Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwTslaGrl]

^Russia wants to increase imports from 3rd party countries of tech, food, cars, car parts etc. (getting around sanctions?)

Russia eager to see trade top $10bn with Thailand

Russia is adamant about its push for bilateral trade with Thailand reaching US$10 billion (330 billion baht) a year after showing strong interest in investing in the kingdom, says Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit.

www.bangkokpost.com

 

[petit_bateau]

I think that frigate is likely out of the war for a while. If it needs a tow, something happened to the propulsion.

It apears to have received some near misses with a lot of fragmentation damage evident on the port side superstructure. The top mainmast phased area radar is missing. Whether it has been removed for repairs, removed to strip for parts, is unclear. (edit: it may have been removed for river transport to go under low bridges). I think the main gun barrel (fwd) may have been removed, but the pixellation makes it hard to be sure. Aft the machinery spaces appear to have suffered an internal fire or something - that darkening of the hull is not normal (edit : or is it, I am not sure). My guess is it is under tow fwd and aft because it is a deadship, i.e. unpowered. A lot of smaller external stuff has simply gone, perhaps stripped for use on the other vessels of this class.

This appears to have been on the receiving end of good shooting by unguided Grad type MLRS rockets. Looking to the future the combination of longer range NATO guided MLRS (HIMARS) and Harpoon/Neptune may make the northern seas inaccessible for Russian vessels. That in turn could allow Ukraine to retake Snake Island under the cover of their own land-based artillery/missiles. Then Ukraine uses the island to base AShM and SAM systems and push the Russians even further away (both sea and air), thereby opening a sea-corridor to Romanian waters.

Bit by bit.

 

[wdolson]

For economic and resource exploitation, acting like the worst of the colonial era empires.

Otherwise I agree with your post.

IMO, the US's track record as a world power is very checkered, but I think it's way better than any of the colonial era empires. Just about all of them did things worse than what Russia is doing today (at least within their technological capabilities). The US has mostly ruled the world indirectly through economics and sometimes military threat rather than directly as the colonial powers did.

I prefer the world powers to be gentle giants who push to keep smaller powers from messing with their neighbors and strive for world harmony. The US has fallen short in that regard many times, though it has actually had that concept and tried to adhere to it at least some of the time. The concept didn't really exist until after WW I.

But that's a tangential debate that could go on for days and probably more than most people want to see here.

It apears to have received some near misses with a lot of fragmentation damage evident on the port side superstructure. The top mainmast phased area radar is missing. Whether it has been removed for repairs, removed to strip for parts, is unclear. (edit: it may have been removed for river transport to go under low bridges). I think the main gun barrel (fwd) may have been removed, but the pixellation makes it hard to be sure. Aft the machinery spaces appear to have suffered an internal fire or something - that darkening of the hull is not normal (edit : or is it, I am not sure). My guess is it is under tow fwd and aft because it is a deadship, i.e. unpowered. A lot of smaller external stuff has simply gone, perhaps stripped for use on the other vessels of this class.

According to Wikipedia it's actually a Corvette. It has 8 cruise missile tubes and has probably been responsible for launching cruise missiles at Ukraine.
Buyan-class corvette - Wikipedia

An underwater near miss might have damaged the rudder and or screws to such a point they are unusable. I'm not an expert on towing ships, but I suspect the push-pull arrangement might be because the rudder is jammed. The ship at the rear is needed to keep the ship on course.

Ships' rudders are very vulnerable to near misses exploding under the stern. It's what doomed the Akagi and almost doomed the Enterprise a few months later.

The barbell for the 100mm gun appears to still be there. It blends into the starboard railing in the more close up picture I could find. Those shrapnel holes appear to be patched with either Bondo (used as a cheap way to fill body damage on cars in the US, a Bondo-sled is a car with many Bondo patches) or the patches covered over with red primer.

Those corvettes are able to travel Russia's river system. Transferring some to the Black Sea has probably allowed them to get some more ships into the fight.

