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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Love Sam.

What is Putin going to do when the younger generations in Russia simply decide to abandon the old ways and move more towards a Western style of living? I guess the ole guard will loose its sugar like the SA Government prior to the fall of Apartheid or even the "right" in the US as it looses its ability to win elections. History tells us that stepping harder on the neck of an ascending group never ends well.


White South Africans are Western People that wanted to be part of the West. English or Dutch.

Russia is its own civilization unto itself. It seems that most/may want to be part of the West simply move West.

There is always a bit of triumphalism after every election. Waves and realignment. But don't see any evidence of the American Right fading away. Young people voting Left has always been a thing. Flower power American Baby Boomers didn't install socialism once they controlled the American government.
 
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Flower power American Baby Boomers didn't install socialism once they controlled the American government.
IMO, the original poster was eluding to the concept that the current ability for the current “right” in the US to be electable is becoming problematic because the current “right” would view Richard Nixon as a socialist; just my opinion.
 
White South Africans are Western People that wanted to be part of the West. English or Dutch.

Russia is its own civilization unto itself. It seems that most/may want to be part of the West simply move West.

There is always a bit of triumphalism after every election. Waves and realignment. But don't see any evidence of the American Right fading away. Young people voting Left has always been a thing. Flower power American Baby Boomers didn't install socialism once they controlled the American government.
I was speaking to the inevitable dilution of the old white guard..... (and for anyone that finds that offensive, I speak as a member)

The operational side of me really wanted to see SA start advancing a few generations through the educational system without regard to appearance then have government hire from a pool of candidates behind a curtain. The best win. The government slowly evolves to more equitably represent the people it hopes to govern. Silly me.

I see the "right" in the US doing the same thing. The old white conservative guard is loosing the ability to win elections. Instead of evolving their coalition and their message, they are simply resulting to a post fact or alternative fact world (credit to K. A. Conway). The similarity I see between the US and SA is an unwillingness to accept and adapt to inevitable change.
 
Really great thread on USA's stance towards Ukraine from Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor - please read in full as suggested.
Great piece!

If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left it would end the war. If Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine.
 
Newly freed citizens of Kherson calling loved ones via Starlink:

kherson-starlink.png

(picture by Lynsey Addario for The New York Times)
 
This may have been posted earlier just in case. I personally feel we are all being railroaded; the MIC is having a field day and the "best" solution for all seems to be an endless war. Here's a fresh look from someone who knows better than most

Thanks for forwarding... I subscribe to Medium, but somehow missed this very well written opinion piece. However, it seems to refute what you wrote introducing it! I suggest you read again and especially take Ukraine and Russia's recent actions into consideration. When Ukraine takes back Crimea, I believe the writer's comparison to results of the Russo - Japanese war of 1904/5 will occur, if not before. As such an "endless war" will not be the conclusion of this conflict.
 
Thanks for forwarding... I subscribe to Medium, but somehow missed this very well written opinion piece. However, it seems to refute what you wrote introducing it! I suggest you read again and especially take Ukraine and Russia's recent actions into consideration. When Ukraine takes back Crimea, I believe the writer's comparison to results of the Russo - Japanese war of 1904/5 will occur, if not before. As such an "endless war" will not be the conclusion of this conflict.
Right, here's the conclusion:

Ending the Ukrainian War​

If you give Putin even one finger, he will have won the war. Russia’s leadership must therefore be humiliated, and the only way is for it to retreat. We need a repetition of the 1905 Russo-Japanese war. In this case, Putin will be overthrown from the inside, because, historically, people who accept autocracies do not like the weak. A weak Putin is no longer Putin — just as a nice, tactful, and thoughtful Trump would no longer be Trump. For this to continue, it takes a lot of suckers to keep feeding the narrative — and if the suckers begin to doubt the story, it will be the beginning of the end.
Even resetting territory to February (but making no concessions in terms of recognizing any Ukraine territory as Russian) would be a humiliation to Russia. But the way things are going, Ukraine logically will continue pushing until a true stalemate is reached (which it hasn't yet, Russia is still in retreat). That means even before a stalemate is reached, Ukraine will likely gain back more territory than they started with in February. However some of the proposals like officially giving Crimea to Russia at this juncture in exchange for peace, very much is not the same thing, given Russia would have still "gained" something from this war.
 
The younger generation has time on their side if nothing else.
A big problem in the short term (~ 5 years) is that many of them left to protest, many left in order to not get "drafted" and many have been sent to the front only to get killed there or when they return if they were captured or arrested for protesting.
Right, here's the conclusion:

Even resetting territory to February (but making no concessions in terms of recognizing any Ukraine territory as Russian) would be a humiliation to Russia. But the way things are going, Ukraine logically will continue pushing until a true stalemate is reached (which it hasn't yet, Russia is still in retreat). That means even before a stalemate is reached, Ukraine will likely gain back more territory than they started with in February. However some of the proposals like officially giving Crimea to Russia at this juncture in exchange for peace, very much is not the same thing, given Russia would have still "gained" something from this war.
I don't think so, especially now. The Ukrainians are more charged up than ever and with the weapons known to be coming in as well as some rumored, I think they will be well prepared to fight over the ill prepared Russians. I believe they will retake Crimea and force (along with the West) Russia to pay reparations (even if that means the West unfreezing their assets specifically for that purpose). Putin will be forcibly removed from office and hopefully better alternative will take control.

While no one can predict the future with certainty, that's what I see (and hope) with what's happening on the ground currently. JMO though...
 

Ben has doubled down on this and since he has been proven correct regarding taking Kherson..who knows. I do see that northern Luhansk has become a pinning motion, frankly the whole border from Bakhmut to Savtove has been Russia throwing bodies on the line.

For months he has been saying Crimea by summer 2023. His interviews are well worth catching.
 
Wagner proudly posted up video of the execution of a deserter with a sledge hammer to the head. Like some kind of sick tribute to Gallagher. I guess they think that will help their combat effectiveness? Barbaric.
They think it's a form of intimidation. To the rest of the world, it's just a sign of how backwards and morally bankrupt Russia has become.