Russia/Ukraine conflict

[lascavarian]

I keep wondering that when this is all over (and hopefully with Ukraine victorious), how quickly Elon/Tesla are going to expand there.

Slash dot.com notes the use of ebikes by soldiers. EV do not have a heat signature as distinct as ICE vehicles. Ebikes are being utilized for moving medicines etc and some tactical applications. I would suspect the same for Teslas.

 

[wdolson]

You think these MLRS are brought in by the US to destroy a bridge?

Defeating an enemy, especially a larger one requires finding their Achilles Heel and hitting it hard. Russia's supply system is great for defending Russia, but it's absolutely awful for operating outside of Russia.

The entire southern front is completely dependent on supply moving across the rail bridge they built across the Kerch Strait. Cut that line and the only way to move anything from mainland Russia to Crimea and then up to the southern front would have to be moved by ship or plane. The Black Sea fleet has a handful of landing ships they can press into the job, but they would only be able to move a fraction of the supply they are moving now.

Hitting heavily used rail bridges within Russia would also slow down supply in general, but the Russians have a large number of rail service people whose job is to repair knocked out rail bridges and other snarls on the rail system. The Kerch Strait bridge would take a lot more effort to replace than a rail bridge over a river or a road within Russia. It would probably take them a couple of months to repair it. And the Ukrainians could hit it with another missile from time to time to keep it knocked out.

The Kerch Strait bridge is a big bang for the buck target. The Ukrainians have already said they want to take it out, they just haven't had the means until now.

One reason the Ukrainians have done as well as they have is because of their ability to hit Russian logistics and supply as well as their officer corps.

Russian leadership is another Achilles Heel. Russia is a very top down army. Eliminate the leader and the soldiers will just sit there and do nothing. Nobody take initiative because Russian leadership hates that. The Russians have always feared their troops thinking for themselves because if they do, they might turn on their leadership.

Back in 1976 a Russian pilot defected to the west by flying his MiG-25 to Japan. The Japanese gave back the plane (after the US had a look at it), but the pilot got asylum in the US. I read a biography of him some years ago. He knew the Russian system was broken, but he had a hard time believing what his handlers were telling him. There were two things that convinced him they were telling the truth.

The first was when they were taking him to a safe house, they stopped at a supermarket to pick up supplies. He disappeared and the handlers had an initial panic. They found him staring at the meat case. He said he couldn't believe they had all that meat on display and neither was none of it rotten, but nobody was stealing it.

The second was they offered to show him anything he wanted to see. He wanted to see a US aircraft carrier up close. He watched deck operations on the carrier and he was convinced that the US military was vastly more professional top to bottom. On a carrier deck, the person in charge is an enlisted person. Pilots salute just before being launched and they are asking permission of the deck captain to leave the ship. An officer asking an enlisted person because the enlisted person is in charge of that task.

He watched how everybody worked as a highly skilled team to cycle planes on and off the deck and commented that he knew that would be completely impossible unless everyone on the deck, in command of the ship, and flying the planes trusted everyone else completely. He said that operating a carrier any way like that in the USSR would be impossible. Nobody trusted anyone else.

Supply and leadership are not Achilles Heels in more professional armies. The US is hyper focused on logistics and supply and always have plenty of supply units, plenty of supply on hand, and plenty of options to deliver it. Most of the US's allies may not be quite as hyper about it as the US, but they are all pretty good.

Generally democracies give all their troops a lot of permission for initiative on the battlefield. Heavy losses in leadership will be felt, but because everyone knows what they are supposed to do and are given permission to innovate, the loss of a leader will degrade the mission a bit, but everyone else will step up and do their best to accomplish the goals. Sometimes the person who replaces the fallen leader turns out to have more talent at leading than the person they replaced.

EDIT: New Perun video just up

This one on how corruption weakened the Russian military. For those who don't know, Perun has a series of videos where he does a deep dive into individual topics about the war. If you want to understand these things in depth, I recommend them.

