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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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The US war in Afghanistan was obviously unwinnable around 2004. The US let bin Laden escape because they were drawing too many troops out for Iraq (illegally). After that the war was pretty much a pointless exercise.

The various colonial wars after WW II were also lost causes long before they ended. Vietnam was the last of those wars.
Yeah, maybe not super wise to ignore the enemy’s strategy and play into it exactly as they wanted…


Strategy​

This section needs to be updated. (August 2016)
In the disagreement over whether Al-Qaeda's objectives are religious or political, Mark Sedgwick describes Al-Qaeda's strategy as political in the immediate term but with ultimate aims that are religious.[138] On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabipublished extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Qaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[3][139] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages to rid the Ummah from all forms of oppression:

  1. Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on US soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
  2. Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
  3. Expand the conflict to neighboring countries and engage the US and its allies in a long war of attrition.
  4. Convert Al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against the US and countries allied with the US until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the July 7, 2005 London bombings.
  5. The US economy will finally collapse by 2020, under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places. This will lead to a collapse in the worldwide economic system, and lead to global political instability. This will lead to a global jihad led by Al-Qaeda, and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world.
 
Ahem, that depends on the definitions. In the loosest sense, Constantin Cantacuzino war the top Allied ace with 69 (possibly 77) victories, but that was fighting on both sides. One of the most colorful pilot characters in the whole war, the only guy that managed to fly a BF109 and a P51 in the same day because Foggia airbase couldn't refuel the Messerschmitt. To top it off -as it was his first time in a P51- he decided to do acrobatics and buzz the tower...

I vaguely remember something about the Bf-109 pilot. I believe he was Italian wasn't he?

Allied fuel would have been much higher octane than what the Germans used. The DB-600 series engines used 87 octane fuel and the US used 100 or 140 octane. But putting higher octane in an engine not tuned for it is kind of a waste, but it shouldn't hurt anything. The problem is putting lower octane fuel in an engine that is tuned for higher octane.

I believe Constantin Cantacuzino only scored a few victories against the Germans. The bulk of his victories were against the Russians.

Yeah, maybe not super wise to ignore the enemy’s strategy and play into it exactly as they wanted…


Strategy​

This section needs to be updated. (August 2016)
In the disagreement over whether Al-Qaeda's objectives are religious or political, Mark Sedgwick describes Al-Qaeda's strategy as political in the immediate term but with ultimate aims that are religious.[138] On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabipublished extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Qaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[3][139] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages to rid the Ummah from all forms of oppression:

  1. Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on US soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
  2. Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
  3. Expand the conflict to neighboring countries and engage the US and its allies in a long war of attrition.
  4. Convert Al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against the US and countries allied with the US until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the July 7, 2005 London bombings.
  5. The US economy will finally collapse by 2020, under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places. This will lead to a collapse in the worldwide economic system, and lead to global political instability. This will lead to a global jihad led by Al-Qaeda, and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world.

Didn't really age well. Especially #5.
 
Didn't really age well. Especially #5.
Re Al Queda, it is too soon to tell.

===============
By the way you are pondering when the Russian Army fell apart. In one sense that was in the period 2000-2020 when the various reforms of the Russian Army failed, hence the rise of Wagner et al, such that the force that invaded Ukraine in 2022 was really a coalition of several forces but all directed-ish from the Kremlin. In another sense we are seeing that the Russian Army has not fallen apart - they are still formulating plans and executing on their plans, often quite well. I suspect (but evidence is scanty) that the Russian Army may have gained firmer operational control over the various Russian forces than it had at the outset. Now it is a Darwinian struggle to see whether the middle-management of the Russian Army can grow faster than it is culled. Their Navy, Air Force, and Strategic Rocket Forces have all remained coherent competent organisations that have sought to support the Army, whilst not becoming so involved that they get consumed on the pyre, i.e. by definition they have not fallen apart.

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EU Parliament will vote on resolution determining Russia to be a state sponsor of terrorism. If passed then Russian assets can be seized for reparations.


