Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
In the last few days Moldova has now officially signed into law the adoption of Romanian as their language. This completes the reversal of the Stalinist post-WW2 enforced schism of Moldovan language away from Romanian. The only exception is that Transnystria is still Moscow controlled and still forced to use the cryllic alphabet, not the latin one used in the rest of the country. I don't expect that to last much longer.



As was said on BBC this morning, "pretending that there are two different languages is like trying to pretend that East German language is different than the West German language".
 
North Macedonia agreed to donate all 12 Mi-24 helicopters to Ukraine (they sent all their tanks last year)


It would be nice if the EU could finally find a way to include them


 

There seems to be this knee jerk reaction to blame the US for everything that happens like the US government is orchestrating everything. NATO expansion is not driven by any US foreign policy. To stay safe in the world today, you need to be in one of two groups: either in the nuclear club, or tucked under the umbrella of someone in the nuclear club. Poland got into NATO by threatening to start their own nuclear program. Their neighbors clamored to get in too. The bulk of Europe sees being under the nuclear umbrellas of the US, UK, and France is the safest they are going to get.

Sweden has been almost as intensely independent as Switzerland for centuries and Finland saw that their best bet for keeping their large neighbor on their side of the border was to play a sort of both sides approach. When Putin tore up the intentional order by trying to occupy Ukraine, both countries decided they needed to be under NATO's nuclear umbrella to remain safe.

I have a friend in Finland who understands a lot about military history and he was quite anxious in the early part of last year. The whole country was worked up. When an army is fully committed in one theater and it isn't going well, the last thing they are likely to do is open another theater, and my friend knew that intellectually, but he was still scared and running towards NATO.

The US isn't driving eastward expansion of NATO, Russia is.

I'm very skeptical of anything related to Glenn Beck, but the poster lost me completely in the first paragraph with the old, wrong chestnut blaming the US for NATO expansion. Anyone championing that is either misinformed or has a political agenda going on.

Among the political agendas are to attack the current administration, but also there is an isolationist movement in the US who completely miss the lessons of history. The US was the dominant economy in the world after WW I by a large margin. The job of the world's next super power was essentially there for the taking. France and the UK snubbed everyone at the peace conference trying to continue the Great Game, but really it was time for the mantle to be passed.

Instead of pressing the issue, Woodrow Wilson (who got very ill at the peace conference and never fully recovered) gave up and went home. The US became very isolationist and tried to pull back from European politics completely. Though it still remained involved in politics on the other side of the world. Sentiment in the US was basically, "screw them". The power vacuum left from the US' lack of involvement allowed nationalist movements to take hold in Italy, Spain, and Germany. US involvement probably couldn't have stopped the internal politics, but may have stopped them from pouring out across their borders on their neighbors.

For a small, weak country, being isolationist isn't such a bad thing. Especially if natural terrain helps keep you neutral like Switzerland or the US. Up until the late 19th century the US was not powerful enough to be a major player on the world stage. It was growing to fill the continent and most of it's economic output was pouring into that effort. Once the frontiers were settled and the industrial revolution took off, the US quickly became the producers of everything. Controlling the middle part of a large continent with the best internal river system in the world, abundant resources, and a growing industrial base, the US was destined to become a dominant power in the 20th century. But for most of the 19th it was not a major player and far enough away from the rest of the world that it could mostly ignore the rest of the world's politics and they could ignore it.

The isolationist movement in the US is an attempt to go back to a state whose time has passed. The US can't be isolationist any more. To try would likely destabilize the entire planet. Now the US could also do better in its working on the world stage. The invasion of Iraq was a massive mistake and Afghanistan was initially the correct move (take out al Qaeda), but it was badly botched and turned into a quagmire. Vietnam was a mistake too. And there are other things the US has done wrong.

I don't have access to the types of intelligence the Biden administration has. There may be some very valid geopolitical reasons that the US has moved as slowly as it has in providing equipment to Ukraine, or it may be the administration is just being too cautious, but the administration is doing the right thing IMO.

The US has talked about righteous causes and people like Glenn Beck were singing the praises of some very flawed "heroes" like the Contras or other nasties who claimed to be fighting the anti-communism fight to get US help when really they were just the other nasties trying to take out the nasties who conveniently aligned themselves with Moscow for the same convenience. I have heard a lot of talk from US political figures about "freedom fighters" over the years.

