Russia/Ukraine conflict

[bkp_duke]

The NATO artillery will help even the odds, but yes, Ukraine needs more assault equipment before they can make major gains. Though the momentum in the south right now is slightly on Ukraine's side. The Russians haven't even tried to take any territory there in a while.

I did a bit more searching on the naval story. This seems more likely

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538963348116721664

No landing ships, just the missile ships are out to "punish" Ukraine. Let's hope some Harpoons find their marks.

I can't believe Russia would be that stupid. It's . . . just a rash emotional decision, not a tactical one.

If this is true, then there are high odds those ships are going to go the way of the Moskva. That's crazy stupid, given that Turkey has closed the Turkish straits and Russia cannot reinforce those vessels.

 

[EVCollies]

What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?​

WaPo analysis by Eric Schlosser, outlines US options for Putin's use of nuclear weapons.

 

[wdolson]

Mark Hertling's latest analysis
Thread by @MarkHertling on Thread Reader App

Russia is hurting, but Ukraine needs the supply lines from the west to keep pumping in supplies.

 

[petit_bateau]

This is a valid problematic development :

"A dangerous situation has evolved south of Lysychansk. Russian forces captured Toshkivka and have advanced towards the road connecting Zolote and Lysychansk. Ukrainian troops stationed at Zolote are at danger to be encircled and Ukrainian command most likely now considers withdrawing its forces from the area."

Invasion Day 117 – Summary

The summary of the 117th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 20th June 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: A dangerous situation has evolved south of Lysychansk.

militaryland.net

 

[Tiger]

Convoluted coup plots in Russia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1538768282785697792

 

[nativewolf]

That coup plot stuff seems just a bit bizarre, even for russia

 

[petit_bateau]

Lithuania must have run this by the White House/NATO headquarters.

And extremely thoroughly via the EU as it is EU sanctions law that Lithuania is applying.

 

[petit_bateau]

Finally ! Now what about the Spanish tanks that Germany is blocking. In the meantime let's wish Ukraine success with recovering their territory.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539225560588734466

 

[petit_bateau]

Snake Island is the key to the sea access to Odessa etc, as well as being important in the southern air war

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539268070539153408

 

[wdolson]

The Ukrainians are reporting higher personnel, tank, and IFV losses yesterday

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539159291051094018

New artillery probably

 

[JRP3]

The Ukrainians are reporting higher personnel, tank, and IFV losses yesterday

Russian losses to be clear. I was concerned when I first read your statement.

 

[RobStark]

Russian losses to be clear. I was concerned when I first read your statement.

The Ukrainian government said they won't report those till the end of the war.

 

[ZsoZso]

Snake Island is the key to the sea access to Odessa etc, as well as being important in the southern air war

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539268070539153408

The images of fires breaking out is "surprising" considering that Russian media claimed all incoming attacks were neutralized by their defenses before they could reach the island. I wonder which one to believe: the satellite image or the Russian media ?!

 

[bkp_duke]

It was mentioned a month or two in this thread, but wanted to remind everyone that you can track "fires" from NASA's website here:

NASA-FIRMS

Fire Information for Resource Management System

firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov

Major firefight areas correspond very very well on the above map to what is being reported elsewhere.

 

[wdolson]

Russian losses to be clear. I was concerned when I first read your statement.

Yes, sorry. I see that same graphic everyday with the day's Russian losses as reported by Ukraine. The numbers obviously have some noise in them, even if the Ukrainians are trying to be accurate, which we can't be 100% sure.

My partner saw something yesterday where something was purportedly leaked form the Russians said the Russian dead numbered closer to 45,000.

It was mentioned a month or two in this thread, but wanted to remind everyone that you can track "fires" from NASA's website here:

NASA-FIRMS

Fire Information for Resource Management System

firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov

Major firefight areas correspond very very well on the above map to what is being reported elsewhere.

Those hot spot behind the lines are mostly due to artillery strikes. There are some decently large hot spots behind the Russian lines, more evidence the NATO artillery are doing what they are designed to do.

 

[Skipdd]

Even though I know from other sources that Russia/Putin’s aim is far greater than Ukraine, I still have a surprisingly sick feeling when I read a thread like this and see how deep their hatred is of the West/US is. And how deep their cynicism and lack of humanity is for other countries in their pursuit of their goals. In the same way, Russia uses the film Kamil Galeev discusses here as propaganda to stoke nationalism within Russia, I think the West, and the US should put this more widely into our media to help ordinary citizens see what Russia/Putin really thinks and what its aims are.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539258381243908096

 

[wdolson]

Even though I know from other sources that Russia/Putin’s aim is far greater than Ukraine, I still have a surprisingly sick feeling when I read a thread like this and see how deep their hatred is of the West/US is. And how deep their cynicism and lack of humanity is for other countries in their pursuit of their goals. In the same way, Russia uses the film Kamil Galeev discusses here as propaganda to stoke nationalism within Russia, I think the West, and the US should put this more widely into our media to help ordinary citizens see what Russia/Putin really thinks and what its aims are.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539258381243908096

The Brat movie franchise was a big deal in Russia, but it's infantile anti-west violence tripe. I wish someone would do something like a mainstream documentary about this sort of thing. I agree the public in the west should know all about this stuff.

There have been a flood of books along these anti-western themes too and there is a very popular nutter who claims that all the history books are wrong about the period between 1400 and 1648 and it's really the UK who is the Svengali controlling the world and really the US and UK are at war with one another.

This stuff is completely cuckoo but millions of Russians believe it.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Topic related article,

France's eye in the sky: Tracking Russian vessels in the Baltic

The cluster of dots on the Atlantique 2's screens may seem like a confusing mess to the untrained eye, but not to the crew of the French naval surveillance aircraft tasked with telling friend from foe…

www.france24.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Yes, sorry. I see that same graphic everyday with the day's Russian losses as reported by Ukraine. The numbers obviously have some noise in them, even if the Ukrainians are trying to be accurate, which we can't be 100% sure.

My partner saw something yesterday where something was purportedly leaked form the Russians said the Russian dead numbered closer to 45,000.



Those hot spot behind the lines are mostly due to artillery strikes. There are some decently large hot spots behind the Russian lines, more evidence the NATO artillery are doing what they are designed to do.

Well this is definitely one of those hot spots on the sat thermal tracking. This is a large DPR ammo depot on Donetsk cooking off after Ukraine struck it a few days ago. Apparently it was targetted because someone put a selfie video online that allowed the site to be geolocated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537845992996884480

Some of the stackers inside rather sensibly ran away, this is the first 10-mins of what was apparently a 3-hr conflagration. You can see ordnance flying overhead, apparently it landed up to 2km away.

however Russians appear to be making a significant advance in the Lysychansk area around Zolote and Hirske.

Invasion Day 118 – Summary

The summary of the 118th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 21st June 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: The situation at Lysychansk area of operations has worsened.

militaryland.net

 

[wdolson]

Kamikaze (drone) strike on Rostov

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539520241906159616

But the Russians bagged two M777s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539226328498683906