 

[nativewolf]

He's just a troll @wdolson and as you and I both know trolls live under bridges. We're talking about blowing up a very long bridge. Naturally this has him alarmed.

 

[JRP3]

You think these MLRS are brought in by the US to destroy a bridge?

As long as they are used to harm the Russian aggressors who cares how they are used, right? Only an insane person would be in support of Russia's actions.

 

[EVCollies]

View attachment 810095

so you know who you are listening to

Institute for the Study of War​

From Wikipedia:
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a United States–based think tank founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan, providing research and analysis regarding issues of defense and foreign affairs. It has produced reports on the Syrian War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War, "focusing on military operations, enemy threats, and political trends in diverse conflict zones".[1][2] It currently publishes daily reports on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[3]

ISW was founded in response to the stagnation of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, with core funding provided by a group of defense contractors.[4] According to a mission statement on its website, ISW aims to provide "real-time, government-independent, and open-source analysis of ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks".[5] ISW currently operates as a nonprofit organization, supported by contributions from defense contractors[6] including General Dynamics, DynCorp,[7] and previously, Raytheon.[8] It is headquartered in Washington, D.C.[9]

ISW generally advocates for a hawkish foreign policy,[10][11][12][13][14] and has accepted donations from conservative organizations including the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Bradley Foundation.[15][16]

 

[nativewolf]

I thought it funny that the troll thought it disturbing to have real analysts discussing the failures of his war monger paetron.

 

[Doggydogworld]

The entire southern front is completely dependent on supply moving across the rail bridge they built across the Kerch Strait.

What? They have their land bridge from the Russian border all the way to Kherson and Crimea. That's the whole point of the southern front. The Kerch bridge is the long way around. Why would they supply Mariupol or Berdyansk via a 1000+ km circuitous route instead of the 100-150 km direct route? Even Kherson is a few hundred km closer via the land bridge, though safety/convenience might tip the scales in favor of the roundabout route in that case..

I don't mind if they go after the bridge, but the optics of US weapons destroying civilian infrastructure aren't great. I doubt it'd be a real popular move inside Crimea, either.

 

[BMW740iL]

Defeating an enemy, especially a larger one requires finding their Achilles Heel and hitting it hard. Russia's supply system is great for defending Russia, but it's absolutely awful for operating outside of Russia.

The entire southern front is completely dependent on supply moving across the rail bridge they built across the Kerch Strait. Cut that line and the only way to move anything from mainland Russia to Crimea and then up to the southern front would have to be moved by ship or plane. The Black Sea fleet has a handful of landing ships they can press into the job, but they would only be able to move a fraction of the supply they are moving now.

Hitting heavily used rail bridges within Russia would also slow down supply in general, but the Russians have a large number of rail service people whose job is to repair knocked out rail bridges and other snarls on the rail system. The Kerch Strait bridge would take a lot more effort to replace than a rail bridge over a river or a road within Russia. It would probably take them a couple of months to repair it. And the Ukrainians could hit it with another missile from time to time to keep it knocked out.

The Kerch Strait bridge is a big bang for the buck target. The Ukrainians have already said they want to take it out, they just haven't had the means until now.

One reason the Ukrainians have done as well as they have is because of their ability to hit Russian logistics and supply as well as their officer corps.

Russian leadership is another Achilles Heel. Russia is a very top down army. Eliminate the leader and the soldiers will just sit there and do nothing. Nobody take initiative because Russian leadership hates that. The Russians have always feared their troops thinking for themselves because if they do, they might turn on their leadership.

Back in 1976 a Russian pilot defected to the west by flying his MiG-25 to Japan. The Japanese gave back the plane (after the US had a look at it), but the pilot got asylum in the US. I read a biography of him some years ago. He knew the Russian system was broken, but he had a hard time believing what his handlers were telling him. There were two things that convinced him they were telling the truth.