Now comes along a real cause where an emerging liberal democracy is invaded by Russia with no provocation and they are fighting for all those values the champions of freedom fighters in the past claimed they stood for. My partner has read many accounts on Twitter of Ukrainians who take inspiration from the American Revolution and want to turn Ukraine into the United States of eastern Europe. After decades of bogus stories about freedom fighters standing up for the righteous cause, one finally comes along and because the guy in the White House is from the wrong party and their last guy idolized the bad guys in this, all they can do is criticize.
 
FYI, I was writing this before the above posted and not in response to the above post.


I see most of the problem being the idea that people must be polite when others insist that up is down, down is up and on and on.

NATO has not invaded a country then attempted to "annex" it near as I can tell.

The US has and continues to advocate for democracy and free markets as an alternative to the Russian way (being biased, I would say as an alternative to kleptocracy).

The US has invaded countries for little to no reason so I get Russia's concern regarding our intentions. We have not of late attempted to keep those countries as our own. We could tamp down these tendencies and reduce Russia's concerns. I think that would be a good idea for many reasons.

It stinks for Russia to have countries on their borders like Finland (a flourishing democracy) and Ukraine (seeming to be moving hard that way) as these provide concrete examples of places that have rejected the Russian way and have/might flourish(ed). NATO is a problem in that the threat is a small weak nation can choose to reject the Russian way and try to join NATO and prevent Russia from using force to place that nation back in their sphere of influence.

It stinks for Russia in that NATO prevents it from dictating to smaller nations. In that respect, NATO threatens Russia's way of doing business. The question is, how much do we moderate access to NATO to keep that threat at an acceptable level as Russia erodes itself away?

The above said, as NATO enlarges there will be more and more infighting which will make it ever harder to get every nation to agree to accept a new entry. Some NATO countries will go through waves of corruption for which the Russians are highly skilled at taking advantage and exerting influence.

Which goes first? Russian effectiveness at threatening its neighbors or NATO's ability to act in unison?
 
FYI, I was writing this before the above posted and not in response to the above post.


I see most of the problem being the idea that people must be polite when others insist that up is down, down is up and on and on.

NATO has not invaded a country then attempted to "annex" it near as I can tell.

The US has and continues to advocate for democracy and free markets as an alternative to the Russian way (being biased, I would say as an alternative to kleptocracy).

The US has invaded countries for little to no reason so I get Russia's concern regarding our intentions. We have not of late attempted to keep those countries as our own. We could tamp down these tendencies and reduce Russia's concerns. I think that would be a good idea for many reasons.

It stinks for Russia to have countries on their borders like Finland (a flourishing democracy) and Ukraine (seeming to be moving hard that way) as these provide concrete examples of places that have rejected the Russian way and have/might flourish(ed). NATO is a problem in that the threat is a small weak nation can choose to reject the Russian way and try to join NATO and prevent Russia from using force to place that nation back in their sphere of influence.

It stinks for Russia in that NATO prevents it from dictating to smaller nations. In that respect, NATO threatens Russia's way of doing business. The question is, how much do we moderate access to NATO to keep that threat at an acceptable level as Russia erodes itself away?

The above said, as NATO enlarges there will be more and more infighting which will make it ever harder to get every nation to agree to accept a new entry. Some NATO countries will go through waves of corruption for which the Russians are highly skilled at taking advantage and exerting influence.

Which goes first? Russian effectiveness at threatening its neighbors or NATO's ability to act in unison?
You begin to see why the EU is being very cautious about bringing in any more countries, especially in the Balkans. The quislings in Hungary are already a big enough headache.

(also there is likely to be a general election in Chzech soon, which is currently most likely to be taken by a pro-Russian lot)

However not bringing these countries in does not solve the problem either. Especially when Russia (and China) are out there causing trouble. A clear fast path needs to be given for e.g. Moldova, Ukraine, North Macedonia, Kosovo and perhaps Albania to accede in the next round.
 
...] The US has invaded countries for little to no reason so I get Russia's concern regarding our intentions. We have not of late attempted to keep those countries as our own. We could tamp down these tendencies and reduce Russia's concerns. I think that would be a good idea for many reasons. [...

When was the last time the US invaded a country the size of Russia that also has Nuclear Weapons? And more Nuclear Weapons than the US at that...

