Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

Allegedly. Would of course be very welcomed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569333337898074113

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

UPPDATERAS: Charkiv befriat till ryska gränsen - terrorbombning bröt strömmen i stora delar av Ukraina - Ryssland flyr från Svatove - ytterligare 20 tätorter befriade - stora ryska förluster på Chersonfronten, uppgifter om rysk reträtt

Charkivregionen ska vara befriad fram till ryska gränsen norr om Ukrainas näst största stad och fram till floden Oskil. Som hämnd terrorbombades Ukraina inklusive ett kraftvärmeverk i Charkiv, vilket tvingade fram strömavbrott i flera hela regioner av östra Ukraina. Ytterligare 20 tätorter ska befri

cornucopia.se

 

[X Fan]

Another Russian and oil and gas executive is dead.

This guy fell off his boat while sailing in the Sea of Japan. I’m sure glad I’m not affiliated with that Russian industry. Folks seem to have untimely deaths.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So what's the move from here? Looks to me like a shift south and push all the way to the coast and Crimean "border"?

 

[Doggydogworld]

So what's the move from here? Looks to me like a shift south and push all the way to the coast and Crimean "border"?

Probably. Though they may focus on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk while Russia is disorganized.

As for the south, Russia supplies Crimea and Kherson via two routes: the Kerch Strait bridge and the overland corridor through Mariupol that they established along the Azov coast. So the obvious move is to cut that corridtor by advancing from Zaporizhia through Melitopol, then launch missiles from the coast and take out the Kerch bridge. This would make it extremely difficult for Russia to defend Crimea and Kherson.

Partisans have been active around Melitopol for months, so it should be fertile ground. But Ukraine has succeeded lately by avoiding the obvious. So we'll see.

Wartime communication is difficult, though, possibly leading to other outcomes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569359097908150277

 

[wdolson]

I believe the HIMARs that were given to Ukraine are capable of calculating the source location from incoming shell trajectory and automatically targeting the source artillery, so they wouldn't even need spotters on the ground for that. Of course, this assumes quick counter-fire before the artillery is moved from the location.

The HIMARS aren't equipped with counter battery radar, though the HIMARS in NATO service can take data from counter battery radar systems and quickly calculate a firing plan. Initially the Ukrainians were not given those systems though some have been provided lately. NATO 155mm has better range than most Russian gun artillery and some rocket artillery. The ammunition for longer range rocket artillery is getting scarce. Additionally any Russian artillery that wants to shell Kharkiv would have to be very close to the border, well within gun artillery range.

Before this offensive the Russians were just barely holding on to territory that was within easy gun range of Kharkiv. Now that it's in Ukr hands, the Russian's ability to bombard Kharkiv is more limited.

So what's the move from here? Looks to me like a shift south and push all the way to the coast and Crimean "border"?

Things are getting unstable in Donesk and Luhansk. If the Ukrainians take those back first, then the only source of supply for all Russian forces in Ukraine will be the Kerch Strait bridges. That will include the garrison at Mariupol who will be at the end of a very long supply line.

Probably. Though they may focus on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk while Russia is disorganized.

As for the south, Russia supplies Crimea and Kherson via two routes: the Kerch Strait bridge and the overland corridor through Mariupol that they established along the Azov coast. So the obvious move is to cut that corridtor by advancing from Zaporizhia through Melitopol, then launch missiles from the coast and take out the Kerch bridge. This would make it extremely difficult for Russia to defend Crimea and Kherson.

View attachment 851833

Partisans have been active around Melitopol for months, so it should be fertile ground. But Ukraine has succeeded lately by avoiding the obvious. So we'll see.

Wartime communication is difficult, though, possibly leading to other outcomes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569359097908150277

I would make a similar attack but I would shift a little west and attempt to get a solid beachhead in Crimea before the Russians can react.

The last few weeks the Russians have had a lot of units in Crimea who were in transit to other places. The Ukrainians might be waiting for Russian forces to mostly clear out of Crimea before they launch their southern offensive. If the offensive goes very well they could capture the western end of the Kerch Strait bridges which would paralyze the entire Russian army in the south. Overnight all units would be limited to supply on hand and in local depots (which are under attack).

If any route out of Donesk and Luhansk were shut down, the entire Russian army left in Ukraine would be trapped with no way out. Even if they had the forces to try taking back the bridges from the mainland would be a suicide mission. Their forces would have to travel several miles across the bridges under fire with no cover with the ever present chance that one or more sections of the bridges will give out from damage.

It would be a military disaster on par with Russia's disastrous war with Japan in 1906 when they lost pretty much the entire navy. This time it would be the army.

The Tzar was able to put down the revolt that started after the disaster because the army was still intact.

 

[iPlug]

If Moldova wants to expel Russians from their illegal occupation in Transnistria, now is probably about as good a time as any. They must be pondering such things, no doubt.

Add to them Georgia, re: Abkhazia and Tskhinvali Regions and Japan re: Northern Territories (least likely by a wide margin).

Not predicting such things will happen, just food for thought.

 

[nativewolf]

rumor sphere is rife with reports of multiple units on west bank around Kherson negotiating surrender. The facts that will shed light on this as fact or fantasy will be shelling data. We know that even last night there were a few explosions in kherson but nothing like the previous nights. Watch the artillery tracker, if they are really negotiating than it is going to be a slow night with very very little exchange either way. If not we'll see things get pretty hot soon because things were shifting there.

Heartbreaking call from russian soldier to wife on wartranslated.com (very interesting site and a good visit- drop them some coffee money).

 

[Surfer of Life]

I honestly didn't know that things were this bad over at Fox 'News'... Unbelievable...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569321565531115523

Wholesale disconnect from reality.

