Tiger
Active Member
ROTFL
- a true case of pot calling the kettle names Life, ...., fiction has no chance.
-
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
ROTFL
- a true case of pot calling the kettle names Life, ...., fiction has no chance.
petit_bateau
Active Member
This may be of interest to some here :
www.theguardian.com
Negative views of Russia mainly limited to western liberal democracies, poll shows
Annual global survey of attitudes to democracy finds many countries maintain positive views of Russia
www.theguardian.com
it's ironic that many of those countries that have would not cut economic ties with Russia, will soon suffer from famine caused by Russia's war.This may be of interest to some here :
Negative views of Russia mainly limited to western liberal democracies, poll shows
Annual global survey of attitudes to democracy finds many countries maintain positive views of Russia
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I found this allegedly intercepted phone call interesting. If it's correct then it describes a large group of Russian soldiers being threatened by some kind of Russian 'special forces' unit. They both pointed their weapons at each other while their commander where screaming and firing his gun. The Russian troops stood their ground. They are currently refusing to fight.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukraine has taken back Mykolajivka situated on the Dnepr river. If true – then they have split Head Fascist Putler's troops on the eastern side of the Dnepr river into two different areas. A bunch of Putler's troops have allegedly fled in panic as a result.
EDIT: Apparently there are two different Mykolajivka in this very region. So it's unfortunately still unclear which one they've taken. They might not have reached the village at the actual river...
Source (in Ukrainian):
www.facebook.com
Trough (in Swedish):
cornucopia.se
EDIT: Apparently there are two different Mykolajivka in this very region. So it's unfortunately still unclear which one they've taken. They might not have reached the village at the actual river...
Source (in Ukrainian):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Оперативна інформація станом на 18.00 30.05.2022 щодо російського вторгнення Відео (речник Генерального Штабу Збройних Сил України Олександр Штупун) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i_dOkC_7EI...
www.facebook.com
Trough (in Swedish):
UPPDATERAS: Ukrainsk motoffensiv mot Cherson på två täter - ryska T-62 förstörda - terrorbombningar av flera städer inklusive Charkiv och Mykolajiv
Medan Ryssland inte verkar gjort några framsteg senaste dygnet har det ukrainska motanfallet norr om Cherson stegats upp till en motoffensiv på två täter mot Cherson. Explosioner ska återigen hörts från metalltuggen Chornobajivka flygplats. Ukrainas försvarsledning rapporterar att man i offensiven f
cornucopia.se
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X Fan
Active Member
So much for Biden giving Ukraine a key resource (MLRS) for the war against Ru:
U.S. will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia, says Biden
Of course, given his mental acuity, he could forget tomorrow and say he will send them.
U.S. will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia, says Biden
Of course, given his mental acuity, he could forget tomorrow and say he will send them.
Terminator857
Active Member
I'm having trouble locating Mykolajivka on a map? Can someone supply a google maps link or GPS coordinates?
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
EDIT: Apparently there are two different Mykolajivka in this very region. So it's unfortunately still unclear which one they've taken. They might not have reached the village at the actual river...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I guessed it was this one:
Google Maps
Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.
www.google.com
But again, it seems it's all still unclear...
petit_bateau
Active Member
I think this means that MLRS are going to Ukraine but the munitions will not be the full suite. The munitions vary from approx 40km range to 400km range. I'm guessing only the shorter range stuff will be supplied, not enough to hit the Kerch bridge for example.
USA and NATO are being very careful not to a) give casus belli for Russia to unleash a tactical nuke or b) claim this is a proxy NATO attack on ghe motherland or c) both. Equally the Ukraine appears to run its own autonomous target selection list and RoE and this is actually better given the NATO concern. However it means once a weapon goes across the border, then Ukraine is sovereign in control. So only way to minimise escalation risk is to be careful with actual munitions selected for shipment.
It is a hard world. Biden is doing fine.
Kerch Bridge in Ukrainian territory (on the Ukrainian side of the Kerch Strait) is a legitimate target. In that area, the Russians are occupiers, and it is not internationally recognized Russian territory.
Tiger
Active Member
Listening to this (translation) it actually feels Ukraine should play with Russia and push them back and forth to utrely grind them down, finish them, instead of trying to push them out of the Ukraine territory. The other countries subjugated by Russia will eventually rise up once the Russian army has been properly minched.
X Fan
Active Member
Memorial Day announcements should drive home the point that evil needs to be stopped. Thus, Biden was wrong to announce that today….makes him look even weaker than he is on the world stage.
FWIW: NATO has taken sides…..Russia clearly knows that.
These are clearly weapons that Ukraine needs to stop RU‘s Eastern assault.
Also, most articles I’m seeing is that the units won’t be sent either (after articles floating (trial PR ballon perhaps) that they would be sent).