This appears to have been on the receiving end of good shooting by unguided Grad type MLRS rockets. Looking to the future the combination of longer range NATO guided MLRS (HIMARS) and Harpoon/Neptune may make the northern seas inaccessible for Russian vessels. That in turn could allow Ukraine to retake Snake Island under the cover of their own land-based artillery/missiles. Then Ukraine uses the island to base AShM and SAM systems and push the Russians even further away (both sea and air), thereby opening a sea-corridor to Romanian waters.

Bit by bit.

The reconquest could take a while.

 

[petit_bateau]

A standard Grad type MLRS unguided round would likely explode on or above the water surface depending on fusing, not underwater. This is not obviously underwater damage, at least I don't see evidence for that in the photo. It is - I think - simply a deadship move. With that you need a tug at the front and back as otherwise you lose control of the tow. Plus on riverine traffic it is often easier to push than pull. Indeed these particular ships are sized to use the internal waterways. The video of the engagement back in March was not at all conclusive but did seem to indicate some sort of related (?secondary?) detonation, hard to tell what though. One way or another it is looking a bit worse for wear.

I think, whisper it quietly, the tide is turning in Ukraine. Apart from continued naval successes, there are also indications that Ukraine are making advances north of Kharkiv, near Izium, and on the Kherson-Nova Khakova fronts, whilst still holding in Severodonetsk. And that is only using the NATO 155mm, before the HIMARs reach the front line. And the air war seems stable. But if Ukraine can push past Kherson then the three S400 batteries the Russians have in Crimea and all the naval and aviation basing, all start to come into range. At that point Russian defences could start to unravel quickly, although of course that would also bring the risk of (further threats of) Russian nuclear escalation. But Ukraine needs to cling on in the centre and keep the Russians pinned there for that srategy to have the time to work. So ... also expect Russia to call for a humanitarian ceasefire soonish.

Edit : ooops, here is the map with latest Ukraine known advance

 

[petit_bateau]

this should not be silent, and is of course related to Russian activities in many other places ----- UK, USA, France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Hungary .....

" the near total silence around this case has been one of its most extraordinary aspects. One month before Russia invaded Ukraine, as part of the legal action, documents disclosed by both me and Banks provided new insight about the relationship between the biggest funder of the Brexit campaign and the Kremlin in a multimillion pound trial against a journalist that 19 press freedom organisations said they believed was an abuse of law. Much of this went wholly unreported. Save for the Guardian, not a single mainstream news outlet covered any of it."

" if I hadn’t done so, some key facts about the political moment that changed our country forever – Brexit – could have been rewritten.The ability to report on the Kremlin’s involvement with leading individuals in the Brexit campaign would have been stifled forever. The record could have been changed."

"Whatever happens next, we have these now. We held the line. There were at least four meetings between the main funder of the Brexit campaign and the Russian government. There are reasonable grounds to believe there were many more. Fact."

Arron Banks almost crushed me in court. Instead, my quest for the facts was vindicated | Carole Cadwalladr

The libel claim brought by the Brexit campaigner took its toll. But the judgment offered personal relief and hope for public interest journalism

www.theguardian.com

The judgement itself is here

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Banks-v-Cadwalladr-130622-Judgment.pdf

 

[wdolson]

this should not be silent, and is of course related to Russian activities in many other places ----- UK, USA, France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Hungary .....

" the near total silence around this case has been one of its most extraordinary aspects. One month before Russia invaded Ukraine, as part of the legal action, documents disclosed by both me and Banks provided new insight about the relationship between the biggest funder of the Brexit campaign and the Kremlin in a multimillion pound trial against a journalist that 19 press freedom organisations said they believed was an abuse of law. Much of this went wholly unreported. Save for the Guardian, not a single mainstream news outlet covered any of it."

