Russia/Ukraine conflict

[bkp_duke]

Just Russia ?!

Ahem, you did cut off my next sentence . . . "Just like Iraq and Kuwait did for the USA."

 

[X Fan]

Two more Generals plus an infamous Wagner mercenary KIA:

Notorious Putin soldier and two Russian generals reportedly killed

A notorious Russian mercenary, who is believed to have played a crucial role in the mass shooting of Ukrainian prisoners of war and execution of civilians in the Donbas region, has reportedly been killed.

www.skynews.com.au

 

[EVNow]

Ahem, you did cut off my next sentence . . . "Just like Iraq and Kuwait did for the USA."

Just Russia & USA ?

Its all about oil & gas for all countries.

As I used to say in 1990s, US wouldn't have invaded Iraq if Kuwait just grew carrots.

 

[bkp_duke]

Just Russia & USA ?

Its all about oil & gas for all countries.

As I used to say in 1990s, US wouldn't have invaded Iraq if Kuwait just grew carrots.

I wasn't exactly going to put together a long and exhaustive list of countries who's economies and politics are deeply intertwined with oil and gas. You are going on a tangent here.

 

[EVNow]

I wasn't exactly going to put together a long and exhaustive list of countries who's economies and politics are deeply intertwined with oil and gas. You are going on a tangent here.

No - I'm saying all these wars are all for oil & gas. Nothing new about Ukraine war.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

No - I'm saying all these wars are all for oil & gas. Nothing new about Ukraine war.

Let's add this to the massive list of human civilization changing things going on that no one seems to talk about.

1) Crude oil demand(consumption) has peaked.
2) On the other side of this, there's very little reason to invade another nation.

Kind of a big deal. Maybe let's hurry up and get this transition moving.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Ukraine is very clearly united

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532625212541390849

Do you think this poll includes people in Crimea or the eastern part of the "independent republics"? It's great the rest of the country is united, but IMHO they're going to have issues pushing beyond the 2014 lines. Of course they're a long way from even reaching the 2014 lines, and haven't shown much ability to "push" at all so far.

 

[jerry33]

Do you think this poll includes people in Crimea or the eastern part of the "independent republics"? It's great the rest of the country is united, but IMHO they're going to have issues pushing beyond the 2014 lines. Of course they're a long way from even reaching the 2014 lines, and haven't shown much ability to "push" at all so far.

The trick is to push when it won't cause a ton of casualties. Better to wear down the opponent and push at a time when there will be little resistance.

 

[ZsoZso]

Do you think this poll includes people in Crimea or the eastern part of the "independent republics"? It's great the rest of the country is united, but IMHO they're going to have issues pushing beyond the 2014 lines. Of course they're a long way from even reaching the 2014 lines, and haven't shown much ability to "push" at all so far.

Of course, Russia has been busy removing people loyal to Ukraine from the area and planting Russia-sympathizers there instead in the past 8 years.
If Ukraine ever takes back those territorries, then they will be faced with the unpleasant situation where they either have to reverse that population-transfer (which would be called out as "nazi" action by the Russians again), or they have to deal with insurgency -- also not a pretty situation.

 

[bkp_duke]

Of course, Russia has been busy removing people loyal to Ukraine from the area and planting Russia-sympathizers there instead in the past 8 years.
If Ukraine ever takes back those territorries, then they will be faced with the unpleasant situation where they either have to reverse that population-transfer (which would be called out as "nazi" action by the Russians again), or they have to deal with insurgency -- also not a pretty situation.

With luck, all those sympathizers joined the Russian forces and are being put through the meat grinder right now. Problem solved.

 

[wdolson]

Of course, Russia has been busy removing people loyal to Ukraine from the area and planting Russia-sympathizers there instead in the past 8 years.
If Ukraine ever takes back those territorries, then they will be faced with the unpleasant situation where they either have to reverse that population-transfer (which would be called out as "nazi" action by the Russians again), or they have to deal with insurgency -- also not a pretty situation.

Ukraine had a pro-Russian faction from the beginning and it was strongest in Crimea and the Donbas. The Russian occupation of those areas went OK, because things were OK for people there from 2014 to 2022. There was a low intensity war on the border of the seized region in Donbas, but it wasn't a huge thing.

