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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
I've been seeing a lot of reports of Russians and the DNR/LPR mafia/collaborators basically fleeing the occupied areas. We all saw those videos of very long (10-20k) traffic queues of civilian cars fleeing Crimea via Kerch bridge a couple of weeks ago. What was interesting about that was the DNR/LPR folk were apparently being turned back at the Russian border even if they were waving their brand new Russian passports. Now it appears that these reports are appearing in mainstream media, and are very clearly including mass populations trying to flee Crimea.
"Kyiv’s main intelligence directorate said employees working for the FSB – the spy agency Vladimir Putin used to run – have been quietly moving their relatives back to the territory of the Russian Federation. They have also been selling their flats, the directorate claims.
Until recently the possibility Ukraine might take back Crimea had appeared remote. But a series of mysterious and devastating Ukrainian strikes over the summer on Russian aerodromes and weapons dumps, as well as the collapse of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region, has resulted in thousands of residents fleeing.
The claim is difficult to verify. But Crimea’s Moscow-appointed leader, Sergei Aksyonov, appears to be increasingly rattled. In a video address on Monday he threatened locals with prosecution if they listen to Ukrainian music or chant Ukrainian slogans.
From Monday, anyone wanting to leave the peninsula via the Crimea Bridge will have to seek permission from an army conscription office, it has been reported. There is also a ban on house sales. Local pro-Kremlin TV stations, meanwhile, have sought to play down Russian losses."
from
Ukraine takes control of entire Kharkiv region and towns seized at onset of Russian invasion
===================
For those that want to read up on the Azeri/Armenia issues these are two fair pieces. This sort of stuff is very relevant for anybody thinking through the consequences of Russian defeat (occurring imho), or complete Russian implosion and further state breakup. In both scenarios the near-abroad of Russia has quite an abrupt power-lurch. That in turn is why I have included the third piece on Russia/China.
Why has fighting broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Nearly 50 Armenian soldiers killed in deadliest violence since 2020 war over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region
www.theguardian.com
About 100 troops killed in clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Escalation of hostilities between south Caucasus countries prompts Russia and US to call for restraint
www.theguardian.com
Strength of ‘limitless’ China-Russia ties to be tested at summit
Military setback in Ukraine further weakens Russian position as leaders prepare to jostle for regional influence in Uzbekistan
www.theguardian.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
The reports of Ukraine advances to the east of the Oskil River are increasing in volume. Notably Kremina seems to have been abandoned by Russian forces and it appears that Ukraine may be taking advantage of that. There are also reports of the wedge east of the Oskil between Kremina and Kupiansk also being taken by Ukraine, maybe even reaching Svatove in the east. To the south perhaps Lyman is being isolated and bypassed. I'm not sure whether all this is fully supported by the evidence, but certainly a lot more reports are saying the same thing. It is possible this is circular rumours of course - like I say the evidence base is sketchy. I've linked some of them below.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Two relevant cross posts from the daily energy news thread
teslamotorsclub.com
ZNPP seems to have 10-days diesel reserves, talks ongoing
www.world-nuclear-news.org
German nuclear reserves, lots of good background info
www.world-nuclear-news.org
EDIT : this is also relevant to what comes after
www.chinatalk.media
Energy Sector News
WTI $87.4/bbl Brent $93.7/bbl NL TTF gas €192/MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote) ZPPN shutting down completely...
teslamotorsclub.com
ZNPP seems to have 10-days diesel reserves, talks ongoing
IAEA says both sides 'engaging' with Zaporizhzhia safety zone plan : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi says that consultations have begun over establishing a "safety and security zone" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and says that despite shelling continuing "I have seen signs that they are interested in this...
German nuclear reserves, lots of good background info
Two German plants to be held in reserve temporarily : Nuclear Policies - World Nuclear News
Germany will shut down its last three remaining nuclear power plants at the end of 2022 as planned, the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection has announced. However, two of the plants, in the south of the country, will be kept on standby to supply power over the coming winter if...
EDIT : this is also relevant to what comes after
Lessons from Cold War Sovietology + DC Meetup
"It wasn't only about knowing the enemy; it was actually about knowing the world writ large."
www.chinatalk.media
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I've been seeing a lot of reports of Russians and the DNR/LPR mafia/collaborators basically fleeing the occupied areas. We all saw those videos of very long (10-20k) traffic queues of civilian cars fleeing Crimea via Kerch bridge a couple of weeks ago. What was interesting about that was the DNR/LPR folk were apparently being turned back at the Russian border even if they were waving their brand new Russian passports. Now it appears that these reports are appearing in mainstream media, and are very clearly including mass populations trying to flee Crimea.
