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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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This is unrelated to Nato, but they use Nato as an excuse. Morgan Johansson, a Swedish minister who has a terrible performances in his roles(for example in 8 years under him Sweden went from the least to the most deadly shootings in Europe per capita) finally said some obv lies and the opposition took the chance to try to vote him out. The Swedish prime minister Magdalena decided to defend him and said that if he is voted out then the she will also go, which would create a crisis. Basically blackmailing the opposition and claiming that they made her cause a crisis by their reckless actions. Most sane Swedes think believe that she is causing the crisis and wonder what dirty secrets Morgon must have to make him survive in the politics for so long.
Thanks. Can it be resolved ? The last thing needed is a crisis in Sweden during the NATO accession talks ?
 
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Absolutely beautiful. The Russians are just giving away their locations with their artillery and taking heavy loses. They will adjust their tactics (or die) by shooting and scooting (one shot, then move), but that means they get far fewer shots on target (also a bonus).
 
I feel bad for the Russian population that has its fossil fuel oligarchs leading them to complete failure. I hope they sober up before they annihilate themselves.

 
This is unrelated to Nato, but they use Nato as an excuse. Morgan Johansson, a Swedish minister who has a terrible performances in his roles(for example in 8 years under him Sweden went from the least to the most deadly shootings in Europe per capita) /...
I doubt that this is even factually true. Yes. Sweden has the most deadly shootings in Europe per capita (I think). But this problem has been an escalating one for a very long time. Morgan Johansson has been minister for Justice for about 7 years and 8 months. But before him it was the political right who held that position for 8 years... This problem goes far further back in time than the last 7 years and 8 months...

With that said though – my personal view is that the current Social Democratic administration in Sweden is way too naive on crime. Crime is a huge problem and the political right has a much better set of policies to combat this problem at this time (and also since a while back).

.../ Morgan Johansson /.../ finally said some obv lies and the opposition took the chance to try to vote him out. The Swedish prime minister Magdalena decided to defend him and said that if he is voted out then the she will also go, which would create a crisis. Basically blackmailing the opposition and claiming that they made her cause a crisis by their reckless actions. Most sane Swedes think believe that she is causing the crisis and wonder what dirty secrets Morgon must have to make him survive in the politics for so long.
This strikes me as a VERY extremist view... Who's "blackmailing" who?... This situation is about 2 days old (!) No-one knows what "most sane Swedes" think about this situation.

The counter-argument here is that there will be an election in about 3 months(!) and motions of no confidence against ministers in Sweden is EXTREMELY RARE. You have to wonder about the motives for the political right in pulling this stunt 3 months before an election AND in the middle of a NATO-application...

EDIT: Also: What "obv lies" are you referring to here?
 
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Swedish problems
Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey

/...
The latest here is that Amineh Kakabaveh – who is on the record saying that the minister fo Justice in question is a personal friend of hers – will abstain from voting on this. If so, then this motion of no confidence will fail.

Problem solved.
 
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.../ Morgan Johansson / .../ finally said some obv lies and the opposition took the chance to try to vote him out. The Swedish prime minister Magdalena decided to defend him and said that if he is voted out then the she will also go, which would create a crisis. Basically blackmailing the opposition and claiming that they made her cause a crisis by their reckless actions. Most sane Swedes think believe that she is causing the crisis and wonder what dirty secrets Morgon must have to make him survive in the politics for so long.
What "obv lies" are you referring to here?
 
Swedish problems
Swedish government crisis as PM threatens to resign amidst controversial NATO negotiations with Turkey

Estonian problems
Estonian Prime Minister Kai Kallas dismissed 7 ministers of the coalition government, stating that they acted against the values of the country, and the government fell.

Not good. Some of it might be Russians stirring the pot, but some of it might just be normal politics. Hard to tell exactly. Russian agitation is still going on throughout the world, but it does seem weaker than it once did. Before the agitators were able to cast Russia as a peaceful country that was misunderstood, but now most of the developed world considers them to be the next incarnation of Nazi Germany.

Izium weakness, Russian that is


Interesting site. You posted earlier from ISW that the 35th Army was in bad shape.

The Canadian volunteer (not the most reliable source) reports that in the Donbas Russians were ordered to advance into heavy Ukrainian resistance, the troops refused, then the general decided to personally lead the advance and got killed along with anyone who went with him.

