Russian airbase Engles-2 attacked
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
There was sort of a plan, but like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it all went sideways when the Iraqis didn't behave the way the US thought they should and instead behaved like people whose country had been invaded by idiots who had no clue how to secure the peace and didn't send enough troops to do the job.
For a successful occupation, the invading army needs 1 troop per 50 native population, if the open fighting is done and all areas are secure. History has shown that with a troop level below that, there are not enough troops around to stop an insurgency before it gets going.
Ukraine can survive without Bakhmut, but it's helpful for them to hold it. For Russia there is no gain in capturing it without Irpin too.
I also have friends and family in the oil business. It is possible that the oil companies won't see it as worth it to develop Crimea by the time things have settled down to do so, but I think as the demand for oil declines there will be a big push from the developed world for "ethically sourced" oil and gas over oil from countries with more questionable records on human rights and dodgy politics. It will also be a way to leverage those countries to conform to western human right standards rather than ignore pleas to behave better while selling all the oil they can pump.
If Ukraine continues to merge into the European world and leave the Russian world behind with ever increasing levels of personal freedom and reductions in corruption, Ukraine will be one of the "good guys" to buy oil from as opposed to Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.
I don't expect Ukraine to have millions of acres of solar farms. Their land is too valuable growing grain for the developing world. Someplace like Morocco or Australia can afford to plaster solar panels across their countryside because a lot of their land is not economically valuable for anything else right now.
Another problem with solar panels in agricultural areas is they panels get plastered with dust and lose efficiency. My sister put solar panels on her house she built and a year later they were producing less than half the power because of the dust from agriculture in the area (she lives in Bakersfield, CA). She said she'd have to be up there once a month washing them to keep the efficiency up.
I expect the solar farms being installed in the western San Joaquin Valley in California are going to have the same problems.
I did say that it will probably be viable for short flights and short distance ships, but it is not viable for any distance.
I looked up the energy expected from ammonia fuel cells. It looks like the energy contained is about 1/2 that of fossil fuels. Ammonia has around 16 KWH/US Gal and fossil fuels range from about 32 to 37 KWH/Gal depending on the type. Ammonia fuel cells are still under development and aren't ready for production. It may be 10 years before they are entering production.
I don't know what sort of efficiencies they are going to see from ammonia fuel celled craft, nobody has gotten to the point of testing. If it isn't 2X fossil fuels, or more to offset any added weight for the fuel cells it isn't going to be all that viable for long distance transport. If electric vehicles take off for land transport in the next 10 years, there will be less demand for fossil fuels which will make fossil fuels even more cost competitive with any alternatives coming along.
Ammonia for Power: a literature review – Ammonia Energy Association
In my earlier post I made the point that there are technologies on the shelf today to replace most land transport with electrics. We don't have the manufacturing capacity to do it and the rate of turnover for ICE is currently low and dropping every year. The average age for a car on US roads is 12 years. That means half the cars on US roads are older than most of the Tesla Roadsters on the road. Most people in the US can't afford a new car and buy used cars. The used car market doesn't have many EVs now and likely won't for years to come.
The draw back to all alternative energy sources is that they are all very low density sources. The energy per acre from a solar farm or a wind farm is much lower than what you could get from building a natural gas power plant on the same site, or 1 acre of nuclear power. Areas with low population densities, a lot of land that isn't worth much, and either a lot of sunlight or a lot of wind could probably get to 100% renewables, but there are many places in the world where that isn't feasible. They will either have to import much of their electricity or will resort to some sort of electricity they can generate.
We can spread out the electricity demand and use peaking units more to delay needing more electric capacity, but a lot of these ideas like ammonia fuel cells are going to require a lot more electricity input, which means increasing capacity over what we have today.
I think next generation nuclear power is the answer, but the public is wary of nuclear power. High profile accidents like Fukushima and the dangers at the nuclear plant in Ukraine have increased public resistance to nuclear power, even though there are some new designs that are vastly safer than the ones out there now.
