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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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It appears the A-10 was never that great. I have a sentimental soft spot for it, but even if it was OK in the 80s (which it may not have been), it's almost as obsolete as a Spitfire now.
It was a very convincing video but I'd suggest reading through the comments for an entirely different perspective from people on the ground.
 
Modi - like Xi, working on their personal/local interests, have Putin by the cojones. Now that it is clear Putin is losing, they can extract more from him (read more discounted oil/gasoline/NG).
 
As long as the reparations come from the rulers; don’t need for a repeat of the Treaty of Versailles blowback.

Yes, you're right, it always comes from the people, doesn't it? Unless it comes at the expense of the environment, which again is a bill layed at the feet of the common people.

Instead of making Russia pay for the damages in Ukraine with dirty oil/gas money, wouldn't it be great to force them to build a network of HVDC transmission lines to interconnect Eurasia to the Siberian Wind Farm network?!

Well, I can dream... ;)

Cheers!
 
An indication of the prevalence of medieval torture carried out by the Dictators 'henchmen'...

WARNING!

Since I'm guessing that this might be NSFW and I also think TMC aims at being "family friendly" I'm not going to embed this tweet...

The hyperlink (in Swedish) below will take you to the tweet (in English):

berättar att enligt vittnesuppgifter har 25 ukrainska soldater tagits in på ett sjukhus

Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
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It was a very convincing video but I'd suggest reading through the comments for an entirely different perspective from people on the ground.

I've read some. Someone admits it isn't very good at taking out heavily armored vehicles, but is good at lightly armored and soft skinned. However the 30mm ammunition are uranium core armor piercing rounds that leave a horrible environmental mess behind. If they admit it's not a tank killer and arm it with HE rounds it may have a future role but right now the environmental cost is sky high.

David Petraeus paints a bleak picture for the Russians:

Ex-CIA director predicts ‘terrible, painful retreat’ for Russia | CNN (54 min ago)


I agree with him.

Modi - like Xi, working on their personal/local interests, have Putin by the cojones. Now that it is clear Putin is losing, they can extract more from him (read more discounted oil/gasoline/NG).

The problem for Modi and possibly Xi is that their oil storage facilities are almost completely full now. They can't continue to buy Russian oil at the rate they have been.

Modi's biggest concern is probably that Putin uses the one thing he has left: nukes. Any use of nuclear weapons on Ukraine is likely going to cause fallout in southern Russia, former Soviet republics, Iran, and India.

As long as the reparations come from the rulers; don’t need for a repeat of the Treaty of Versailles blowback.

That is a concern I have had, though Russia is less able to do what Germany did. German industry was very capable of re-arming themselves, but Russian industry has lots of holes in technology and would have to import a lot of tech to re-arm of find poorer quality alternatives. Russia also lacks the human capital to re-arm, both in a skilled workforce and in the ability to get enough troops to maintain a large army.

They hollowed out their training corps and got them killed in Ukraine. That's going to take a generation or more to rebuild alone. Any organization has a lot of institutional knowledge that isn't written down anywhere. If a lot of the old timers leave at once, the organization takes a huge hit because all that knowledge is gone. Russia has done that getting their trainers killed.

In any case it's a bad idea to put the cost of the war on the backs of regular Russians. Even if it doesn't create a Nazi Germany situation it could create a pool of terrorists who take their frustrations out on the world. Western countries have a lot of Russian immigrants, we don't want them radicalized from stories their family back in Russia told them.
 
Russian industry has lots of holes in technology and would have to import a lot of tech to re-arm of find poorer quality alternatives.
China strikes me as the obvious source.

In any case it's a bad idea to put the cost of the war on the backs of regular Russians. Even if it doesn't create a Nazi Germany situation it could create a pool of terrorists who take their frustrations out on the world. Western countries have a lot of Russian immigrants, we don't want them radicalized from stories their family back in Russia told them.
I cannot drum up much of a care for the regular Russians that are Pro-war and destruction of Ukraine so long as they are safe and comfortable. I understand the notion that the Versailles treaty spawned Nazi Germany, but the flip side is that aggressors that do not fear the cost of losing have no incentive to not pursue further aggression. This is why the warning from Putin that his war cannot cross into Russia must be ignored.
 
