Russia/Ukraine conflict

[nativewolf]

Anyone heard anything in recent months of any plans for Ukraine to upgrade/synchronize their rail gauge/transport to that of the rest of Europe? Haven't come across anything on my end.

Obviously very challenging at the moment, but the sooner done the better.

Would allow much better flow through neighboring European countries to the west such as for grain exports and war supply/rebuilding imports. Also makes it much more difficult for Russia via Russia or Belarus to mobilize into Ukraine.

There are plans in the baltic nations. However, I think any plan in the Ukraine would require years of work.

 

[iPlug]

There are plans in the baltic nations. However, I think any plan in the Ukraine would require years of work.

Somehow thought I recalled reading they had begun "groundbreaking " on that, but appears the Baltic nations may not have started. Probably not cheap, but a lot more affordable than facilitating a naughty big neighbor's easy access as in Ukraine.

 

[kabin]

Russian Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild is having trouble entering the US.

Report: Russian NHL star Kirill Kaprizov denied entry to U.S. twice

Minnesota Wild star Kirill Kaprizov is reportedly mired in a frightening situation surrounding his military service requirements in Russia.

ca.sports.yahoo.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Somehow thought I recalled reading they had begun "groundbreaking " on that, but appears the Baltic nations may not have started. Probably not cheap, but a lot more affordable than facilitating a naughty big neighbor's easy access as in Ukraine.

Re Ukraine grain export the main efforts that do not involve reopening seaports are 1) riverine traffic and 2) increased silo capacity at the border crossings. The link below is re 1) and I haven't seen a good account of 2). Changing rail gauges is not on the cards right now in Ukraine.

Ukraine restores Danube River ports in emergency effort to get grain out

Soviet-era ports being resuscitated but officials say only way to mitigate global hunger is to end Russia’s Black Sea blockade

www.theguardian.com

 

[Skipdd]

Fascinating read. Kamil Galeev discusses the political structure of regions in Russia and how the war is impacting each. For example those regions closest to Europe, i.e, St Petersburg are faring the worst, as their industries were heavily tied to Europe. The tweet that most caught my eye though, was this one - which was a reply to Kamil’s post. Very interested in others’ perspective on it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545470857627275264

Appears it copied the replies as well as the original thread.

 

[X Fan]

An article worth reading:

Is this how Russia ends?

An interview with the writer Masha Gessen about why Putin might dare a nuclear strike on Poland, what democratic leaders don’t grasp that authoritarians do, and what Russia might look like after Putin

the.ink

 

[kabin]

Not sure what to make of this.

Zelenskyy fires Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, other envoys

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Kyiv's ambassador to Germany on Saturday as well as several other top foreign envoys, the...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[Cobos]

Not sure what to make of this.

Zelenskyy fires Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, other envoys

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Kyiv's ambassador to Germany on Saturday as well as several other top foreign envoys, the...

www.dailysabah.com

Norwegian media says at least the Norwegian ambassador has been sitting for 6 years and normal rotation is 4 years. This has been known for Norway for some time. That might be diplomats being diplomatic or might be the truth at least for Norway.

 

[iPlug]

Not sure what to make of this.

Zelenskyy fires Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, other envoys

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Kyiv's ambassador to Germany on Saturday as well as several other top foreign envoys, the...

www.dailysabah.com

Not sure how to explain other ambassadors, but Andriy Melnyk - Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany since 2014, was rather outspoken. On one hand he had been very critical of Germany’s slow response to the war. Doubt he was fired for that, as much as he ruffled German feathers.

However 1-2 weeks ago he did an interview and defended Stepan Bandera, the leader of the far right Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists during WW2 who collaborated with Germany during their occupation of Ukraine whose forces assisted in Polish and Jewish mass murder.

Russia should follow suit and fire their actual fascist leader.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

An article worth reading:

Is this how Russia ends?

An interview with the writer Masha Gessen about why Putin might dare a nuclear strike on Poland, what democratic leaders don’t grasp that authoritarians do, and what Russia might look like after Putin

the.ink

One of the takeaways that I have been posting a couple of times in this thread:..

