petit_bateau
Active Member
AGM 88 HARM
Flakpanzer
Russian reinforcements
Flakpanzer
Russian reinforcements
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Austin said.
I was surprised to hear Lloyd Austin say the quiet part out loud. I take him at his word. I think Ukraine has long haul support.
I was surprised to hear Lloyd Austin say the quiet part out loud. I take him at his word. I think Ukraine has long haul support.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Lots of reports today around German gas storage bing a month ahead of schedule. No idea what this means as far as total winter supply is concerned.
petit_bateau
Active Member
It is good news.
Overall EU stocks are now such that with a bit of supply-side rationing and a bit of demand-side demand destruction (aka recession) the EU can now get through the 2022/2023 winter with ZERO Russian gas. The recession is of course already baked in globally at these price levels. In other words getting through this winter is really a political exercise (i.e. "can I get voted back in") rather than a technical exercise (i.e. "will the voters still be alive"). And there is still more stock refilling ongoing, and with every month the margin for error (i.e. cold winters, politics) improves.
I think it is 50/50 whether there will still be fighting ongoing for the 2023/204 Winter which is now the one where the biggest 'technical' pinch point exists. And that is the last winter in which this matters, as from then on the various renewables and efficiency adoption acceleration measures will almost entirely decouple EU from Russian gas, oil, and coal.
bobby g
Member
The religious and cultural drivers are mostly used to motivate people to die for the interests of the owners or coveters of the resources.
It isn't just Putin. The "liberal" faction in Russia is not that different when it comes to views about the outside world. A point Kamil Galeev has made many times. Dictators don't just spring up fully formed and take over. Any dictator needs cooperation to stay in power. Less than a plurality of the voters like in a democracy, put they need a cadre of allies to stay there as well as the ability to speak to the national memes. Hitler got people stoked up about Jewish people because there was a lot of antisemitism already there. He fed something that was there.
All dictators and would be fanned the flames of something already there.
As far as running Russia is concerned, the White Russians mostly in the NW part of the country are the only group that counts. All the factories in the ethnically non-Russian parts of the country have managers flown in from Moscow or St Petersburg. The people who live in these regions are modern day serfs with no voice.
The culture of ruling class Russia is xenophobic. Putin's allies use "Nazi" non-ironically to refer to Ukrainians and the west because it's a term everyone knows means any enemy of the state. While real Hitler worshiping Nazis are just fine. "Nazi" in Russian culture means something else than it does outside of Russia.
Even if Navalny were to come to power in a Mandela like return, he would still be in favor of conquering Ukraine, though a new leader might take the opportunity of regime change to cut Russia's losses and get out just from necessity. I think most leadership in Russia at this point realizes that the war can't be won and it's just going to be a big drain on resources until they pull the plug.
Some may hope the west is going to get bored and stop aid, but that's unlikely. The US' aid is barely a tick in the overall US budget. This is a very cheap war for the US and it has the potential to break the back of the Russian Empire forever.
So if Putin is replaced, it will likely be with someone with similar attitudes about the war, but they may come up with an excuse to end it for practical reasons.
That is probably one of the factors driving western countries to deliver aid.
They do, but the switchover is not going to happen overnight. There is also a big hill to climb with nuclear. Look at the back and forth in Germany whose economy really needs to keep their last nuclear plants running.
Realistically it's going to take decades to build up renewables to a point where fossil fuels can be shut off. In the meantime countries need safe sources of supply while they make the transfer.
This is interesting. The Ukrainians are probably using AGM-88s in the ground programmed mode, which is a basic function compared to the new features of the AGM-88B. The US may be dumping old inventory. Congress has authorized a lot of aid money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine. Giving Ukraine old stock that would need to be upgraded and replace it with new is a good way to upgrade under these circumstances.
Russia sent most of their trainers into Ukraine where they have been eaten by the machine. These volunteers will probably start out with better morale than the rest of the army, but it could plummet when they realize how badly trained they are. According to the Wikipedia article on this unit, they have a strength on paper of 15,500 (a reinforced US division), but most battalions are under strength. They might be lucky to reach 10,000.
It is notable that this unit is deploying with the best equipment the Russian army has, but a unit raised of almost all new recruits with two months from formation to deployment, they are going to be poor.