No offense, but that 'line' out of the Dictator's/Kremlin's 'gaslighting/reality distortion propaganda' is just utter hogwash...
 
Last edited:
This is completely inaccurate. Russia has almost no artillery shells What they do have is antiquated and not fit to fire. Ukraine is winning every battle across the front line.

Oh wait, that is the fantasy land this thread is living in. The reality is that Russia took a tactical pause and now are back on the offensive, an air strike in the Sumy region killed over 36 UKR and wounded 100+, but Russia is inept and everything is great for the UKR😆
How is that 3 day invasion going comrade?
 
When was the last time the US invaded a country the size of Russia that also has Nuclear Weapons? And more Nuclear Weapons than the US at that...

No offense, but that 'line' out of the Dictator's/Kremlin's 'gaslighting/reality distortion propaganda' is just utter hogwash...
Nope, not intended that way at all.
With all good propaganda, there is typically a small thread or grain of truth to latch onto.
IMO, the US does not need to be invading countries like Afghanistan or Iraq and by not doing so, we can remove one small grain of truth from the Russian line that we are an aggressor (just like they are in Ukraine).

No false equivalency there at all. Only pointing out that there is no good reason to help the Russian narrative.
 
Russia to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus

Russia has reached an agreement with Belarus to station tactical nuclear weapons on its smaller neighbour’s territory, so bringing some of its arsenal closer to the rest of Europe, Vladimir Putin has said.

The Russian president made the announcement on state television, arguing that it would not breach non-proliferation agreements and that it would match similar arrangements that the US has with several of its European allies.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
Nope, not intended that way at all.
With all good propaganda, there is typically a small thread or grain of truth to latch onto.
IMO, the US does not need to be invading countries like Afghanistan or Iraq and by not doing so, we can remove one small grain of truth from the Russian line that we are an aggressor (just like they are in Ukraine).

No false equivalency there at all. Only pointing out that there is no good reason to help the Russian narrative.

It isn't just Russia doing this. I've seen a lot of it in politics in this country too. In the fake controversies there is almost always something someone can point to and say "see, we were right!" The US invading Iraq was not a war of conquest, it was a war of regime change. But the Russians have been saying the US wants to expand and take over everyone, so they can point to that and say "see we told you!"

I think it was an interview with Timothy Snyder, he made the point that the Russians need an external boogie man to point to as the common enemy. The US was the convenient enemy. There are still memes from the cold war they can build on and the US has done some stupid moves like Iraq and Afghanistan to fuel the narrative, even if misses the mark factually, it doesn't emotionally. He points out that there is nothing the US could do to get them to stop. They need to cast someone as the enemy.

The US did the same thing with the USSR during the cold war. Anything bad in American politics was signs of a communist plot. McCarthy in the 50s won re-election by creating a commie scare in Hollywood and other industries.

US foreign policy was sold as a black and white good vs evil conflict. Our guys "the good guys" were democracy and capitalist loving people who were locked in an existential battle with the bad guys who were communists. In most of these conflicts communism was only a peripheral part of the fight, if at all. One side talked up the communist line to get Soviet help and the other talked up the democracy/capitalism line to get US help. Neither side really believed either, they were just old fashioned turf wars.

Then the cold war ended and the enemy that was the stalking horse for US foreign policy went away. For a short period extreme Islam became the enemy, but it was a weaker threat than communism was and everyone knew it. Nixon observed out when he was president that if communism ever went away the US would tear itself apart, and it has been at odds with itself the last 30 years. It was more mild in the 90s, but reached a fever pitch in the last 15 years.

Putin has taken every advantage of this and fed both sides on social media fanning the flames. China and North Korea have gotten in the act a bit too. If Russia falls apart, China may take the lead on the trolling of American politics.

The underlying problem is the US is made up of a bunch of different cultures (nations in the terms of Colin Woodard who wrote American Nations). Some of those cultures naturally get along with one another, but some are incompatible. It goes back to the founding of the colonies. Slavery was the presenting issue about it, but the core cultural division never went away after the Civil War. They are still there and have been eating away since the cold war ended.

A convoy of cutting edge Russian military trucks is headed for Ukraine. They top out at 30 mph though, so it may take quite some time for it to get there.

Those are some museum pieces. I watched the video first and I was thinking, "those look like Katyushas". I guess I was right. The towed artillery looks smaller caliber. At least one of them looked a bit like an M-60 107mm that went out of production in 1941
107 mm divisional gun M1940 (M-60) - Wikipedia

It may have been another gun, but looked more like around 100mm than 152mm.