120 x 155mm SPG for Ukraine, 50 from Belgium and 50 from Poland. Very quickly Ukraine is beginning to field a NATO army.



edit : and Russia's requipment is going backwards in time


Quite a bit of the Russian equipment that has been in storage was stripped of anything that could be sold on the black market. The newer stuff was probably hit harder than the old stuff which is why they are employing T-62s in combat now. Those T-80s will probably need to be rebuilt before they will be ready for combat.

Good news about more NATO artillery making it to Ukraine.

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I saw this the other day. The Russians were probably not doing shoot and scoot for the benefit of the reporter doing his fluff piece on the mighty Russian army. The result was a destroyed TOS-1 and a reporter almost killed.

The reason self propelled artillery was invented was shoot and scoot.

Do you have a suggestion for what happens when Russia threatens and or uses Nukes?

Russia has been threatening to use nukes since the day the war turned against them. The nuclear armed powers in the west have probably told them that if they did use nukes. the west would respond in kind.

We also don't know how many functional warheads the Russians have. Nukes and their missiles take a lot of maintenance and the Russian military is so corrupt a lot of commanders will report maintenance as being done, but will just pocket the money instead. The US spends over $10 billion a year just on nuke maintenance and the entire Russian military budget is about $60 billion (before the war).

The smaller the warhead, the more maintenance it requires. The US has very few tactical warheads and those are "dial-a-yield" larger warheads that can be dialed down to a low yield if needed. It probably makes maintenance easier. How many tactical nuke warheads in the Russian arsenal would be anything more than dirty bombs at this point?

The military leadership probably knows or suspects this and knowing that trying to use one nuke might trigger a full launch from the US, they are probably reluctant to find out.

I'm having trouble finding reliable sources, but as a comparison (and if I understand correctly) it seems that the amount of gun violence per capita in the US is about 3 times higher compared to Sweden...

One party in Congress has prevented the FBI from keeping gun violence statistics, but they are kept by independent organizations. The US has the worst gun violence problem in the developed world. Politically it has become a minefield and is difficult to solve from that angle.
 
In most shootings in Sweden there is one or two victims. I can only think of two shootings in Sweden's history that caused four or more casualties. One were at at an upscale restaurant in Stockholm in 1994. Four died. The shooter was a criminal ethnic Swede. The other one also happened the same year. A second lieutenant in the Swedish Army – also an ethnic Swede – got into a psychotic state of mind by consuming a large amount of alcohol. He retrieved his personal Ak 5 assault rifle. He then murdered 7 people in a town that is called Falun. 5 of those killed were younger women.

Most shootings in recent years cause 1 or 2 injured or dead. They are almost exclusively carried out by young criminals who are targeting other young criminals. The shooters that get caught almost all have their ethnic background in Northern Africa or in the Middle-East. Unfortunately it does happen that innocent bystanders get injured or killed from stray bullets. It's not common, but it has happened.

And shootings are unfortunately way too common. I don't really know how common, but it feels like it's one every day or every other day...

The Stockholm mass shooting (In Swedish):

About the Falun mass shooting:
 
Back to the Ukrainian War topic...

The Russians are claiming they have 12 landing ships in the Black Sea right now and they are preparing for a landing at Odesa.
Ready for the task, 12 Russian ships of three fleets sailed from Sevastopol

Last reports I can see the Novocherkassk and Azoz were in port under going repair from the Ukrainian missile that sank their sister ship a few weeks ago. These reports also raise the question how Russia got six landing ships into the Black Sea with the Bosporus closed to military ship traffic.

I suspect a lot of media is going to be hair on fire about this, but I think it's just the Russians claiming they are far more capable than they really are. The Russians bluff a lot. Though it's a lot more difficult to get away with it now the world knows how poor their military is.
 
Back to the Ukrainian War topic...

The Russians are claiming they have 12 landing ships in the Black Sea right now and they are preparing for a landing at Odesa.
Ready for the task, 12 Russian ships of three fleets sailed from Sevastopol

Last reports I can see the Novocherkassk and Azoz were in port under going repair from the Ukrainian missile that sank their sister ship a few weeks ago. These reports also raise the question how Russia got six landing ships into the Black Sea with the Bosporus closed to military ship traffic.

I suspect a lot of media is going to be hair on fire about this, but I think it's just the Russians claiming they are far more capable than they really are. The Russians bluff a lot. Though it's a lot more difficult to get away with it now the world knows how poor their military is.

Russia should do it. It would be a freaking turkey shoot.