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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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arming dis-illusioned youth might be counter-productive and revolution inducing.

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Putin does everything legally. In most cases he has the Duma to change the law to say what he wants. However the Russians have been paranoid enough about WMDs they have put in lots of safeguards to prevent a rogue actor from using them (Putin is paranoid about a rogue actor using them on him).

Additionally the US watches all Russian nuclear storage facilities and production facilities via satellite very closely. Russian nuclear forces have been completely on a peace tine footing with no hint they are preparing to use nuclear weapons.

The downwind situation from using a nuke would cause fallout across southern Asia ticking off a lot of countries he needs.



I don't think Putin trusts the Chechens and the private forces are the only thing holding the front together. Pulling Wagner out of the line could lead to a Ukrainian breakthrough.

Putin has had riot police who are tasked with putting down protests. He sent a lot of them to Ukraine to keep order after his three day war. Many of them are dead now, burned up as infantry. To stop protests he only has local police. Once local police are overwhelmed there will be no way to put doen protests.



The Duma is basically chosen by Putin's people. They manipulate the vote to ensure Putin allies always win. They basically do Putin's bidding.

Putin is much more concerned about protests turning into an overthrow of his government.



That's probably true, though there are over 2 million Crimeans between 18 and 60. There is a pool of young men to draw on.



Since the war began the government has been cracking down on corruption. Ukraine is a lot less corrupt today than it was a year ago. The war has accelerated a trend towards a stable and healthy democracy that has been ongoing since 2014. No country is 100% free of corruption, but that shouldn't be a major worry about Ukraine for a while at least.
follow the money and you will find corruption. USA has plenty of it including this huge COVID fraud case this week:
 
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follow the money and you will find corruption. USA has plenty of it including this huge COVID fraud case this week:

What we are talking is government officials stealing from the government, particularly high government officials.

Not private citizens defrauding the government.

The amount of stealing by high government American officials pails to what is going in Russia. Putin might be the wealthiest individual on Earth. China is probably a lot less than Russia but still way more than the USA.

And in the USA it is a lot more than the Scandinavian countries. Even the perception that you might be corrupt gets you tossed from politics in the Scandinavian countries.
 

They seem surprisingly optimistic. Guess reality will hit them in a few weeks/months :(
I doubt most of them will last that long. I've also seen reports of factory workers being summonsed to go directly to military units which will end up on the border within a few days from now. No training, just off you go.
The speed of the mobilization suggests to me that as soon as the results of the sham referenda are in, there will be a big push of this cannon fodder to the front line to try and overwhelm Ukraine with numbers. That's not going to end well for the fodder.
 
Desperate, Russia drafting men in their 50s already:

The Guardian’s Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth writes that the actual number of reservists called up to support Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine could exceed the 300,000 figure stated by the country’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu.



Also reports that despite Putin claims, some getting drafted have no prior military experience. Based on this if you are in the medical field, you may get drafted regardless of prior service:
Russian officials said the call-up would be limited to people with combat experience. But Yanina Nimayeva, a journalist from the Buryatia region of Siberia, wrote on Thursday that her husband — a father of five and an employee in the emergency department in the regional capital — had been called up despite never having served in the military. She said he had received a summons to an urgent meeting at 4 a.m. in which it was announced that a train had been organized to bring reservists to the city of Chita.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/22/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news
 
Yep, from "Agency News" - An independent Russian news channel on Telegram:

Novaya Gazeta.Europe also reported on Thursday, citing one source in the presidential administration, that the seventh clause of the presidential mobilization decree, hidden under the heading "For Official Use", actually allows you to call up a million people, and not 300,000, as said Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The Kremlin called this publication a "lie".

Context. The day before, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that those who served, have a military specialty and combat experience will be mobilized first of all.

At the same time, Putin's decree on mobilization does not indicate any restrictions on the age, category of fitness or territory of those called up for war. Also, the restrictions did not appear in the orders of the military commissars of several regions, which were published the day before.



I noticed that Putin emphasised "partial mobilization" in his adress yesterday. This surely means it's not that at all. Just like when he said he's not bluffing when he really is. ;)
 
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Yep, from "Agency News" - An independent Russian news channel on Telegram:

Novaya Gazeta.Europe also reported on Thursday, citing one source in the presidential administration, that the seventh clause of the presidential mobilization decree, hidden under the heading "For Official Use", actually allows you to call up a million people, and not 300,000, as said Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The Kremlin called this publication a "lie".

Context. The day before, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that those who served, have a military specialty and combat experience will be mobilized first of all.

At the same time, Putin's decree on mobilization does not indicate any restrictions on the age, category of fitness or territory of those called up for war. Also, the restrictions did not appear in the orders of the military commissars of several regions, which were published the day before.



I noticed that Putin emphasised "partial mobilization" in his adress yesterday. This surely means it's not that at all. Just like when he said he's not bluffing when he really is. ;)
To repeat a phrase I have seen a lot in the Institute for Study of War in the last couple months:
"These actions are unlikely to significantly increase Russia's effective combat power."
 
Anonymous leaks from the Kremlin re deaths
59 373 military
17 561 PMC's
4638 National guard.

Thats KIA or MIA and not including LDR DPR

If true, that's unsustainable. Even with 300k more "troops" as cannon fodder.

They can replace the men, but equipment is going to become an increasingly large problem.



For those that like them, this summary is out. I particularly enjoy these as the battlefield summaries and maps are excellent.

These are released once monthly, so the Karkiv changes, are not included.
 
Allegedly:


Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
What we are talking is government officials stealing from the government, particularly high government officials.

Not private citizens defrauding the government.

The amount of stealing by high government American officials pails to what is going in Russia. Putin might be the wealthiest individual on Earth. China is probably a lot less than Russia but still way more than the USA.

And in the USA it is a lot more than the Scandinavian countries. Even the perception that you might be corrupt gets you tossed from politics in the Scandinavian countries.
Sure but you are missing my greater point is that when there is money involved corruption happens (btw: pick a US program that has substantial $ associated with it and you will find significant losses due to fraud....ie, Medicare/Medicaid, Covid, etc). Bad actor Governments pilfer more easily but like I said if there is substantial money available, fraud follows.
 
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