Russia is desperate to scare NATO into holding back its weapons because of fear Russia is about to attack them. The stepped up surveillance flights are probably to ensure the eastern NATO members that Russia is in no position to attack anybody else.

Russian TV is full of talking heads claiming that Russia is going to roll to the English Channel or Lisbon after they are done with Ukraine. It's complete fantasy and just posturing for domestic consumption. In conventional military terms, right now the Russians are about as much threat to NATO as Mexico is to the United States. If they were insane they could possibly mount a small border attack with a small unit, but they couldn't do much more than that.

The only threat they can make that has any reality behind it is nuclear.

@lolachampcar was talking about not giving the enemy anything that feeds their narratives. The UK announcing the tanks will be delivered with spent uranium ammunition was one of those. Anyone who understands these things knows that spent uranium is not nuclear weapons, but the Russians are able to use the connection between uranium and nuclear weapons to make the case that the west is raising the nuclear stakes.

The tanks should not be delivered with spent uranium ammunition. There is little need for it. Older HEAT ammunition will work just fine on Russian armor and for the bulk of Russian vehicles on the battlefield a Bushmaster is a more cost effective weapon. Any 20-30mm auto cannon can shred anything short of a tank, and auto cannons have taken out tanks when they have gotten a rear shot.
 
Russia is desperate to scare NATO into holding back its weapons because of fear Russia is about to attack them.
I agree but it's a crazy way to stop the flow of weapons. The more Putin presents himself as a wild and crazy guy with nukes who might attack Europe next, the more Europe sees it's in their own best interest to stop him in Ukraine ASAP.

It's similar to how Putin helped speed up Europe's transition to renewables.
 
Todays ISW analysis is quite good (IMO).

 
.
Those are some museum pieces. I watched the video first and I was thinking, "those look like Katyushas". I guess I was right. The towed artillery looks smaller caliber. At least one of them looked a bit like an M-60 107mm that went out of production in 1941
107 mm divisional gun M1940 (M-60) - Wikipedia

It may have been another gun, but looked more like around 100mm than 152mm.

Yes, and it wouldn't be the first time that either Russia or Ukraine have put old museum pieces back into service. Maybe those trucks aren't destined for Ukraine, but they very well could be. Good for a laugh, anyhow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
I agree but it's a crazy way to stop the flow of weapons. The more Putin presents himself as a wild and crazy guy with nukes who might attack Europe next, the more Europe sees it's in their own best interest to stop him in Ukraine ASAP.

It's similar to how Putin helped speed up Europe's transition to renewables.

It's all they've got to work with. Putin has only managed to achieve the opposite of all his goals in this war. This is going to go down in history as one of the worst cases of achieving exactly the opposite of intentions.

Yes, and it wouldn't be the first time that either Russia or Ukraine have put old museum pieces back into service. Maybe those trucks aren't destined for Ukraine, but they very well could be. Good for a laugh, anyhow.

I looked at the video again trying to identify the guns. The first one appears to be a Zis-3 76mm Field Gun. It went into production in late 1941 and production ended in 1945. It is still in the inventory of some armies around the world so it's possible they re-imported some from somewhere.

The second gun appears to be a real antique. A 45mm AT gun M1942 produced until 1945. They may have gotten it from North Korea who kept on using it after WW II. 45mm AT guns were obsolescent by Operation Barbarossa and were definitely obsolete by the time the Panzer III was being retired from front line service.

It is possible that these weapons were headed for some event displaying weapons of WW II and weren't headed to the front, but it is very curious.
 
This seems like bad news. On the positive side it seems the only source is that Japanese newspaper even though this article was published by the BBC. So hopefully there was something that was lost in translation in the original Japanese article (or something)...

"No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky​

Published 1 day ago
By James Landale in Kyiv

President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine's counter-offensive against Russia cannot start until Western allies send more military support.
He told a Japanese newspaper he would not send his troops to the frontlines without more tanks, artillery and Himars rocket launchers. [...]

And when asked about the expected counter-offensive, he said: 'We can't start yet, we can't send our brave soldiers to the front line without tanks, artillery and long-range rockets.' [..."

 
Last edited:
  • Informative
Reactions: BitJam