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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
I wonder if it was the threat of being booted from the UN or having it's cash dispersed to Ukraine that caused the pause????
petit_bateau
Active Member
1. Correct re Russian nuclear doctrine. I agree with your analysis there.
2. I also think it has legal implications in the parody that the Russian legal system is, i.e. it is not an aggressive war (which is illegal under Russian constitution) if it is a defensive war to repel invaders from Russian territory. So for example military personnel cannot be forced to serve outside Russia, but can be forced to serve inside Russia. So changing the borders of Russia means Putin can force more troops to go to the front lines.
3. A full mobilisation requires a declaration of war in Russian legal code. I'm not at all sure what the legal status of a partial mobilisation is, or indeed if it has any meaning at all. Some insight in these links.
Thread by @baunov on Thread Reader App
@baunov: THREAD 1/9 Today, with no warning, amendments to Russian law were introduced to the Duma & immediately passed in 3 readings. They bring Russia much closer to full mobilization & stipulate harsh penalties for...…
threadreaderapp.com
4. And some interesting tanks being shipped .... well done Slovenia
The M-55S tank: a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55 for the Armed Forces • Mezha.Media
Slovenia transfers 28 of its own M-55S tanks to Ukraine. This is a deep modernization of the Soviet T-55 tank.
mezha.media
5. Another good sign
6 ........ by the way declarations of war have implications in the UN, and in the subsequent post-conflict courts and tribunals.
7. Most reliable up to date maps are available again, see
Invasion Day 208 – Summary
The summary of the 208th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 19th September 2022 (Kyiv time). Day summary: Ukrainian Army secured the remaining part of Kupyansk and liberated several…
militaryland.net
- At this rate it will not be long before Ukraine can retake Lyman and the associated rail link that comes from Izium;
- Steady progress in Kherson;
- This chap/ess does the most reliable maps imho;
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
According to the BBC with this new Russian partial mobilization up to 300k veterans can be called back to the Russian Army.
Why mobilization will be a failure for Russia
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
The Russian reserves are nothing like western reserves. These are almost all conscripts who are kept on a reserve list for several years after their year of active service are up. They haven't been close to anything military in years. Western countries maintain active reserves who train regularly.
Russia's internal police forces are weaker because many were sent to Ukraine, now they are going to bring thousands of ex-conscripts back into the military and try to send them to Ukraine. They have a very limited ability to give them any training - the trainers are in Ukraine. Their weapons stocks are depleted so these returning conscripts are going to get worse gear than they had last time they were in. Their logistics system is already teetering, now it has to handle trying to feed and house a bunch of new people. There are no officers to keep these people in line or to provide any direction.
A lot of these factors were going on in 1917 and it did not turn out well. This time some of those draftees will have been following the real war with a VPN and they will educate their fellow troops.
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
The Russian reserves are nothing like western reserves. These are almost all conscripts who are kept on a reserve list for several years after their year of active service are up. They haven't been close to anything military in years. Western countries maintain active reserves who train regularly.
Russia's internal police forces are weaker because many were sent to Ukraine, now they are going to bring thousands of ex-conscripts back into the military and try to send them to Ukraine. They have a very limited ability to give them any training - the trainers are in Ukraine. Their weapons stocks are depleted so these returning conscripts are going to get worse gear than they had last time they were in. Their logistics system is already teetering, now it has to handle trying to feed and house a bunch of new people. There are no officers to keep these people in line or to provide any direction.
A lot of these factors were going on in 1917 and it did not turn out well. This time some of those draftees will have been following the real war with a VPN and they will educate their fellow troops.
This is the perfect excuse to expand the military hardware to MBT and jets.
It is really interesting to watch this disintegration of russia sphere of influence, as a student of history (but no master) just astounding and reminds me of 1989 when I had been sent to Finland- you could smell the change coming- it was palpable. I mean all the trans states are breaking away and plans for directing energy towards China instead of through russia. China is sitting there pulling these states into china while putin and others complain about EU and corrupting western influences. Russia will be left with Armenia and belorussia as alies. Poor Armenians, my heart weeps for them. Georgia will evict the occupying russians and join NATO with Ukraine. The trans states will all be aligned with Turkey and China. Russia will have lost everything in this war and only because putin didn't focus on the real enemy (lack of a developed nation state) but was transfixed with destroying the west. Crazy. His real competition was right in his rear the whole time and now he'll have lost the energy and influence of the largest aligned country (kazakh) and put a true cultural competitor next door that will no longer have need for russia. What then the eastern provinces. What will russias space program do? They will lose launch abilities.
