) a year after showing strong interest in investing in the kingdom, says Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Shows mass graves for an estimated ~5000 dead in Mariupol and grain silos in Ukraine destroyed by the Fascists/Nazis in power in Russia.
