Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

UK seems to be contemplating sending some MLRS

U.K. seeks U.S. approval to send rocket systems to Ukraine

The proposal to send U.S.-made Multiple Launch Rocket Systems comes after the White House announced it is sending similar weapons.

www.politico.com

(btw the Canadian chap posting on twitter may be dodgy)

 

[wdolson]

UK seems to be contemplating sending some MLRS

U.K. seeks U.S. approval to send rocket systems to Ukraine

The proposal to send U.S.-made Multiple Launch Rocket Systems comes after the White House announced it is sending similar weapons.

www.politico.com

(btw the Canadian chap posting on twitter may be dodgy)

Many of the western English speaking people fighting for Ukraine talk about tactical things they know in their sector of the war. This guy talks about things going on in all fronts which I have found suspicious.

He was talking the other day about Russian troops massing on the border near Kyiv again. The Russians may have moved up a small harassing force to keep the border troops on alert, but they don't have the manpower nor the equipment to make another attempt at Kyiv with more than 1/3 of their combat forces trying to take one small town in the Donbas.

Maybe rumors about another attempt on Kyiv are floating around, but it's unsubstantiated scuttlebutt if it is.

If he is real, his factuality is suspect. My partner has been following him because he was recommended by an American who had been fighting over there and went home for a while to deal with some stuff at home.

 

[bkp_duke]

Fantastic video:

No surprise, it all comes back to oil and gas for Russia. Just like Iraq and Kuwait did for the USA.

 

[ZeApelido]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532429021308506112

 

[iPlug]

NY Times is reporting that President Macky Sall of Senegal, the African Union’s chairman, will meet with Putin on Friday and urge him to lift Russia’s blockade on Ukranian grain and fertilizer.

Putin has done much meddling in Africa over the years and he is not as generally hated there as in the West. But there are limits as most of these are poor countries with food scarcity issues. Good for the African Union to pressure him directly and not allow Putin to reframe reality into some gaslit nonsense he tries to perpetuate.

African Union Head Has Plea for Putin: Release Ukraine’s Grain.

 

[wdolson]

Trent Telenko answered a question from here a few days ago
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Why Russia hasn't collapsed yet, but the Ukrainians are pushing Russia towards a Lanchester square collapse.

 

[wdolson]

Kamil Galeev talking about the nuts and bolts of how things work in Russia. In this essay he makes the point that the Russian army is incapable of expanding via mass conscription or even call up of the theoretical reserves (who are just conscripts who got out in the last few years and have had no training since). In the last 30 years all mechanisms for mass expansion were dismantled. They would have to rebuild the system from scratch to do mass conscription now.
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App

If the Forbes article I posted a couple of days ago is correct, they aren't going to have the trainers to train anybody, even their yearly class of recruits once those people get rounded up and sent to the war.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Don't remember if this has been posted:

Putin Fires Five Generals as Russia's Military Failures in Ukraine Continue

Putin dismissed the senior military officials from their positions in a decree reportedly issued on Monday.

www.newsweek.com

 

[wdolson]

Fantastic video:

No surprise, it all comes back to oil and gas for Russia. Just like Iraq and Kuwait did for the USA.

I knew some of this, but it's a good video putting things into historical perspective and there were some details I wasn't aware of. One thing they didn't talk about was how badly the Soviets messed up their oil infrastructure. When the USSR fell apart western oil companies were hired in droves to help them fix their oil fields. After decades of Soviet mismanagement some fields were only producing 10-20% of the oil they could produce. The rehab brought the fields up to full potential.

Trent Telenko thinks Russia has reached its culmination point
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

It looks like Ukraine set a trap at Severodonetsk and they are now counter attacking, causing high losses among the Russians. I've seen reports that the Russians are throwing 25 and as many as 35 BTGs into Severodonetsk. That's a high concentration of force for one small city. The Ukrainians let them gain some ground, but now they are out of their trenches and stuck in an urban environment, they are counterattacking and taking out a lot of Russian personnel and equipment.

He also reports on long term logistics
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Russia has been losing the equivalent of 2/3 of a BTG in equipment every day on average. That's 66 BTGs of equipment gone so far. He estimates the Russians have close to 80,000 dead and seriously wounded.

Ukraine has an ever growing pool of equipment between captured equipment and NATO equipment coming in.

Russia is incapable of increasing their conscription system without reinventing their Soviet era system. That would take a lot of work in a society not known for high competence. Ukraine is calling up and training troops faster than casualties are reducing manpower. So they have a growing army.

 

[[email protected]]

Russia running out of everything:

How Russia, And Putin, Are Weaponizing, Losing And Running Out Of ... Everything​

Moon of Alabama earlier explored how Russia was weaponizing everything. This after Donald Trump had done so many good things for Russia. Then Putin lost everything he ever might have had.