"Kyiv’s main intelligence directorate said employees working for the FSB – the spy agency Vladimir Putin used to run – have been quietly moving their relatives back to the territory of the Russian Federation. They have also been selling their flats, the directorate claims.
Until recently the possibility Ukraine might take back Crimea had appeared remote. But a series of mysterious and devastating Ukrainian strikes over the summer on Russian aerodromes and weapons dumps, as well as the collapse of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region, has resulted in thousands of residents fleeing.
The claim is difficult to verify. But Crimea’s Moscow-appointed leader, Sergei Aksyonov, appears to be increasingly rattled. In a video address on Monday he threatened locals with prosecution if they listen to Ukrainian music or chant Ukrainian slogans.
From Monday, anyone wanting to leave the peninsula via the Crimea Bridge will have to seek permission from an army conscription office, it has been reported. There is also a ban on house sales. Local pro-Kremlin TV stations, meanwhile, have sought to play down Russian losses."
from
Ukraine takes control of entire Kharkiv region and towns seized at onset of Russian invasion
===================
For those that want to read up on the Azeri/Armenia issues these are two fair pieces. This sort of stuff is very relevant for anybody thinking through the consequences of Russian defeat (occurring imho), or complete Russian implosion and further state breakup. In both scenarios the near-abroad of Russia has quite an abrupt power-lurch. That in turn is why I have included the third piece on Russia/China.
Why has fighting broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Nearly 50 Armenian soldiers killed in deadliest violence since 2020 war over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region
About 100 troops killed in clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Escalation of hostilities between south Caucasus countries prompts Russia and US to call for restraint
Strength of ‘limitless’ China-Russia ties to be tested at summit
Military setback in Ukraine further weakens Russian position as leaders prepare to jostle for regional influence in Uzbekistan
The weakening of Russia is stirring up old rivalries around Asia. If Russia falls apart Asia is going to go through a profound realignment. China is probably better prepared to pick up the pieces than anyone else.
I read a terrain analysis of Luhansk an Donesk. The terrain offers descent advantage to someone trying to defend against an army moving on an E-W axis, but it offers little advantage for a defender trying to defend a southern attack. Ukraine knows this.
According to this the Russians have a sizable force down south in Donesk in contact with the Ukrainians, but in the north their forces are weak. If the Ukrainians have it in them for another push they could hook around the Russian forces in the north east and threaten the forces in Luhansk and Donesk from the rear.
UAWarData
If the map is accurate.
It would be a trick for the Ukrainians to renew the offensive full steam, but it could be done if they planned for it. The troops who took back Kharkhiv are tired. However if they have a decent reserve, they could move them up to the pointy end and let the first wave rest in place. They would also need the supply flow to continue too. The Ukrainians did capture many train loads of supplies that will help, but they need to unload those supplies and get them into their own supply system.
Mud season is coming soon, about a month. Moving offroad will be difficult until the ground freezes. Historically Russia has done well with winter warfare, but with their broken supply system a lot of Russian troops will not be getting winter gear. It's not as bad where the fighting is now, northern Ukraine gets colder, but Donesk usually gets cold in November and it starts freezing at night in November with average highs below freezing in December. Kherson is similar. If the war has moved to Crimea by winter the weather probably won't be a major factor.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
My concern is if Russia starts getting more clever and mines areas they're evacuating, or draws a tired/overextended UA into a trap with fake retreats & counterattacks, or poisons/traps supplies they leave behind, or goes back to their classic scorched earth retreats ("if we can't have it, no one can").
Then again, maybe I'm giving a low morale Russian army with poor structure too much credit...
Then again, maybe I'm giving a low morale Russian army with poor structure too much credit...
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Give me my way or I scorch the earth.........Medvedev says security guarantee demands by Ukrainian negotiators is essentially a NATO Article 5 guarantee.