USMC veteran and sorry to the “disagree” tribalists, I’m not a fan of Biden‘s military (cough Afghanistan) and Presidential competence.
edit: appropriate WSJ editorial today diacussing Biden’s waffling titled “Biden’s Ukraine Anbivalance”
Opinion | Biden’s Ukraine Ambivalence
The President is withholding rocket launchers and won’t help with food exports.
www.wsj.com
Excerpt:
”Sometimes it’s hard to tell if President Biden and his strategists want Ukraine to win its defensive war against Russia, or merely survive to sign a truce with more of its former territory under Russian control. That ambivalence is returning as an issue as Russian forces make new military gains in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.”
…..
”The Russians have an artillery and rocket advantage in range and firepower and can inflict horrible losses on Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian forces have received some howitzers from the U.S., but they also need rocket-launch systems that can fire from longer range. The best defense against artillery is artillery and air power, including rockets. U.S. rocket systems would reduce Russia’s artillery edge and perhaps slow its advance.”
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Tiger
Active Member
It surprises me, where is the element of surprise, when they announce weapons deliveries in advance? Or do they?
Thank you for your service.
Respectfully, I am grateful to have competent people in positions of power here and in most parts of the world dealing with this situation. We also agree that evil cannot be allowed to win.
All of you military strategists who were going on about Russia having to pull out due to their depleted resources are looking funny right now. We even had one person in this very thread postulate that they would be out of viable artillery ammunition "in a couple of weeks" 8 weeks ago.
Don't believe me? Go back and start reading at page 10 or so and you will see how poorly this thread has aged. Stop living your fantasies out online and shame on the dolts who have fed in to your nonsense.
Don't believe me? Go back and start reading at page 10 or so and you will see how poorly this thread has aged. Stop living your fantasies out online and shame on the dolts who have fed in to your nonsense.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Well, legitimately I guess someone could say they were "half right". Russia did turn tail and withdraw completely from the entire northern front. They also haven't been able to get Belarus to join the fight, and if you listen to the pro-Putin crowd (pretty small crowd, mind you), that was a given.
This may be of interest to some here :
Negative views of Russia mainly limited to western liberal democracies, poll shows
Annual global survey of attitudes to democracy finds many countries maintain positive views of Russia
Inside liberal democracies strong man leaders can have some appeal, but a lot less than in other types of governments. Most non-democracies, or weak democracies have strong man leaders of one type or another and the people are used to that kind of leadership. The concept that a more soft spoken elected leader could actually be a strong, powerful leader where it counts is alien.
So to them Putin is doing what good strong men do and subduing their neighbors.
It's still disheartening to read, but I'm not surprised.
Very interesting. It also dove tails with what I've been reading about rock bottom morale among the Russian troops.
It's also related to one of Kamil Galeev's recent threads
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
The Russians are desperately trying to recruit volunteers from the rural parts of Russia, but they are getting few takers. They have increased salaries for contract troops dramatically, but they can't recruit anyone.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukraine has taken back Mykolajivka situated on the Dnepr river. If true – then they have split Head Fascist Putler's troops on the eastern side of the Dnepr river into two different areas. A bunch of Putler's troops have allegedly fled in panic as a result.
EDIT: Apparently there are two different Mykolajivka in this very region. So it's unfortunately still unclear which one they've taken. They might not have reached the village at the actual river...
Source (in Ukrainian):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Оперативна інформація станом на 18.00 30.05.2022 щодо російського вторгнення Відео (речник Генерального Штабу Збройних Сил України Олександр Штупун) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4i_dOkC_7EI...
Trough (in Swedish):
UPPDATERAS: Ukrainsk motoffensiv mot Cherson på två täter - ryska T-62 förstörda - terrorbombningar av flera städer inklusive Charkiv och Mykolajiv
Medan Ryssland inte verkar gjort några framsteg senaste dygnet har det ukrainska motanfallet norr om Cherson stegats upp till en motoffensiv på två täter mot Cherson. Explosioner ska återigen hörts från metalltuggen Chornobajivka flygplats. Ukrainas försvarsledning rapporterar att man i offensiven f
According to this the Mykolajivka liberated in near Kherson. There is a village of the same name in Donesk from what I can see.
In Kherson region, the Ukrainian armed forces knocked out the enemy from Mykolaivka – General Staff
I guess it's the Ukrainian Springfield (that's the most frequently reused town name in the US).
Another interesting tidbit is I saw an article somewhere else about that crashed helicopter at the header of the article. The Ukrainians claim it's an Mi-35MS, which is a VIP helicopter used by generals and other high ranking people.
Why do people keep saying he's senile? I see not signs of senility. He does have a speech impediment that is a byproduct of the therapy he had to do to overcome his childhood stutter. As a result of the stutter, he has some aphasia which means he spits out the wrong words.
