petit_bateau
Active Member
It wasn't me. I didn't think this sort of thing needed explaining. It is pretty obvious stuff. ..... Well, I kinda thought that until the Brexit vote really showed how dumb most folk are.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Another difference is that Ukraine is truly an aspiring Democracy while Russia is a completely rotten POS Military Dictatorship!
Let's have a look at the scores from Freedom House for 2021:
Russia: 20/100
Ukraine: 60/100
Now... Imagine where Ukraine could have been if the Dictator hadn't invaded in 2014...
Sources:
Russia: Freedom in the World 2021 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2021 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Russia.
Ukraine: Freedom in the World 2021 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2021 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Ukraine.
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Izyum may fall soon (back to Ukraine):
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KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
The soldier also had harsh words for Russians who say they're against the war but do nothing - "we have children" they protest. Or they call it "Putin's war" or "Putin's army", and he points out that it's Russia's war and army invading, every Russian that is just waiting this out is to blame, according to him.Another difference is that Ukraine is truly an aspiring Democracy while Russia is a completely rotten POS Military Dictatorship!
Let's have a look at the scores from Freedom House for 2021:
Russia: 20/100
Ukraine: 60/100
Now... Imagine where Ukraine could have been if the Dictator hadn't invaded in 2014...
Sources:
Russia: Freedom in the World 2021 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2021 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Russia.freedomhouse.org
Ukraine: Freedom in the World 2021 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2021 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Ukraine.
It's easy for me sitting in my armchair in Canada, though, with no artillery fire or threats within 1000's of km's, but these are his words. The culture of not being allowed to critique my government is foreign to me.
It's doubly so in the military there - he says that his paratrooper division (or whatever the term is) has been getting worse and worse over the last couple of decades because pointing out flaws gets you in trouble, and that's why their military is showing so poorly - you don't even have a chance to improve when the highest officials don't even hear about issues. Their medical treatment is worse than civilian care, apparently. It's just so interesting to hear his complex take on the whole thing (and it sounds like he agrees that there is only one aggressor, only one country to blame, but he only realised it when he arrived in Ukraine and discovered everything was a lie).
I've just read this re the captured senior officer. However what I have not seen is any evidence that the actual full size HQ got captured intact, and b) that it contained any/all of the records that the author is assuming are there. Maybe it does (if so, great), but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
@TrentTelenko: People on Twitter haven't really begun thinking through the implications of the capture of Russian Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi. If Ukraine got him, they overran his headquarters and all the pap...…threadreaderapp.com
Point taken
ISW reports some activity in Kherson, but it's going slow
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8
It may have been me. I've made similar points.
Lyman is probably part of the Izium operation. It's on the southern flank of the Izium front.
Seems to be 1+ day before confirmation, but the counteroffensive/liberation of territories east of Kharkiv appears to continue to evolve quickly. Multiple reports that Izyum, Kupyansk, Lyman and Sviatohirsk have all been retaken by Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/10/world/ukraine-russia-war
The eastern offensive, which began earlier this week, has cleared Russian forces from more than 2,500 square kilometers of land in the Kharkiv region as of Friday, according to an estimate by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/10/world/ukraine-russia-war
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Another local authority is calling for Putin to go.
They'll be arrested or have some sort of nasty accident, of course, but it shows the internal Russian unrest is gaining momentum.
www.newsweek.com
Meanwhile, Putin opens a Ferris wheel in Moscow to prove everything's fine and dandy.
en.kremlin.ru
They'll be arrested or have some sort of nasty accident, of course, but it shows the internal Russian unrest is gaining momentum.
Putin Faces Second Revolt as Russian Officials Slam War, Demand Resignation
Deputies in Moscow's Lomonosovsky Municipal District said "it all went wrong somehow" during the president's tenure.
www.newsweek.com
Meanwhile, Putin opens a Ferris wheel in Moscow to prove everything's fine and dandy.
Opening of new observation wheel at VDNKh and of Moscow High-Speed Diameter section
Vladimir Putin took part, via videoconference, in the opening ceremony of the Moscow Sun observation wheel at the VDNKh exhibition centre and the opening to traffic of a Moscow High-Speed Diameter section from Dmitrovskoye to Yaroslavskoye motorways.
en.kremlin.ru
petit_bateau
Active Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
Also the border north of Kharkiv city seems to be collapsing. Reports that Vovchansk, Velyki Burduk
South of Izium Ukraine forces in Hora Kremenets, which south of Izium. Also Ukraine forces on the north side. A lot of Russian troops and eqpt musy have been taken/lost/trapped.
There are also videos of Russian forces heading east away from Kupiansk as quick as they can go, on the P-07.
This is not good
www.theguardian.com
South of Izium Ukraine forces in Hora Kremenets, which south of Izium. Also Ukraine forces on the north side. A lot of Russian troops and eqpt musy have been taken/lost/trapped.
There are also videos of Russian forces heading east away from Kupiansk as quick as they can go, on the P-07.
