Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

Again. I certainly hope that this isn't true.

EDIT: The second tweet. Don't know how to isolate it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653914002978910209

Sushko said they were supposed to launch the attack at 5 - 5:30 AM and it's currently a little after 6 AM in Ukraine now.

It's possible there was something planned, but they backed off when there were leaks, or it may just be rumor blown out of proportion. We don't know.

Using Kaliber's for a nuclear strike is risky, the Ukrainians have gotten pretty good at shooting down cruise missiles. The toughest thing to shoot down would be ballistic missiles. Russia has a lot of Iskander launchers gathering dust and most experts assume Russia held back a few Iskander missiles for use with nukes if Russia decides to use them.

Is this a credible source?

He doesn't seem to be worried.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653922935873085442

Theiner is pretty credible. His track record is better than Sushko's.

Yeah, Nukes in Ukraine would be just about the stupidest thing Russia could possibly do, with the exception of striking NATO.

It would result in short order of:
1) China cutting them off completely, for fear of being in any way (economically, politically) related to what was about to happen to them
2) Being completely cut off economically from the world - the west would go beyond sanctions, we would be talking blockades of ships transiting to/from Russia
3) the mother of all airstrikes on any Russian ship in the Black Sea (this was already warned to Russia if they used nukes)
4) the arming to the teeth of Ukraine with everything in the west's conventional arsenal (M1A1s by the thousands, F16s by the hundreds, ATCAMS, cruise missiles, you name it). Plethora of weapons not only able to allow Ukraine to fend off Russian aggression, but to take the fight to Russian territory.

Did I miss anything?

China and India are both downwind if nukes are used and both may shut off Russia if they use a nuke. Putin did back down on his talk of nuclear weapons after he spoke with Xi Jingping. Xi may have made it clear that China would not tolerate Russia using nuclear weapons.

China is not giving direct military aid to Russia, but they are indirectly selling them the materials they need to make weapons and ammunition. If China cuts them off, Russia will run out of the chemicals needed to make ammunition and the electronics to make the weapons they are making.

If Russia uses nuclear weapons, the US might get involved in the war, at least using air assets. The US would probably not put boots on the ground, Ukraine has enough ground forces to do the job. I could see the US imposing a no fly zone over all pre-2014 Ukrainian territory and possibly extending it to anything flying near their territory which appears to be armed. As part of the no fly zone, all Russian anti-air assets would be removed from the board too.

I saw somewhere someone say that Biden told Putin they he would give nuclear weapons to Ukraine if Russia used one. I kind of doubt that considering how paranoid the US is about their nuclear weapons and keeping tight control on them, but it would be poetic justice.

The world would likely rally around Ukraine in the aftermath of a nuclear attack like the world rallied around the US after 9/11.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Did I miss anything?

Yes. If a radiological detector even beeps in a NATO country, Russia will become lose all it's conventional forces on the ground in Ukraine. Overnight. No further need to withdraw, they won't have an organized force in Ukraine.

 

[SageBrush]

If past is prologue, Putin is nuke rattling to freeze Western response. Response to what ?

Or another thought, Putin in hoping that Nuke rattling will delay/reduce the UKR offensive. This strikes me as more likely, since Putin has been preparing the propaganda line since early in the war that Russia is justified using Nukes if invaded, and eastern UKR is part of Russia.

 

[wdolson]

If past is prologue, Putin is nuke rattling to freeze Western response. Response to what ?

Or another thought, Putin in hoping that Nuke rattling will delay/reduce the UKR offensive. This strikes me as more likely, since Putin has been preparing the propaganda line since early in the war that Russia is justified using Nukes if invaded, and eastern UKR is part of Russia.

Putin has been claiming that all of Ukraine is Russia.

Putin has created a Kobyashi Maru scenario for himself and Russia. The only thing left in the cupboard are nuclear weapons. They have tried everything else and everything has failed. They started a war they can't win and politically he can't afford to quit. For Russia ending the war could mean the end for Putin.

I did see this video. I note one thing about this video that is very heartening:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654000930042556418

Dust!

