Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] This is kind of the big tell, as you suggest, Russia absolutely needs to shut this down quickly, the longer it festers, the bigger the problems. There are other parts of Russia which I suspect are quite ready to declare Independence.

I’m sure China is prepping to send in a “Peace Keeping force” into eastern Russia as well.

Unfortunately I think the Chinese Dictator may send a "peace keeping force" to support the Russian Dictator... Maybe the North Korean Dictator sends one as well.

I suspect if the Chinese were going to get involved, they would have by now. North Korea, likewise. [...

Russian Oblasts in "eastern Russia" bordering (or located near) the Dictator's China has not yet started to rebell against the Russian Dictator...

EDIT (to clarify): I don’t think the Chinese Dictator is about to start some kind of ’special military operation’ with ’peace keepers’ to reclaim territory that was once part of some version of China. Russia is still a nuclear power… But I do think that the Chinese Dictator may unfortunately send a ’peace keeping force’ to support the Russian Dictator if Russian Oblasts in eastern Russia bordering (or located near) the Dictator's China were to start to rebell against the Russian Dictator…

(But maybe there's something that I have misunderstood...)

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

About time...

I wonder where these are now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660707390675664898

Seems to me people should delay publishing this kind of thing by days or even weeks. [...

Since both NoelReports and DefMon (and who knows how many more) has already posted about this some nine hours ago, I guess 'the cat is out of the bag' on this one...

 

[Ogre]

Russian Oblasts in "eastern Russia" bordering (or located near) the Dictator's China has not yet started to rebell against the Russian Dictator...

Not yet.

Since both NoelReports and DefMon (and who knows how many more) has already posted about this some nine hours ago, I guess 'the cat is out of the bag' on this one...

Yep. Just seems to me a couple dozen extra APCs would be a nice surprise for Russia.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This group seem to be Russians who were fighting in Ukraine against Russia.

They have done a raid over the border once before and returned to Ukraine.

Doesn't look like this group has returned to Ukrainian territory:

22 May: TABLES TURNED. Ukrainians CONDUCT A SPECIAL OPERATION. 10 km in 1 Day!!! | War in Ukraine (2 hrs ago)

 

[Artful Dodger]

"May 21, 2023

Russian Deputy Education Minister, 46, Dies On Return Flight From Cuba​

Russia's deputy minister for science and higher education died on May 20 during a return flight from Cuba

And in unrelated science news, Kinzhal hypersonic missile range increased from 2,000 km to 9,585.8 km...

 

[SageBrush]

Putin is having a temper tantrum.

 

[MC3OZ]

Doesn't look like this group has returned to Ukrainian territory:

22 May: TABLES TURNED. Ukrainians CONDUCT A SPECIAL OPERATION. 10 km in 1 Day!!! | War in Ukraine (2 hrs ago)

Yes, I am waiting to see how the situation plays out in the next 24 hours, we don't know what their plans are,

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Found this interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660849267932639232

 

[Doggydogworld]

"May 21, 2023

Russian Deputy Education Minister, 46, Dies On Return Flight From Cuba​

The headline I saw said "Russian Official Falls Ill On Plane And Dies", but I read it as "Falls Out Of Plane And Dies".

 

[wdolson]

A bit of perspective. Russia's media spin on the war:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660724802447896577

Russian losses reported by Ukraine today. One thing of note: a lot of artillery taken out.
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023...s-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-23-05-2023/

 

[petit_bateau]

All of this plus… every time Russian moves large numbers of troops they end up with concentrations of bodies which suddenly become premium targets for HIMARs and other precision strikes.

This is kind of the big tell, as you suggest, Russia absolutely needs to shut this down quickly, the longer it festers, the bigger the problems. There are other parts of Russia which I suspect are quite ready to declare Independence.

I’m sure China is prepping to send in a “Peace Keeping force” into eastern Russia as well.

I am fairly sure that UKR has undertaken not to use the long range Western weaponry outside of Ukraine's own sovereign territory. However that still leaves quite a few other ways of making life problematic for those targets using non-Western weaponry.

 

[UncaNed]

Found this interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660849267932639232

I wonder if that guy's still alive and what he has to say about this now!

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661020106913374209

 

[wdolson]

The situation in Belgorod is confusing with both sides claiming victories today. The Russians released this footage claiming to be rebel vehicles destroyed at the border

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661069903791570965

One thing stands out for me in this video. It shows two US made HMMWVs in what appears to be a tank ditch. The only way one of those could have gotten into the ditch on its own was by backing into it. Additionally the US has forbidden the use of American made equipment on Russian territory. All the footage of the rebels so far has been with Russian made equipment, no HMMWVs.

I suspect the Russians took a couple of badly damaged HMMWVs they had captured, and dropped them in an anti-tank trench for the photo-op.

 

[nativewolf]

The headline I saw said "Russian Official Falls Ill On Plane And Dies", but I read it as "Falls Out Of Plane And Dies".

Can't you die from fear of heights? Was the window open?

 

[MC3OZ]

The situation in Belgorod is confusing with both sides claiming victories today. The Russians released this footage claiming to be rebel vehicles destroyed at the border

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661069903791570965

One thing stands out for me in this video. It shows two US made HMMWVs in what appears to be a tank ditch. The only way one of those could have gotten into the ditch on its own was by backing into it. Additionally the US has forbidden the use of American made equipment on Russian territory. All the footage of the rebels so far has been with Russian made equipment, no HMMWVs.

I suspect the Russians took a couple of badly damaged HMMWVs they had captured, and dropped them in an anti-tank trench for the photo-op.

