Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Sure. But you have to know a little bit about explosives to rig this. Not a ton, but at least a bit. You also have to have the right stuff to do it. If you didn’t have any explosives experience, would you be fiddling with setting a timer on C4 in a room full of explosives?


Yeah… very crazy times.

Every army has combat engineers, including the Russian army. This would be a fairly easy task for a combat engineer team.

Combat engineers were in Kherson, they built the pontoon bridge.

Ukrainians are in for a hell of a winter if their electrical transmission and distribution infrastructure continues to get taken out at their current clip. Just a senseless humanitarian crisis. Hopefully a lasting peace can be achieved soon.

The Russians have been launching very few missiles at infrastructure the last 10 days or so, though they did launch a bunch of drones yesterday. Nobody knows how many precision rockets Russia started the war with, but it's pretty obvious their stock is low. They started using anti-shipping missiles a few months back and have been using anti-aircraft missiles in the attacks on the electrical grid.

It's going to be a rough winter in all of Europe between energy shortages west of Ukraine and the damage to the infrastructure in Ukraine.

Snyder's video classes are very good for the basics, albeit quite long. If you're old-fashioned enough to read books, this one offers superb historical context and helps explain many other Eastern European issues. There are several other Snyder books that explain much of the context for modern nation-states.

Amazon.com

Much of my free reading time is taken up reading about the war right now, but eastern European history is an area I've been meaning to study more for some time. The changes to borders in eastern Europe are mind numbing compared to western Europe.

 

[nativewolf]

More confirmation from Ukraine that they did capture the kinburn spit. @petit_bateau had mentioned that the area had been subject to humans attacks from barges so I’d they can barge a humans I guess they could unload munitions to support ground forces. Lots of chatter about raids across the river, Opsec seems to have broken Down a bit.

 

[unk45]

Every army has combat engineers, including the Russian army. This would be a fairly easy task for a combat engineer team.

Combat engineers were in Kherson, they built the pontoon bridge.



The Russians have been launching very few missiles at infrastructure the last 10 days or so, though they did launch a bunch of drones yesterday. Nobody knows how many precision rockets Russia started the war with, but it's pretty obvious their stock is low. They started using anti-shipping missiles a few months back and have been using anti-aircraft missiles in the attacks on the electrical grid.

It's going to be a rough winter in all of Europe between energy shortages west of Ukraine and the damage to the infrastructure in Ukraine.



Much of my free reading time is taken up reading about the war right now, but eastern European history is an area I've been meaning to study more for some time. The changes to borders in eastern Europe are mind numbing compared to western Europe.

A strong hint of Snyder's explanations is his knowledge of Russian, Yiddish, Polish and more. I really thought I was well informed due to academic studies, but after reading three of Snyder's books I realize I understood very little. In particular, after Bloodlines,specifically, it becomes entirely clear how and why hugely different views of history can be seen as accurate and unquestionable with 'honest' intentions; that is to say actual belief rathe than intentional distortions, even in the midst of many lies.

In the present context Bloodlines gives insight and context about the evolution of Lithuania (actually made a nation by Stalin's regime), Ukraine as well as all of Eastern Europe. Because Snyder explains how the transition from traditional areas to eventual nation-states he also explains how Vilnius changed from majority Jewish to eventual Lithuanian and how Kyiv evolved and became the target of Russia's enmity in the 1930's.

Not to overstate all this, my perception of Ukraine completely changed after reading Snyder. Not least is the realization that Vladimir Zelensky actually represents vastly more of a departure that even the most ardent fans might expect. I will not say much more, except to finally understand how intractable and determined the Ukrainians are, and how determined and devoted many Russians are. Similarly, the evolving nationalistic ideas in many Russian republics seems also to be emerging. Thus more instability is inevitable. The current Russian Federation will not survive in the present configuration, but further dissolution will be bloody too.

The UN resolutions of yesterday may begin to explain more. Just look at the votes. I wish we could hear Professor Snyder on that subject also.

 

[nativewolf]

d

More confirmation from Ukraine that they did capture the kinburn spit. @petit_bateau had mentioned that the area had been subject to humans attacks from barges so I’d they can barge a humans I guess they could unload munitions to support ground forces. Lots of chatter about raids across the river, Opsec seems to have broken Down a bit.

Himars instead of humans would make more sense, autocorrect is. Or my friend

 

[unk45]

You'd think that living on the banks of the Mississippi River for 20+ years, I'd know that. But we always referred to "the Illinois side" or "the Iowa side".

It's easy if you just remember that St. Clair County, IL and Belleville are on the Left bank. FWIW, I graduated from a University in that area, although they were decidedly on the Right bank in their minds.
Sorry for that political aside. I could not resist, even though I've not been in that area since 1966. Some places change less than do others.

 

[unk45]

I know this isn’t the Beirut incident you are thinking of… but I think it’s a equally applicable.

It definitely is, since much of the Russian conventional weaponry is as ancient as was that Beirut storehouse contents.

 

[nativewolf]

“Crimea will soon return to Ukraine, and Russia will disintegrate” - a big interview with General Ben Hodges, 9 November 2022 • WarTranslated

“Crimea will soon return to Ukraine, and Russia will disintegrate” – a large interview with General Ben Hodges 9.11.2022 Full article in Ukrainian and Russian by Anastasia Zazulyak (Channel 24, Ukraine): https://24tv.ua/ben-hodzhes-pro-zakinchennya-viyni-rozpad-rosiyi-zagrozu-bilorusi_n2193753...

wartranslated.com

An interview with Ben Hodges from November 4, he certainly is clear about things. Very little qualification of his answers.

 

[Ogre]

Every army has combat engineers, including the Russian army. This would be a fairly easy task for a combat engineer team.

