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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Russia continues to make slow and steady progress in the Donbas, if you have been following the maps there the past 2 weeks. The limited reading I have done on Twitter, Youtube updates, etc. is indicating the Ukranians might be running low on older Soviet ammo for their weapons.

The West also appears to be slow-rolling their deliveries of gear.

Not happy about this. Anyone heard anything further (or different)?
 
Russia continues to make slow and steady progress in the Donbas, if you have been following the maps there the past 2 weeks. The limited reading I have done on Twitter, Youtube updates, etc. is indicating the Ukranians might be running low on older Soviet ammo for their weapons.

The West also appears to be slow-rolling their deliveries of gear.

Not happy about this. Anyone heard anything further (or different)?

The Ukrainians do need to be trained on the new systems. That is going on now.

The problem is the new artillery wasn't green lit until Ukraine was too near a shortage of Russian/Soviet ammunition. Things should improve once the Ukrainians get trained in the new equipment. There have been a fair number of 155mm guns transferred or promised already.

The small number of MRLS is disturbing and we should be transferring more. The US State Department did say the initial delivery would be 4 MRLS, that implies there will be more.
 
Russia continues to make slow and steady progress in the Donbas, if you have been following the maps there the past 2 weeks. The limited reading I have done on Twitter, Youtube updates, etc. is indicating the Ukranians might be running low on older Soviet ammo for their weapons.

The West also appears to be slow-rolling their deliveries of gear.

Not happy about this. Anyone heard anything further (or different)?
Military Summary seems to be the most detailed:
 
I read yesterday that quite a few Ukrainians who had dual citizenship have renounced their Russian citizenship. The war is de-Russifying Ukraine.

This is a weird story I first saw last night. It could just be Putin being paranoid for paranoia's sake, but it is weird
paris match can't be trusted

Sarkozy-Libyan funding case: the bizarre inside story of attempted manipulation
 
Curious about what changed on the Russian side to facilitate this and what help could be provided to Ukraine to counter it.

The article he links gives a good overview. Early in the war Russia didn't use EW assets effectively, or in some cases at all. It mostly mirrors their early logistics and tactical failures. They were overconfident, the equipment/training wasn't as advertised and theyspread themselves way too thin. Now operators have some "on the job training" and the generals have concentrated forces (including EW) to better effect.

As far as countering Ukraine has pretty good EW people now (unlike in 2014). But they need more western equipment (common theme).
 
Curious about what changed on the Russian side to facilitate this and what help could be provided to Ukraine to counter it.

My guess is a large percentage of the incompetent and dumb Russian soldiers have bee killed. What is left is the more competent and smarter Russian soldiers.

Like Doggydog said, Ukraine needs more EW equipment. And artillery, armour, drones etc.
 
Curious about what changed on the Russian side to facilitate this and what help could be provided to Ukraine to counter it.


ARM (anti-radiation missiles). Most are air launched and the Ukrainian aircraft can't carry NATO missiles, but the Exocet has an ARM function and they are mounted on ships. The Italian Otomat anti ship missile also can be used for ARM. Those are the only western ARM surface to surface systems I've come across.

The Russians have the P-700 and the P-500 systems, but the Ukrainians don't have those.

The Switchblade 600 can be used in the ARM mode. That is a good mission for them. They can be sent up to loiter over the battlefield until something turns on, then it goes in for the kill.

It appears the USAF version of the Switchblade called the Phoenix Ghost is more designed for the ARM mission than the Switchblade. This is a good article on what the US is doing for loitering munitions for Ukraine:
Phoenix Ghost, Switchblade And More: Why The U.S. Air Force Is Supplying Ukraine’s New Loitering Munitions (UPDATE: Ukraine Now Using Polish Warmate Loitering Munitions)

The Ukrainians were working with a Polish supplier to make a loitering munition called the Warmate before the war, but it ran into problems. Apparently at least a few have been delivered to Ukraine and have been used.

My guess is a large percentage of the incompetent and dumb Russian soldiers have bee killed. What is left is the more competent and smarter Russian soldiers.

Like Doggydog said, Ukraine needs more EW equipment. And artillery, armour, drones etc.

The smart Russians who are left are now refusing to fight. Casualties among Russia's most elite troops were staggeringly high in the first days of the war. The Naval Infantry and Airborne troops were the first ones in and got cut down in large numbers.

