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My take on marketing: No doubt gas savings are true, but in this case it might be an idea not to push the truth in this way as it seems to backfire.
So long as Tesla is cell constrained it is unprofitable to introduce the P100D or something 100D, but these make sense once there is a surplus of new cells and there is a need to increase ASP.
Yeah, I'm not so sure about this either. Imagine of Ford advertised the new Focus asAgreed. If you are interested in a model S you will know this already, or believe it when it is explained to you. Pushing it this way feeds bears.
Take a look at the Design Studio this morning; the color range has been slashed:Strange. Did they cut colors at the last minute then? And somehow black and different black passed the too similar test?
here is my table from the article - Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking AlphaIt sounds like you took up my challenge to build your own model for how the 70D adds incremental profit. I look forward to reading this. Good luck.
70kWh % | 85kWhn % | Extra Batteries Available (MWh) | No of extra cars at same ratio | %extra cars | Extra Revenue M (100k ASP - 90k ASP) | Extra Gross Profit (at 25%) | No. of additional 10kWh home storage units | Revenue at 10000 each (NYSE:M) | Extra Gross Profit (at 50%) |
20 | 80 | 25 | 305 | 0.61 | 31 | 7.75 | 2500 | 25 | 12.5 |
30 | 70 | 100 | 1242 | 2.48 | 122 | 30.5 | 10000 | 100 | 50 |
40 | 60 | 175 | 2215 | 4.43 | 214 | 53.5 | 17500 | 175 | 87.5 |
50 | 50 | 250 | 3226 | 6.45 | 306 | 76.5 | 25000 | 250 | 125 |
60 | 40 | 325 | 4276 | 8.55 | 399 | 99.75 | 32500 | 325 | 162.5 |
70 | 30 | 400 | 5369 | 10.74 | 492 | 123 | 40000 | 400 | 200 |
80 | 20 | 475 | 6507 | 13.01 | 586 | 146.5 | 47500 | 475 | 237.5 |
here is my table from the article - Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
70kWh % 85kWhn % Extra Batteries Available (MWh) No of extra cars at same ratio %extra cars Extra Revenue M (100k ASP - 90k ASP) Extra Gross Profit (at 25%) No. of additional 10kWh home storage units Revenue at 10000 each (NYSE:M) Extra Gross Profit (at 50%) 20 80 25 305 0.61 31 7.75 2500 25 12.5 30 70 100 1242 2.48 122 30.5 10000 100 50 40 60 175 2215 4.43 214 53.5 17500 175 87.5 50 50 250 3226 6.45 306 76.5 25000 250 125 60 40 325 4276 8.55 399 99.75 32500 325 162.5 70 30 400 5369 10.74 492 123 40000 400 200 80 20 475 6507 13.01 586 146.5 47500 475 237.5
Great article! By principle I haven't loggedin to SA for over a year but your article was worth it
here is my table from the article - Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
70kWh % 85kWhn % Extra Batteries Available (MWh) No of extra cars at same ratio %extra cars Extra Revenue M (100k ASP - 90k ASP) Extra Gross Profit (at 25%) No. of additional 10kWh home storage units Revenue at 10000 each (NYSE:M) Extra Gross Profit (at 50%) 20 80 25 305 0.61 31 7.75 2500 25 12.5 30 70 100 1242 2.48 122 30.5 10000 100 50 40 60 175 2215 4.43 214 53.5 17500 175 87.5 50 50 250 3226 6.45 306 76.5 25000 250 125 60 40 325 4276 8.55 399 99.75 32500 325 162.5 70 30 400 5369 10.74 492 123 40000 400 200 80 20 475 6507 13.01 586 146.5 47500 475 237.5
Great article, thank you.
A new model is quite a nice surprise from Tesla. I will not be surprised if 70D outsells all other Tesla models this year.
Reading comments on SA Tesla related articles reinforces my Tesla investment expectations. Usual bears with usual well worn out and discredited arguments are often bordering on comical.
Why? What is it that you loose with dual motors?
Honestly, if one of your 2 motors goes out the car is going to throw a "pull over safely". I doubt you will just drive on your merry way until you can get it serviced.
Thanks! Yeah it is fun to read comments and often frustrating. But as an author I hadn't posted anything for a long time now and I was getting argument withdrawal.
here is my table from the article - Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
70kWh %
85kWhn %
Extra Batteries Available (MWh)
No of extra cars at same ratio
%extra cars
Extra Revenue M (100k ASP - 90k ASP)
Extra Gross Profit (at 25%)
No. of additional 10kWh home storage units
Revenue at 10000 each (NYSE:M)
Extra Gross Profit (at 50%)
20
80
25
305
0.61
31
7.75
2500
25
12.5
30
70
100
1242
2.48
122
30.5
10000
100
50
40
60
175
2215
4.43
214
53.5
17500
175
87.5
50
50
250
3226
6.45
306
76.5
25000
250
125
60
40
325
4276
8.55
399
99.75
32500
325
162.5
70
30
400
5369
10.74
492
123
40000
400
200
80
20
475
6507
13.01
586
146.5
47500
475
237.5
So basically your assumption is TM is battery supply constrained?
Anecdotally, it seems people that are stepping down from an 85 to a 70D are not lowering the price paid.
They are replacing kWh with options. Pano roof ,premium paint, next gen seats, air suspension, high fidelity sound system etc.
I doubt that 70D was introduced due to battery supply constraint.
70D is likely to open up demand and enable Tesla to make more cars with less batteries.
Is there a source for this or is it a totally unsubstantiated assumption?
A lot of members are repeating it as if it was fact but I find it HIGHLY unlikely. Why would they be launching a battery intensive new product line if batteries were an issue?! It makes NO sense and would mean a huge management misstep.
To me it's more likely that they will use the stationary storage to absorb SURPLUS of OLD batteries. The NEW battery packs MIGHT be constrained in the short term though, but no information I've seen so far points to that.