The first was when they were taking him to a safe house, they stopped at a supermarket to pick up supplies. He disappeared and the handlers had an initial panic. They found him staring at the meat case. He said he couldn't believe they had all that meat on display and neither was none of it rotten, but nobody was stealing it.

The second was they offered to show him anything he wanted to see. He wanted to see a US aircraft carrier up close. He watched deck operations on the carrier and he was convinced that the US military was vastly more professional top to bottom. On a carrier deck, the person in charge is an enlisted person. Pilots salute just before being launched and they are asking permission of the deck captain to leave the ship. An officer asking an enlisted person because the enlisted person is in charge of that task.

He watched how everybody worked as a highly skilled team to cycle planes on and off the deck and commented that he knew that would be completely impossible unless everyone on the deck, in command of the ship, and flying the planes trusted everyone else completely. He said that operating a carrier any way like that in the USSR would be impossible. Nobody trusted anyone else.

Supply and leadership are not Achilles Heels in more professional armies. The US is hyper focused on logistics and supply and always have plenty of supply units, plenty of supply on hand, and plenty of options to deliver it. Most of the US's allies may not be quite as hyper about it as the US, but they are all pretty good.

Generally democracies give all their troops a lot of permission for initiative on the battlefield. Heavy losses in leadership will be felt, but because everyone knows what they are supposed to do and are given permission to innovate, the loss of a leader will degrade the mission a bit, but everyone else will step up and do their best to accomplish the goals. Sometimes the person who replaces the fallen leader turns out to have more talent at leading than the person they replaced.

EDIT: New Perun video just up

This one on how corruption weakened the Russian military. For those who don't know, Perun has a series of videos where he does a deep dive into individual topics about the war. If you want to understand these things in depth, I recommend them.

I watched the video. Why are the russians winning when they are so incompetent?

 

[iPlug]

If Ukraine choses to go long game on this, advantage is likely theirs.

Some European countries will continue to waiver, but US, UK, Poland et al will likely continue to provide supplies and logistics. MLRS + heavy artillery with endless replenishment will severely hamper Russia resupply, manpower, and ultimately their will to fight. In that situation, Russia could probably keep up for many months but not many years.

 

[BMW740iL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530941593473019904

 

[iPlug]

Russia had their peak weapons at time zero and their highest-end tech supplies are diminishing. Ukraine is just now ramping up on those heavy weapons and the West continues to up their offerings. The longer the war drags on, the more the West will be willing to train Ukranians to use more sophisticated weapons systems.

 

[EVCollies]

Defeating an enemy, especially a larger one requires finding their Achilles Heel and hitting it hard. Russia's supply system is great for defending Russia, but it's absolutely awful for operating outside of Russia.

The entire southern front is completely dependent on supply moving across the rail bridge they built across the Kerch Strait. Cut that line and the only way to move anything from mainland Russia to Crimea and then up to the southern front would have to be moved by ship or plane. The Black Sea fleet has a handful of landing ships they can press into the job, but they would only be able to move a fraction of the supply they are moving now.

Hitting heavily used rail bridges within Russia would also slow down supply in general, but the Russians have a large number of rail service people whose job is to repair knocked out rail bridges and other snarls on the rail system. The Kerch Strait bridge would take a lot more effort to replace than a rail bridge over a river or a road within Russia. It would probably take them a couple of months to repair it. And the Ukrainians could hit it with another missile from time to time to keep it knocked out.

The Kerch Strait bridge is a big bang for the buck target. The Ukrainians have already said they want to take it out, they just haven't had the means until now.

One reason the Ukrainians have done as well as they have is because of their ability to hit Russian logistics and supply as well as their officer corps.

Russian leadership is another Achilles Heel. Russia is a very top down army. Eliminate the leader and the soldiers will just sit there and do nothing. Nobody take initiative because Russian leadership hates that. The Russians have always feared their troops thinking for themselves because if they do, they might turn on their leadership.