This is not good
Offsite power supply to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant destroyed
IAEA says shelling makes the ‘situation increasingly precarious’ as reliable supply is unlikely to be restored
www.theguardian.com
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Some native speakers say this "war journalist" made many odd spelling errors. They also don't know who he is and suspect he's fake. I imagine Ukraine is sowing confusion and also shelling and probing in many other areas along the entire front to keep Russia guessing. But I take these random reports of retaking multiple large towns simultaneously with a huge grain of salt.
This Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty article has some good info, including a video with clips of a local Ukrainian commander. Regional officials say Kupyansk is liberated and show a pic of four soldiers with flags in front of this Kupyansk gov't building. It's a bit north of the city center on the west side of the Oskil River. Ukraine officially released a pic of a special ops group in Kupyansk, but they were clearly on the outskirts. There are also reports the bridge is damaged. The lack of fighting on the west half of town makes me suspect Russia retreated across the river to the eastern half and blew the bridge. That makes sense for an army being overrun. If they abandoned the eastern half of the city as well then I don't know what to think. That side is a logistics hub supplying the entire region. The river makes it much easier to defend. It makes no sense at all to just walk away.
On the other hand, I can definitely see Russia abandoning Izium and setting up on the other side of the Oskil River. Izium has no real strategic value and they can connect from the Oskil dam down to the Siverskyi-Donets River. That would explain why they're actually fighting in Lyman and Svyatohirsk and not in Izium.
It's a fluid situation, though. Russian propagandists also seem confused.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Another source about Lyman:
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
ZachF
Active Member
This whole thing is going to go down as one of the biggest geopolitical blunders in history.
petit_bateau
Active Member
There is still movement in Kherson, just less news about it. Meanwhile:
samf.substack.com
Gradually, then Suddenly
The Ukrainian flag is raised again in Kupyansk “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and...
samf.substack.com
Holy crap. Two things come to mind, will the UF be able to supply such a fast movement? and if they get to the Russian border will all of a sudden a few hundred thousand Chinese "volunteers" appear?There is still movement in Kherson, just less news about it. Meanwhile:
Gradually, then Suddenly
The Ukrainian flag is raised again in Kupyansk “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and...
Also the border north of Kharkiv city seems to be collapsing. Reports that Vovchansk, Velyki Burduk
South of Izium Ukraine forces in Hora Kremenets, which south of Izium. Also Ukraine forces on the north side. A lot of Russian troops and eqpt musy have been taken/lost/trapped.
There are also videos of Russian forces heading east away from Kupiansk as quick as they can go, on the P-07.
This is not good
Offsite power supply to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant destroyed
IAEA says shelling makes the ‘situation increasingly precarious’ as reliable supply is unlikely to be restored
This is a France 1940 type situation.
One thing that is a head scratcher is why the Ukrainians haven't launched an offensive from Zaporizhzhia city. The Russian forces in the area have been very weak for months and the terrain is good tank country.
My personal theory is the AFU has a large offensive force building up there but they are waiting for the right moment to launch. The Ukrainians want Crimea back but the borders of Crimea are the easiest to defend in all the captured Ukrainian territory. The best move for the Ukrainians is to wait until the Russians strip their troops from Crimea to support collapsing fronts, then launch a blitzkrieg from Zaporizhzhia city with the goal of establishing a firm bridgehead in Crimea before the Russians realize it's happening.
It would take a force prepared to move at maximum speed akin to the US invasion of Kuwait in 1991. I'm sure the US has been consulted.
A blitz move is Ukraine's best chance to take back Crimea without a bloody campaign.
The Russian generals might be trying to set up defensive lines on the rivers, but the troops might have other ideas. We know Russian morale is very bad. It's possible many units just decided for themselves they were leaving and the generals can't do much to stop them.
There is at least one story that the AFU is across the river
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1568588960695205888
In that part of the country the only defensible territory are the rivers. If the AFU crosses them without a fight, the Russian army has an impossible task defending.
There is still movement in Kherson, just less news about it. Meanwhile:
Gradually, then Suddenly
The Ukrainian flag is raised again in Kupyansk “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and...
Trent Telenko wrote an article a few months ago about a Lanchester Square Collapse of the Russian army. He said that with the stresses on the army such a collapse was highly probable, but predicting exacting what time and the breaking point would be is difficult.
Lanchester's laws - Wikipedia
Found his Twitter thread on it
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
He was talking initially about the differences in Soviet/Russian tank design and American. US tank design takes attritional warfare into account.
The Russians engaged in a brutal attritional war in Donbas not realizing the Ukrainians were not committing all their forces, just enough to whittle down Russian forces. The Russians on the other hand threw everything into the battle and badly weakened themselves.
bobby g
Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Reports from the Karkiv Oblast and fighting there are extremely positive. Russian troops leaving their positions when challenged and just as importantly, leaving behind ammo stores, vehicles, and equipment.
