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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Thanks @Artful Dodger . I am actually curious as to the holdup in providing the longer range artillery/rockets. At this point that would seem the most efficient way to destroy the logistical requirements of the russians. Ukraine can clearly attack into russia today with just howitzers across a few hundred KM.

It has come out in the last week that the MiGs were not transferred to Ukraine because of politics with China. There may be similar diplomatic issues with giving the Ukrainians longer range weapons. I smell something like that going on here.

Why does NATO give a fig? russia is trying to blame nato because it is embarrassing to lose so badly to country cousins so it is for domestic consumption. They are blaming NATO in any case, who cares.

NATO countries have reason to constantly counter the narrative because they have Russian allies in their countries who will amplify Russian claims. Constantly shouting down those claims keeps the Quisling faction at bay.

That would be a 10:1 rate Russia:Ukraine. I think that has to be bit optimistic there.

Hard to say. It might be, it might not be. The Russian way of fighting has gotten a lot of their people killed for no good reason. Russian field medicine is still primitive which has contributed to a lot of dead. Russian protective equipment is non-existient or a joke.

On the other side the Ukrainians have been good about preserving their forces and only putting people in harms way when necessary, their protective equipment is on par with the best in the world, their field medicine is on par with NATO. Ukrainian losses were somewhat high when the Russians were blanketing their positions with artillery every day, but for most of the rest of the war Ukrainians have not been in positions where they were losing a lot of troops every day.

Since the Ukrainians have been tight lipped about their losses, nailing down any kind of exact number is impossible, but I think it's certain their losses are a fraction of Russian losses. It may not be 1/10 Russian losses, but it could be 1/5.

One data point we can compare is confirmed equipment losses. These are certainly only a fraction of actual equipment losses and it's possible that there are more pictures of Russian than Ukrainian losses, but I would think if the Russians have confirmation of Ukrainian losses they would want to publish them to help tilt the narrative their way. Now that the Russians are on the defensive they have fewer opportunities, but they do have drone footage.

Overall Russian equipment losses have been much higher than Ukrainian as far as we can tell. They started with more equipment, but what is showing up on the battlefield today is an indication of an army with a serious equipment problem. Russian vehicle designs have poorer survivablility than western designs. As the Ukrainians have begun replacing their ex-Soviet equipment with western equipment they have probably had better survival rates when vehicles are hit. The Ukrainians have also been more careful not to expose their vehicles to enemy fire as much as the Russians which has also contributed to lower losses.

I think a 1/10 loss rate is possible, but it may not be that big a ratio. We probably won't know until after the war when the Ukrainians admit their true losses.
 
They absolutely should because gazprom was cutting supplies through other terrestrial pipelines.
 
I think it goes both ways, the fact they are suing shows there is liability for breach of contract. Earlier it was argued by the side that said it couldn't have been Russia, that there wasn't such liability. The other part was already pointed out: part of that liability may also be from other pipelines. The fact that there remains deniability for the damaged pipeline certainly helps Russia's case, instead of them just outright saying to halt gas deliveries for no reason.
 
WRT the prospects of Ukraine accepting any less than total excision of all Russian influence in Ukraine:
First, Read Bloodlands by Snyder. It is not well written but is packed with fact, nauseously.
Second, Read either Dugin's 'The Fourth Political Theory' or 'Putin vs Putin' preferably both.
Third, think of how much Ukraine and the Ukraine have endured from the Russian Empire, Soviet Union, Russia and the Nazi's. People in Ukraine remember. People in Ukraine all understand that any form of 'negotiation' presents annihilation.
Fourth, reflect a little on current dominant Russian political theory. Then it becomes bloody well apparent that the Ukrainian's of the Third Step clearly understand that total annihilation will inevitably follow unless Russia is STOPPED.

Understanding all of this does present the inescapable conclusion that the only NATO course possible is prevention of Russian success in any way.

In my opinion we are now revisiting Stalin's approach, but from a much more devious and absolutist Putin/Prigozhin perspective aided by Zhuravlov, who practices annihilation as the only path to success. He destroyed Aleppo, one of the greatest ancient cities. This really means that none of these three care in least how many people they destroy on any side at all. Factually, they're all happy to send misfits, criminals and minorities to death in this war. That just reduces the cleansing they will do after they take the Ukraine. Remember, they do not think the Ukraine is a country, Ukrainian is a language ro that Ukrainians have a right to life at all.

The worst part of this is that those realities were obvious in 1990 and before, but we were all enamored by the urbane, collegial Putin. I personally spent nearly a decade helping promote that fantasy and helped establish new businesses there. I was an idiot! I did not even read Dugin or examine Putin's history. I ignored the lessons of Afghanistan and Syria, even though I was in both places at the same time.

Now I am ashamed of my own willful ignorance cultivated by generous money. Once I realized all that I have begun contributing that money to World Central Kitchen and several Ukrainian support groups.

The personal rancor I have left is for things such as Elon Musk's entirely ignorant and arrogant proposal. I am trying to keep that from tainting my Tesla and SpaceX optimism. That's is a stretch since I cannot help from thing about Ferdinand and Ferry Porsche and so many others. Then Bill Boeing. That all leads me to a conundrum that soon of you might help to solve. What responsibility do we have when our leading lights begin to advocate or assist morally reprehensible things?

