huge losses again. Yesterday we saw a giant number of MLRS systems something out of normal.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
huge losses again. Yesterday we saw a giant number of MLRS systems something out of normal.
petit_bateau
Active Member
On the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic matter : in my previous life I have mobilised and authorised diving activities on the various pipelines and flowlines (etc) I have had responsibility for. Plus other subsea and seabed activities. There are circumstances in which pipelines can be awkward to locate, but I don't think that these circumstances apply to the Nordstream pipelines. However the Nordstream pipelines are non-trivial structures at a significant depth (~80m from memory) so one doesn't casually have a go. But clearly someone did, and very successfully so. It will be interesting to see what evidence becomes publically available.
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On the Black Sea matter of recovering the MQ-9 stuff. The Montreux Convention basically rules out transit of any submarines except for the defined Black Sea states (of which the USA is definitely not one). So thoughts of moving a US submarine into the Black Sea through the Dardanelles are pretty much nipped in the bud. In any case submarines per se are not terribly helpful, except as carriers for the various 'military' swimmer/etc delivery vehicles. The sonars on a typical 'warfare' submarine aren't really designed to go scanning the seabed for light aircraft wreckage at ~800m or so.
Also the Turks have now recognised a state of war is de facto in existence, and in accordance with the treaty have closed the Dardanelles to all military traffic, including NATO vessels. My recollection is that the US flags its auxiliaries as USN, which is different than the (uncommon) UK practice of flagging its auxiliaries under the blue ensign as RFA, not RN. The implication is that the USN would struggle to convince the Turks that a USN auxiliary (however recently 'taken up from trade', i.e. chartered) was not a military vessel. Especially if it had any form of submarine strapped to its deck. (By the way I cannot recall if any significant UK auxiliary exceeding the 15,000 tonne single-vessel-limit has ever transited under the treaty). The Turks are very serious about ensuring the treaty is complied with.
Much more likely in my opinion is that - in due course - the US may charter some civilian vessels that are already in the Black Sea, and utilise them out of Romanian ports/etc. Or use the various vessels that the Romanians and Bulgarians (ie. NATO states) already have in the Black Sea. They have probably already used those and the aviation assets (primarily helos) to sweep for any floating debris that the Russians haven't already snagged. There was some internet chatter that some Russian small vessels had recovered some debris, but there was little proof of evidence behind that. I guess we will find out. The US will hope that the heavy and interesting bit - namely the podded sensor(s) - broke off on seasurface impact and is by now safely a very long way down, buried in the mud. Trying to locate something about a foot long in the mud and likely greatly dispersed well away from wherever the light wreckage went is unlikely to be easy. (caveat being I don't know if the MQ9 has a pinger, but even so the batteries in those don't last that long). The sort of gear required to locate it is generally deployed off of fairly small vesels and so no need to utilise significant warships at all. (and it can all be aircraft-delivered to ports/airfields in the area). If they do locate it then retrieval would be next on the list, and that might require something more significant if they went the manned semisub route, as opposed to the USV route. Personally I would expect the USV route. The Russians have many of the same capabilities, but in reality given the location etc I don't think it will be that high on their list of priorities except for the opportunistic sweep they have also probably already done.
Clearly the US is downplaying the short term significance of this. It is not really in anyone's interests to make too great a political hoo hah out of it right now. However I expect some US overwatch assets will be in evidence from now on. Much the same way as the UK has put its overwatch assets (Typhoons) out alongside its ELINT aircraft ever since the Russians accidentally loosed off a missile from their interceptor several months ago. Whether that was a genuine switchology whoops, or a deliberate accidental release, is not something I expect to become public. But nonetheless the UK has put Typhoons out alongside the ELINT aircraft ever since.
March 15, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news
Russia said it will try to retrieve the wreckage of the US drone downed over the Black Sea on Tuesday.
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On a slightly different matter I get a lot of military aviation training traffic around me. For example a pair of jungly Merlins have just gone over. I distinctly get the feeling that the low flying altitude restrictions have been adjusted downwards.
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lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
It is an effective approach to avoid escalation and the need to respond.
Say the Russians were dumping fuel on the drone.
Say one screwed up and ran into the drone damaging it and bringing it down.
Give the Russians a few minutes to deny everything.
Release the footage showing two of the passes including a damaged propeller following one of the passes.
Simply state Russian pilots are too incompetent to be held responsible for their stupidity and lack of talent - no need to respond.
Say the Russians were dumping fuel on the drone.
Say one screwed up and ran into the drone damaging it and bringing it down.
Give the Russians a few minutes to deny everything.
Release the footage showing two of the passes including a damaged propeller following one of the passes.
Simply state Russian pilots are too incompetent to be held responsible for their stupidity and lack of talent - no need to respond.