It has been getting worse since.

Now Russia, and Putin himself, are 'running out' of whatever may have been left.

• Russia running out of ‘easy’ oil
  Nov 28 2021 - RT
• Why Putin is acting like a man who has run out of time
  Dec 23 2021 - Guardian
• Russia warns it's 'run out of patience' while doubling down on demands the US and NATO have said they won't accept
  Jan 14 2022 - Business Insider
• Italy could run out of gas due to Russia crisis – analysts
  Feb 23 2022 - Montel
• Rubio warns Putin's 'time is running out on this earth'
  Mar 2 2022 - Washington Examiner
• Putin is running out of options
  Mar 3 2022 - New Statesman

• Russian labs run out of equipment as sanctions begin to bite
  Mar 7 2022 - Science Business
• Putin’s depleted army is running out of time
  Mar 23 2022 - Spectator
• Russia running out of precision munitions in Ukraine war- Pentagon official
  Mar 25 2022 - Reuters
• Pentagon claim: Russia is running out of ammunition.
  Mar 25 2022 - Sach Khabrain
• Is the Russian Military Running Out of Soldiers?
  Mar 28 2022 - Russia Matters
• Russia May Be Running Out of Missiles
  Mar 29 2022 - Newsmax
• Russia Running Out Of Kh-55 Cruise Missiles Which Iran, China Have
  Apr 3 2022 - IranIntl
• Putin running out of missiles, jets and tanks because they're made in Ukraine
  Apr 4 2022 - Mirror
• Russian billionaires are running out of havens to stash their fortunes
  Apr 8 2022 - Sydney Morning Herald
• The Russian army is running out of options
  Apr 9 2022 - Spectator
• Is Russia Running Out of Money?
  Apr 26 2022 - Trustnodes
• SCORCHED EARTH Now humiliated Putin is running out of MISSILES in desperate bid to defeat Ukraine, UK armed forces chief tells TalkTV
  May 5 2022 - Sun
• ‘Struggling’ Vladimir Putin is running out of missiles, UK says
  May 6 2022 - News.au
• Putin under intense pressure and could be running out of missiles, says UK army chief
  May 6 2022 - Mirror
• EMBARRASSING: Russia Now Running Out of Missiles to Make War With
  May 6 2022 - USSANews
• Putin could be running out of missiles and is waging a 'logistics war' to keep his forces supplied - and his generals now blame one another for the 'disaster' invasion amid fears of being purged
  May 6 2022 - Daily Mail
• Russia running out of weapons, can be defeated by Ukraine – UK Secretary
  May 9 2022 - Daily Trust
• Putin 'running out of bombs' and resorting to 'indiscriminate' civilian attacks, says UK
  May 9 2022 - Daily Star
• Russia is running out of precision-guided munitions and may struggle to replenish their stocks, says UK Defense Ministry
  May 9 2022 - New Voice Of Ukraine
• Putin is Running Out of Ideas on What to do Next
  May 10 2022 - Bloomberg
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is running out of steam, again
  May 16 2022 - Economist
• Is Russia running out of missiles? US, Russia send mixed messages
  May 16 2022 - Jerusalem Post
• 'Russia is running out of manpower' and Putin may have to shrink his war aims more: national security analyst
  May 16 2022 - Raw Story
• Explainer: Is Russia Running Low on Missiles?
  May 17 2022 - Moscow Times
• Vladimir Putin is running out of options to avoid defeat in Ukraine
  May 17 2022 - Atlantic Council
• Putin is running out of soldiers and resorts to an “army of grandfathers” who retired 10 years ago
  May 17 2022 - CvvNews
• Crippled Russia running out of weapons as embarrassing war ending looms 'Shockingly inept'
  May 21 2022 - Express
• Vladimir Putin's 'time is running out' and his behaviour has changed, claims expert
  May 21 2022 - Mirror
• VLADIMIR PUTIN IS RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS TO AVOID DEFEAT IN UKRAINE
  May 22 2022 - Lucorg
• Russia ‘running out of ideas’ in 3-month-old war. Can Ukraine win?
  May 24 2022 - Global News
• The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Tanks For The War In Ukraine. These 60-Year-Old T-62s Are Proof.
  May 25 2022 - Forbes
• Vladimir Putin’s forces are running out of tanks
  May 27 2022 - Telegraph
• Exact date Putin's forces will run out of ammunition in Ukraine, according to expert
  May 31 2022 - Mirror
• Time is running out for Russia, German economy minister says
  Jun 2 2022 - Reuters

 

[RobStark]

A lot of people liked this Utube channel's summary of the 1st phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Here is their second video.