Back in 1976 a Russian pilot defected to the west by flying his MiG-25 to Japan. The Japanese gave back the plane (after the US had a look at it), but the pilot got asylum in the US. I read a biography of him some years ago. He knew the Russian system was broken, but he had a hard time believing what his handlers were telling him. There were two things that convinced him they were telling the truth.

The first was when they were taking him to a safe house, they stopped at a supermarket to pick up supplies. He disappeared and the handlers had an initial panic. They found him staring at the meat case. He said he couldn't believe they had all that meat on display and neither was none of it rotten, but nobody was stealing it.

The second was they offered to show him anything he wanted to see. He wanted to see a US aircraft carrier up close. He watched deck operations on the carrier and he was convinced that the US military was vastly more professional top to bottom. On a carrier deck, the person in charge is an enlisted person. Pilots salute just before being launched and they are asking permission of the deck captain to leave the ship. An officer asking an enlisted person because the enlisted person is in charge of that task.

He watched how everybody worked as a highly skilled team to cycle planes on and off the deck and commented that he knew that would be completely impossible unless everyone on the deck, in command of the ship, and flying the planes trusted everyone else completely. He said that operating a carrier any way like that in the USSR would be impossible. Nobody trusted anyone else.

Supply and leadership are not Achilles Heels in more professional armies. The US is hyper focused on logistics and supply and always have plenty of supply units, plenty of supply on hand, and plenty of options to deliver it. Most of the US's allies may not be quite as hyper about it as the US, but they are all pretty good.

Generally democracies give all their troops a lot of permission for initiative on the battlefield. Heavy losses in leadership will be felt, but because everyone knows what they are supposed to do and are given permission to innovate, the loss of a leader will degrade the mission a bit, but everyone else will step up and do their best to accomplish the goals. Sometimes the person who replaces the fallen leader turns out to have more talent at leading than the person they replaced.

EDIT: New Perun video just up

This one on how corruption weakened the Russian military. For those who don't know, Perun has a series of videos where he does a deep dive into individual topics about the war. If you want to understand these things in depth, I recommend them.

+1 Patreon for Perun

 

[BMW740iL]

The Road to the Russo-Ukrainian War

The war in Ukraine will end, one way or another. But just like before the conflict, there is currently no viable plan at the elite level on what should be done after the war ends.

contra.substack.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530941593473019904

Reuters disagrees:

Ukrainian defenders hold out in Donbas city under heavy fire​

KYIV/KHARKIV, Ukraine, May 29 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces endured heavy artillery barrages on Sunday as they held off Russian attempts to capture Sievierodonetsk, the largest city Ukraine still controls in the eastern region of Luhansk, officials said. /... [My underline.]

And as usual Head Fascist Putler has destroyed everything that he is trying to steal:

.../ Russian shelling has destroyed all of Sievierodonetsk's critical infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, adding that Moscow's main aim right now was to take the city.

"Some 90% of buildings are damaged. More than two-thirds of the city's housing stock has been completely destroyed. There is no telecommunication. There is constant shelling," Zelenskiy said in a televised speech. /... [My underline.]

Source:

Ukrainian defenders hold out in Donbas city under heavy fire

Russian forces intensified their attacks with barrages of heavy artillery to capture a key Ukrainian city in the southeastern region of Donbas, whose full takeover Moscow's top diplomat said was now an "unconditional priority".

www.reuters.com

 

[bkp_duke]

I watched the video. Why are the russians winning when they are so incompetent?

Is this a freaking joke? Ukraine has an armed forces smaller than the bulk of any near-peer country. China, South Korea, Japan, etc. FORGET being remotely close to the US.

With that said, against Ukraine, Russia stalled out and could not take Kviy, and FULLY withdrew from the northern front. The Russian have, by even their on reports, 30,000+ casualties in just 3 months. That more than the USSR lost in 9 years in Afghanistan. They have been CRAWLING on any advance in the east.

If the Russians are winning, why do they need to bring forward 50 year old T-62 tanks? Even an RPG from the 1980s is going to do serious damage and likely incapacitate that kind of hardware.