I have caught flak from both sides on this issue. People like my sister (petroleum Geologist) who normally has a great imagination can't see alternatives catching on at all, while others think alternatives are going to kill off fossil fuels in a very short time. I'm in the middle. We will see a decline in demand for fossil fuels as alternatives come online and we convert out vehicle fleets, but I think the transition is going to take longer than the alternative fans think it's going to take. There are 8 billion people on this world and converting the energy usage is going to take time. Almost all that 8 billion are touched by fossil fuels now, only the poorest slice of the world uses very little. And as that poorest slice improves their lot, they will be using more fossil fuels before the new technologies get to their corner of the world.
Hans Rosling had a presentation about population growth. In one he talked about the forms of transportation people use as their gain wealth. It goes walking->bicycle->motorcycle->car. In places where there is little electricity, they are going to be riding ICE motorcycles and driving ICE cars until reliable electricity gets to their corner of the world. Many of them will be the cast offs from the developed world as we electrify.
We'll get there if we don't end up killing ourselves first. It's just going to take longer than the optimists think.
The proposal is for dual fuel engines for ships that can burn diesel or ammonia.
Cargo ships are a tricky case.
I think EVs replacing ICE is a walk in the park.
Solar wind and storage can run the grid.
Industrial heat has a number of good alternatives which at least reduce the amount of gas we need.
Livestock has alternatives like precision fermentation which may eat into some demand.
The used car market is just the new car market 10-15 years later on. 10 years ago, not many EVs were being sold.
IMO it is a strange time to be fighting a war about fossil fuels.
Throw up some solar pannels a battery and some small electric mopeds that is a cheap and fast solution. Electric mini buses are the next step up.
The developing world will never run an electricty grid 100 miles to serve a population of around 1,000 people.
Many people in developing countries have mobile phones, not many have a landline.
It is possible to skip a generation.
Last edited:
As you note Industrial heat is an area ripe for innovation; rondo is a firm I posted about in @petit_bateau excellent energy news thread- they have a energy/heat battery for industrial users.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
"Don't Panic". Despite being an hour, I can't say enough good things about this presentation. He's not only a statistician with a whole pile of relevant information in and around population - he's also a master story teller. Being able to tell a story, really really well, using data and statistics -- love it
I think I need to rewatch it ....
This could be a big deal, these are the bombers that were carrying the cruise missiles. I wonder if they hit the bombers, crews, or missiles, or all of it?
petit_bateau
Active Member
If that attack is by a long-range drone (a big if) rather than one of the several other candidates, or even a genuine accident, then it suggests that Ukraine has something with an approx 800-km + range. If so that pretty much puts all the relevant areas of Russia at risk. Perhaps the operational testing phase of that new 1000-km Ukraine weapon has begun.
УкÑаÑнÑÑкий дÑон-камÑкадзе ÑÑпÑÑно пÑойÑов Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑванÑ
ÐÐ "УкÑобоÑонпÑом" пÑовÑв Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ ÑÑпÑÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑÐ²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑкого ÑдаÑного безпÑлоÑника з далÑнÑÑÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑиÑÑÑÑ ÐºÑломеÑÑÑв. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
www.ukrinform.ua
===============
As @MC3OZ and @nativewolf points out the shipping proposals are to dual-fuel with ammonia. A suitable diesel engine can switch between ammonia and bunker fuel. If you keep an eye on the daily news thread you'll observe that Maersk et al have already ordered a new fleet of these particular ships, and that the various global (green-ish*) ammonia production & bunkerage hubs are now selected and being built. I actually discussed this with the relevant people several years ago when they were making their various decisions and I compared some of my modelling results with them, and now that element of the plan has come to fruition so it is possible to more openly discuss it in public. The other element of the long-range cargo transport plan is to shift a lot of freight onto trans-continental rail, and that is also making good progress. The third element of the long-range cargo plan is to simply stop transporting oil/gas/coal, which will dramatically reduce overall shipping volumes - and since we are now probably going through peak-fossils I think we'll see that cutting in to the shipping fleet in the coming decade. This is all going quite quickly now that LFP is on the market. It is all about the cells. Anyway this is why I include relevant rail & sea freight news in the daily energy news clippings thread.
* flavours and colours vary
From the timings in the video and assuming what passed overhead was what caused the explosion, that would put the speed of the weapon around 550mph, so too fast to be a drone I think. That's cruise missile velocity.
petit_bateau
Active Member
That might be consistent with some of the air intake details that are visible on the teaser photos that Ukroboronprom have released, or imight be that the speed of the terminal dive is different than the transit speed.
