Ukraine continues to impress. For those that do t know the history as soon as the Ukrainian kicked out putins puppet Russia backed the Ukrainian/Russian mobsters in the Donbas into declaring themselves independent. That is the start of all this. So now we have some “Russians” seeking to Break off putins yoke. Too funny
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Turn-about is fair play!
I suspect this is a bit like how the US is not involved in the Ukraine. It's like Russian dolls. The US funds and equips Ukraine, Ukraine equips and funds Russian insurgents.
Regardless, this is entirely too convenient for Ukraine. This is right in the middle of the region of Russia where they have been staging supplies for the Ukrainian invasion. Now the Russian "insurgents" are seizing the very equipment Russian military was staging for Ukraine. Russia will have to use their own weapons to destroy their own weapon caches to keep them out of the hands of these Russian rebels. Ideally for Ukraine, Russia withdraws a decent number of troops to deal with this.
Russian soldiers can be effective and clever as can be. If Russian leadership points them at stupid objectives it will not help much.
My theory is that Ukraine is behind this in some manner (even if indirectly) as part of their shaping operation for their imminent counteroffensive. Russia is trying to make strategically prudent decisions of where to place their defenses and makes sense for Ukraine to thin them by forcing Russia to reallocate personnel and materials back to Russian legal border territory.
Mark Hertling agrees with you
This operation may be a bit like the Bay of Pigs operation. It's supported and backed by Ukraine, but everyone directly involved is Russian. Ukraine probably coordinated this with the rebels to throw Russia into disarray just before launching the full scale offensive.
Russia can't let this go. It's something Putin must respond to. But the only resources he has to counter this rebellion are his troops currently in Ukraine. That means weakening his defenses somewhere to send troops to Belgorod. While the Belogod rescue force is in transit, the Ukrainians strike. The Ukrainians may be sitting back and watching where Russia is going to weaken their forces to send them to Belgorod. Where ever forces are weakened the most is where Ukraine will strike.
It would take Russia at least a week to move forces out of the south, probably longer if they were going to do it in any orderly way. Just throwing anybody they can find on a train any sending them to Belgorod will take a week. Sending troops from the Donbas will take a few days less because they don't have to go through Crimea and southern Russia to get on the train north to Belgorod.
Belgoraod is a major supply hub for the Russians. Apparently the rebels captured a lot of Russian equipment. Even if they are forced to retreat from the city, they can take most of that equipment with them and destroy whatever they can't move.
Belgorod could remain in rebel hands, which would be the best case scenario. They may be forced to withdraw, but even if they do, Russia has lost all the equipment stored there and anything of military value will be destroyed on the way out. Plus Russia will need to keep a force stationed in Belgorod to prevent it happening again.
A good shaping operation forces the enemy into a situation where they only have bad choices left. This looks like a pretty good shaping operation to me.
All of this plus… every time Russian moves large numbers of troops they end up with concentrations of bodies which suddenly become premium targets for HIMARs and other precision strikes.
This is kind of the big tell, as you suggest, Russia absolutely needs to shut this down quickly, the longer it festers, the bigger the problems. There are other parts of Russia which I suspect are quite ready to declare Independence.
I’m sure China is prepping to send in a “Peace Keeping force” into eastern Russia as well.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Only 1/3 ?
Makes sense, but it takes Russians to take up arms against Putin. All I can say is FANTASTIC. I bet the Russian satellite states are watching with interest.
If UKR can take out the Crimea supply line, the upcoming counteroffensive is looking bright
And it warms my heart to think that brave anti-Putinites may be able to seek refuge in UKR when needed
Shows how well the propaganda works.
Also, likely difficult to get straight answers out of Russian college age students when saying the wrong answer might accelerate your route to the front line.
This group seem to be Russians who were fighting in Ukraine against Russia.
They have done a raid over the border once before and returned to Ukraine.
Denys thinks it is most likely that they will return to Ukraine.
One day I think they will at least try to liberate Russia, and it is better to try that while most of the Russian troops are occupied elsewhere,
IMO Russia is initially unlikely to use their main tactic of mass artillery against their own civilian towns, so they need to retake the territory with troops and tanks, and that might put the tanks in some danger.
I'm very interested to see how far they go and how long they stay... and if they strike again at a future date, perhaps elsewhere.
There must be plenty of similar border areas that need to be properly defended.
China probably won't want to occupy Siberia, but they will happily move it into its sphere of influence.
The Russians used mass artillery on Russian citizens in the Chechen wars. But they may not have the mass artillery left to use against the forces holding Belgorod. It will be interesting to see what they use to try and take the place back. Politically taking back territory that was Russia before the war will probably become a top priority, so they will likely use all they've got to try and get it back.
One thing my partner was reading is this is looking a lot like 1917. As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme sometimes. This is definitely rhyming with 1917.
Considering all the sabotage we've seen all over Russia, these guys may be a fairly large group that has cells all over the country. If they do, other cells will be acting out soon and this could lead to Moscow trying to fight 50 fires with 10 fire engines. If the rebellion gets going, Russia may have to pull out of Ukraine because what's left of the army will be needed in Russia. Rebellion in Russia may also give the troops in the field ideas about rebelling too.
Dictatorships look strong until suddenly everything falls apart at once. I wouldn't count on a whole bunch of democracies suddenly springing up, but if the various regions of Russia could break away from Moscow there is a better chance of it and at minimum these regions would finally be able to develop on their own without Moscow trying to control everything.
Two Weeks at the Front in Ukraine
In the trenches in the Donbas, infantrymen face unrelenting horrors, from missiles to grenades to helicopter fire.
very tough read, excellent journalism.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Unfortunately I think the Chinese Dictator may send a "peace keeping force" to support the Russian Dictator... Maybe the North Korean Dictator sends one as well.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
That was the other possibility I considered, if a Rebellion gets started somewhere, other Russians might travel to the area to join in, or police and army in the area may decide to join the Rebellion.
I suspect if the Chinese were going to get involved, they would have by now. North Korea, likewise.
Seems to me people should delay publishing this kind of thing by days or even weeks.
Or just take advantage of the lessened security elsewhere and double down on their local mayhem.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"May 21, 2023
Russia's deputy minister for science and higher education died on May 20 during a return flight from Cuba, where he was participating in meetings as part of a government delegation [...]. Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, became seriously ill on the nearly 12-hour flight back home. [...] The cause of his death was not immediately known. [..."
www.rferl.org
Russian Deputy Education Minister, 46, Dies On Return Flight From Cuba
Russia's deputy minister for science and higher education died on May 20 during a return flight from Cuba, where he was participating in meetings as part of a government delegation [...]. Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, became seriously ill on the nearly 12-hour flight back home. [...] The cause of his death was not immediately known. [..."
Russian Deputy Education Minister, 46, Dies On Return Flight From Cuba
Russia’s deputy minister for science and higher education died on May 20 during a return flight from Cuba, where he was participating in meetings as part of a government delegation, RBK reported.
www.rferl.org
