Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

No doubt, but if historical monarchies are anything to go by, this sort of behavior has unwanted side-effects. And Putin is nominally an elected dictator. I'm curious what his 'electorate' makes of his KGB persona. MRGA in action, or a Rasputin/Stalin rose from the dead ?

Historical monarchies didn't have the 'surveillance machine' that modern technology enables. They also didn't have the 'dissent suppression abilities' that modern technology enables. But hopefully this war will create enough dissent inside of Russia. Enough so that even this Russian regime won't be able to remain in power.

 

[wdolson]

Cognitive dissonance. Elon helped Ukraine win the war with starlink etc, clearly he is not pro Russia. He just is a rationalist who is okay with being publicly wrong sometimes in order to be less wrong over time. He proposed a plan for what he thought would be best for Ukraine and the world long term. Basically the plan was that Ukraine gives up Crimea and the Donbas region get's UN control and later an referendum to decide their fate. Sure that sucks for Ukraine, but does it suck more than extending the war? Hundreds of Ukrainians are dying every day, more are getting injured, millions are without power, GDP is down 30% etc. Maybe one more year of war and they can reclaim Crimea, but at what costs? Elon did his estimate and thought it came up on the side that his proposal was correct. He might be wrong, that happens, but he is clearly pro-Ukraine.

Elon's proposal was right out of Neville Chamberlain's playbook. Putin wants to put the Russian empire back together. Allow him to keep any gains he's made in Ukraine and he'll be back after he's rebuilt his army. The world can't afford any other outcome. The Ukrainians know this which is why they are willing to continue suffering until the job is done.

A very strong majority of the Ukrainian people are willing to sacrifice to get every last Russian troop off Ukrainian territory. Zelensky would be removed and his replacement would continue the war if Zelensky made any hint that he was willing to compromise with Putin.

This is another case of Elon completely failing to read the room.

Biden and most of the other leaders in NATO are taking the right approach: let Ukraine decide for themselves when the war is over.

 

[SageBrush]

The Ukrainians know this which is why they are willing to continue suffering until the job is done.

Perhaps, although I admit to a somewhat different presumption:

Goal #1 is survival, which unequivocally means winning the war. There is no 'negotiated settlement' with Russia that does not include mass extermination/deportation and subsequent slave state. The thing is though, a defeat of Russia means the Russians are kicked out of Donbas, and at that point Crimea is relatively easy to recapture so the military differences between a small Ukraine Vs a 2013 Ukraine Vs early 2022 Ukraine are very small.

If Russia had actually performed a relatively bloodless surgical strike only in the Donbas and not played the barbarian Mongol, I think they would have had a good chance of succeeding and not have the West intercede. Instead they raised the stakes to survival Vs Imperial expansion with mass gruesome extermination. Russia took UKR plea-bargaining off the table forever.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Allegedly. This is a Google translate from the original text in Swedish. It's about two hours old as of now. I can't find any reporting on this in English. According to the text the decision hasn't been made, but plans exist...

"BREAKING: Kremlin plans state bankruptcy - intends to convert Russians' checking accounts into war bonds​

[...] 2022-12-28 16:05

In a letter from the Russian Central Bank, it appears that the Kremlin is planning a de facto Russian state bankruptcy. Plans are being made to convert the Russians' account balances at Russian banks into war bonds. From the context, it is therefore not surprising that there is a withdrawal rush in Russia right now and that the public is trying to withdraw their savings as cash. [..."

Source (in Swedish):

Kreml planerar statsbankrutt - avser konvertera ryssarnas kontopengar till krigsobligationer (fejk)

I en skrivelse från ryska Centralbanken framgår det att Kreml planerar en de facto rysk statsbankrutt. Man planerar för att konvertera ryssarnas kontosaldon hos ryska banker till krigsobligationer. Ur sammanhanget är det alltså inte konstigt att det pågår en uttagsanstormning i Ryssland just nu och

cornucopia.se

 

[Doggydogworld]

Allegedly. This is a Google translate from the original text in Swedish. It's about two hours old as of now. I can't find any reporting on this in English. According to the text the decision hasn't been made, but plans exist...

"BREAKING: Kremlin plans state bankruptcy - intends to convert Russians' checking accounts into war bonds​

[...] 2022-12-28 16:05

In a letter from the Russian Central Bank, it appears that the Kremlin is planning a de facto Russian state bankruptcy. Plans are being made to convert the Russians' account balances at Russian banks into war bonds. From the context, it is therefore not surprising that there is a withdrawal rush in Russia right now and that the public is trying to withdraw their savings as cash. [..."

Source (in Swedish):

Kreml planerar statsbankrutt - avser konvertera ryssarnas kontopengar till krigsobligationer (fejk)

I en skrivelse från ryska Centralbanken framgår det att Kreml planerar en de facto rysk statsbankrutt. Man planerar för att konvertera ryssarnas kontosaldon hos ryska banker till krigsobligationer. Ur sammanhanget är det alltså inte konstigt att det pågår en uttagsanstormning i Ryssland just nu och

cornucopia.se

Converting accounts into war bonds would be both pointless and stupid. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina is no idiot, it's hard to imagine this happening under her watch.

 

[petit_bateau]

Insurers end war-risk cover for shipping across Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
Move comes as a result of reinsurers exiting the region in the face of heavy financial losses
It is the first time reinsurers have had an opportunity to cancel coverage for clients since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, given that most contracts run on a 12-month basis and renew on 1 January.

Insurers end war-risk cover for shipping in Ukraine invasion zone

Move comes as a result of reinsurers exiting the region in the face of heavy financial losses

www.theguardian.com

 

[wdolson]

Perhaps, although I admit to a somewhat different presumption:

Goal #1 is survival, which unequivocally means winning the war. There is no 'negotiated settlement' with Russia that does not include mass extermination/deportation and subsequent slave state. The thing is though, a defeat of Russia means the Russians are kicked out of Donbas, and at that point Crimea is relatively easy to recapture so the military differences between a small Ukraine Vs a 2013 Ukraine Vs early 2022 Ukraine are very small.

If Russia had actually performed a relatively bloodless surgical strike only in the Donbas and not played the barbarian Mongol, I think they would have had a good chance of succeeding and not have the West intercede. Instead they raised the stakes to survival Vs Imperial expansion with mass gruesome extermination. Russia took UKR plea-bargaining off the table forever.

If Russia had escalated to a slightly larger war instead of a full on invasion, they might have gotten away with it. They underestimated the west's political ability to counter them. In the dealings between Russia and Germany, both sides thought that they had the upper hand. Russia thought Germany would keep playing ball with Russia because Germany would take a serious financial hit from cutting ties and Germany has been all about financial stability since WW II. Germany thought Russia would never put it's cash cow with Germany at risk, nor cut off the supply of German technology to Russia.

Germany turned out to have more resolve than Russia anticipated and Germany was surprised Russia was willing to blow up their financial and tech dealings with Germany.

Allegedly. This is a Google translate from the original text in Swedish. It's about two hours old as of now. I can't find any reporting on this in English. According to the text the decision hasn't been made, but plans exist...

"BREAKING: Kremlin plans state bankruptcy - intends to convert Russians' checking accounts into war bonds​

[...] 2022-12-28 16:05

In a letter from the Russian Central Bank, it appears that the Kremlin is planning a de facto Russian state bankruptcy. Plans are being made to convert the Russians' account balances at Russian banks into war bonds. From the context, it is therefore not surprising that there is a withdrawal rush in Russia right now and that the public is trying to withdraw their savings as cash. [..."

Source (in Swedish):

Kreml planerar statsbankrutt - avser konvertera ryssarnas kontopengar till krigsobligationer (fejk)

I en skrivelse från ryska Centralbanken framgår det att Kreml planerar en de facto rysk statsbankrutt. Man planerar för att konvertera ryssarnas kontosaldon hos ryska banker till krigsobligationer. Ur sammanhanget är det alltså inte konstigt att det pågår en uttagsanstormning i Ryssland just nu och

cornucopia.se

If it's only available from one source, it is either a false rumor that will likely fade away or somebody got a scoop. We'll know one way or the other in the coming days.

All of Russia's options are bad from here. That's one of the things sanctions do, they limit a government's ability to make contingency plans and forces them into having to decide which is the least bad decision.

Insurers end war-risk cover for shipping across Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
Move comes as a result of reinsurers exiting the region in the face of heavy financial losses
It is the first time reinsurers have had an opportunity to cancel coverage for clients since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, given that most contracts run on a 12-month basis and renew on 1 January.

Insurers end war-risk cover for shipping in Ukraine invasion zone

Move comes as a result of reinsurers exiting the region in the face of heavy financial losses

www.theguardian.com

If this is affecting all ships leaving Russian ports even outside the war zone that's probably going to have an impact on their oil exports.

Article from Europmaiden Press about Russia doubling down on their plans. They are banking on the west losing interest in what they are doing so they can rebuild and come back to take Ukraine, and Moldova.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12...nd-the-only-thing-that-can-stop-this-opinion/

Russia needs to be neutralized forever.

 

[dhrivnak]

Sure, he can amplify whatever speech he wants to amplify even if it violates his own policies. He overtly supported Russia over Ukraine the last time around so merely amplifying their vile speech this time is no biggie. ,,,

I always believe actions over words. And Elon sending thousands of StarLink terminals to the Ukraine while giving none to Russian forces says a lot to me.

 

[Daniel in SD]

giving none to Russian forces says a lot to me.

That he doesn’t want to go to prison?

 

[BitJam]

I always believe actions over words. And Elon sending thousands of StarLink terminals to the Ukraine while giving none to Russian forces says a lot to me.

Let me reiterate an extremely relevant part of my post that you conveniently omitted:

It's wonderful that Elon is helping Ukraine. It would be even more wonderful if he stopped helping Russia as well.

I'm glad we seem to agree that Elon helping Ukraine is good. I wish we could also agree that Elon helping Russia by reiterating and amplifying Russian propaganda is bad.

Elon is a human being and like all of us he does good things and bad things. We should praise the good and criticize the bad. People who think he can do nothing wrong are just as much of a problem as those who think he can do nothing right.

 

[SageBrush]

Elon is a human being and like all of us he does good things and bad things. We should praise the good and criticize the bad.

I write that as (mostly) does good things and not infrequently says stupid things. I support and applaud the good actions and mostly ignore the verbal crap. And in all fairness, a lot of his verbal crap is quirky humor, and his willingness to speak his mind honestly is a virtue.

I have little doubt that the Fascist Right view him as a useful idiot with a lot of money. I'm curious how long it takes Musk to catch on. Musk has never been a liberal -- that was wishful thinking by the Left abetted by Musk not going out of his way to antagonize them until recently out of business concerns. The real Musk (TM) remains a brilliant industrialist who is not out to trash the world for personal gain. If only there were more like him.

Back to UKR, his actions are the most important, and they out-distance all the rest of Corporate America combined. Give the man some of his due, and by that I mean recognize that the positive effects of his actions are magnitudes greater than his naive ideological bouts of logorrhea amplified by the media echo chambers. Giving equal praise and critique reminds me of the Faux new version of 'balanced journalism' that covers truth and lie equally (on their good days.)

Pardon me for saying so, but the incessant critique of Musk by the Left reads to me as fueled by anger and resentment over feeling abandoned. The petty, vindictive behavior of teenage girls who feel a lack of loyalty comes to mind. The sad irony of this is that Musk is in turn angered by the unbalanced vilification, and he responds by dancing with the a**holes.

 

[BitJam]

Giving equal praise and critique reminds me of the Faux new version of 'balanced journalism' that covers truth and lie equally (on their good days.)

Here you seem to be putting words in my mouth. I was saying praise what is praiseworthy and blame what is blameworthy. Nowhere have I said praise and blame should be doled out in equal measure. That's almost as bad as only praising or only blaming.

It's simple. Elon should stop saying stupid sh*t that helps Russia. If people don't stand up and say this then he will continue to do it. He should also stop saying stupid sh*t that hurts him and hurts the companies he's associated with. It appears he has an addiction. You aren't doing him any favors by enabling his addictive behavior.

 

[SmokyPeat]

There's already a designated thread for bickering about Elon's Twitter habits. This is the Ukraine thread. Focus people.

 

[UrsS]

I don't think anybody outside of Russia (and probably few inside) took Medvedev's tweet seriously. There was nothing there to amplify, really. Let's try to keep this thread somewhat free of Twitter nonsense unless absolutely necessary.

As far as I can see tweets amplifying Putin's agenda is pretty dangerous. After all it got us 4 years of Trump presidency and about 1/3 of the American people totally removed from reality (Big Lie, QAnon etc.) It also got us Brexit and most likely the fascist presidency in Italy, almost in France too.
So the price we all pay for giving Putin a bigger audience is quite considerable. And we should not underestimate the subversive influence Putin and all his russian bots have over anything right wing anywhere in the world.
And that is where I have my gripes with Elon Musk. He does not seem to understand how destructive the Putin created and supported irrational right wing apocalyptic movement actually is. As an engineer he seed the direct correlation between supporting the Ukraine war effort against the direct invasion but fails to see the hidden mind bending (QAnon style) that creates division and chaos everywhere.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Putin is most generously giving conscripts the option of freezing their sperm in vitro in addition to in situ, reportedly. Must be a big morale booster, lol.

Russian government to pay for soldiers who want to freeze sperm before going to war | Fortune

fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[Bet TSLA]

As far as I can see tweets amplifying Putin's agenda is pretty dangerous. After all it got us 4 years of Trump presidency and about 1/3 of the American people totally removed from reality (Big Lie, QAnon etc.) It also got us Brexit and most likely the fascist presidency in Italy, almost in France too.
So the price we all pay for giving Putin a bigger audience is quite considerable. And we should not underestimate the subversive influence Putin and all his russian bots have over anything right wing anywhere in the world.
And that is where I have my gripes with Elon Musk. He does not seem to understand how destructive the Putin created and supported irrational right wing apocalyptic movement actually is. As an engineer he seed the direct correlation between supporting the Ukraine war effort against the direct invasion but fails to see the hidden mind bending (QAnon style) that creates division and chaos everywhere.

Oh, much worse than that. Putin's been doing psyops since his KGB days. He has tons of experience figuring out how to bend the minds of politically naive rich Western businessmen (e.g. Trump). Trump has been a Kremlin asset for years. Now Elon is too. Ironically, the victim of a mind virus he is now incapable of recognizing, although he remains certain that there's a mind virus problem of some sort that he's worried about. Elon's first principles superpowers are utterly useless against Putin's particular superpower.

 

[petit_bateau]

If this is affecting all ships leaving Russian ports even outside the war zone that's probably going to have an impact on their oil exports.

Apparently it also affects Moldova and Belarus as well as Russia and Ukraine.

It is somewhat ambiguous as to which waters are affected, but it certainly seems to affect the LNG cargoes out of Sakhalin in the Russian Far East to Japan. Some of the press reports are very clear, all Russian territorial waters, but maybe that is an error. If so it would also include Russian North West (i.e. Yamal LNG exports) and anything out of Baltic, plus (strictly speaking) Caspian cargoes that are increasingly important for some legs of the railfreight routes.

Because it is the re-insurance market that is affected, it may also be consequential for aviation and rail traffic crossing any of these territorial areas.

Ship insurers to cancel war cover for Russia, Ukraine from Jan. 1

Ship insurers said they are cancelling war risk cover across Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, following an exit from the region by reinsurers in the face of steep losses.

www.reuters.com

Explainer: How will Japan resolve shipping insurance for Russian LNG imports?

Japan, the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer, is facing its latest challenge in securing vital gas supplies from Russia after Western reinsurers said they would halt marine war insurance for ships travelling in Russian waters from Jan. 1.

www.reuters.com

Japan firms to stop insuring ships in all Russian waters, Nikkei reports

Three Japanese insurance companies will stop insuring ships for damage in all Russian waters due to the war in Ukraine, potentially affecting Japan's energy imports including liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Nikkei newspaper said on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

Japan asks its insurers to retain marine war cover for LNG shippers in Russian waters

The Japanese government has asked insurers to take on additional risks to continue providing marine war insurance for liquefied natural gas (LNG) shippers in Russian waters, a senior official at the industry ministry said.

www.reuters.com

 

[petit_bateau]

might also be red on red

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608401731121221635

Baza

Над Энгельсом сработала система ПВО. Это не первый раз, когда местный военный аэродром подвергается атаке. Первый обстрел произошел еще 5 декабря — тогда ударным беспилотникам удалось долететь до аэропорта. По информации Минобороны, погибли трое военнослужащих. Последняя атака произошла всего...

t.me

 

[Tiger]

Simply hilarious flood of memes:

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23RussiaIsCollapsing&src=trend_click&f=live&vertical=trends

 

[petit_bateau]

might also be red on red

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608401731121221635

Baza

Над Энгельсом сработала система ПВО. Это не первый раз, когда местный военный аэродром подвергается атаке. Первый обстрел произошел еще 5 декабря — тогда ударным беспилотникам удалось долететь до аэропорта. По информации Минобороны, погибли трое военнослужащих. Последняя атака произошла всего...

t.me

indeed, seems to have been red on red

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608409210374455298