 

[petit_bateau]

fair sitrep

Institute for the Study of War

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces will “accelerate” the “special military operation” in Ukraine in a meeting with Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov on June 3, though Russian forces are unlikely to be able to do so. Kadyrov sai

www.understandingwar.org

 

[petit_bateau]

Swedish problems
Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey

Thread by @HKaaman on Thread Reader App

@HKaaman: 🧵Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey The Sweden Democrats (SD) just submitted a motion of no confidence against the Social Democrat (S) Min...…

threadreaderapp.com

Estonian problems
Estonian Prime Minister Kai Kallas dismissed 7 ministers of the coalition government, stating that they acted against the values of the country, and the government fell.

Coalition government dissolved in Estonia | Birinci NEWS

news.birincihaber.com.tr

 

[petit_bateau]

Izium weakness, Russian that is

Russian 35th combined-arms army (Izyum) is destroyed by its own command • WarTranslated

The Russian 35th army, transferred from Far East and stationed in Izyum, is successfully destroyed by its own army command as evidenced from this full of irony and snark report received and shared by a Russian livejournal blogger. It tells us about an acute lack of manpower, communications...

wartranslated.com

 

[Skipdd]

Swedish problems
Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey

Thread by @HKaaman on Thread Reader App

@HKaaman: 🧵Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey The Sweden Democrats (SD) just submitted a motion of no confidence against the Social Democrat (S) Min...…

threadreaderapp.com

Estonian problems
Estonian Prime Minister Kai Kallas dismissed 7 ministers of the coalition government, stating that they acted against the values of the country, and the government fell.

Coalition government dissolved in Estonia | Birinci NEWS

news.birincihaber.com.tr

Wow. I would be interested to understand how much of this ties to each country’s current position towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The first article makes clear the concerns of some of Sweden’s parliament members with Turkey negotiations. I had a difficult time seeing the threads in the Estonia situation. I would have to think Russia is aggressively trying to influence actions within each country, yes?


Edit - to clarify, based on @petit_bateau ’s reply - wrt the last sentence, I meant in response to these countries posture toward the Russian invasion of Ukraine, i.e., Russia is still using its considerable intelligence machine to sow discord wherever it can. I don’t know why I thought it would possibly diminish with how things have been playing out.. bears watching for the upcoming elections in the US.

 

[petit_bateau]

Wow. I would be interested to understand how much of this ties to each country’s current position towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The first article makes clear the concerns of some of Sweden’s parliament members with Turkey negotiations. I had a difficult time seeing the threads in the Estonia situation. I would have to think Russia is aggressively trying to influence actions within each country, yes?

I'm not sufficiently up to speed with the intricacies of politics in either country I'm afraid. Hopefully local TMC-members can add more insights.

(But yes, Russian influencers have been hard at work all over the west since Putin came to power.)

 

[petit_bateau]

120 x 155mm SPG for Ukraine, 50 from Belgium and 50 from Poland. Very quickly Ukraine is beginning to field a NATO army.

Belgian Company Sells M109A4BE Howitzers to Ukraine - Media | Defense Express

As media informs, FTS company from Belgian sells to Ukraine second-hand M109A4BE 155 mm howitzers

en.defence-ua.com

Ukraine Will Purchase More AHS Krab from Poland - Media | Defense Express

Ukraine will purchase about 60 more AHS Krab self-propelled artillery howitzers from Poland, in addition to the 18 already delivered to Ukraine

en.defence-ua.com

edit : and Russia's requipment is going backwards in time

Tanks Overgrown With Weeds Being Taken From Storage In russia: How Long It Takes to Restore Them | Defense Express

Taking particularly T-80 from storage is related with high losses of this type of tank

en.defence-ua.com

 

[DanCar]

For the nuke problem, suggest arming Ukraine with a variety of nukes. That will enforce Russia's mutual destruction, should they try to use nukes.

 

[petit_bateau]

This is veryyyy accurate, and apparently veerry quick

https://twitter.com/x/status/1533103853620576256

 

[heltok]

Swedish problems
Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey

Thread by @HKaaman on Thread Reader App

@HKaaman: 🧵Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey The Sweden Democrats (SD) just submitted a motion of no confidence against the Social Democrat (S) Min...…

threadreaderapp.com

This is unrelated to Nato, but they use Nato as an excuse. Morgan Johansson, a Swedish minister who has a terrible performances in his roles(for example in 8 years under him Sweden went from the least to the most deadly shootings in Europe per capita) finally said some obv lies and the opposition took the chance to try to vote him out. The Swedish prime minister Magdalena decided to defend him and said that if he is voted out then the she will also go, which would create a crisis. Basically blackmailing the opposition and claiming that they made her cause a crisis by their reckless actions. Most sane Swedes think believe that she is causing the crisis and wonder what dirty secrets Morgon must have to make him survive in the politics for so long.