That is a serious question.
Serious question = serious answer. With no disrespect to @JRP3, whose opinions I always value, the answer is simple, you have to fight against them. In so far as this relates to Elon, it means challenging him. At this point I don’t see it as selling my stock. Elon’s mind can be changed. Ditto others’ opinions. And where they can’t, take other actions to ensure the right outcome.

I have seen the tweets referencing the Auschwitz Memorial exhibit. I’ve visited a concentration camp. We see, daily, the brutal disregard for life that the Russians exhibit as they seek to subjugate Ukraine. RUSSIA HAS TO BE STOPPED. And held to account.
 
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Things are warming up for russia in Z province. If I could spell it I would. Tokmak-Polohy- huges losses according to

Arestovych and Feygin​


I read the translated transcript or listen via wartranslated.com. 500 dead and 50 vehicles lost by russia. There have been several attacks in this direction by Ukraine. Interesting.
 
If you recall one of the factors may have been Russia/Gazprom putting in place the factual basis to use a force majeure argument for not fulfilling the gas contracts. Not having a force majeure argument on the legal table makes Gazprom Inc likely liable for very heavy financial consequences (think bankruptcy and seizure of all non-Russian assets) in the likely outcome case of the commercial litigation that was in any case coming.

But in order to advance force majeure as an argement force does actually need to be deployed. Hence the red-on-red sabotage of their own Nordstream pipelines.
 
RUSI : Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has provided an invaluable opportunity to
assess the capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) and the implications
of a range of capabilities for modern warfare. Many publicly made judgements on these issues
have lacked supporting data or insight into Ukrainian operational planning and decisionmaking.
To ensure that those drawing lessons from the conflict do so from a solid foundation,
this report seeks to outline key lessons, based on the operational data accumulated by the
Ukrainian General Staff, from the fighting between February and July 2022. As the underlying
source material for much of this report cannot yet be made public, this should be understood
as testimony rather than as an academic study. Given the requirements for operational security,
it is necessarily incomplete.


 
Things are warming up for russia in Z province. If I could spell it I would. Tokmak-Polohy- huges losses according to

Arestovych and Feygin​


I read the translated transcript or listen via wartranslated.com. 500 dead and 50 vehicles lost by russia. There have been several attacks in this direction by Ukraine. Interesting.
I've not seen reports of attacks in the Tokmak direction, though I have long expected them to come. Where are you seeing them ?
 
I've not seen reports of attacks in the Tokmak direction, though I have long expected them to come. Where are you seeing them ?
 
Do you mean* "compelling viewing"? Or perhaps "compulsory viewing"?

*Ignore this question if you're not a native english speaker. @ggr
Any of those apply, including 'compulsive'

and it's in Merriam-Webster too ;)
 
That would be a 10:1 rate Russia:Ukraine. I think that has to be bit optimistic there.

Depends if they're comparing KIA figures. Russia has a deplorable WIA/KIA ratio in 2022, primarily due to the almost complete lack of medivac / triage facilities. If you're a Russian Moblik, or a convict, you're more likely to get a Russian bullet than an bandage. "Bring your own tampons to treat bullet wounds", they're told. Barbaric.

Good chance that many of the WIA troops are the victims of self-inflicted wounds, too. Russian has blocked internet searches for "how to break you arm".
 
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Serious question = serious answer. With no disrespect to @JRP3, whose opinions I always value, the answer is simple, you have to fight against them. In so far as this relates to Elon, it means challenging him. At this point I don’t see it as selling my stock. Elon’s mind can be changed. Ditto others’ opinions. And where they can’t, take other actions to ensure the right outcome.

I have seen the tweets referencing the Auschwitz Memorial exhibit. I’ve visited a concentration camp. We see, daily, the brutal disregard for life that the Russians exhibit as they seek to subjugate Ukraine. RUSSIA HAS TO BE STOPPED. And held to account.
Thank you for your insight. Despite having academic qualifications that included numerous ethics components I have perhaps too often failed to apply those principles to my own decisions. As John Stewart Mill said in 1867:
“Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing. He is not a good man who, without a protest, allows wrong to be committed in his name, and with the means which he helps to supply, because he will not trouble himself to use his mind on the subject.”

This makes me advance everything I personally can do to advance support for Ukraine and halt Russian aggression everywhere. One small part of that is to implore Elon Musk to advocate for justice rather than just support, and thinking before posting. Helping to influence him is difficult, particularly because he has been subjected to withering criticism for doing wonderful things. Not least among them has been providing Starlink to Ukraine.

These posts may stray off topic because they do openly advocate for defense of Ukraine while equating 'The Ukraine' positions as inherently wrong and destructive. The defense of truth should never be 'off-topic'.

One note on Russian planning:

Whether small or large that is tangible evidence of Russia's intention to destroy, rather than simply conquer.
 
Any of those apply, including 'compulsive'

and it's in Merriam-Webster too ;)
Please @Dangerous Fish understand the words! 'Compulsive' connotes 'excessive', 'useless' and 'obsessive'. @Artful Dodger was simply trying to help you from converting your linked items from important to trivial, from useful to useless.

With your words you have caused thoughtful people to ignore whatever you were hoping to say.