Putin, an astoundingly brutal and cruel person that was hailed by russians and fascist wannabees everywhere is revealed as a modern day Mussolini. Cruel and incompetent and a terrible chess player, someone playing Tic Tac Toe when China was playing Go. Russia has wasted this brief moment when the world still needed the energy resources Russia (and USSR before that and Russia before that) depended upon. Instead the EU was forced to wean itself with a renewed and hastened focus on wind, solar, battery storage and alternative suppliers. Nothing could have moved EU to sustainability faster than putin attacking ukraine and nothing gave china greater opportunities for mischief in the backyard than a war with ukraine and nothing says incompetent like leaving 300 billion in the west to be locked away to pay for war damages. Not even mentioning bringing Finland and Sweden into NATO.
Ben Hodges is right...the west better be ready for russia wracked by revolt.
Now more than ever I am sure Ukraine is indeed planning a major third counter offense phase and I am equally sure it will be devastating and prepare for the last phase of this conflict.
It is really interesting to watch this disintegration of russia sphere of influence, as a student of history (but no master) just astounding and reminds me of 1989 when I had been sent to Finland- you could smell the change coming- it was palpable. I mean all the trans states are breaking away and plans for directing energy towards China instead of through russia. China is sitting there pulling these states into china while putin and others complain about EU and corrupting western influences. Russia will be left with Armenia and belorussia as alies. Poor Armenians, my heart weeps for them. Georgia will evict the occupying russians and join NATO with Ukraine. The trans states will all be aligned with Turkey and China. Russia will have lost everything in this war and only because putin didn't focus on the real enemy (lack of a developed nation state) but was transfixed with destroying the west. Crazy. His real competition was right in his rear the whole time and now he'll have lost the energy and influence of the largest aligned country (kazakh) and put a true cultural competitor next door that will no longer have need for russia. What then the eastern provinces. What will russias space program do? They will lose launch abilities.
Putin, an astoundingly brutal and cruel person that was hailed by russians and fascist wannabees everywhere is revealed as a modern day Mussolini. Cruel and incompetent and a terrible chess player, someone playing Tic Tac Toe when China was playing Go. Russia has wasted this brief moment when the world still needed the energy resources Russia (and USSR before that and Russia before that) depended upon. Instead the EU was forced to wean itself with a renewed and hastened focus on wind, solar, battery storage and alternative suppliers. Nothing could have moved EU to sustainability faster than putin attacking ukraine and nothing gave china greater opportunities for mischief in the backyard than a war with ukraine and nothing says incompetent like leaving 300 billion in the west to be locked away to pay for war damages. Not even mentioning bringing Finland and Sweden into NATO.
Ben Hodges is right...the west better be ready for russia wracked by revolt.
Now more than ever I am sure Ukraine is indeed planning a major third counter offense phase and I am equally sure it will be devastating and prepare for the last phase of this conflict.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
What will UKR do with 100k POWs ? Or more ?
I came across a nice dynamic map showing borders pre and post WWI. If I had to guess, I would say that Putin and his cronies dream of pre WWI borders
I came across a nice dynamic map showing borders pre and post WWI. If I had to guess, I would say that Putin and his cronies dream of pre WWI borders
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I'm sure Ukrainian high command would be happy to be thrown into that briar patch.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The one very bright light in this terrible affair.
One-way flights out of Russia were rocketing in price and selling out fast on Wednesday after President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists.
Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I like that Putin is trying to work this thru legal channels rather than simply doing what he pleases. Today feels like an out of the blue tactical nuke isn't going to happen at any point.
Tiger
Active Member
It is unclear is Armenia doing this to join sanctions or to prevent conscriptionable leaving russia:
Tiger
Active Member
Yeah, strange why don't he just change the laws to fit the present situation, it's not like there is more of an illusion of legality by falsifying documents.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
Radioactive fallout from the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would have a disproportionate impact on downwind countries like China and India. The leaders of those two countries can't be happy about Putin's saber rattling.
