Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Allegedly...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592220614290714624

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592188567119630338

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

Ukraina uppges befriat halva Kinburnhalvön - stor mängd ryska krigsbrott avslöjas i Cherson, redan över 400 - fortsatta ryska anfallsförsök på Donetskfronten och stora ryska förluster

Ukraina uppges delvis befriat Kinburnhalvön på vänstra sidan om Dnipros utlopp. President Zelensky meddelade i sitt kvällstal att över 400 ryska krigsbrott på tidigare ockuperade Chersonfronten redan har uppdagats och kroppar av mördade civila har påträffats. Ryssland fortsätter anfalla på Donetskfr

cornucopia.se

If true, this is huge. If nothing else a strong Ukrainian beach head on the left bank ties down a lot of Russian troops that would otherwise be freed up to go somewhere else.

A visual of the 2 possible unconfirmed beachheads. Slight correction to what I said above, the western beachhead is not on the Dnipro at all, it’s at the mouth of the gulf. Makes me wonder if there are more beachheads.

View attachment 874614

Starting to think they put the full scale attack on Kherson on hold until they were prepared to do this assault immediately after, before Russia had a chance to prepare their defenses. Big question is how do they get heavy equipment across. Artillery support can come from the north shore, but they will need tanks and heavy equipment to push this attack forward much.

I think everyone assumed Ukraine would be making their attack in the east. Also, I think people expected Ukraine to consolidate their success before making another big move. This sort of immediate follow up is very aggressive.

This is… pretty damned smart if it succeeds. Ukraine has done a lot of crazy/ bold moves, this seems like another one.

The US gave Ukraine some amphibious vehicles. Somebody posted about it a couple pages back in this thread. That can ferry some equipment across, but keeping them fueled would be tough without a bridge.

If they can count on those Himars, maybe they can advance far enough to capture some Rus artillery and use it as their own.

the Ukrainians have a lot of 152mm artillery sidelined now because of a shortage of ammunition. And Russian guns are pretty worn out at this point. The Russians are very bad at maintenance.

 

[SPadival]

Yeah... You're probably right here... Who in their right mind could possibly think that there was a conspiracy inside Russia to invade Ukraine... [Irony]

. nice change of subject when the answer is inconvenient. Let me remind you that your original question was “where neo-nazism in Eastern Europe came from?... “

Poor Ed Dolinsky, the Director General of Ukrainian Jewish Committee provides the answer in his last tweet

 

[Artful Dodger]

U.N. begins voting to release impounded Russian funds for Ukraine: (here's some yeahs/nays/abstainers)

 

[Artful Dodger]

If they can count on those Himars, maybe they can advance far enough to capture some Rus artillery and use it as their own.

It's not # of tubes that matter, it the ammo stockpiles. Ukraine seems to have received quite a lot more ammo through Russia's ongoing 'lend/lease' program during the evacuation of Kherson.

 

[SmokyPeat]

It's not # of tubes that matter, it the ammo stockpiles. Ukraine seems to have received quite a lot more ammo through Russia's ongoing 'lend/lease' program during the evacuation of Kherson.

I saw some photos of a warehouse in Kherson with a fair amount of Russian munitions left behind. It makes you wonder why they didn't scuttle those stockpiles. Since they seemed to have been planning the withdrawal for at least a couple of weeks. Strange.

 

[Ogre]

I saw some photos of a warehouse in Kherson with a fair amount of Russian munitions left behind. It makes you wonder why they didn't scuttle those stockpiles. Since they seemed to have been planning the withdrawal for at least a couple of weeks. Strange.

You have to have troops that give a damn about following orders in order to do things like that.

Russian discipline:
Officer: Sgt Nikolai, make sure all that ammunition gets destroyed before you pull out.
Sgt Nikolai: Private Ivan, destroy all that damned ammunition.
Private Ivan: Private Boris, go light up that ammo, we're rolling out!
Private Boris: Help me load up these washing machines first...

 

[wdolson]

. nice change of subject when the answer is inconvenient. Let me remind you that your original question was “where neo-nazism in Eastern Europe came from?... “

Poor Ed Dolinsky, the Director General of Ukrainian Jewish Committee provides the answer in his last tweet View attachment 874636

I recommend this entire lecture series. It's a college course running this fall semester at Yale. This lecture covers the influences on Ukraine surrounding WW II. Lecture 17 covers a bit more of the WW II period he didn't get to in this lecture

This goes a long way towards explaining Nazism in eastern Europe.

I saw some photos of a warehouse in Kherson with a fair amount of Russian munitions left behind. It makes you wonder why they didn't scuttle those stockpiles. Since they seemed to have been planning the withdrawal for at least a couple of weeks. Strange.