 

[bo3bdar]

Russia says Ukraine tried to kill Putin with night-time drone attack on Kremlin

Russia accused Ukraine on Wednesday of attacking the Kremlin with drones overnight in an attempt to kill President Vladimir Putin - the most serious allegation that Moscow has levelled at Kyiv in more than 14 months of war.

www.reuters.com

Now we know why they put up those AA systems in Moscow.

Kremlin stays silent on missile systems seen on Moscow rooftops

Images on social media appear to show Pantsir-S1 mobile anti-aircraft systems installed in locations around Moscow.

www.aljazeera.com

It was setting up the pretext for the false flag attack.

 

[heltok]

Imo it's serious gaslighting that Russia can bomb Kiev repeatedly, rape Ukrainian women and kidnap their children, but if Ukraine would drop a few drone bomb in Moscow then this would change something about the fact that it's a full scale war of aggression... (Fwiw I think it's a false flag)

 

[nativewolf]

Institute for the Study of War

Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin on May 3. Social media footage circulated on May 3 shows a drone detonating near a flagpole on top of the Kremlin Senate Palace building in Moscow as two unidentified people climbed

understandingwar.org

So the real experts believe the attack was staged for domestic consumption in Russia to being home war and the need for further mobilization. More mobilization will hit Moscow and Saint Peter so maybe this is what it is about.

Frankly it makes more sense than a false flag - it was just to silly to be a real false flag attack.

 

[madodel]

Kremlin Guidelines for Media Coverage of Ukrainian Counteroffensive Leaked

The guidelines, which recommended emphasizing the fact that Ukraine is being armed by NATO while discouraging any suggestion that Kyiv is underprepared, appear aimed at giving Moscow the chance to spin any outcome of the expected counter-attack positively.

 

[samppa]

Zelensky in Finland at the moment

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654098902746890241

 

[bobby g]

One of my childhood friends was an immigrant from Cuba (in Los Angeles). He was an aeronautical engineering major in college and I pointed out his options would be limited if he didn't get his citizenship so he and his older brother went through the process when he was 19 and his brother 20. They had been in the US since they were very small and both spoke perfect English. My friend criticized his brother because his Spanish had a heavy American accent.

When they arrived for the test, the examiner asked his brother "do you speako Englisho?" and his brother said "yeah, do you?" She threw the toughest questions on the test at him, but he passed with flying colors. At the time he was a double major at Claremont Colleges, English and Psychology.

Being a smart ass I can verify that no one likes us. That officer may not have been making fun, many are naturalized themselves. I've seen immigration officers from Russia, China, Korea, Philippines, Mexico, Germany and others. Some have an English speaking level that is less than some applicants.
Depending on when a test was taken the officer may have had control but now the reading, writing and civics are randomly generated. Spoken English is tested by the applicants ability to understand the application that was filed and confirm its contents. Exp, "read" where does the president live? "Write" the president lives in the white house. Civics, ten questions, 60% is a pass. Get the first six, you're done.

The US is one of the easiest countries in which to obtain citizenship (other than a few where it can be purchased)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654143882169286656

 

[JRP3]

Tractor adapted with remote control for mine clearing

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654143882169286656

What an idiot, it was clearly staged by Russia, and he fell for it.

 

[mars_or_bust]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654143882169286656

what a clown. He makes Biden look like an intellectual giant.

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654143882169286656

Maybe trying to differentiate himself from the incumbent on the democratic ticket for a small shot at the presidency. But between that and anti-vaccine activism, this is likely to lower his odds.

 

[iPlug]

Israel slowly warming towards more material assistance to Ukraine, providing missile detection system:

An Israeli-designed missile detection system that would give Ukrainians more time to take shelter from Russian missile attacks is being tested in Kyiv and may be activated within two months, Ukraine's ambassador to Israel said on Thursday.​

Ukraine hopes to protect Kyiv with Israeli alert system by summer

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Zelensky in Finland at the moment

That must be his double then. Zelensky was in The Netherlands all day and left less than two hours ago.

 

[samppa]

That must be his double then. Zelensky was in The Netherlands all day and left less than two hours ago.

Yeah, it was yesterday.. sorry about that
He flew from finland to nl late last night

 

[nativewolf]

Saw a video of himars today. 4 launchers -simultaneously launching. Lot of rockets in the air. Noel and others had videos of the Russian using glide bombs in Kherson. Big bombs.