Which circles back to my original point. Most likely Russia has a huge shortage of any type of specialist which required training at this point in the war. Including combat engineers.

 

[iPlug]

Russia retreating further from the left bank (eastern side) of the Dnipro. Reported on NPR as well this morning.

Natalya Humenyuk, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, said Moscow appeared to be repositioning troops and artillery 15-20 km (10-15 miles) further from the Dnipro, to protect its guns from Ukrainian counter-strikes.​

​

Russia rains missiles across Ukraine as signs emerge of further retreat

 

[Ogre]

Russia retreating further from the left bank (eastern side) of the Dnipro. Reported on NPR as well this morning.

Natalya Humenyuk, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, said Moscow appeared to be repositioning troops and artillery 15-20 km (10-15 miles) further from the Dnipro, to protect its guns from Ukrainian counter-strikes.​

​

Russia rains missiles across Ukraine as signs emerge of further retreat

Wow, clearly when they pulled out of Kherson they just kept going. So Russia is apparently going to make a stand at Crimea?

This gives Ukraine space to make a secure bridge across the Dnipro and quickly get armor on that side of the river so they can advance on Crimea or Melitipol quickly.

 

[iPlug]

Reportedly Russian attempted strikes on Lviv resulted in two stray rockets falling in the town of Przewodów in Poland on the border with Ukraine killing two people:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592583364934275072

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592585624468353024

 

[Artful Dodger]

This gives Ukraine space to make a secure bridge across the Dnipro and quickly get armor on that side of the river so they can advance on Crimea or Melitipol quickly.

I don't think Crimea is the move. It withers and dies on its own. I think Ukraine needs to move with all haste to Meltipol and block the Russian withdrawal for forces from Kherson.

If they don't they'll have to deal with them in Bakhmut, so better to take them out in the withdrawal. Crimea has little strategic value right now, the unanswered issue is in the Donbas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reportedly Russian attempted strikes on Lviv resulted in two stray rockets falling in the town of Przewodów in Poland on the border with Ukraine killing two people:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592583364934275072

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592585624468353024

Highly dubious photo posted via linked tweet: (see below)

WarMonitor on Twitter: "“Two stray rockets fell in the town of Przewodów in Poland on the border with Ukraine. They hit the grain dryers. Two people died.” " / Twitter​

If this hay wagon was anywhere near this position before the detonation that created that crater, then the largest piece of the hay wagon remaining would be about a foot of tattered wood board. As it is, the tires aren't even popped. And no damage to the tractor? Not even broken glass? This part at least was staged

Could be attempted spin by whoever captioned the tweet.

Cheers!

 

[Skipdd]

Highly dubious photo posted via linked tweet: (see below)

WarMonitor on Twitter: "“Two stray rockets fell in the town of Przewodów in Poland on the border with Ukraine. They hit the grain dryers. Two people died.” " / Twitter​

If this hay wagon was anywhere near this position before the detonation that created that crater, then the largest piece of the hay wagon remaining would be about a foot of tattered wood board. As it is, the tires aren't even popped. And no damage to the tractor? Not even broken glass? This part at least was staged

Could be attempted spin by whoever captioned the tweet.

Cheers!

Maybe, but now I’m reading that Poland scrambled jets.. We need more info and confirmation, which I’m sure will be coming.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592593686457888769

 

[SmokyPeat]

I bet it was stray rockets. The grain wagon didn't take a direct hit. Definitely not a drone sub.

 

[Discoducky]

Best details I could find. *IF* this actually happened, things could get bad fast. I'd hope the Kremlin says something and cooler heads prevail.

It links to this information:

US intelligence source reported Poland missile strike - AP​

The Associated Press news agency says a senior US intelligence official was the source for the report about missiles hitting a Polish farm, without naming the official.
Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the report, AP says.
The Pentagon has said it cannot corroborate the report, Reuters news agency says.
The Polish meeting is scheduled for 20:00 GMT.
Reuters quotes Polish firefighters as confirming that two people died in an explosion in Przewodów.
"Firefighters are on the spot, it's not clear what has happened," said Lukasz Kucy, officer on duty at a nearby firefighters' post.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Best details I could find. *IF* this actually happened, things could get bad fast. I'd hope the Kremlin says something and cooler heads prevail.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6373e3e6f15ea55905e42324%26US%20intelligence%20source%20reported%20Poland%20missile%20strike%20-%20AP%262022-11-15T19%3A16%3A45.141Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:fb982a0b-af2e-4bfd-8f67-396490ab5cc2&pinned_post_asset_id=6373e3e6f15ea55905e42324&pinned_post_type=share

The only thing the Kremlin will say is that Ukraine was responsible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe, but now I’m reading that Poland scrambled jets.. We need more info and confirmation, which I’m sure will be coming.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592593686457888769

Haha, scrambling the jets is not confirmation of the source of the explosion. The photo is clearly staged. That is also separate from the explosion, although it tries to create a different impression in the minds of the uninitiated. That's the surest sign of PsyOps at play. SSDD.

 

[Discoducky]

Here's Przewodów, 50 miles from Lviv and 50 from Lutsk.

And closest missile strikes have been in Lviv and Lutsk in Oct to destroy power plants.

 

[Skipdd]

Haha, scrambling the jets is not confirmation of the source of the explosion. The photo is clearly staged. That is also separate from the explosion, although it tries to create a different impression in the minds of the uninitiated. That's the surest sign of PsyOps at play. SSDD.

I agree w you. But we are in a tinderbox situation, so everything needs to be carefully checked and as noted hopefully cool heads will prevail. Thankfully the decisions will be made outside of the twitterverse. Not a knock on that per se, it’s just such an amplifier easily used to further inflame anything.