 

[wdolson]

It looks like the Russians are holding back on sending any reinforcements to Ukraine. Most if not all Russian units were under-strength at the beginning of the offensive and it's worse now. With no replacements those already weak units are going to have even more trouble defending the ground they are tasked with defending.
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

Russia might be abandoning their remaining units to their fate. It's going to take Russia decades to rebuild even a third world quality army after this.

 

[nwdiver]

It's going to take Russia decades to rebuild even a third world quality army after this.

One of my favorite quips is that the Russian Army went from being seen as the 2nd best in the world to the 2nd best in Ukraine.

 

[wdolson]

If Moldova wants to expel Russians from their illegal occupation in Transnistria, now is probably about as good a time as any. They must be pondering such things, no doubt.

Add to them Georgia, re: Abkhazia and Tskhinvali Regions and Japan re: Northern Territories (least likely by a wide margin).

Not predicting such things will happen, just food for thought.

A patch for the garrison unit in the Russian Kuriles was found on some dead troops in Ukraine. It was rumored the garrison was around half strength before the war now it's probably bare bones.

One of my favorite quips is that the Russian Army went from being seen as the 2nd best in the world to the 2nd best in Ukraine.

I've seen that quip. It is a good one.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I think everyone benefited the alternative truth of the Russian Army being seen as the 2nd best (or best) in the world. In the Russian defense industry and in other countries. It only becomes a problem when it's actually used in a "special operation".

 

[petit_bateau]

So what's the move from here? Looks to me like a shift south and push all the way to the coast and Crimean "border"?

I try to resist commenting on what Ukraine might do next. In contrast I'm happy to relay what is actually widely known to be happening; or what are blindingly obvious facts.

So ...... on the matter of blindingly obvious facts ......... something to be aware of is that Tokmak is to the south what Kupiansk is to the north. The railway between Crimea and the Donetsk basin swings inland at this point and is closest to the existing line of contact. If that railway is cut by the Ukraine at any point along that line, then it becomes much more difficult for Russia to manage the southern theatre and the northern theatre in a mutually supporting manner, i.e. instead of it taking a week or so to move any reserves/stores/etc between theatres along that rail line it becomes a matter of an extra week or so to go via the Russian railway network. If Ukraine could go further and reach the Sea Of Azov coast then they would also cut the M14/E58 road highway. From Tokmak any attacker heading coastwards has a choice of directions whilst retaining force cohesion, whilst any defender is almost inevitably having to withdraw and split its forces as it withdraws.

Factors the Ukraine command team will be wanting to take into account are that they will ideally wish to deprive Russia of key infrastructure/assets/nodes whilst incurring the least casulaties, and the least additional front line themselves, and having the minimum of exposed salient.

EDIT. Another (imho) relevant factor is that Ukraine will not want to engage directly too close to the ZPPN nuclear complex at Enerhodar, but will want to retake it through manoeuvre and encirclement at a distance. I have put that in a square box on one of the maps.

 

[petit_bateau]

That is a whole lot of very brave people.

At some point the West will need to help the area now called Russia rebuild into responsible social-democratic societies, i.e. not mess up the way the West did in the 1990s through a mixture of boredom, shortsightedness, avarice, and triumphalism. We could have avoided all this, and created so much more that would have been positive. I don't know anything about the individuals who signed that demand for Putin's resignation, but as a minimum it takes courage for them to have signed. Whether the future will hold a unified Russia is another matter.

In the meantime we need to hold the course : in the West itself; then for Ukraine; for Moldova (Transnistria); Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) and at some point giving a better opportunity than the mess the Russians and their stooges are creating in Syria, Mali, CAR, Libya. But first in the West and Ukraine. Also I suspect some other 'Stans will want to become more independent of Moscow quite soon.

Strategic patience is something the West needs to learn to be better at.

When the cat is away, the mice start playing again ....

About 100 troops killed in clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Escalation of hostilities between south Caucasus countries prompts Russia and US to call for restraint

www.theguardian.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sounds like it would be fair game to me. Wouldn't even need to enter Russia...don't they have better artillery that could counter the Russian artillery?

Looks like the Russians were firing white phosphorous (WP) ammo at Kharkiv. That's a War Crime. The Russians are beyond caring about International Order and the Law of War. Funk international reaction. Take out those Russion assets with counter-battery fire immediately.

 

[Skipdd]

It looks like the Russians are “preparing” for UKR in Crimea..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569659989417152515

 

[petit_bateau]

Major escalation in Armenia/Azerbaijan border conflict. One has to wonder if this is locally triggered (quite plausible) or is a more Machievellian "apres moi le deluge" move by Putin ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569433843102277633

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569668896558579718

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569671258631016449

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569442037958844419

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569486610915545088

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1569484083704602624?

https://twitter.com/caucasuswar/status/1569488085494398979?

 

[petit_bateau]

Meanwhile on the matter of the Friends of Putin fanclub member #1, Orban in Hungary,,

Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy, MEPs set to declare​

In a draft report reviewing developments since Parliament activated Article 7, MEPs argue that EU values are under systemic threat in Hungary.
The draft text -which MEPs will discuss on Wednesday and vote on on Thursday

Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy, MEPs set to declare | 12-09-2022 | News | European Parliament

In a draft report reviewing developments since Parliament activated Article 7, MEPs argue that EU values are under systemic threat in Hungary.

www.europarl.europa.eu

(Or maybe Lukashenko, Orban, and Assad get to squabble over who is the #1)

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569700126175764480

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569700132349689866

 

[elasalle]

One Ex Pres is gonna take credit for this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569529516573491201