A possible Russian motivation could be "saving face" and "calming the local population".

If the raiding party hand been captured or killed, there would probably be some photo evidence for that, And I can't see why the Russians would not release it,.

If they retreated without their vehicle, or there was some on-going fighting, we might have heard about that.

As far as I call tell, no one can independently verify the claims made by either side, and we don't really know what is going on.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

...] Additionally the US has forbidden the use of American made equipment on Russian territory. All the footage of the rebels so far has been with Russian made equipment, no HMMWVs. [My underline.] [...

Do we have some kind of source to back this up?

Here's Spokesperson Matthew Miller at the Department of State daily press briefing, May 22:

"...] QUESTION: So, in Belgorod there were – there are obviously these reports, and there’s images online that suggest American weapons have been used. So, I know you don’t know, but do you support U.S. weapons being used on Russian territory? [...]

MR MILLER: [...] And then with respect to the broader policy question, we have made very clear to the Ukrainians that we don’t enable or encourage attacks outside Ukrainians’ borders, but I do think it’s important to take a step back and remind everyone, and remind the world, that it – of course it is Russia that launched this war. It’s Russia that continues to launch attacks on civilians in Ukraine. It’s Russia that’s targeted schools and hospitals and civilian infrastructure. So, it is up to Ukraine to decide how they want to conduct their military operations, but it is Russia that has been the aggressor in this war. [My underline.] [..."

Department Press Briefing – May 22, 2023 - United States Department of State

1:31 p.m. EDT MR MILLER: Hello, everyone. Sorry for being a few minutes late. QUESTION: Yes, well, we won’t hold it against you, your first day on the job and you show up 15 minutes — MR MILLER: Are you going to let me speak, before we get into grilling me, Matt? QUESTION: Of course. […]

www.state.gov

And here in motion picture. Fast forward to the 26:05 mark:

 

[wdolson]

A possible Russian motivation could be "saving face" and "calming the local population".

If the raiding party hand been captured or killed, there would probably be some photo evidence for that, And I can't see why the Russians would not release it,.

If they retreated without their vehicle, or there was some on-going fighting, we might have heard about that.

As far as I call tell, no one can independently verify the claims made by either side, and we don't really know what is going on.

Agreed. The plan may be that the rebels will hang out in Belorod oblast causing as much trouble as possible until the Russians bring enough forces in to counter them at which point the plan is to retreat back across the border.

It appears Russia has so thoroughly stripped their forces everywhere to send them to Ukraine that the rebels have little more than local police to counter the raiders. It may be a few weeks before they can get enough troops into Belgorod to counter the rebels. In the meantime the rebels could be destroying Russian military infrastructure around Belgorod.

Belgorod is one of the biggest hubs of support for the Russian war effort.

Do we have some kind of source to back this up?

Here's Spokesperson Matthew Miller at the Department of State daily press briefing, May 22:

"...] QUESTION: So, in Belgorod there were – there are obviously these reports, and there’s images online that suggest American weapons have been used. So, I know you don’t know, but do you support U.S. weapons being used on Russian territory? [...]

MR MILLER: [...] And then with respect to the broader policy question, we have made very clear to the Ukrainians that we don’t enable or encourage attacks outside Ukrainians’ borders, but I do think it’s important to take a step back and remind everyone, and remind the world, that it – of course it is Russia that launched this war. It’s Russia that continues to launch attacks on civilians in Ukraine. It’s Russia that’s targeted schools and hospitals and civilian infrastructure. So, it is up to Ukraine to decide how they want to conduct their military operations, but it is Russia that has been the aggressor in this war. [My underline.] [..."

Department Press Briefing – May 22, 2023 - United States Department of State

1:31 p.m. EDT MR MILLER: Hello, everyone. Sorry for being a few minutes late. QUESTION: Yes, well, we won’t hold it against you, your first day on the job and you show up 15 minutes — MR MILLER: Are you going to let me speak, before we get into grilling me, Matt? QUESTION: Of course. […]

www.state.gov

And here in motion picture. Fast forward to the 26:05 mark:

I have seen some prohibitions on major weapons. Before the US gave permission to transfer the F-16s they made sure the Ukrainians agreed not to use them outside the pre-2014 borders of Ukraine. Same with long range weapons like HIMARS. I also thought I saw somewhere that the US was uncomfortable with Ukraine using any US weapons outside Ukraine.

It may be the US is concerned, but is not saying anything definitive publicly due to operational secrecy. I'm sure the US knows more than they are saying.

 

[madodel]

Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault

 

[BitJam]

Do we have some kind of source to back this up?

Here's one regarding the US giving Ukraine HIMARS.

US sending advanced rocket systems to Ukraine

The Biden administration will send long-range rocket systems as part of a $700 million weapons package to Ukraine, senior administration officials told reporters on Tuesday night. The new package i…

thehill.com

The official added that the systems would be used to repel Russian systems; they would not be used inside Russian territory.​

​

[...] Biden told reporters on Monday that the U.S. was “not going to send to Ukraine rocket systems that strike into Russia,” as there are concerns about escalating the war into a larger conflict.​

​

Here is another regarding Storm Shadow missiles.

Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.html

A Western official told CNN that the UK has received assurances from the Ukrainian government that these missiles will be used only within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not inside Russia. UK officials have made frequent public statements identifying Crimea as Ukrainian sovereign territory, describing it as “illegally annexed.”​

​

Searching was tricky because Google is very eager to give me information about sanctions. I got the links above by searching for the missile system "... inside of Russia". I think there are more definitive reports about the policy but I'm not sure how to find them.