Contrast this with the deployment of new formations by the western Allies in WWII. For example the US 106th division which took the brunt of the German Ardennes Offensive's first days. It was formed in March of 1943 and didn't arrive on the front lines until December 1944. Against the experienced German units they fared very badly.
106th Infantry Division (United States) - Wikipedia
This was a unit made up of veteran NCOs and some veteran officers with over 20 months of training before deployment.
The sheer weight of throwing ~10,000 new troops into the battle will likely make a small but short lived dent in the frontline and Russian losses will be staggering.
The economy around the world is patchy. Europe is facing recession because of the energy shortage, but the biggest problem in the US is a labor shortage. Unemployment is near record lows, energy prices spiked but are dropping, and while inflation still is a problem it is improving.
Between the push for the US to re-industrialize to escape China's hold, the ramping up of the US defense sector to build more weapons to replace depleted stockpiles and send to Ukraine, plus a ton of infrastructure money pouring into the economy in the next few years the US economy will likely be quite strong for a while. A labor shortage is the worst problem.
I've been paying some attention to what's going on in the UK. Brexit, poor governance, and the war are all hammering the economy at once. On the continent the war is also causing an energy crisis.
It's going to be a rough winter for Europe. I hope things don't go politically pear shaped.
NewbyMaybe
Newby1Kenowby
Putin needs Ukraine to distract from his doomed bunker mentality. Hopefully there are folks surviving in the background ready for his collapse.
Migrating to clean energy and transport will drive some economic activity in Europe.
For example the Tesla Berlin factory making EVs, solar rand wind installations etc, demand in these sectors should remain strong. Governments and citizens might be prepared to take on extra debt if necessary.
The other underestimated factor is the ability if Ukraine to make their own weapons, as per the old saying "necessity is the mother of invention".
As the war drags on the EU should become more capable of living without Russian oil and gas, the Ukrainians should become better prepared, better resourced and better trained.
In contrast there are varying reports about how well the economy is holding up or will hold up.
In relation to China, they are not rushing to offer additional loans to Russia, and are cautious for multiple reason one of which being they want to keep trading with the west.
But for China this war is an opportunity to learn about the capability, unity and resolve of the west, So far, what China is learning, is giving them more reasons to be cautious.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
You are right in that it's not just Putler. I oversimplified to save time and to keep it shorter. But in your original post you consistently and exclusively wrote Russia/Russians. And that is just as well a GROSS oversimplification and just as well NOT TRUE.
Who started this war? Was it Putler or was it in fact someone else? Could this war have started if Putler was against it?
And there is also the fact that Putler and the moblike structure around him has gradually changed RuSSia since Putler came to power making any kind of impacting dissent impossible. RuSSia today is a Military Dictatorship. There is ZERO freedom of Press in RuSSia. There is no freedom of speech in RuSSia. There is no freedom of organization or assembly. There are no freedoms at all! Deciding what a majority of people think and want in such society becomes impossible.
AND: If Putler somehow is removed from power then no-one knows what will happen. Many Russians want Democracy. And that COULD also happen. IMO WE in the free and democratic west should focus on this goal instead of just constantly doom-and-glooming about each and every other nightmare scenario. Yes of course – prepare for the worst – but work against the best possible outcome!
As in most countries, Russians are not all the same, I don't think educated Russians are very different at all to us.
To pursue democracy and reform in a country ruled by a leader like Putin takes considerable dedication and courage, we know some Russians have that courage and it often lands them in jail.
It is likely that many others lack the courage, or pragmatic family related reasons for not speaking up. It is hard to judge how many want democracy.
Close to our borders Indonesia has made great strides as a democracy, so you never know what people will embrace when given a chance.
Those wanting the war are not just Putin, but they certainly are not all Russians, they may not even be a majority, it is impossible for us to know the internal split.
What we can say is a democratic Russia, with a proper system of government, a separation of powers, accountability, transparency, and the rule of law. would mean that the vast majority of the population are better off, and would also make the world a better place. Whether or not that happens is something we have no control over, or even a passing influence, only the Russians themselves can decide the issue.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I disagree. Western intelligence services should have a democratic Russia as a goal. They may not be able to influence in any significant way, but frankly that is beyond my current knowledge. There are also the imposed sanctions against Putler's RuSSia. They are having an impact and IMO they should be kept up until Russia begins to steer towards democracy in a meaningful way. Sanctions did bring the USSR to an end. Elected leaders of the democratic west may not be able to publicly express that we want regime change. But still – Biden did say that... IMO: As much as it is possible we should all help those inside RuSSia that want democracy – and we should also make it clear that this is what we ultimately expect of Russia once Putler falls.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
In 5 years the oil & gas industry will be dead and burried, just like coal. Putin and the various oligarchs will have run off with every penny made over the last 30 years.
