Russia/Ukraine conflict

[bkp_duke]

Resistance from who? The people of Donbas and Luhansk are all russians.

Actually, most are not, but we'll shelve that argument. And most of the men have been conscripted against their will and are being killed. The Russians are putting them on the front lines as cannon fodder.

And the FACT remains that we are now > 4 months out and Russia has shown they are having problems winning a war against a 3rd rate power. GROSS incompetence all around, from Putin, to his puppet generals, to the men on the lines. Piss poor training, inadequate equipment.

I guarantee you that China is taking notes and won't be bullied by Russia ever again. In 10 years time, don't be surprised if China is telling Russia what to do, instead of vice versa.

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541767363728752640

Ah, so the Russians are planning to surrender? By any objective measure of the term Nazi, they are the Nazis, not Ukraine.

 

[madodel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541767363728752640

So is he going to surrender?

 

[madodel]

Ah, so the Russians are planning to surrender? By any objective measure of the term Nazi, they are the Nazis, not Ukraine.

You beat me to it. Don't you have work to do?

 

[Tiger]

Ah, so the Russians are planning to surrender? By any objective measure of the term Nazi, they are the Nazis, not Ukraine.

You hit the nail on the head. What kind of a person is voicing upside for Russia for other reasons than advocating for more arms for Ukraine to fight back?

 

[iPlug]

Putin gets the award for "largest miscalculation of the decade". He's essentially created exactly what he was looking to avoid - a stronger, larger NATO on Russia's doorstep.

Subscribe to similar point of view.

But sometimes wonder if Putin really worried too much about this possible scenario since he never cared about developing Russia, but rather maintaining his power/control. In this case, he stays firmly in power and continues to tell his convenient idiots "look, the enemy is trying to get us."

 

[BMW740iL]

do you not feel joy when you see the lady singing?

 

[bkp_duke]

You beat me to it. Don't you have work to do?

Waiting on a client to sign a contract. Glued to my seat until then, can't do anything but smack the low-IQ troll here around. But that is mildly entertaining.

 

[Doggydogworld]

The US government has announced new sanctions on Russia including a price cap on Russian oil, limiting the amount of money Russia makes from the places it is still exporting. In addition NATO has announced that Sweden and Finland will be admitted. And on Monday, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt. Russia just keeps winning.

US unveils new Russia sanctions, implements ban on new imports of Russian gold

The old lies stopped working, time for new ones!. Yellen's "price cap" is just additional indirect supply chain disruptions, e.g. pressuring intermediaries such as insurance carriers.

Question for astute investors -- what happens when supply chains are disrupted?
A. Prices go down
B. Prices go up

Yeah. So let's review. The existing "sanctions" disrupted oil flow out of Russia by a small amount, say 15%. They also caused oil prices to double. So Putin makes 0.85 * 2.00 = 1.70x as much from oil as he used to. We really showed him!!!

Working within the apolitical confines of supply and demand, the west has two near-term ways to actually hurt Putin:
1. Consume ~1m bpd less and let Russian oil flow freely. Price crashes and Putin goes back to 1.0x income. Maybe even 0.8x.
2. Consume ~5m bpd less and blockade ships/pipes w/Russian oil. Price returns to normal and Putin income falls to 0.2x (mostly from China).

We can only force lower consumption via wartime rationing. Very unpopular. The public blames politicians directly. So politicians instead choose to lie -- pretend to take useful action while actually raising Putin's income and kicking low income consumers (especially rural ones) in the nuts. High prices are just as painful as rationing, of course, but the politicians can deflect blame by saying "oil prices are set on a global market, there's nothing we can do".

 

[iPlug]

...Working within the apolitical confines of supply and demand, the west has two near-term ways to actually hurt Putin:
1. Consume ~1m bpd less and let Russian oil flow freely. Price crashes and Putin goes back to 1.0x income. Maybe even 0.8x.
2. Consume ~5m bpd less and blockade ships/pipes w/Russian oil. Price returns to normal and Putin income falls to 0.2x (mostly from China).

We can only force lower consumption via wartime rationing. Very unpopular. The public blames politicians directly. So politicians instead choose to lie -- pretend to take useful action while actually raising Putin's income and kicking low income consumers (especially rural ones) in the nuts. High prices are just as painful as rationing, of course, but the politicians can deflect blame by saying "oil prices are set on a global market, there's nothing we can do".

Agree, this is a major challenge among democratically elected nations and probably no short term viable solutions. However, the war will likely continue to grind for many months to years in some significant fashion.