УкÑаÑнÑÑкий дÑон-камÑкадзе ÑÑпÑÑно пÑойÑов Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑванÑ
ÐÐ "УкÑобоÑонпÑом" пÑовÑв Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ ÑÑпÑÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑÐ²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑкого ÑдаÑного безпÑлоÑника з далÑнÑÑÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑиÑÑÑÑ ÐºÑломеÑÑÑв. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
www.ukrinform.ua
ÐалÑнÑÑÑÑ 1000 кÑломеÑÑÑв: УкÑобоÑонпÑом планÑÑ Ð·Ð°Ð²ÐµÑÑиÑи анонÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑозÑÐ¾Ð±ÐºÑ Ð´Ð¾ кÑнÑÑ ÑокÑ
У ÐÐ «Ð£ÐºÑобоÑонпÑом» ÑозÑаÑовÑÑÑÑ Ð·Ð°Ð²ÐµÑÑиÑи до кÑнÑÑ ÑÑого ÑÐ¾ÐºÑ Ð½Ð°Ð¿ÐµÑÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑÐºÑ ÑозÑÐ¾Ð±ÐºÑ Ð· далÑнÑÑÑÑ Ñ 1000 км Ñа Ð²Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ñ Ð±Ð¾Ð¹Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ñ ÑаÑÑини Ñ 75 кг. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
www.ukrinform.ua
Ukroboronprom is developing weapons with a range of 1,000 km
Against the background of Russian air attacks, the Ukroboronprom State Concern announced the development of Ukrainian weapons with a target range of up to a thousand kilometers.
mil.in.ua
Listening to the video, it sounds pretty low and fast passing overhead. If they have developed a 500mph missile capable of flying low for 1000Km that's going to be very handy if they can build enough of them.That might be consistent with some of the air intake details that are visible on the teaser photos that Ukroboronprom have released, or imight be that the speed of the terminal dive is different than the transit speed.
УкÑаÑнÑÑкий дÑон-камÑкадзе ÑÑпÑÑно пÑойÑов Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑванÑ
ÐÐ "УкÑобоÑонпÑом" пÑовÑв Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ ÑÑпÑÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑÐ²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑкого ÑдаÑного безпÑлоÑника з далÑнÑÑÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑиÑÑÑÑ ÐºÑломеÑÑÑв. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
ÐалÑнÑÑÑÑ 1000 кÑломеÑÑÑв: УкÑобоÑонпÑом планÑÑ Ð·Ð°Ð²ÐµÑÑиÑи анонÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑозÑÐ¾Ð±ÐºÑ Ð´Ð¾ кÑнÑÑ ÑокÑ
У ÐÐ «Ð£ÐºÑобоÑонпÑом» ÑозÑаÑовÑÑÑÑ Ð·Ð°Ð²ÐµÑÑиÑи до кÑнÑÑ ÑÑого ÑÐ¾ÐºÑ Ð½Ð°Ð¿ÐµÑÐµÐ´Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð½ÑÐ¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑÐºÑ ÑозÑÐ¾Ð±ÐºÑ Ð· далÑнÑÑÑÑ Ñ 1000 км Ñа Ð²Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ñ Ð±Ð¾Ð¹Ð¾Ð²Ð¾Ñ ÑаÑÑини Ñ 75 кг. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
Ukroboronprom is developing weapons with a range of 1,000 km
Against the background of Russian air attacks, the Ukroboronprom State Concern announced the development of Ukrainian weapons with a target range of up to a thousand kilometers.
Russia saw Ukraine as competition for their natural gas market. Europe could have switched to buying gas from Ukrainian fields and except for the countries getting gas through Nordstream, they would be delivered through the same pipelines. Russia's entire economy hinges on their fossil fuel sales. They were taking out the competition.
Russia has shown itself to be somewhat short sighted.
"Don't Panic". Despite being an hour, I can't say enough good things about this presentation. He's not only a statistician with a whole pile of relevant information in and around population - he's also a master story teller. Being able to tell a story, really really well, using data and statistics -- love it
I think I need to rewatch it ....