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Swedish prosecutor confirms remains of explosives found at site of Nord Stream sabotage
The Swedish prosecutor who is leading the investigation into the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines has confirmed that the incident was sabotage, and said that traces of explosives have been found.

In a statement, prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said:

During the crime scene investigations that were carried out on site in the Baltic Sea, extensive seizures were made, and the area has been carefully documented. Analysis that has now been carried out shows traces of explosives on several of the foreign objects that were found. Advanced analysis work continues in order to be able to draw firmer conclusions about the incident.
The statement goes on to say that “the preliminary investigation is very complex and comprehensive” and that the work continues. The statement does not name any suspects. It also praises the cooperation of authorities in Sweden with those in other countries. It ends by saying that the prosecutor cannot provide further information at this time, and will not be providing any further access to the media.


text from Russia-Ukraine war live: remains of explosives found at Nord Stream pipeline blast site; 10m Ukrainians without power, says Zelenskiy
 
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The US war in Afghanistan was obviously unwinnable around 2004. The US let bin Laden escape because they were drawing too many troops out for Iraq (illegally). After that the war was pretty much a pointless exercise.

The various colonial wars after WW II were also lost causes long before they ended. Vietnam was the last of those wars.
You can't win a war when both sides hate your guts.
 
Re Al Queda, it is too soon to tell.

===============
By the way you are pondering when the Russian Army fell apart. In one sense that was in the period 2000-2020 when the various reforms of the Russian Army failed, hence the rise of Wagner et al, such that the force that invaded Ukraine in 2022 was really a coalition of several forces but all directed-ish from the Kremlin. In another sense we are seeing that the Russian Army has not fallen apart - they are still formulating plans and executing on their plans, often quite well. I suspect (but evidence is scanty) that the Russian Army may have gained firmer operational control over the various Russian forces than it had at the outset. Now it is a Darwinian struggle to see whether the middle-management of the Russian Army can grow faster than it is culled. Their Navy, Air Force, and Strategic Rocket Forces have all remained coherent competent organisations that have sought to support the Army, whilst not becoming so involved that they get consumed on the pyre, i.e. by definition they have not fallen apart.

We have a lot of fog of war here, but I don't think the army is doing very well. They are throwing large numbers of bodies at the Ukrainians in places like Pisky and Bahkmut, but their gains are tiny.

The Navy has done well as a missile launch organization, but they are otherwise kind of fumbling around. The air force has surprised many with their focus on penny packet attacks rather than any kind of large operations. An article I read back in April posited the air force has not mounted any large formations because they don't know how. They never practice formation flying and never operate in more than a few planes at a time. Their missile forces have done their job well, and the artillery was helping the army when they could do massive barrages, but that dropped off sharply when the HIMARs showed up. They can't build up large stores of ammunition for large artillery barrages anymore. Any concentrations of ammunition get taken out.

The retreat from Kherson was relatively well managed, but that was mostly orchestrated by rear area troops that hadn't been decimated. They still have pre-war trained combat engineers and military police to build pontoon bridges and direct the traffic around the bridge.

If the stories of Ukrainian beachheads on the left bank of the Dnipro upstream are true, the Russians have done an abysmal job of defending the shore of the river.

==============
EU Parliament will vote on resolution determining Russia to be a state sponsor of terrorism. If passed then Russian assets can be seized for reparations.


==============
Swedish prosecutor confirms remains of explosives found at site of Nord Stream sabotage
The Swedish prosecutor who is leading the investigation into the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines has confirmed that the incident was sabotage, and said that traces of explosives have been found.

In a statement, prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said:


The statement goes on to say that “the preliminary investigation is very complex and comprehensive” and that the work continues. The statement does not name any suspects. It also praises the cooperation of authorities in Sweden with those in other countries. It ends by saying that the prosecutor cannot provide further information at this time, and will not be providing any further access to the media.


text from Russia-Ukraine war live: remains of explosives found at Nord Stream pipeline blast site; 10m Ukrainians without power, says Zelenskiy

If they found remains they can determine who made the explosives at least. It's probably Russian. We'll probably know more when the Swedes release their report.
 