When Russia invaded in February, opinions about Russia in all of Ukraine flipped very strongly anti-Russian and will likely stay that way for the next century if not forever. The people in the long occupied territories in Donbas are likely very anti-Russian now too. From the moment the war started going against Russia, the Russians started conscripting every male over about age 14 to fight against Ukraine.

Trent Telenko recently had a couple of essays about how the bulk of casualties for Russia are almost certainly infantry. He pointed out that consistently infantry take the highest casualties in war (usually around 80% of them) and the Russians only had between 19,000 and 38,000 infantry at the start of the war. They have completely mobilized all the men capable of holding a rifle in Donbas and those poor sots have been thrown into the meat grinder. They have probably been quite a few of the 31,000 dead and ~60,000 seriously wounded in this war.

They didn't have a large population to begin with. The areas of Donbas Russia controlled before the war were not that densely populated.

There are stories of these conscripts being given WW II bolt action rifles and WW II helmets and not much else. They are up against well trained, and equipped Ukrainians. There may be more Donbas conscripts than Ukrainian troops in the area, but the Donbas troops are virtually worthless for anything more than guard duty.

Trent Telenko also has made the point that the Ukrainians have been performing a shaping operation in the Donbas. They have been drawing the Russians into one trap after another. They pull back to get the Russians into a vulnerable position, then take them out. It's a way of whittling down the Russian strength to a point where they will be less able to defend their territory when the Ukrainians go in to take it back.

If the Ukrainians take back Donbas, I expect the areas that have been controlled by the Russians for six years will acquiesce. The Russians may send in some agitators, though Russia may have too many problems at home at that point. The bulk of any population want peace. If the Ukrainians bring peace, most people will go along with it.

The Ukrainians taking Crimea would be a bit more difficult. Invading Crimea would be a problem as there is a narrow isthmus that is easily defended and the place has been at peace for most of the last 6 years. Russian propaganda has probably sunk in more there than in Donbas.

 

[madodel]

Russia Seeks Buyers for Plundered Ukraine Grain, U.S. Warns

In mid-May, the United States sent an alert to 14 countries, mostly in Africa, that Russian cargo vessels were leaving ports near Ukraine laden with what a State Department cable described as “stolen Ukrainian grain.” The cable identified by name three Russian cargo vessels it said were suspected of transporting it.​

 

[petit_bateau]

More stuff for Ukraine

Spain approves delivery to Ukraine of 40 Leopard 2A4 tanks and Aspide missile systems | Defense News June 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year

Spain approves the delivery to Ukraine of 40 Leopard 2A4 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) and Aspide air defense missile systems.

www.armyrecognition.com

detail re this

Leopard II main battle tank :: by Sakhal at Military History

The article Leopard II main battle tank is authored by Sakhal at Military History website

sakhalianet.x10.mx

 

[petit_bateau]

This seems about right

Portrait of the invader: Understanding the Russian soldier

One hundred days of all-out war has been plenty of time to get acquainted with the Russian troops. Their lackluster combat performance, artillery barrages against cities, treatment of civilians, intercepted messages home, and interviews with dozens of civilians around Ukraine allow one to put...

kyivindependent.com

 

[petit_bateau]

And another 22 x 155mm SPG from Norway.

That's to add to the 60x from Poland and wasn't it another 60x from Czech ?

Norway has donated M109 to Ukraine

Norway has donated 22 M109 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers. The donation also includes gear, spare parts and ammunition.

www.regjeringen.no

 

[petit_bateau]

there's a reason Turkey Erdogan

Turkey's lira, bonds extend decline on inflation, rate cut concerns

Turkey's lira tumbled more than 2% against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday and its bonds dropped sharply as worries grew over a surge in inflation and depleted official reserves, fuelled by President Tayyip Erdogan's pledge this week to continue cutting interest rates.

www.reuters.com

is trying to skim off some grain from Ukraine (Turkey to get 25% off Ukrainian grain)