He makes a strong case for the world population stabilizing around 10 billion. I think he's probably right about that, but I don't think the world can sustain 10 billion long term.
Unless a plane crashed on take off, which might be possible (the sound heard could have been something else and coincidental), the crew would have been nowhere near the plane on the ground. Crews only show up when it's time to take off after the ground crews have done everything to prepare the plane. A good pilot will do a quick ground inspection before climbing aboard for flying, but the time spent hanging around the plane on the ground is going to be short.
If that attack is by a long-range drone (a big if) rather than one of the several other candidates, or even a genuine accident, then it suggests that Ukraine has something with an approx 800-km + range. If so that pretty much puts all the relevant areas of Russia at risk. Perhaps the operational testing phase of that new 1000-km Ukraine weapon has begun.
View attachment 881619
УкÑаÑнÑÑкий дÑон-камÑкадзе ÑÑпÑÑно пÑойÑов Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑванÑ
ÐÐ "УкÑобоÑонпÑом" пÑовÑв Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ ÑÑпÑÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑÐ²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑкого ÑдаÑного безпÑлоÑника з далÑнÑÑÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑиÑÑÑÑ ÐºÑломеÑÑÑв. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
It could be. Unfortunately if the Ukrainians do have a 1000 km weapon, they probably have very few of them.
My partner saw something yesterday that during the cold war many Soviet ballistic missiles were made in Ukraine and the Ukrainians still have the tooling for them. They were thinking about starting up production again and putting conventional warheads and modern guidance systems on them.
It sounds like the technology is further along than I surmised from the article. Making any kind of fuel like ammonia is going to take more energy input than you get back out so the only economic way to make it is with a renewable energy source that is basically an oversupply from local needs. We will get to that point in some areas eventually, but there are few places now that over produce renewable energy. I heard about one of the outer Scottish islands that had too much wind energy and they were making hydrogen with the excess, but that's the only place I know of.
I haven't been following the energy thread. Only so many hours in the day between the day job and doing most of the chores around here. My partner has long COVID and trying to work three jobs. Not much energy left for housework, so it falls on me.
petit_bateau
Active Member
The hydrogen production cost numbers for that Scottish island were so embarassingly high they didn't include them in the papers or the presentations. They could not avoid them in the questions afterwards though, instead they simply ran off the stage and didn't hang around for coffee afterwards either.
Monash University in Australia has a way of making ammonia very efficiently via a process similar to charging a battery.
They have spun off a start up to try to commercialize the tech.
The initial product is intended to be a unit the size of a refrigerator which allows farmers to make their own fertilizer with solar electricity.
It is slower and lower volume, but highly efficient.
Of course tech like this isn't 100% proven, but if it works out Australia and countries with similar solar resources cluld make a lot of ammonia, essentially using sunlight and water. Nitrogen is absorbed from the air.
Sorry to hear about your partner, I hope she makes a full recovery ASAP.
It is all about battery cells. It’s why Tesla has, to date, not had competition. There were no Tesla killers as only Panasonic/Tesla had a GF.If that attack is by a long-range drone (a big if) rather than one of the several other candidates, or even a genuine accident, then it suggests that Ukraine has something with an approx 800-km + range. If so that pretty much puts all the relevant areas of Russia at risk. Perhaps the operational testing phase of that new 1000-km Ukraine weapon has begun.
View attachment 881619
УкÑаÑнÑÑкий дÑон-камÑкадзе ÑÑпÑÑно пÑойÑов Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑванÑ
ÐÐ "УкÑобоÑонпÑом" пÑовÑв Ð½Ð¸Ð·ÐºÑ ÑÑпÑÑÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð¸Ð¿ÑобÑÐ²Ð°Ð½Ñ ÑкÑаÑнÑÑкого ÑдаÑного безпÑлоÑника з далÑнÑÑÑÑ ÑÑÐ°Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð½Ñ Ð½Ð° ÑиÑÑÑÑ ÐºÑломеÑÑÑв. â УкÑÑнÑоÑм.