" if I hadn’t done so, some key facts about the political moment that changed our country forever – Brexit – could have been rewritten.The ability to report on the Kremlin’s involvement with leading individuals in the Brexit campaign would have been stifled forever. The record could have been changed."

"Whatever happens next, we have these now. We held the line. There were at least four meetings between the main funder of the Brexit campaign and the Russian government. There are reasonable grounds to believe there were many more. Fact."

Arron Banks almost crushed me in court. Instead, my quest for the facts was vindicated | Carole Cadwalladr

The libel claim brought by the Brexit campaigner took its toll. But the judgment offered personal relief and hope for public interest journalism

www.theguardian.com

The judgement itself is here

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Banks-v-Cadwalladr-130622-Judgment.pdf

I recall hearing about the trial starting on one of the topical comedy programs I follow. It might have been Have I Got News For You? I'm glad to hear she won.

Russian interference in foreign politics seems to have dropped off to some degree since the war began. With so many IT people leaving the country they may have lost some key people needed to keep the programs going and/or they were diverted to other disinformation jobs related to the war.

The west needs to come to a reckoning about how much damage the Russians did to western democracies and we need to both educate our populations about how they were manipulated as well as figure out the best ways to deal with these problems. Even if Russia never is able to do this again because their IT infrastructure collapses due to lack of talent, some other bad actor could step into their shoes and run the same op.

A well educated population is well insulated from trolling. Back in the late 90s and early naughts I was running a listserv and we would have trolls come along and try to cause trouble from time to time. I went on a campaign to teach people what to look for and how to confront a troll without giving them what they want. Expose their game and virtually all trolls will slink off and go somewhere else.

This is trolling with national actors, which is a different game, but exposing them and educating people helps blunt their effectiveness.

 

[RobStark]

 

[petit_bateau]

Oh, what a surprise, Putin has become wealthy

Russian emails appear to show ‘network’ holding $4.5bn assets linked to Putin

Exclusive: Questions over palaces, vineyards and yachts run by entities that appear to be part of a cooperative

www.theguardian.com

 

[traxila]

Oh, what a surprise, Putin has become wealthy

Russian emails appear to show ‘network’ holding $4.5bn assets linked to Putin

Exclusive: Questions over palaces, vineyards and yachts run by entities that appear to be part of a cooperative

www.theguardian.com

He hasn’t just become wealthy. Good chance he was the world’s first trillionaire.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Putin is almost certainly the world's wealthiest human, by a long shot. MBS might have had a chance, but he's now a distant 2nd.

 

[wdolson]

He hasn’t just become wealthy. Good chance he was the world’s first trillionaire.

I think the definition is murky. Putin controls all the oligarchs and in turn controls all their money and he controls the state like he owns it, but it isn't exactly the same thing as the wealth a successful business executive would have.

When one person has centralized control over a large nation-state, their personal wealth is kind of moot. They are, to some extent, the state and vice versa.

Putin has never struck me as anyone all that obsessed about personal wealth, he's more interested in power. As for inheritable wealth, his children will probably be pretty well off when he dies, but they are not going to be dividing up a trillion dollar pot.

 

[iPlug]

Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests…​

​

…"If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests," it said…​

​

…Lithuania said it was merely implementing EU sanctions, part of a swathe of measures intended to punish President Vladimir Putin for the invasion of Ukraine…​

Russia warns NATO-member Lithuania over Kaliningrad transit

 

[bkp_duke]

Russia warned NATO member Lithuania on Monday that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests…​

​

…"If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests," it said…​

​

…Lithuania said it was merely implementing EU sanctions, part of a swathe of measures intended to punish President Vladimir Putin for the invasion of Ukraine…​

Russia warns NATO-member Lithuania over Kaliningrad transit

Yeah, that's a hollow threat that won't end well for Russia.

"Piss off, go by water, we don't have to allow you transit through our country."

 

[iPlug]

Lithuania is more than happy to enforce given Russia’s blockade in the Black Sea and knowing Russia will do nothing of consequence given Lithuania being a NATO member.