The odds of that Russia working toward a democratic happytown are not so hot. More likely to devolve into the dark ages for a while.
I agree on the oil and gas industry, but that means the cartel no longer has the funds to pay the bills. What happens then is hard to guess. Do the Russians seek to re-engage with the world to remain relevant and to pay for the things they need? To trade with us and be relevant, they need to modernise their economy, to attract businesses back to Russia, a lot has to change.
I think they danger is that they double down on thinking warfare can achieve their aims.
As an example we can consider Germany and Japan after WWII, they were defeated in a way which Russia will not be, but most of their society abandoned war as a means to an end, and the rest of the world helped them rebuild.
How much helps Russia gets is influenced in a big way by what type of government it has.
Then there are all the other bad dominoes currently being propped up by Russia including places like Syria. a lot could change there.
We can't be certain of any outcome, things could definitely get worse, a total breakdown of law and order in Russia isn't a good outcome.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
As I understand it, there were a lot more nukes when the USSR fell. The nukes were secured then. It can be done again.
I'm guessing NATO has plans in place for this very eventuality...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
My bad.
Should of course be work towards... Unfortunately I can no longer edit that post...
Migrating to clean energy in Europe won't happen without energy input. Giga Berlin will be a big building sitting there without energy input.
If the energy shortage in Europe is too severe, industries will have to be idled.
In a dictatorship the dictator becomes the state and the state becomes the dictator. Putin did start this war, but the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin is tailored to punch the buttons in the heads of most Russians.
Dreaming about Russia turning into a liberal democracy is not realistic. For the Russians their short experiment with it in the 90s was a disaster. Those who remember that time think democracy is a weak form of government.
If you really want to understand Russian culture and what is possible Kamil Galeev grew up in Russia and was recruited by the FSB. Instead he left and went to work for a Washington DC think tank. He analyzes culture for a living and he has lived Russian culture.
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
He has made the case a number of times that democracy for the entire country is impossible. However one of the realistic possible outcomes is the dissolution of Russia as a unified country. A number of the fragments may eventually become democracies, but the goal should be for stability and a lack of external ambitions.
The average age of a car in the US is 12 years. At the rate of replacement if we had 100% EV production today, we would reach 50% EVs on the road around 2034. Currently about 1% of US sales are BEVs. We have no replacement for most naval and air uses of fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel usage may be showing some clear signs of decline in 5 years, but it will be far from dead.
Progress is happening but it's going to be slower than many people would like.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Currently, 5.6% of US auto sales are BEVs. Tesla has ~3.5% of US sales depending on which company's estimate you use.
EV Sales Hit New Record in Q2 2022 - Cox Automotive Inc.
This much we know: New-vehicle sales in the second quarter struggled, up only modestly from the first quarter and down more than 20% from Q2 2021. The reasons are well documented – tight inventory, high prices, consumer sentiment dropping. There were a few positive notes in the Q2 sales numbers...
www.coxautoinc.com
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Not really our problem, it is a matter for the Russians themselves to decide if what they are doing is working. I doubt life is thsst great there, when Ukraine joins the EU, life in Ukraine will be significantly better than life in Russia.
The people with voices we hear are the ruling elite, in every country there is a lot of variation in terms of personality types, life experience, and opinions. When a system falls apart, supressed opinions msy bubble to the surface.
Currently, 5.6% of US auto sales are BEVs. Tesla has ~3.5% of US sales depending on which company's estimate you use.
View attachment 846558
EV Sales Hit New Record in Q2 2022 - Cox Automotive Inc.
This much we know: New-vehicle sales in the second quarter struggled, up only modestly from the first quarter and down more than 20% from Q2 2021. The reasons are well documented – tight inventory, high prices, consumer sentiment dropping. There were a few positive notes in the Q2 sales numbers...
I did a quick search and maybe I found Q2 results from a previous year? EV sales are still in single digits percentage-wise, the Biden administration is shooting for 50% by 2030. If we're aggressive that might be possible.
That's just 50% of new car sales. Most of the ICE sold in 2030 will still be on the road in the 2040s.
