Russia is in for a rough ride economically. They were headed for a rough patch anyway because their population mix is too top heavy with too many pensioners and too few workers. Japan hit that demographic bottleneck in the 1990s and has been in the doldrums for 25 years. China is headed for the sharpest demographic cliff because of the one child policy.
China will likely see their cost of labor soar, which will price them out of the market for making cheap goods.
China's economic base is more stable than Russia's though. China makes most of what it consumes. If they need to cut back, they can cut back exports and still do OK with a strong inner economy. Russia doesn't make much other than weapons, and they may see that market shrinking since their not getting very good advertising in Ukraine. "Buy our million dollar T-90, and see it obliterated with a $50,000 missile."
Outside of military hardware, Russia sells oil distillates, but the bulk of their economy is resource extraction: oil and gas, agriculture products, and minerals.
The world needs to adjust if those products go off the market, but they aren't a key source for any manufactured product. Compare this to Taiwan who makes some of the most complex integrated circuits in the world. If Taiwan goes offline, a bunch of manufacturing companies will have to stop their production lines.
Russia got dropped from the G8 in part because of what Putin did in Crimea, but also because their economy shrank in 2014 with the first round of sanctions. Russia is now the #11 economy in the world, which is staggering for the largest land mass in the world and a population of 145 million. Canada with a population around 35 million has a bigger GDP. They will probably drop below South Korea and then Australia in the next year or two.
List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia
If Russia has an economic downturn, but continues to sell resources to the world, it won't have much impact at all. If Russia has social unrest and resources can't be extracted, the world will have to scramble to fill the gaps from other sources, which may cause some bottlenecks. The most risky thing here is the nickle market. Russia supplies a lot of it and the world suddenly needs to expand production quite a bit.
Oil will be a bottleneck for a bit too if production fails due to unrest, but the world is spinning up production now because of the war.
On a tangent Perun has a new video about what Finland and Sweden joining NATO will mean
He makes the point that those two countries makes some scenarios for European wars with Russia that were remote to begin with even more remote, but adding those two countries makes weapons manufacturing easier, and allows the US to pivot to pay more attention to the Pacific with the NATO front more shored up.
I was thinking about that. Things like the My Lai Massacre did come from up the chain of command, but it was not the policy of the country, nor top leadership.
A couple of years ago a war criminal from Afghanistan was pardoned by the president. The top leadership of the military was outraged.
In front of one of the Azovstal buildings. See the tower in the background and the tank number...
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