We have a lot of fog of war here, but I don't think the army is doing very well. They are throwing large numbers of bodies at the Ukrainians in places like Pisky and Bahkmut, but their gains are tiny.

The Navy has done well as a missile launch organization, but they are otherwise kind of fumbling around. The air force has surprised many with their focus on penny packet attacks rather than any kind of large operations. An article I read back in April posited the air force has not mounted any large formations because they don't know how. They never practice formation flying and never operate in more than a few planes at a time. Their missile forces have done their job well, and the artillery was helping the army when they could do massive barrages, but that dropped off sharply when the HIMARs showed up. They can't build up large stores of ammunition for large artillery barrages anymore. Any concentrations of ammunition get taken out.

The retreat from Kherson was relatively well managed, but that was mostly orchestrated by rear area troops that hadn't been decimated. They still have pre-war trained combat engineers and military police to build pontoon bridges and direct the traffic around the bridge.

If the stories of Ukrainian beachheads on the left bank of the Dnipro upstream are true, the Russians have done an abysmal job of defending the shore of the river.



If they found remains they can determine who made the explosives at least. It's probably Russian. We'll probably know more when the Swedes release their report.
No matter the analysis, would we really know? False flag? Russia being dumb? The US (or others) being devious? Not a lot of CCTV but I'm sure someone has images of surface activities.
 
The daily Russian casualties does not seem to beslowing greatly, despite the apparent lull. 400/day is 12,000/month or 146,000/year. Strewth.

1668789157520.png
 
Nobody, not even Russia I suspect, has a good idea of how many soldiers are killed in a given area. Many buildings or vehicles are destroyed with 10+ people inside and they aren't sending forensic techs in to do a detailed search for remains and do accurate counts. Many soldiers likely get shot and stumble off into the bushes to die. They will be finding remains in Ukraine for decades I suspect.

I seriously doubt Russia even has good accounting of deployments at this point.

If you just count confirmed dead, you are going to be way short of reality. Any estimate is going to vary greatly based on your assumptions.
 
A lot of civilian deaths won't show up in those numbers also. For instance, there were very few deaths directly from the Russian missile barrage the other day, but there will be numerous people who freeze or succumb to carbon monoxide poisoning as a result of the infrastructure damage.
I was just thinking about the Russian casualties. Ukrainian's probably keep an accurate casualty count for their military, but as you suggest, Ukrainian civilian casualties are sky high. Places like Mariupol there are mass graves with tens of thousands and the Ukrainians can't get there to even look at it. Between that, kidnappings, and migration, it'll be impossible to get an accurate toll of Ukrainian civilians killed.
 
We have a lot of fog of war here, but I don't think the army is doing very well. They are throwing large numbers of bodies at the Ukrainians in places like Pisky and Bahkmut, but their gains are tiny.

The Navy has done well as a missile launch organization, but they are otherwise kind of fumbling around. The air force has surprised many with their focus on penny packet attacks rather than any kind of large operations. An article I read back in April posited the air force has not mounted any large formations because they don't know how. They never practice formation flying and never operate in more than a few planes at a time. Their missile forces have done their job well, and the artillery was helping the army when they could do massive barrages, but that dropped off sharply when the HIMARs showed up. They can't build up large stores of ammunition for large artillery barrages anymore. Any concentrations of ammunition get taken out.

The retreat from Kherson was relatively well managed, but that was mostly orchestrated by rear area troops that hadn't been decimated. They still have pre-war trained combat engineers and military police to build pontoon bridges and direct the traffic around the bridge.

If the stories of Ukrainian beachheads on the left bank of the Dnipro upstream are true, the Russians have done an abysmal job of defending the shore of the river.