Medvedev so terrified by security guarantees for Ukraine that hes talking about an apocalypse
STANISLAV POHORILOV - TUESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2022, 19:09 Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has called the recommendations of the Kyiv Security Compact for the strategic partnership of Ukraine and the guarantor states "a prologue to WWIII".www.yahoo.com
The Russians have fully defined themselves without ambiguity
Mark Hertling's comments on the need to rest and refit seem to have already been digested by the UKR senior staff. They have not over extended themselves and have been slow and methodical in moving into the vacuum created by the exiting russians.
My thoughts on the situation in the south is that Kherson is going exactly as wished by the UKR, a pinning and attrition based counter offensive with significant probing and recon to find weakness which can be exploited. At first the russians have artillery munitions sufficient to make attacks dangerous. Over time, weeks/months even, that will fall away and at some point they'll have to create a smaller perimeter and when the UKR get to the edge of Kherson then they will evacuate some elite forces but most of the LPR/DNR folks will be left to fight/surrender/die. Then the russians will engage in some pretty beastly artillery battles targeting any and all of Kherson. I fear that it will look like grozny or Aleppo. All of that will be for the russians to attempt to defend the bank of river in depth, it's very wide and mostly dunes/marshes in the delta some the same limits of crossing will hinder the UKR as it did the russians.
At that point a flank attack from the north from the existing UKR position across the bank of the river will be powerful, such a force will threaten not only the gateway to the Crimea but also threaten all forces and positions along the sea of Azov all the way to the border of russia. That will serve as a pinning action in and of itself because that is a huge front will only 1 really strong GLOC. That can be severed at almost any point.
Russia has been rumored to have pulled back 3-4 brigades to strengthen defense in depth in the area and have been building fortifications. That was early last month so I assume they see the same risks that @petit_bateau and @wdolson and others have described, some sort of pincer movement through this province.
Unknowns:
A note on the destruction of the guards tank army that has ceased to be in Izium. That was the army that led the coups in the 90s and was, historically charged with protecting Moscow. This tells you Putin has learned something...kill those that threaten him. Normally that army would not have been deployed. It had been on the front for 6 months with no rest and refit. It was meant to die.
My thoughts on the situation in the south is that Kherson is going exactly as wished by the UKR, a pinning and attrition based counter offensive with significant probing and recon to find weakness which can be exploited. At first the russians have artillery munitions sufficient to make attacks dangerous. Over time, weeks/months even, that will fall away and at some point they'll have to create a smaller perimeter and when the UKR get to the edge of Kherson then they will evacuate some elite forces but most of the LPR/DNR folks will be left to fight/surrender/die. Then the russians will engage in some pretty beastly artillery battles targeting any and all of Kherson. I fear that it will look like grozny or Aleppo. All of that will be for the russians to attempt to defend the bank of river in depth, it's very wide and mostly dunes/marshes in the delta some the same limits of crossing will hinder the UKR as it did the russians.
At that point a flank attack from the north from the existing UKR position across the bank of the river will be powerful, such a force will threaten not only the gateway to the Crimea but also threaten all forces and positions along the sea of Azov all the way to the border of russia. That will serve as a pinning action in and of itself because that is a huge front will only 1 really strong GLOC. That can be severed at almost any point.
Russia has been rumored to have pulled back 3-4 brigades to strengthen defense in depth in the area and have been building fortifications. That was early last month so I assume they see the same risks that @petit_bateau and @wdolson and others have described, some sort of pincer movement through this province.
Unknowns:
- What will UKR do with the recently altered LOC?
- Will they hold a division to respond to a renewed push by Russia into Kharkiv from Russia?
- UKR mobilization means that UKR has a manpower force advantage vs russia. Every video shows well equipped troops. The kit and health of the UKR seems so far superior that it's obvious western aid and training has reached down to the individual soldier. So now what? The manpower numbers reveal a huge amount of uncommitted reserves. We only have just begun to see western equipment committed to front line combat, damaged hummve etc. Where are the other 50k soldiers in new kit? Somewhere.
- Do they sweep down into these pro russian oblasts because the going will get tougher there, there are actually some pro russian citizens and they'll be reporting intel and resisting and morale should greatly improve for the militias if they are fighting on home territory.
- Will Zelansky do a Mandela like general amnesty for everyone in the war? It would be a powerful statement and did wonders for SA but Mandela was a force...the most savvy and ardent believer in his country that any nation could hope for (like churchill or washington or lincoln). This would leave the Russians fighting wrong-footed for Crimea by themselves. I think the USA civil war offers lots of lessons for others, SA is more recent. Both examples for study and that is future planning that UKR needs at this time when victory now looks possible.