The Russians were planning on taking a few more days to withdraw. The Ukrainains hit some vehicles on either the pontoon bridge or the main bridge that triggered a massive explosion. It may have set off demolition charges the Russians had set. It's unclear. The explosion dropped the spans of the main bridge (can't spell it from memory) and it took out several sections of the pontoon bridge too. At that point the Russians still had about 12K troops on the right bank and they hadn't dealt with the remaining supplies, but with the bridges gone, things turned into chaos and the remaining Russians on the right bank had to figure out what to do.

My partner showed me a video today of scads of Russian equipment on the bank of the Dnipro. It appears they stripped down and tried to swim the river. Pretty gutsy in November.

 

[BitJam]

My partner showed me a video today of scads of Russian equipment on the bank of the Dnipro. It appears they stripped down and tried to swim the river. Pretty gutsy in November.

There are also reports of many Russians bodies found along the banks of the Dnieper. This is more evidence of a hasty and poorly organized retreat. Such a hasty retreat would explain why Ukraine immediately went on the offensive and performed an (unconfirmed) amphibious assault on the Kinburn Peninsula on the left bank of the mouth of the Dnieper.

Unfortunately, TASS (the Russian news agency) and others say the raid was neutralized, 4 vessels were destroyed and 20 servicemen were killed.

 

[EVCollies]

Pretty good case why Crimea will fall before Donetsk.

 

[Ogre]

There are also reports of many Russians bodies found along the banks of the Dnieper. This is more evidence of a hasty and poorly organized retreat. Such a hasty retreat would explain why Ukraine immediately went on the offensive and performed an (unconfirmed) amphibious assault on the Kinburn Peninsula on the left bank of the mouth of the Dnieper.

Unfortunately, TASS (the Russian news agency) and others say the raid was neutralized, 4 vessels were destroyed and 20 servicemen were killed.

There are videos of the Ukrainians launching an absolutely massive rocket attack (did not look like HIMARS but could have been) on the day of the retreat. I suspect Ukraine had no mercy on the retreating Russian troops. On top of that, Russia seems to have blown the bridges early so very likely the slower forces were trapped on the Ukraine side and getting pounded.

As for the raid on the Kinburn Peninsula, I wouldn’t trust anything that comes out of TASS. That said, it was a very risky move. Sometimes risky moves don’t pay off. It could also have been a simple raid, not planned as a beachhead, but to sabotage some artillery or air defenses there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I saw some photos of a warehouse in Kherson with a fair amount of Russian munitions left behind. It makes you wonder why they didn't scuttle those stockpiles. Since they seemed to have been planning the withdrawal for at least a couple of weeks. Strange.

Leadership. Officers puffo'd, and the Ruskie's don't have a professional NCO corps. Don't expect hero's from the mobiks.

 

[Ogre]

Leadership. Officers puffo'd, and the Ruskie's don't have a professional NCO corps. Don't expect hero's from the mobiks.

Yeah… also, incompetence and corruption aside, mortality is just eating them up so much that basics are hard.

Absolutely massive gaping holes in their command chain. Huge numbers of people who have little to no experience. Stunningly large casualty rates. Many battalions are thrown together from the remnants of existing battalions.

How do you destroy an ammo dump filled with unexplored ordinance and survive? The guy who usually does that sort of thing is dead. I could probably figure it out, but with HIMARS raining down I wouldn’t want to be near it long enough to figure it out.

Honestly… Russia is barely holding this whole thing together. Russia is burning up their entire military country on this war. The country was a hollowed out disaster before the war

It’s unprecedented what they are doing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Honestly… Russia is barely holding this whole thing together. Russia is burning up their entire military country on this war. The country was a hollowed out disaster before the war

It’s unprecedented what they are doing.

Moskva is becoming Beirut. If they're not careful, it'll become Mogadishu. It's not clear that their leadership cares what happens.

 

[SmokyPeat]

How do you destroy an ammo dump filled with unexplored ordinance and survive? The guy who usually does that sort of thing is dead. I could probably figure it out, but with HIMARS raining down I wouldn’t want to be near it long enough to figure it out.

A couple Jerry cans of gas/diesel, a pile of wood/tires, a lighter, and run like hell. Assuming it's real ordinance and not the kind of bombs that Wiley Coyote would use with external fuses.

 

[Ogre]

Moskva is becoming Beirut. If they're not careful, it'll become Mogadishu. It's not clear that their leadership cares what happens.

I know this isn’t the Beirut incident you are thinking of… but I think it’s a equally applicable.

 

[wdolson]

There are also reports of many Russians bodies found along the banks of the Dnieper. This is more evidence of a hasty and poorly organized retreat. Such a hasty retreat would explain why Ukraine immediately went on the offensive and performed an (unconfirmed) amphibious assault on the Kinburn Peninsula on the left bank of the mouth of the Dnieper.

Unfortunately, TASS (the Russian news agency) and others say the raid was neutralized, 4 vessels were destroyed and 20 servicemen were killed.

Perun's latest video has an example of how the Russian media ends up with false stories of Russian successes. It stems from their culture of lying about everything. This was posted the other day

The Russians probably made contact with the Ukrainians on the left bank, but everything else probably stems from a bunch of lies told up the chain of command with everyone doing CYA and exaggerating the claims.