===============
As @MC3OZ and @nativewolf points out the shipping proposals are to dual-fuel with ammonia. A suitable diesel engine can switch between ammonia and bunker fuel. If you keep an eye on the daily news thread you'll observe that Maersk et al have already ordered a new fleet of these particular ships, and that the various global (green-ish*) ammonia production & bunkerage hubs are now selected and being built. I actually discussed this with the relevant people several years ago when they were making their various decisions and I compared some of my modelling results with them, and now that element of the plan has come to fruition so it is possible to more openly discuss it in public. The other element of the long-range cargo transport plan is to shift a lot of freight onto trans-continental rail, and that is also making good progress. The third element of the long-range cargo plan is to simply stop transporting oil/gas/coal, which will dramatically reduce overall shipping volumes - and since we are now probably going through peak-fossils I think we'll see that cutting in to the shipping fleet in the coming decade. This is all going quite quickly now that LFP is on the market. It is all about the cells. Anyway this is why I include relevant rail & sea freight news in the daily energy news clippings thread.
* flavours and colours vary
Now we can reliably predict real competition will arrive, at least the potential arrives.
But I digress the attack this morning is big news. Russia is not making more strategic bombers right now. How many do they risk?
Jupiter Ionics: Global leaders in green ammonia
Our patented modular technology will produce carbon-neutral, green ammonia at local, regional or national scale. It will help secure food supply chains, promote sustainable agriculture and transport, and enable the export of renewable energy.
jupiterionics.com
Thanks for posting that @MC3OZ , this is the company I guess
Another large missile attack by Russia today. Ukranian air defence claiming they shot down 60 out 70 missiles fired at Kyiv, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
At least making hydrogen from renewables is not very economically viable. The hydrogen fuel cell cars are mostly fueled with hydrogen made with natural gas because it's a lot cheaper.
Until we have more renewables than we need, it's going to be economically marginal at best to turn that energy into anything portable.
It still takes more energy in than you get out, but charging li-ion cells can be fairly efficient. The problem they still face for the foreseeable future is that any way of making portable energy out of renewables is going to compete with the local demands. Right now every KWH of solar they use to make ammonia is a KWH that has to be replaced with fossil fuels on the local grid.
It's going to be awhile until more than a few local places are going to have an abundance of renewables. The switch to renewables is a steep engineering challenge. We have the technologies on the shelf, which is a huge benefit, but it's going to take a lot of manufacturing to achieve the goals.
First enough solar and wind need to be built to replace the regular fossil fuel energy plants in an area. At this point the fossil fuel plants will still be online for peaking units until step 2 is complete, which is installing enough battery storage and enough extra capacity to provide enough energy throughout the day as well as some extra capacity to get the area through a shortage due to cloudy weather or low winds. This is all happening during a period when demand for electricity will be going up as transportation converts from fossil fuels to electricity.
Some of that growth can be offset with off hours charging and such, but the demand will be going up.
Only when all the local grid needs are met will serious consideration of making something like ammonia from the excess electrify can be considered. Having this extra capacity also serves as an insurance policy if there is an extended period of low wind or cloudy weather. But this stage is a point where the electricity generating capacity from renewables is more than what it is today. They have replaced all the fossil fuel plants and added enough capacity to cover the growth in demand.
Technically it's doable, but it's going to take time to make all the elements, pay for them, and get them installed. This is going to be happening all over the world at the same time so demand for all these elements is going to be high for decades.
My point in this whole discussion is not that it isn't possible, but that it's going to take longer than the optimists think it's going to take. It's the largest infrastructure project the world has ever taken on and it's happening almost everywhere at once. We are currently only manufacturing a tiny fraction of what we will eventually need. The goal is to replace both a transportation and energy infrastructure that took more than a century to evolve. Those two industries are at the foundations of all modern society. It is inevitable that we will end up running into some problems we will need to solve as we start getting to scale as well as just the challenges of ramping up manufacturing for all these things.
I saw a video of a Geppard knocking one down. 10 still got through, but 60 out of 70 is pretty good. The Russians are trying to force the Ukrainians to deplete their AA missile supplies. The west needs to make sure that doesn't happen.
Putin reportedly drove a car across the Kerch bridge into Crimea today. Sure would have been nice if the Ukrainians had been able to roll out the welcome wagon. Even if it was just his body double.