".../ The other important thing in a totalitarian society is the absence of public space and public opinion. People are constantly asking the wrong question about Russia, asking, Do people support the war? There’s a recent poll showing that people support the war. At this point, it's an actual totalitarian society with actual terror. What are you going to do? It's like asking people, Do you support the war, or would you like to go to prison for 15 years? [My underline.] /..."

 

[wdolson]

Anyone heard anything in recent months of any plans for Ukraine to upgrade/synchronize their rail gauge/transport to that of the rest of Europe? Haven't come across anything on my end.

Obviously very challenging at the moment, but the sooner done the better.

Would allow much better flow through neighboring European countries to the west such as for grain exports and war supply/rebuilding imports. Also makes it much more difficult for Russia via Russia or Belarus to mobilize into Ukraine.

I expect there will be a rush to switch gauges as soon as the war is over, but it's too heavy a lift right now. Ukraine can't afford the downtime of the tracks to switch over nor do they have the funds or manpower to do it.

One of the takeaways that I have been posting a couple of times in this thread:..

".../ The other important thing in a totalitarian society is the absence of public space and public opinion. People are constantly asking the wrong question about Russia, asking, Do people support the war? There’s a recent poll showing that people support the war. At this point, it's an actual totalitarian society with actual terror. What are you going to do? It's like asking people, Do you support the war, or would you like to go to prison for 15 years? [My underline.] /..."

Agreed. Asking people what they think with a gun to their head, almost all are going to say what the person holding the gun wants them to say.

 

[bkp_duke]

I expect there will be a rush to switch gauges as soon as the war is over, but it's too heavy a lift right now. Ukraine can't afford the downtime of the tracks to switch over nor do they have the funds or manpower to do it.



Agreed. Asking people what they think with a gun to their head, almost all are going to say what the person holding the gun wants them to say.

Hindsight is 20/20 . . . but if they had already switched gauges it would have made it hell on earth for the russians to move armaments in Ukraine.

 

[wdolson]

Hindsight is 20/20 . . . but if they had already switched gauges it would have made it hell on earth for the russians to move armaments in Ukraine.

Very true.

 

[iPlug]

Appears Ukraine may be preparing for a counteroffensive to try to retake Kherson soon. Today Ukraine's deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk called on civilians to urgently evacuate on national television:

Ukraine tells residents to leave occupied south due to counter-attack plans

 

[bkp_duke]

Perun's latest analysis, this time about artillery:

 

[wdolson]

More evidence the Russians are pulling old equipment out of storage. A number of Tocha U seen in occupied territory. That is the predecessor to the Iskander which is officially out of service with the Russian army. It is an indication they may be running very low on Iskander rockets and they found some Tocha U somewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546111288367104000

 

[Skipdd]

I would like to believe this, but surely the Russians will adapt..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546256088324005890

 

[RobStark]

I would like to believe this, but surely the Russians will adapt..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1546256088324005890

The Russians have been largely successful fighting this way for over 600 years.

You think a months long or even years long setbacks will change their theory of war?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Beginning to run low on cannon fodder?...

"

• Russian military leadership continues to form ad hoc volunteer units and private military company combat organizations partly comprised of older men and criminals to support operations in Ukraine. [My underline.]

"

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces are in the midst of a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. This operational pause has been largely characterized by Russian troops regrouping to rest, refit, and reconstitute; heavy artillery fire in critical areas to set conditions

www.understandingwar.org

 

[MC3OZ]

Appears Ukraine may be preparing for a counteroffensive to try to retake Kherson soon. Today Ukraine's deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk called on civilians to urgently evacuate on national television:

Ukraine tells residents to leave occupied south due to counter-attack plans

I hope this is successful.

A major set back like this might convince enough Russians that the war is futile, and it will achieve nothing.

Once Russia starts losing territory faster than they are gaining it, that might trigger a rethink. I know this is optimistic, but it is the best hope for a quicker outcome.