- A few days ago firing along the Kherson perimeter had faded away almost into nothing, just a few rocket strikes but it seems to have heated up yesterday so maybe negotiations stalled or went nowhere. Will they get the Russians to surrender in Kherson?
- Where are the russians over extended? That's what UKR is searching for right now.
A note on the destruction of the guards tank army that has ceased to be in Izium. That was the army that led the coups in the 90s and was, historically charged with protecting Moscow. This tells you Putin has learned something...kill those that threaten him. Normally that army would not have been deployed. It had been on the front for 6 months with no rest and refit. It was meant to die.
Accidental Death of an Anarchist was a spectacularly funny Broadway play that closed in previews. My spouse and I were howling with laughter, the rest of the audience was silent or left before the finale. The TV series wasn't as good but still funny:
List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says
As the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, the Kremlin insists it will achieve its goals in Ukraine. But the collapse of Russian defenses has sparked criticism and prompted calls for Putin's resignation. Follow here for news updates.www.cnn.com
Wasn't even aware Russia had such options? Brave men. Hope no one has an accidental fall from window.
The Accidental Death of an Anarchist (TV Mini Series …
My Russian friends loved this even more than did the Italians. Life imitating art or something like that.
By all accounts this is perfectly descriptive of life in most of Russia right now. As usual, such things reach their peak just as the object of ridicule begins a slide to oblivion. Wishful thinking, perhaps, with no consideration that the cure might end out worse than is the disease.
As the number of overt political opponents passes four dozen and TV openly ridicules the present disaster, the Army is in panic and even Russians in Crimea are running away. Then there are the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Moldova and Georgia fraying Russian 'influence'.
When Russia begins to use Iranian and North Korean tools of war we cannot mistake nearing collapse.
Soon there will be general agitation to reply the ~$300 billion sequestered reserves to help rebuilding Ukraine. That has already begun quietly among Central Bankers and politicians. If Putin falls we should expect that to happen.
The gigantic unknown is how succession will happen. Realistically I think nobody knows.
More immediately the question is how much Ukrainian mobilization can happen to retain ground gained and continue advance. There are several precedents for such events: 1917 Russia, 1949 China Communist takeover, 1978-1979 Iran, 2011 Libya...and many others. Each of these had very strong dominating control that dissipated rapidly when the domination was effectively challenged. In each case the victors did not win, the establishment lost.
As a student of such events, probably not a very good one, I was present in-country for Vietnam, Iran, plus one of the Lebanon civil wars. Still, when working in Russia in the last couple decades I see many parallels:
1. In each case there was high prosperity for well-educated, urban, technical and professional people.
2. In each case, the general non-priveged populace lived in poverty or slightly above that.
3. In each case, the autocratic leaders spent fortunes on military and police functions.
4. In each case, favored 'business' people made huge fortunes through state largess, one way or another.
5. In each case, the autocrat made key errors advancing ego-driven nationalistic choices that overtly failed.
All five of those together have been the seeds of disaster, sooner or later. It seems to me that Putin has made his last gasp. Russians really do not admire losers, nobody does.
Keep in mind I have not always been correct in my assumptions. For example, I really thought Lebanon could not survive the 1975 war. What did I forget? Lebanon structurally has never had a single dominant figure, it has always been split in three distinct groups, none fo which can dominate, all of which can sow destruction.
This is Russia, almost always ruled autocratically. That fits the five crucial elements.
For Medvedev context we need to go back to 2008 when he became nominal President, while Putin kept the power as Prime Minister. He has always served as Putin's voice with injudicious comments or threats making it easier for Putin to deny or minimize whatever Medvedev says si it proves inconvenient. Just as Putin has 'food tasters' Medvedev is his 'political taster'.
What a nice world when Putin can make apocalyptic threats without himself actually needing to say anything at all. The quotation of Revelations 9.18 was such a threat of self destruction, a common technique of Medvedev (and Putin) to cloak the pronouncements in the protection of the Russian Orthodox cover so prized by Putin. No person should fail to understand the theocratic Russian-centric principles of the Putin regime.
This will strike fear in the thoughtful ones, lust for destruction in the demented minds of the 'faithful'.
The rational ones will need to act very quickly if they will at all.