The Russians are trying to replace their losses with anybody they can, which is people press ganged into service with no training from the occupied parts of Donbas and mercenaries from Syria and other places. The Donbas troops are even less motivated than Russian conscripts and mercenaries will only fight if there is a fair chance of survival. Losses get too high and mercenaries quit. There are stories even the Russian mercenaries from the Wagnar Group have refused to fight.
 
The smart Russians who are left are now refusing to fight. Casualties among Russia's most elite troops were staggeringly high in the first days of the war. The Naval Infantry and Airborne troops were the first ones in and got cut down in large numbers.

The Russians are trying to replace their losses with anybody they can, which is people press ganged into service with no training from the occupied parts of Donbas and mercenaries from Syria and other places. The Donbas troops are even less motivated than Russian conscripts and mercenaries will only fight if there is a fair chance of survival. Losses get too high and mercenaries quit. There are stories even the Russian mercenaries from the Wagnar Group have refused to fight.

This is the analysis if you filter out all the information you don't want to hear.

The Russians are making advances in the East and the South.

The Ukrainians say they are running out of ammunition and desperately need heavy weapons.

You keep saying what is left are unmotivated idiots and what is left of the Russia Army is going to collapse. And it keeps not happening.
 
This is the analysis if you filter out all the information you don't want to hear.

The Russians are making advances in the East and the South.

The Ukrainians say they are running out of ammunition and desperately need heavy weapons.

You keep saying what is left are unmotivated idiots and what is left of the Russia Army is going to collapse. And it keeps not happening.
To be fair though and looking back the last weeks, aren't the Russians mostly loosing in the south? Otherwise this seems accurate. The Russians seem to have much more regular artillery and dumb rocket artillery. For each artillery round Ukraine fires in the east and the north – the Russians fires many more. I've heard claims that the Russians fires upp to 20 times more artillery rounds compared to what Ukraine does. That's the picture this guy paints:


Ukraine needs that US rocket artillery system! They also need a lot more misc. heavy weapons – and they need it now!
 

Ukraine Bits: No Ammo, More Casualties, Thin Lines, Propaganda And Passing The Buck​

The real state of the war in Ukraine, which I had described some two months ago, has now reached the main stream media. The Zelensky regime in Ukraine is using it to beg the 'west' for more guns and ammunition.

From the last link:

[T]he odds against the Ukrainians are starting to look overwhelming, said Danylyuk, the government adviser.
“The Russians are using long-range artillery against us, often without any response, because we don’t have the means,” he said. “They can attack from dozens of kilometers away and we can’t fire back. We know all the coordinates for all their important targets, but we don’t have the means to attack.”
Ukraine has now almost completely run out of ammunition for the Soviet-era weapons systems that were the mainstay of its arsenal, and the Eastern European countries that maintained the same systems have run out of surplus supplies to donate, Danylyuk said. Ukraine urgently needs to shift to longer-range and more sophisticated Western systems, but those have only recently been committed, and in insufficient quantities to match Russia’s immense firepower, he said.
Russia is firing as many as 50,000 artillery rounds a day into Ukrainian positions, and the Ukrainians can only hit back with around 5,000 to 6,000 rounds a day, he said. The United States has committed to deliver 220,000 rounds of ammunition — enough to match Russian firepower for around four days.
The Independent claims to have seen an intelligence report that showed even worse numbers:
 
This is the analysis if you filter out all the information you don't want to hear.

The Russians are making advances in the East and the South.

The Ukrainians say they are running out of ammunition and desperately need heavy weapons.

You keep saying what is left are unmotivated idiots and what is left of the Russia Army is going to collapse. And it keeps not happening.

The Russians are throwing everything including the kitchen sink into Donbas and they are making glacial progress, if any. The Russians committed around 35 BTGs to the Donbas operation. That's about 1/3 of their remaining force before they started stripping their training units to raise new units.

The Ukrainians are making slow progress towards Kherson in the south. There is no evidence the Russians have done any offensive moves in the south in several weeks.

Institute for the Study of War

I did comment a week or so back that the Russians there are stories the Russians are stripping their training units for front line troops. This will keep them in the field a little longer, but the trade off is they are destroying their ability to train more troops. Long term it will be a disaster.
 
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'nuff said

Exactly. The largest owner of The Independent is Evgeny Lebedev. He owns 41% of the paper. He is the son of oligarch and former KGB officer Alexander Lebedev. According to Wikipedia Alexander Lebedev is on Canada's sanctions list since this spring. The father – Alexander Lebedev – is also a part-owner of The Independent.

Source (in Swedish):
 
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