There are videos of the Ukrainians launching an absolutely massive rocket attack (did not look like HIMARS but could have been) on the day of the retreat. I suspect Ukraine had no mercy on the retreating Russian troops. On top of that, Russia seems to have blown the bridges early so very likely the slower forces were trapped on the Ukraine side and getting pounded.

As for the raid on the Kinburn Peninsula, I wouldn’t trust anything that comes out of TASS. That said, it was a very risky move. Sometimes risky moves don’t pay off. It could also have been a simple raid, not planned as a beachhead, but to sabotage some artillery or air defenses there.

It appears the bridge was blown accidentally. A number of Russians shed their uniforms and tried to blend into the civilian population, others appear to have tried to swim the river.

The Ukrainians have many BM-21 Grad rocket launchers. They are very inaccurate. Ammunition for them is scarce so they haven't been used much for a few months, but they could have a few back in service with captured ammunition.

Yeah… also, incompetence and corruption aside, mortality is just eating them up so much that basics are hard.

Absolutely massive gaping holes in their command chain. Huge numbers of people who have little to no experience. Stunningly large casualty rates. Many battalions are thrown together from the remnants of existing battalions.

How do you destroy an ammo dump filled with unexplored ordinance and survive? The guy who usually does that sort of thing is dead. I could probably figure it out, but with HIMARS raining down I wouldn’t want to be near it long enough to figure it out.

Honestly… Russia is barely holding this whole thing together. Russia is burning up their entire military country on this war. The country was a hollowed out disaster before the war

It’s unprecedented what they are doing.

There are ways to remotely destroy things. There are munitions with timers that could be set to explode some time later. A more common way is to set some C4, or something similar, then run wires to a detonator set up a safe distance away. Push the button and drive off in your vehicle.

Their gutting their army trying to keep it in the field. It is doing damage to the country. Russia may not survive this.

There have been some equally bad military decisions through history. Hitler's choice to go to war with the UK, USSR, and US at once was ultimately suicide for Germany. Japan's decision to go to war with the US and UK was also suicide. There are other examples from history. A lot of European empires ended because a leader made a seriously bad calculation.

Moskva is becoming Beirut. If they're not careful, it'll become Mogadishu. It's not clear that their leadership cares what happens.

They are hoping something will happen to save them. There are religious zealots with a lot of influence in the Russian government who are convinced that they are on a holy mission and that something will happen to save them from this mess. They were hoping it would be the US midterms, but that didn't really go their way. The Republicans will probably end up with a tiny majority in the House, which could vanish when somebody leaves office for one reason or another.

 

[Ogre]

There are ways to remotely destroy things. There are munitions with timers that could be set to explode some time later. A more common way is to set some C4, or something similar, then run wires to a detonator set up a safe distance away. Push the button and drive off in your vehicle.

Sure. But you have to know a little bit about explosives to rig this. Not a ton, but at least a bit. You also have to have the right stuff to do it. If you didn’t have any explosives experience, would you be fiddling with setting a timer on C4 in a room full of explosives?

Their gutting their army trying to keep it in the field. It is doing damage to the country. Russia may not survive this.

Yeah… very crazy times.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don’t think the term is used much, particularly not in places where a simpler East/ West designation makes sense. But if you look at the Dnieper, it switches from being mostly north/ south to mostly east/ west a bit northwest of Melitipol which makes it confusing.

It is standard miltary and cartographic usage since centuries ago.

 

[cookiefactory]

Ukrainians are in for a hell of a winter if their electrical transmission and distribution infrastructure continues to get taken out at their current clip. Just a senseless humanitarian crisis. Hopefully a lasting peace can be achieved soon.

 

[unk45]

I recommend this entire lecture series. It's a college course running this fall semester at Yale. This lecture covers the influences on Ukraine surrounding WW II. Lecture 17 covers a bit more of the WW II period he didn't get to in this lecture

This goes a long way towards explaining Nazism in eastern Europe.



The Russians were planning on taking a few more days to withdraw. The Ukrainains hit some vehicles on either the pontoon bridge or the main bridge that triggered a massive explosion. It may have set off demolition charges the Russians had set. It's unclear. The explosion dropped the spans of the main bridge (can't spell it from memory) and it took out several sections of the pontoon bridge too. At that point the Russians still had about 12K troops on the right bank and they hadn't dealt with the remaining supplies, but with the bridges gone, things turned into chaos and the remaining Russians on the right bank had to figure out what to do.

My partner showed me a video today of scads of Russian equipment on the bank of the Dnipro. It appears they stripped down and tried to swim the river. Pretty gutsy in November.

Snyder's video classes are very good for the basics, albeit quite long. If you're old-fashioned enough to read books, this one offers superb historical context and helps explain many other Eastern European issues. There are several other Snyder books that explain much of the context for modern nation-states.

Amazon.com