Nuclear weapons aside, Russia's "military might" is a farce. A JOKE. And their leadership is an even bigger joke. It's the pinnacle of corruption, per my Russian neighbor. Anyone in any position of military leadership is not there because of any skills they may have, it's simply because they are friends of Putin, and bought the position so that they could get their hands on lucrative military contracts. Every military has corruption, but the Russians appear to be challenging North Korea and certain African nations for the #1 spto. It's like their generals "studied" war by googling "how to conduct an invasion" the week before the invasion actually started, and even then it appears they didn't pay attention. War college? "What's that?" they said. It's clear they didn't think this through AT ALL, or were too chicken to tell Putin the truth about how things could go wrong invading a country that would not welcome them with open arms.


No, Ukraine is the meat grinder that is going to produce a generation of orphans for the Russians. It may take 18 months, but Russia is clearly going to be pushed out of the country, and that probably includes Crimea as well. All because their leadership are morons. And that's saying a LOT, given how we've had Trump (narcist) and now Biden (demented fossil).

EDIT - and the US and other Western powers are LOVING this. They get to test military hardware and tactics (i.e. mini-drone warfare) with zero risk to their own troops and population. And they aren't even sending the GOOD STUFF over to Ukraine.

 

[wdolson]

He's just a troll @wdolson and as you and I both know trolls live under bridges. We're talking about blowing up a very long bridge. Naturally this has him alarmed.

For the benefit of those just reading along, sometimes it has to be explained why they should ignore a troll. I'm hesitant to call anyone a troll right off the bat. I have sometimes thought someone was a troll when that wasn't really their intention and after further discussion it turned out they were working on bad information or had come to a different conclusion.

Institute for the Study of War​

From Wikipedia:
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a United States–based think tank founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan, providing research and analysis regarding issues of defense and foreign affairs. It has produced reports on the Syrian War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War, "focusing on military operations, enemy threats, and political trends in diverse conflict zones".[1][2] It currently publishes daily reports on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[3]

ISW was founded in response to the stagnation of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, with core funding provided by a group of defense contractors.[4] According to a mission statement on its website, ISW aims to provide "real-time, government-independent, and open-source analysis of ongoing military operations and insurgent attacks".[5] ISW currently operates as a nonprofit organization, supported by contributions from defense contractors[6] including General Dynamics, DynCorp,[7] and previously, Raytheon.[8] It is headquartered in Washington, D.C.[9]

ISW generally advocates for a hawkish foreign policy,[10][11][12][13][14] and has accepted donations from conservative organizations including the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Bradley Foundation.[15][16]

They may have a hawkish policy agenda (which I don't generally agree with), but their analysis of the actual war is good quality. Both can co-exist in the same organization and I can take away one without buying the other.

What? They have their land bridge from the Russian border all the way to Kherson and Crimea. That's the whole point of the southern front. The Kerch bridge is the long way around. Why would they supply Mariupol or Berdyansk via a 1000+ km circuitous route instead of the 100-150 km direct route? Even Kherson is a few hundred km closer via the land bridge, though safety/convenience might tip the scales in favor of the roundabout route in that case..

I don't mind if they go after the bridge, but the optics of US weapons destroying civilian infrastructure aren't great. I doubt it'd be a real popular move inside Crimea, either.

Once Donbas is stabilized the Ukrainians will likely pivot south. The Russian forces between Luhansk and the Dneiper are thin. The Ukrainians are already operating partisans deep in this territory. What rail lines the Russians have been able to get working in that region are probably either are or will be vulnerable to interdiction. Rocket systems that can hit the Kerch bridge can also hit rail bridges in this region too.

The Ukrainians can drive the Russian rail road repair crews nuts and run them ragged by constantly knocking out rail bridges in southern Russia and in occupied territories. They will be repaired fairly quickly, but it will disrupt rail traffic. And if the Ukrainians do move south, I expect they will aim to slice directly down to the Azoz west of Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530941593473019904

I prefer more reliable sources. This person is a Russian shill who also frequently retweets Nina Byzantina who is the ex wife of Richard Spencer and has been a very vocal pro-Russian shill.