If they found remains they can determine who made the explosives at least. It's probably Russian. We'll probably know more when the Swedes release their report.
That was absolutely not orchestrated by rear area troops but by a new head of the army. It was done brilliantly- used mobilised to fill gaps and pulled crack troops off of defense, lots of posturing, used civilian as hostages when barging crack troops across river, good heavy equipment seems to have been pulled out, collaborating folk pulled out, etc. in the end it was just mobilized holding bag as everyone really important had been pulled. It was a huge effort and done well. They even remembered the raccoon. Hardly any Russians were left behind. It took An entire month.
 
That was absolutely not orchestrated by rear area troops but by a new head of the army. It was done brilliantly- used mobilised to fill gaps and pulled crack troops off of defense, lots of posturing, used civilian as hostages when barging crack troops across river, good heavy equipment seems to have been pulled out, collaborating folk pulled out, etc. in the end it was just mobilized holding bag as everyone really important had been pulled. It was a huge effort and done well. They even remembered the raccoon. Hardly any Russians were left behind. It took An entire month.

The commander wasn't out there building and maintaining bridges and directing traffic. It took some pre-war trained people on the ground to pull that off.

There were stories that there were about 12,000 troops left on the right bank when the evacuation ended. All part of a regular unit and not conscripts. Though at this point none of their units are very elite anymore. The losses to their most elite units in the early part of the war has forced them to fill out those units with new people while in combat.

A unit with a lot of veterans can absorb some green replacements while in active combat without suffering a big drop in effectiveness, but if the unit has taken significant losses it should be withdrawn and rebuilt rather than just feed in replacements. The VDV and marine units that were hit hard in the first few months of the war were given a large number of new troops with no time to fully integrate them into the units before being shoved back into combat.

Even before the war these units were below par compared to regular NATO units. ChrisO on Twitter had a long thread about a former VDV soldier who had gone back into the military a year or two before the war after being out a few years. He got out when they were still allowing soldiers to leave when their contracts were up and left the country to avoid being drawn back in.

It's worth reading how bad Russian training is, even in elite units, this is part 1 of 6
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

Another good insight into how poor the Russian army is comes from Perun's latest video on how lying corrupts an army. It's been posted here a few times, but you can find it quickly in a YouTube search. My partner is usually bored by Perun videos, but she found that one fascinating.

The withdrawal from Kherson was unusually well executed. Part of it was due to the large minefields the Russians left behind that the Ukrainians had to get around or through, plus the Ukrainians were being cautious about potential traps so they were moving slowly.

I wouldn't use it as an example of how good the Russian military is though. They have a severe morale problem. They probably had no problem of motivating troops to retreat. They have a lot of problems getting them to attack or even defend positions. The true quality of an army is in how it fights, not in how it retreats.
 
Are they getting from the same source? Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

View attachment 875949

Looks like, if you take the US estimate in all cases, its at least 230k+ people dead so far.
1668857439521.png


The Kiev Independent publishes the daily stats on losses by the Russian armed forces that are issued daily by the Ukraine government.

The Ukraine government does not publish stats on losses by the Ukraine armed forces, only on known Ukraine civilian casualties.

Little or no Russian-published data is plausible.

The Russian loss data that the Kiev Independent puts out correlates very well with the OSINT community's independent confirmation using open-source photo etc images. These concentrate on vehicle / asset losses, and there is extremely good correlation between various data sets, so my opinion is the Kiev Independent data can be trusted in that respect. The OSINT community has much the same opinion. My back-calculations suggest to me that the Russian personnel losses (deaths) are generally derived by the Ukraine allocating X deaths per MBT, Y deaths per IFV, Z deaths per artillery piece, etc, plus whatever extra knowledge they have coming in from their bottom-up military intel feeds. Given 'close-up' data sets of individual actions this appears to be coming up with reasonable statistical estimates for the aggregate Russian loss (death) rate.

The military wounded & captured rates for either side are not being publicly reported and I don't think anyone in the public arena has a good understanding of that.

Frankly I don't think that any Western intel (inc UK, France, USA) has a better set of overall data than either that being reported in the Ukraine Independent, or that originating from the OSINT community. Better data on specific significant assets, yes. Better data on the overall statistics, no.

(The wiki data is not that interesting or relevant at the moment, imho)