Russia's Lavrov in Turkey to discuss plan to ship Ukrainian grain

The talks scheduled for Wednesday aim to unlock an estimated 22 million tons of grains sitting in silos in Ukraine.

www.npr.org

and already, er 'facilitating' theft

Russia-Ukraine: Ambassador accuses Moscow of exporting 'stolen' grain to Turkey

Vasyl Bodnar said grain was being shipped out of Crimea and Kyiv was working with Ankara and Interpol to find the culprits

www.middleeasteye.net

 

[petit_bateau]

worth reading

Yulia Tymoshenko on war in Ukraine: ‘It’s a chance for the free world to kill this evil’

Exclusive: Former PM discusses ‘cold, cruel’ Vladimir Putin and the west’s response to the Russian invasion

www.theguardian.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

When Russia invaded in February, opinions about Russia in all of Ukraine flipped very strongly anti-Russian and will likely stay that way for the next century if not forever. The people in the long occupied territories in Donbas are likely very anti-Russian now too.

I see no evidence of any "flipping" in Crimea or the east. I haven't even seen Ukrainian propaganda make this claim. The link I posted last week quoted an officer on the eastern front who said 30% were pro-Russia, 30% pro-Ukraine and 40% didn't care. That was an area not previously controlled by Russia and currently under attack. I also mentioned the CNN interview with an older couple whose house was destroyed by Russian shelling -- they blamed Biden.

From the moment the war started going against Russia, the Russians started conscripting every male over about age 14 to fight against Ukraine.

Again, I've seen no evidence of 15 year olds fighting for Russia.

They didn't have a large population to begin with. The areas of Donbas Russia controlled before the war were not that densely populated.

Russia has 4x the population of Ukraine. And guess which country saw a faster population decline than Russia over the past decade or so? Yep. And that was before 7 million Ukrainians fled and millions more got caught in areas now controlled by Russia.

Ukraine has a motivation advantage, but they are at a huge numerical disadvantage. And numbers rule in a war of attrition.

Trent Telenko also has made the point that the Ukrainians have been performing a shaping operation in the Donbas.

Sounds like a rationalization. Ukraine is losing ground in Donbas. It's very hard to regain lost ground, no matter how cleverly you retreat.

If the Ukrainians take back Donbas, I expect the areas that have been controlled by the Russians for six years will acquiesce.

Take back? They are a very long way from that. You know that propaganda we hear about Ukraine taking back land in the south? "Major counteroffensives" and so forth? CNN sent a reporter in who found a stalemate. Both sides are dug into trenches with very little movement either direction. And that's a location the military allowed them to see. Ukraine will need much more offensive weaponry to push Russia back. They'll probably need many more well trained troops, as well.

https://gcdn.2mdn.net/videoplayback/id/4e57a61faaebd4d4/itag/15/source/web_video_ads/ctier/L/acao/yes/ip/0.0.0.0/ipbits/0/expire/3796836923/sparams/id,itag,source,ctier,acao,ip,ipbits,expire/signature/7458DDF23461A1EACAEAF4C6D4583625528F7FD4.427A416E4E1B6D70A8763DFDE93AC6381CBB2139/key/ck2/file/file.mp4

 

[RobStark]

Russia has 4x the population of Ukraine. And guess which country saw a faster population decline than Russia over the past decade or so? Yep. And that was before 7 million Ukrainians fled and millions more got caught in areas now controlled by Russia.

Ukraine has a motivation advantage, but they are at a huge numerical disadvantage. And numbers rule in a war of attrition.

Russia has a 3.3x numerical advantage. A smaller percentage of the Ukrainians fleeing till the war is over are men of fighting age than population as a whole.

Ukraine enacted a conscription draft 1st day of Russian invasion. The Kremlin is afraid of enacting a draft.

Motivation affects how many bodies you can put in the field. Therefore motivation also counts in a war of attrition.

 

[iPlug]

Ukraine can gain back much territory but this would likely require a long game of projecting endless civilian/military economic support and continued escalation and sustaining of advanced weapons/training/supply/logistics.

The West easily has the long term economic and technology advantage over Russia here. The big question is if the West maintains the will and solidarity to endure the relatively minor pains we have now for much larger long term dividends.