US releases video of Russian fighter jet forcing down reaper drone:
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huge losses again. Yesterday we saw a giant number of MLRS systems something out of normal.
In the latest release I only see 1 MLRS taken out, but the 15 March release had 12. In the 16 March release the Russians lost over 1000 troops.
My partner came across a story of a New Zealand volunteer medic in Bakhmut who found a Ukrainian POW in a basement who had been held there 42 days. All the other POWs with him had died. The Russians had bugged out and left the prisoners to die.
That's an indication the Ukrainians have taken back something that the Russians held a while.
I didn't propose regular submarines. The only ones that would be useful for this task would be unmanned remote controlled subs. There are a number of those used by private salvage companies.
The US has a history of contracting with private companies that do quasi military work. Evergreen Aviation here in the Portland area was contracted to move cargo in SE Asia in places where the US didn't want a direct US presence. Some of those private companies are likely CIA fronts.
A private salvage vessel could sail into the Black Sea with whatever the Turks would object to removed and any extra equipment needed could be shipped to Romania by cargo plane and mated back up with the ship once they arrive in Romania.
Romania would probably be the only country bordering the Black Sea which could be utilized for vessels. Ukraine pretty much doesn't have much left and while Bulgaria has been providing aid to Ukraine on the sly, they publicly can't be seen doing that. The political situation in Bulgaria is not very pro-Ukraine right now. I don't know if Romania has any ships that would work for a search and salvage operation.
Clearly the US is downplaying the short term significance of this. It is not really in anyone's interests to make too great a political hoo hah out of it right now. However I expect some US overwatch assets will be in evidence from now on. Much the same way as the UK has put its overwatch assets (Typhoons) out alongside its ELINT aircraft ever since the Russians accidentally loosed off a missile from their interceptor several months ago. Whether that was a genuine switchology whoops, or a deliberate accidental release, is not something I expect to become public. But nonetheless the UK has put Typhoons out alongside the ELINT aircraft ever since.
March 15, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news
Russia said it will try to retrieve the wreckage of the US drone downed over the Black Sea on Tuesday.edition.cnn.com
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On a slightly different matter I get a lot of military aviation training traffic around me. For example a pair of jungly Merlins have just gone over. I distinctly get the feeling that the low flying altitude restrictions have been adjusted downwards.
NATO air reservists getting in their training just in case? Training for on the deck air tactics?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm well aware (long before this conversation) of the Montreux Convention. But Russia understands only ONE thing - strength.
I understand the implications of passing a sub through the Bosporus Strait. But that drone is OUR property, and should be protected and treated as such.
The ENTIRE proliferation of stealth technology to Russia and China can be traced back to their acquisition of the Stealth 117A fighter shot down over Bosnia in the 1990s. These countries are very good at tearing something apart and seeing how it works. They are NOT so good at innovating and coming up with something themselves (yes, there are notable exceptions, but in bulk that statement is true).
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Yeah, clear video evidence that this was done on purpose.
Arguments for recovering the drone aside, I think our best response would be to increase our support for Ukraine after this incident. F16s? ATACMS? Longer range anti-ship missiles?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Deadly explosion rips through spy agency building in Russia
At least one person was killed and two were injured in an explosion that caused a fire at an FSB Border Service Department building in Russia, local authorities said.
Russia’s next civil war has already begun
One of the bloodiest battles in modern European history is taking place in Bakhmut, with reports of more than 1,000 soldiers dying in a single day. But more significantly for the Kremlin, it may also be the site of an extraordinary Russian civil war, playing out on Ukrainian soil between...
Near the end of the clip, one can see the propeller damage.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Video out now on CNN of the Russian Sukoi dumping fuel on, then impacting the rear of the American Reaper drone, damaging it's propeller:
See moment Russian fighter jet confronts US drone | CNN on Youtube
See moment Russian fighter jet confronts US drone | CNN on Youtube
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
What? Dumping fuel on the drone from a distance of 20 feet IS DIRECT CONTACT.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Not "with the jet". It's direct contact with fuel.
It doesn't really matter if there was direct contact with the jet or not. The intent was clearly to crash the drone.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Crikey, if true,
ah, it may be considerably more nuanced
ah, it may be considerably more nuanced
Poland is sending four Mig 29 jets to Ukraine in a matter of days. It's a start!
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Poland first Nato country to send jets to Ukraine - BBC News
Four Soviet-era warplanes will be handed over in the coming days, says President Andrzej Duda.
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Eric Prince proposed the same to Biden a year ago, flying tigers 2.0 that is. Joe sullivan is a piece of crap and if he went than we might get somewhere.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Allegedly. I don't speak Italian, so I can't verify...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Israel for 1st time since war began OKs export licenses for anti-drone systems for Ukraine
Israel has been careful not to give military assistance to Ukraine, fearing such a move could create tension with Russia.
www.axios.com