Would argue that another scenario may play out based on predominantly macroeconomic forces:
3a. (medium term: within months to a year): post-covid savings run low -> less discretionary income, reduced leisure travel with planes and motor vehicles, oil/gasoline prices recede
3b. (medium-long term: ~1-2 years): central banks' effects of interest rate hikes further reduces GDP, leading into potential recession ~2023 -> decreases fossil fuel demand further, oil/gasoline prices recede further with possible major correction >50% from current prices
3c. (long term: 2+ years): continuing transition to EVs, grid batteries, deployment of further solar PV and wind, and heat pumps -> enough marginal demand decrease of just a few percent decreases oil/gasoline/NG demand further

The bigger question to me during this time frame is what investments/retirements are made to refining capacity.

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540005479249838081

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540005479249838081

You have posted this twice since Friday now. Troll much?

 

[ThomasD]

Whether it's Lithium, precious metals or oil we have to mine for the stuff in this country. We can't rely on foreign countries for everything. Russia is selling it's oil to China and India. China dominates in materials refinement and battery production. “It refines 60% of the world's lithium, controls 77% of global battery cell capacity and 60% of the world's battery component manufacturing,” wrote Gavekal's researchers. “Of 200 battery mega-factories in the pipeline to 2030, 148 are in China.

 

[madodel]

Whether it's Lithium, precious metals or oil we have to mine for the stuff in this country. We can't rely on foreign countries for everything. Russia is selling it's oil to China and India. China dominates in materials refinement and battery production. “It refines 60% of the world's lithium, controls 77% of global battery cell capacity and 60% of the world's battery component manufacturing,” wrote Gavekal's researchers. “Of 200 battery mega-factories in the pipeline to 2030, 148 are in China.

Not everyone here is in the US.

What ticks me off is all the cries of "We have to be energy independent" and now that we actually produce all the oil and gas the US needs they create an artificial shortage by exporting it out of the US. It's literally extortion by the oil companies and the producing nations including the US.

Also isn't lithium literally everywhere? I thought Musk was going to buy his own Li mine.

 

[iPlug]

NATO reaches a deal with Turkey to admit Sweden and Finland, secretary-general says

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that the world’s most powerful military alliance reached a deal to admit Sweden and Finland after resolving the concerns of holdout Turkey.​

What was the price ?

Perhaps this: A day after Turkey dropped their opposition, we learned today that the US has now backed the sale of American made F-16's to them (in October Turkey requested 40 of these)

The U.S. moves closer to selling F-16s to Turkey.

 

[bkp_duke]

Not everyone here is in the US.

What ticks me off is all the cries of "We have to be energy independent" and now that we actually produce all the oil and gas the US needs they create an artificial shortage by exporting it out of the US. It's literally extortion by the oil companies and the producing nations including the US.

Also isn't lithium literally everywhere? I thought Musk was going to buy his own Li mine.

Li is everywhere, but Musk is smart not to mine it himself in the USA. Federal laws and EPA regulations can make mines liable for problems decades after their extractions are completed. Better to promote a 3rd party to do the extraction, prop them up, etc. etc. than to take on that liability oneself.

And I agree - we hit energy independence and then start shipping the stuff all over the world so that we . . . . can import fossil fuels from some other country. We are living the movie Idiocracy.

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542107441323802624

This was posted as a joke back in May, but has proven prophetic

We're on July's doorstep and they haven't accomplished their June objective. Russia. Is. Not. Winning.

NATO will expand, Finland and Sweden joining, Turkey drops objection, more stuff on east flank, full strategy paper released

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf

Worth re-reading old NATO releases, this from 2008 was re-affirmed today, "NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. "

Bucharest Summit Declaration - Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Bucharest on 3 April 2008

www.nato.int

When the USSR fell apart, Russia promised to play nice with the former Soviet Republics and Warsaw Pact nations if NATO didn't move eastward. Then Russia started making noises about putting the band back together and all those countries that opted out of the Russian sphere started getting nervous and demanded being under the NATO nuclear umbrella. NATO resisted for some time, but finally relented and started adding eastern European countries.

Russia got nervous and instead of realizing that it was their sabre rattling that was causing the movement towards NATO and backing down, they upped the ante, first taking a chunk out of Georgia and then two chunks of Ukraine as well as doubling down on their threats everywhere else. As a result, NATO became even more attractive to the countries that didn't want to be bullied by Russia.

Then Russia did a full scale invasion of Ukraine and the movement became a stampede.

Making serious noises about Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO is a big move, but considering Russia's danger to its neighbors, it's the right move for their safety.

 

[SageBrush]

It's literally extortion by the oil companies and the producing nations including the US.

It is capitalist economics. Look up 'fungible commodity.'

 

[EVCollies]

You have posted this twice since Friday now. Troll much?

I've ignored @BMW740iL, can I ignore all replies to @BMW740iL?

 

[Skipdd]

I've ignored @BMW740iL, can I ignore all replies to @BMW740iL?

Under BMW740iL’s avatar it now says “Banned.” If I understand this correctly, we won’t be seeing further posts from this OP.

 

[bobby g]

That's cause she's not getting screwed this time.