I'd rather read the take of retired western generals who have training in this sort of thing or academics who have committed their lives to learning about how war works who aren't in Putin's pocket.

For example this take from today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530930446304935936

He's a British college professor whose is an expert on international conflicts
Dr Mike Martin's Bio

 

[FlatSix911]

Slash dot.com notes the use of ebikes by soldiers. EV do not have a heat signature as distinct as ICE vehicles.
Ebikes are being utilized for moving medicines etc and some tactical applications. I would suspect the same for Teslas.

Regarding Military eBikes - Let us try... Essayons! (The official motto of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

Ukraine is now using these 200-mile-range electric bikes with NLAW rockets to take out Russian tanks

Ukrainian electric motorbike company Delfast has seen its electric bikes used for some vastly diverse tasks, such as breaking Guinness...

electrek.co

"The bikes used by Ukrainian defenders have been modified to carry NLAW rockets, or Next Generation Light Anti-Armour Weapons, which are specially designed to allow a single operator to destroy an enemy tank. The rockets are designed to be human-portable and carried by infantry, but the 28 lb. (12.5 kg) weapon is much easier to haul over long distances when carried on the back of an electric bike.

Such portable anti-tank weapons are a game-changer in Ukraine’s fight to defend its sovereign territory from a Russian takeover, but their use isn’t without significant risk. Real life isn’t like Counterstrike, and this isn’t a video game. Getting into position in an open area to fire an NLAW or a similar US Javelin missile is incredibly risky, often exposing the operator to the enemy tank’s main cannon or multiple heavy machine guns. The use of a high-power electric bike to quickly and quietly reach a firing position can significantly reduce the soldier’s exposure and improve the mission success outlook."

This quiet electric motorcycle is helping Ukrainian snipers fight back against the Russians

Electric bikes and motorcycles have been seeing increased military use for several years. So it should come as no surprise...

electrek.co

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530941593473019904

ISW also disagrees:

"
.../ Russian forces continued to assault Severodonetsk on May 29 but did not make any confirmed advances; Russian progress in intense urban combat will likely be slow. /.../

Russian forces continued ground assaults against Severodonetsk itself on May 29, though ISW cannot confirm any specific advances. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on May 29 that Russian troops intend to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and cut the main Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area, as ISW has previously assessed.[5] Russian forces additionally attempted to advance northward toward Severodonetsk from Bobrove and Ustynivka.[6] Head of Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai emphasized that Ukrainian troops are still in control of Severodonetsk, denying Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s false claims that Severodonetsk is under full Russian control as of May 28.[7] Haidai additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a limited counterattack and drove a Russian grouping out of Toshkivka, which may put pressure on Russian operations in the vicinity of Popasna.[8] [My underline.] /...
"

Source:

Institute for the Study of War

New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 28, forcing Russian forces onto the defensive. This Ukrainian counterattack is likely intended to disrupt Russian

www.understandingwar.org

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I watched the video. Why are the russians winning when they are so incompetent?

Those two sentences may perhaps work on someone who hasn't been following Head Fascist Putler's total WAR, Genocide and Crime against Humanity in Ukraine and who hasn't watched the Perun Youtube-segment titled: "How Corruption Destroys Armies - Theft, Graft, and Russian failure in Ukraine"...

But. Those two sentences completely fall apart for those of us that has actually taken the time and watched that entire Youtube-segment.

And in closing I'll just say this:

Working for Head Fascist Putler in any kind of capacity seems to come with a really stellar occupational safety and health. Especially when it comes to one's mental health!

 

[X Fan]

US preparing to send full fledged MLRS to Ukraine according to CNN reports

And yet we have the Germans which continue to stall and perhaps renege on their arms promises.

Article from telegraph: Germany has not sent promised large arms to Ukraine, leaked documents show