I've read some. Someone admits it isn't very good at taking out heavily armored vehicles, but is good at lightly armored and soft skinned. However the 30mm ammunition are uranium core armor piercing rounds that leave a horrible environmental mess behind. If they admit it's not a tank killer and arm it with HE rounds it may have a future role but right now the environmental cost is sky high.


The problem for Modi and possibly Xi is that their oil storage facilities are almost completely full now. They can't continue to buy Russian oil at the rate they have been.
1. There's a lot more to say about the role of air power and armoured vehicles which I will leave for another day, except to say that they have a heck of a lot of utility still. Re the A10 specifically if you look at how much of a tank's armour can withstand a 30mm depleted uranium round; vs how much can withstand a 30mm conventional armour piercing round, you rapidly realise that any way you look at it a lot of a tank is still vulnerable from a fairly conventional 30mm round. Note the Su25 also has a 30mm gun and is pretty comparable with an A10.

2. The pressure needs to be kept on Russia wrt oil & gas; and onto all buyers of Russian oil & gas.

3. Belarus needs to be helped, and deserves it ; they want to be a democracy :

 
China strikes me as the obvious source.


I cannot drum up much of a care for the regular Russians that are Pro-war and destruction of Ukraine so long as they are safe and comfortable. I understand the notion that the Versailles treaty spawned Nazi Germany, but the flip side is that aggressors that do not fear the cost of losing have no incentive to not pursue further aggression. This is why the warning from Putin that his war cannot cross into Russia must be ignored.

China doesn't make some of the tech Russia needs.

Most of the Russian people are unaware of the facts of what's happening because the media so systematically lies to them. We have people in the US living in a different universe from objective reality because they chose to only consume certain media. In Russia nobody has a choice to get objective fact based news unless they do a lot of work for it and then they face prison time for telling anyone the truth.

1. There's a lot more to say about the role of air power and armoured vehicles which I will leave for another day, except to say that they have a heck of a lot of utility still. Re the A10 specifically if you look at how much of a tank's armour can withstand a 30mm depleted uranium round; vs how much can withstand a 30mm conventional armour piercing round, you rapidly realise that any way you look at it a lot of a tank is still vulnerable from a fairly conventional 30mm round. Note the Su25 also has a 30mm gun and is pretty comparable with an A10.

Armor has always been most vulnerable from top attacks. Turret armor is thinner on top and the engine deck can't be armored at all. The trick is to be able to hit the bloody thing and the A-10's gun is not that accurate.
2. The pressure needs to be kept on Russia wrt oil & gas; and onto all buyers of Russian oil & gas.

3. Belarus needs to be helped, and deserves it ; they want to be a democracy :


So many Belorussians have joined the Ukrainian army they have had to increase the size of the unit a couple of times. Most of the Belorussian people want to be more like Ukraine than Russia.


There is a arrogance among the white Russians that being Russian is the pinnacle to existence and anyone who hasn't realized that yet is just ignorant. The concept that someone might understand what Russia is like and would prefer being something else is beyond their comprehension.

The kidnapping of children is akin to the schools for natives in some countries where native children were taken and educated in white man's ways against their will. These programs are big issues in Canada and Australia today. I believe in Australia kids were taken and adopted by whites too.

Similar things happened in the US though it was not as organized from the top down. My partner's grandfather was found on the Nez Perce reservation at age 5. He had blond hair so it was assumed he was not native and he was given to a white couple to raise a few states away. From all accounts he was a very angry adult.
 
Putin thought he would break NATO, eliminate Ukraine, and make Russia great again. He has grown NATO and made it stronger than ever and pushed Ukraine forever out of Russia's sphere and solidly into Europe.
If we had made America Great Again, Putin's calculus would look an awful lot different don't you think?
 
If we had made America Great Again, Putin's calculus would look an awful lot different don't you think?

Putin has been working on bad information. He probably thought his guy in Washington did more damage to the alliance than he actually managed.

ChrisO has translated a long essay from a Russian speaking analyst
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

One of Russia's many problems is the rampant culture of lying up and down the chain of command. Putin has been planning operations based on force strength numbers that were completely fictional. He was also relying on Ukraine's probable allies being fractured and unable to help them efficiently, probably based on boastful lies from a certain American he was depending on.