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Good to see you posting again, btw. I got a ban because investors didn't like me commenting. I put my focus on the UKR perspective where hope for the future seems so much deeper than russia.
You offer a great alternative POV and ask the more penetrating question: What happens now in russia. Clearly the USA is preparing to rearm Georgia. If anyone missed it that was included in the most recent $2 billion funding package for eastern europe NATO countries (excluded hungry I think) and Georgia and maybe Moldovia (can't remember). So I expect Russia to lose Armenia as a client state, the poor Armenians. I weep for them.
Georgia will attempt to retake territory and what better time. Russia is wiped out. UKR mercenaries will help them. I bet the win.
I don't think we've ever seen such a resource rich, infrastructure developed country disintegrate. Iran..maybe. Frankly the infrastructure in russia is giant compared to Iran in the 70s where it was mostly just a few oilfields and nothing anywhere else. SA did not collapse and I think offers some insight for both UKR and russia. Russia literally spews cash and the central banker there (i forget her name) is an obvious talent and has built a competent organization. There's hope in her powers if you are a russian.
The FSB is, seemingly, the power mover at the moment. The 1st tank army that led the coups in the 90s is gone, just disintegrated this past week and that was the best unit that should have been guarding Moscow. Between the FSB husbanding goons in Moscow and killing oligarchs all over the world I wonder that any general will lead a coup- will any oligarch help them? They'd need good friends. Such a team would have to perform a deep cleansing in Moscow. Does the FSB control any nukes? Do any nukes work? It's a real question, no nation has the same vast quantity of nukes as Russia.
Lloyd and others are openly discussing destroying russias ability to make war on others.
Will China consume the russia far east? Makes so much more sense for China than to confront USA.
No coherent answer to your question. Just ramblings
You offer a great alternative POV and ask the more penetrating question: What happens now in russia. Clearly the USA is preparing to rearm Georgia. If anyone missed it that was included in the most recent $2 billion funding package for eastern europe NATO countries (excluded hungry I think) and Georgia and maybe Moldovia (can't remember). So I expect Russia to lose Armenia as a client state, the poor Armenians. I weep for them.
Georgia will attempt to retake territory and what better time. Russia is wiped out. UKR mercenaries will help them. I bet the win.
I don't think we've ever seen such a resource rich, infrastructure developed country disintegrate. Iran..maybe. Frankly the infrastructure in russia is giant compared to Iran in the 70s where it was mostly just a few oilfields and nothing anywhere else. SA did not collapse and I think offers some insight for both UKR and russia. Russia literally spews cash and the central banker there (i forget her name) is an obvious talent and has built a competent organization. There's hope in her powers if you are a russian.
The FSB is, seemingly, the power mover at the moment. The 1st tank army that led the coups in the 90s is gone, just disintegrated this past week and that was the best unit that should have been guarding Moscow. Between the FSB husbanding goons in Moscow and killing oligarchs all over the world I wonder that any general will lead a coup- will any oligarch help them? They'd need good friends. Such a team would have to perform a deep cleansing in Moscow. Does the FSB control any nukes? Do any nukes work? It's a real question, no nation has the same vast quantity of nukes as Russia.
Lloyd and others are openly discussing destroying russias ability to make war on others.
Will China consume the russia far east? Makes so much more sense for China than to confront USA.
No coherent answer to your question. Just ramblings
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
petit_bateau
Active Member
A T62 ....... !!!!! For those who don't know historically the number assigned to a Russian tank is the year it was designed. This is a 1962 tank design, pulled from very long term storage. They've run out !
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Ukraine is going to have a burgeoning metalworks industry after the war is over.
The amount of scrap metal left behind is really impressive.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Sadly, looks like Putler may not go anywhere anytime soon. His grip on power is impressive.
ISW says the Kremlin is painting all of this as a failure by the Ministry of Defense:
www.understandingwar.org
ISW says the Kremlin is painting all of this as a failure by the Ministry of Defense:
Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin officials and state media propagandists are extensively discussing the reasons
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Terrible gas mileage, maybe 1 gallons/mile
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That's the key! This is the latest Russian trick: they leave behind these gas guzzler tanks for the Ukraine army, so if they use them they will run out of their fuel reserves faster! It's all just strategic maneuvers, not real losses you seeTerrible gas mileage, maybe 1 gallons/mile
12 Russian oligarch deaths this year to date:
