I think that came out about a month ago, but it lays out the damage done by systemic lying. Very good.
Russia is running out of most things needed to keep the war going. They have some production, but it won't be enough.
A bit of closing the barn after the horses escaped. Most of the men who could get out have already left.
In other news, Trent Telenko on his estimates of Russian dead to wounded ratios and what's going to cause a lot more casualties in the coming months: cold injuries such as frostbite, hypothermia, trench foot, etc.
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App
The Russians do have the advantage that most of their troops grew up in places that have brutal winters, but few of these men have had to live outside in the winter and alcohol abuse is a serious problem among the troops. Alcohol causes someone to lose heat quicker in a cold environment and it causes people to do reckless things.
He points out that the Russians had about 4000 KIA last week. That equals about 10,000 total casualties by his math. Add on the cold injury levels the US Army saw in 1944 and that adds another 6000 casualties a week. No army, even a loss tolerant one like Russia can sustain 16,000 casualties a week out of around 100K to 200K in the field. Probably closer to 100K. By mid-winter the Russians aren't going to have enough troops to hold any of the territory they currently hold. Even with the army feeding in mobiks as fast as they can mobilize them. The cold is going to cause equipment to break down too, and they aren't going to recover many of the uniforms from the dead. They will probably be running out of uniforms soon. There are already signs of shortages there.
There is talk of Russia feeding some of the mobiks into the fight now and training up the rest for a spring offensive. I never thought they could train up enough, but they will probably end up having to commit their half trained troops before spring just to hold the line. Just like Japan did with their air power in early October 1944. They fed them into the fight before they were ready and they got wiped out.
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