 

[RobStark]

Lithuania must have run this by the White House/NATO headquarters.

 

[madodel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538977193681985539

Anyone seen any reports that Russia is getting ready to do a sea invasion of Odessa? Google shows nothing. Hopefully all the new missile batteries are loaded and ready. Could be a turkey shoot if true.

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538977193681985539

Anyone seen any reports that Russia is getting ready to do a sea invasion of Odessa? Google shows nothing. Hopefully all the new missile batteries are loaded and ready. Could be a turkey shoot if true.

That would be the stupidest possible move they could make . . . but that would be in line with their existing brute-force but bone-headed tactics.

Harpoon missiles reportedly delivered to Odessa. I can't imagine the setup time is that long . . . and with a 200km range . . . yeah, have fun Russia.

https://inf.news/ne/military/995145a5dd8f1d97652bad2aa86f15d5.html

Previous usage of Harpoon missiles against Snake Island.

Ukraine Blasts Russian Tug Near Snake Island With Land-Based Harpoon Missiles

Video shows yet another Russian ship coming under attack while transiting toward Snake Island, an outpost infamously captured by the Russian Navy early in the war. Two sea-skimming missiles can be seen slamming into the vessel, causing it to erupt in a fireball.

www.forbes.com

 

[wdolson]

Yeah, that's a hollow threat that won't end well for Russia.

"Piss off, go by water, we don't have to allow you transit through our country."

Russia said today they will supply Kalingrad by sea until they figure out what to do.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538977193681985539

Anyone seen any reports that Russia is getting ready to do a sea invasion of Odessa? Google shows nothing. Hopefully all the new missile batteries are loaded and ready. Could be a turkey shoot if true.

If it's true (it only appears to be one guy so far) it's almost certainly a resupply mission to Snake Island. Te Black Sea fleet was not capable of an amphibious landing at Odesa on day 1 of the war, they definitely aren't capable of it now. The fleet is weaker and Ukraine is more ready for them than they were then.

Russia doesn't have the ability to hold Kherson much longer, they definitely don't have the logistical support to supply an invasion force.

 

[bkp_duke]

If it's true (it only appears to be one guy so far) it's almost certainly a resupply mission to Snake Island. Te Black Sea fleet was not capable of an amphibious landing at Odesa on day 1 of the war, they definitely aren't capable of it now. The fleet is weaker and Ukraine is more ready for them than they were then.

Russia doesn't have the ability to hold Kherson much longer, they definitely don't have the logistical support to supply an invasion force.

The problem is Ukraine doesn't have the forces yet to take Kherson, not without more armor/missiles. They have the manpower, but we both know you need superior numbers of both men and artillery/missiles of around 3:1 (preferably more) for a successful ground assault. You can lower that number if you can soften the target with airpower, but Ukraine doesn't have that either.

Until more armor shows up for Ukraine, we are in stalemate territory. There will be gains on both sides, but it will be determined by both terrain and where each decides to focus their forces.

 

[wdolson]

The problem is Ukraine doesn't have the forces yet to take Kherson, not without more armor/missiles. They have the manpower, but we both know you need superior numbers of both men and artillery/missiles of around 3:1 (preferably more) for a successful ground assault. You can lower that number if you can soften the target with airpower, but Ukraine doesn't have that either.

Until more armor shows up for Ukraine, we are in stalemate territory. There will be gains on both sides, but it will be determined by both terrain and where each decides to focus their forces.

The NATO artillery will help even the odds, but yes, Ukraine needs more assault equipment before they can make major gains. Though the momentum in the south right now is slightly on Ukraine's side. The Russians haven't even tried to take any territory there in a while.

I did a bit more searching on the naval story. This seems more likely

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538963348116721664

No landing ships, just the missile ships are out to "punish" Ukraine. Let's hope some Harpoons find their marks.