He's the oldest president the US has ever had, but my father could out hike me when he was older than Biden is now and worked until he was in his mid-80s. The last president was the oldest the US had to date and nobody was saying he was senile when he sounded like he had just escaped a dementia ward.
The political positions of the two men aside, I think the current president shows a lot more mental acuity than the last one.
That was my reading of it too. People are up in arms about the announcement because they don't understand that the launcher has a wide range of ammunition and you can send the launcher with any of the array of ammunition available.
The problem is that Russia claims that Crimea is now part of Russia, so they could interpret an attack on Crimea as an attack on Russia itself. However the Ukrainians have attacked across the border already and while Russia has whined, there is no evidence they are planning to go nuclear about it.
I can't find it right now, but my partner saw something last night that the 58th Combined Arms Army (RU) which is responsible for holding all the territory between Donesk and Kherson Oblast is very under strength. In the Russia army a Combined Arms Army is the equivalent to a corps in most other armies. And the Russians usually use a bipod instead of triangular formation. So normal strength for a Russian army is two divisions or four brigades. (Normal strength for a US corps is 3 divisions, though that can vary.)
According to what she read, the 58th Combined Arms Army has been reduced to two brigades because their units have been pulled off to fight in Donbas. That's a vast stretch of territory being held by a very small force.
Armies in the past have paid dearly for that sort of thing. At Stalingrad the Germans stripped their flanks to send better units into the city. The flanks were held by under strength allied units (Hungarian, Italian, Romanian) and the Russians counter attacked there. The Russians could do maneuver warfare in 1943 and they quickly exploited the breakthrough on the German flanks surrounding Stalingrad.
At the start of the Battle of the Ardennes (Battle of the Bulge) in December 1944, the US had some new divisions with no experience and spread out thinner than they should protecting the Ardennes, which was also the boundary line between the British and American forces. The Germans punched through those weak units stretched too thin and penetrated fairly deep into the allied lines before running out of momentum and the allies were able to stop them.
The Ukrainians might be building up a mobile force, or they might not. Hard to tell. Western countries have been sending vehicles to Ukraine which would be useful for mobile warfare, but I haven't seen any reports of them showing up in Donbas or Kherson. It could just be the new equipment isn't ready to deploy yet, or it could mean they are putting together a unit for mobile warfare once the Russians run out of steam in Donbas.
If it's the latter, hitting the Russians in the south between Donesk and Kherson is the place where they could get the best bang for their buck. If the 58th is really that weak, they could push all the way to the Azoz. If the Ukrainians were able to do that, I would modify some of the Harpoons they are getting and use them on the Kerch Strait bridge. That would starve all Russian forces to their west.
Kamil Galeev thinks it's possible that a number of Russian republics might rebel if the army gets too weak. There is evidence Kadyrov is planning just that and his position as a commander in Ukraine gives him great intelligence on the condition of the Russian army.
Allowing the Russians to move does present better targets to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians were trained in insurgency warfare by the Americans between the 2014 invasion of Crimea and early this year. The plan was to wear down the Russians like the Afghans did to the US.
Rebellion within Russia would be a good outcome for both NATO and Ukraine. The government may be able to put it down, but it would make their war effort almost impossible.
The media is misinterpreting what Biden said.
I was surprised to read the longest range MRLS missiles were being given to Ukraine and I'm not surprised by the clarification announcement. From what I understand Ukraine is getting MRLS, they just aren't getting the longest range missiles. I believe the stockpile of long range missiles for those systems is rather small to begin with. The short and medium range are in much larger supply.
The Russians are very low on guided munitions. They have been firing anti-ship missiles from the Black Sea fleet at land targets because they are out of sea borne sea to land missiles. The Iskanders which were very active in the first weeks of the war have been used far less than they were early in the war.
Russian artillery attacks in general are down from early in the war. They are probably still able to make at least some non-guided artillery, but they are stripping captured washing machines for ersatz parts for their guided missile manufacturing.
Lanchester's Law is having an effect on the Russians. The thing with that is that predicting ahead of time when the collapse is going to happen is difficult. I was definitely off on the timing, but the army is being whittled down.
Somebody posted above an intercepted phone call between a soldier and his mother. He and his BTG refused to fight and he gave some specifics. He said the normal strength of his unit was 600 and they had 215 left. He said other BTGs were down to 200-300 men. He also said they were running out of everything. They had 2 vehicles and 2 artillery pieces left.
When a unit got that depleted, especially on offense, in most armies, they would be pulled out of the line and rebuilt, but the Russians are flogging their broken units to achieve their objectives. This is burning up their military.
So I will cop to being off on the time of my predictions, not the eventual outcome.
