Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Dangerous Fish]

There's plenty of rhetoric from UKR aimed at the West in order to secure more arms and that's not a bad thing but needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
I can't see how 500k fresh RUS will be available by Feb 24th even if they are actively press-ganging more right now.
Even if there were, >50% would be just 'meat'.
But time is the real enemy and we just cannot keep tip-toeing around.
Send them long range missilies ASAP.

 

[RobStark]

The Pentagon can see the difference between 100k Russian troops gathering on Ukraine's borders and 500k.

 

[Unclepaul]

Should be no depletion of mines by human waves of soldiers. Mines can easily be replaced with mine laying artillery shells, mine laying tanks, mine laying aircraft etc.

 

[Alset Srotom]

The mental gymnastics in this thread is astounding.

Russia concedes some small lands: "OMG PUTLER IS DONE"

Ukraine planning to concede a settlement key to their supply lines: "OMG VLOD IS A TACTICAL GENIUS"

 

[RobStark]

The mental gymnastics in this thread is astounding.

Russia concedes some small lands: "OMG PUTLER IS DONE"

Ukraine planning to concede a settlement key to their supply lines: "OMG VLOD IS A TACTICAL GENIUS"

Your mental gymnastics are astounding.

The area in blue are not "some small lands." Kherson was not a small tactical retreat.

With Ukrainian gains in the Northeast Bakhmut is not that important and Soledar much less.

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620949369561419777

 

[wdolson]

View attachment 902197

I see no signs the Russians have been able to raise a force of 500K. Their 300K mobilization probably swept more men than that into the army, but not another 500K. And the Russians have lost a significant number of those conscripts already. From the Ukrainian death numbers, probably about 50K of them are dead, and another 50-100K probably have debilitating injuries that put them out of action.

They have been trying to train the troops they held behind, but no army can raise a bunch of conscripts and get them truly ready for combat in three months. The new troops are almost certainly significantly poor.

The Pentagon can see the difference between 100k Russian troops gathering on Ukraine's borders and 500k.

There are news reports that the Russians are planning an offensive, but the same reports say the only observable activity is the Russians are building a lot of field fortifications. Fortifying is a sign of defensive, not offensive stance.

Should be no depletion of mines by human waves of soldiers. Mines can easily be replaced with mine laying artillery shells, mine laying tanks, mine laying aircraft etc.

Your mental gymnastics are astounding.

The area in blue are not "some small lands." Kherson was not a small tactical retreat.

With Ukrainian gains in the Northeast Bakhmut is not that important and Soledar much less.

And the supply line that is threatened is the supply line to Bakhmut. If the Ukrainians give up Bakhmut, they don't need the supply line anymore. Bakhmut is not some sort of lynchpin that if it falls Ukraine is toast. It has a bit of importance locally because it's the road hub for that local area, but beyond that is has no strategic importance.

Russia started their assault on Bokhmut last summer when an offensive launched from there and Izium could compromise a large salient the Ukraines had in the Russian line. With the fall of Izium, Bakhmut is of little strategic value to the Russians, but they have kept attacking for some unknown reason.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

It's estimated Ru has 325 000 troops in Ukr today. Add 150 000 and the total will be near 500 000..

 

[MC3OZ]

There's plenty of rhetoric from UKR aimed at the West in order to secure more arms and that's not a bad thing but needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
I can't see how 500k fresh RUS will be available by Feb 24th even if they are actively press-ganging more right now.
Even if there were, >50% would be just 'meat'.
But time is the real enemy and we just cannot keep tip-toeing around.
Send them long range missilies ASAP.

I'm wondering if Russian nuclear sabre-rattling is partially effective, the West are going to keep backing Ukraine, but are wary about escalating to new types of weapons like Tanks and Aircraft. (Yes tanks are coming now but it wasn't quick)

They still want Ukraine to win, but they don't want Ukraine to win too quickly?

Ukraine also are not saying much about their plans for an offensive. Both side might be hoping to launch an offensive in the Spring. My expectation is that the Ukrainian offensive would be more successful.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm wondering if Russian nuclear sabre-rattling is partially effective, the West are going to keep backing Ukraine, but are wary about escalating to new types of weapons like Tanks and Aircraft. (Yes tanks are coming now but it wasn't quick)

They still want Ukraine to win, but they don't want Ukraine to win too quickly?

Ukraine also are not saying much about their plans for an offensive. Both side might be hoping to launch an offensive in the Spring. My expectation is that the Ukrainian offensive would be more successful.

The US DOD had long taken a boiling frog approach to weapons supply, slowly increasing the type of weapons supplied that if supplied earlier may have been seen as crossing a "red line" or as direct NATO involvement:

U.S. military and intelligence circles have debated the reason that Putin has not yet attempted an escalatory move to discourage further arms shipments on Ukraine’s western border. “As we have gotten deeper into the conflict, we realized we could provide more weapons of greater sophistication and at greater scale without provoking a Russian military response against nato,” the Defense Department official said. “Was it that we were always too cautious, and we could have been more aggressive all along? Or, had we provided these systems right away, would they have indeed been very escalatory?” The official went on, “In that scenario, Russia was the frog, and we boiled the water slowly, and Russia got used to it.”

Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine

Of course it would be possible earlier to gamble and outright just give everything to Ukraine at once, but I don't think anyone can really predict the outcome of that. Rewind back the clock yourself, if at the start of the war, the US supplied every type of weapon they are supplying now, including the HIMARs, Abrams, AGM-88, and likely upcoming F-16s (and similarly other nations supplying equivalent systems), I don't see how it wouldn't have been seen as anything other than NATO direct involvement in the war. Now, with the slow ramp of the type of weapons being supplied, it seems almost "normal" and much less noticeable.

As for other outcomes, it is not just the nuclear weapons, but also other things Russia may do (including chemical/biological weapons), as well as pushing them to a larger offensive (including toward NATO). The article above also pointed to Putin's nuclear saber rattling (including him saying it was not a bluff): it didn't lead to any practical decrease in Western support (in fact the support has continued to grow), so effectively the West called his bluff.

 

[trayloader]

Dunno if this was posted here already.
The PayPal mafia seems to be doing an incredible job in this war.
Palantir and Starlink seem to be the key factors here:

Software and War | Letter from the Chief Executive Officer

Read a letter from Palantir CEO Alex Karp on software and war.

www.palantir.com

Ukraine is using Palantir's software for 'targeting,' CEO says

Data analytics company Palantir is "responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine," Chief Executive Alex Karp said Wednesday, elaborating on the U.S. company's work with Kyiv since Russia's invasion last year.

www.reuters.com

 

[wdolson]

The Russians made a promotional video of their deployment of an Arctic version of the Tow M2DT air defense system. Apparently they left geotagging on with their video. The Ukrainians took it out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621007101182058498

 

[petit_bateau]

Sanctions starting to affect behaviour in Turkey. These aircraft are in effect stolen goods now as their leases are not being paid, so Turkey is about the only place they can fly to. Until now.

Havaş, a subsidiary of TAV Airports, Turkey's largest airport ground handling services provider, warned that it would not be able to serve US and some European aircraft in Russia, Belarus and Iran. Recently, the Wall Street Journal had warned that Turkish individuals or institutions would face sanctions such as fines and imprisonment or loss of export privileges if they provided services such as refueling and spare parts to US-made aircraft from Russia and Belarus . [Havas] ...states that US-made Boeing and a few European-made Airbus aircraft will not be serviced. The list includes more than 170 aircraft from Russian airlines, seven of which are from Belarus and four from Iran.

Havaş’tan Rus, İran ve Belaruslu şirketlere uyarı

Havaş, ABD yaptırımları nedeniyle Rusya, İran ve Belarus'taki şirketlere hizmet veremeyeceği konusunda uyardı. Türkiye'nin en büyük havalimanı yer hizmetleri sağlayıcısı

www.haber.aero

 

[Dangerous Fish]

It's estimated Ru has 325 000 troops in Ukr today. Add 150 000 and the total will be near 500 000..

There are signs of a new mobilisation about to begin but trying to get 150k new 'mobiks' to UKR by Feb 24 is just going to lead to all the same problems they had with the first wave, maybe even more.
University students and staff are next on the list.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Russia's Tomsk State University has secretly created a 'mobilisation station' for its students and staff, to be activated within two hours of receiving the codeword 'Lineyka-222' ('Ruler-222') from ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

FINLAND: "come for the pine trees, stay for the income equality."

Or if you prefer: "BELGIUM: come for the waffles, stay for the upcoming International Court trials"

Cheers!

 

[madodel]

Russia’s Shadow Army Accused in Mysterious Teen Abductions

Anyone surprised the Wagner Group is involved in kidnapping? And this article is about their work in Africa, not Ukraine.

 

[iPlug]

Impressed with the enduring coordinated efforts about all things Ukraine, including those not directly connected to the war.

Specifically, on the anti-corruption front: it appears that Ukraine, having the ultimate goal of EU membership and continued financial assistance contingent on making ongoing and sustainable progress in rooting out legacy Russian oligarchical and other kleptocratic entities, looks promising.

 

[petit_bateau]

EU pledges to double military aid programme for Ukraine
EU to train an extra 15,000 soldiers and prepare new sanctions against Russia

EU pledges to double military aid programme for Ukraine

EU to train an extra 15,000 soldiers and prepare new sanctions against Russia

www.theguardian.com

 

[navguy12]

A story in today’s Globe and Mail (paywalled) about one of the Canadian (volunteer) snipers in Ukraine and his activities in Bakhmut on Dec 24/25 2022; he details how wave after wave of untrained Russians get killed by sniper activities:

Canadian sniper in Ukraine describes Russians’ stubborn advance in Bakhmut

Codenamed Teflon, this Alberta-born veteran recounts how he shot at wave after wave of Russian troops in their Christmas assault on an eastern Ukrainian city

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Just a Reader]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620949369561419777

Given that Ukraine was run by oligarchs not unlike Russia, I dare to doubt the validity of those figures.
Ahead of the visit of some EU bigwigs Ukraine has done some public housecleaning by raiding the Kyiv mansion of oligarch Ihor Kolomojskyj. Let's hope that this is a sign of general action against the oligarchs.