There are FAR more than just three public charger networks in the USA. Large networks like ChargePoint do not have many DC quick chargers at all, nor have they offered "support" for Combo.
I named those three because they are the largest DC charging networks. I didn't mention ChargePoint because they have relatively low DC charging presence (added their first 25kW DC station in 11/2012). But okay, even if you add them, that does not add many chargers to the CHAdeMO side. And besides from them I don't believe there are any other charging networks with any DC charging presence (planned or other wise). Feel free to correct me if that's not true.
350green was near bankrupt and bought out *** April 11, 2013 update: 350green investigated by FBI; operations in 19 markets stopped **** and Blink will be bankrupt when federal funds dry up.
Both of these are currently CHAdeMO networks so them going bankrupt will only drastically decrease the number of available CHAdeMO. In particular, Blink is by far the #1 provider across the US and 350Green #1 in Chicago.
As I stated in my post. No public Frankenplugs, and those three cars (I didn't name eGolf) in the USA. Of those three, two are strictly CARB compliance cars which will sell in comically small numbers. Check out the sales of Toyota Rav4EV, Ford FocusEV, Mitsubishi iMiev and Honda FitEV to see just how ridiculously small those numbers can go. The BMW i3 may sell in respectable numbers, but I find that highly unlikely given the initial price point of almost $50k.
How many CHAdeMO cars are there in the US? I can count them on 2 fingers: the Leaf and the iMIEV. The iMIEV sells at compliance car volume (even though it's not technically one). So again, it'll mainly be a two horse race between the i3 and Leaf. But that's kind of beside the point. As long as there is some presence of SAE DC capable cars (esp. non-compliance) there will be stations built for it. And how long do you expect the Leaf to hold a virtual EV monopoly (Tesla excluded)? If EVs truly become viable (not niche) I suspect not very long.
Does anybody find it odd that the number one selling EV of all time, with over 50,000 sold, is not in the Frankenplug Club?
No. Nissan is one of the founding members of CHAdeMO and invested millions into the standard. CHAdeMO is also the only viable standard in their home market. It makes sense why they want to stick with CHAdeMO.
The aim for those 200 stations is specifically NOT "by this summer". The agreement for NRG is over 4 years, with only 12 CHAdeMO equipped stations (with J1772) the first year and the remaining 188 over the following 3 years.
From Robert's quote, as long as there are two UL certified station manufacturers (which should happen by this summer from the document I posted) they have to modify all existing CHAdeMO stations to support SAE DC. The reason they have been foot dragging is because it's cheaper than retrofitting CHAdeMO stations later on. There's no provision for minimal cars, just that if any standard gets abandoned then they don't have to follow the requirement.
I'll bet more Tesla Model S/X/Gen III are using them in the coming years with adaptors than ALL the Frankenplug cars combined. Of course, those Tesla cars will have their own dedicated network plus access to both CHAdeMO and Frankenplug stations with adapters. ADVANTAGE TESLA !!!!
That's actually not a problem for me and I would like to see this. But I bet most people would rather pick the SAE adapter if station availability is similar (which is why I'm rooting for SAE DC).
VW didn't go with Combo because Combo was making "in-roads".... quite the opposite !!!! It's a "non sequitur".
My point there was VW probably expected CHAdeMO to have much more presence in Europe and that's probably why they started with CHAdeMO. But Leaf/iMIEV sales have been hugely disappointing in Europe and Nissan's main partner, Renault, opted not to support it at all. Add the fact that the EU recently said they would only support IEC standards (which CHADeMO isn't, although they are trying to make it so) and it become clear why VW ditched it.
If adapters are available anywhere in the world, they will show up in the USA, guaranteed. That means somebody driving their Combo car with no place to charge can use the many thousands of CHAdeMO stations already around the world.
Why would someone with a Combo car (or vise versa) WANT to use an adapter over having stations that support both types? California is pushing for dual stations exactly so this can be avoided. Tesla is only going with adapters because they are using a completely proprietary standard (plus the whole free charging for life).
As a matter of fact, Nissan is adding 500 more, and there will be thousands more soon.
Nissan is offering dealer CHAdeMO stations, but real world usage of it both in the US and UK shows them to be unreliable. This is because they are only accessible during business hours, you must get dealer permission to use it (and even if you call in ahead sometimes they change their mind), and the status is not electronically updated. This is not the same as stations installed as part of public networks (like the 4 we have mentioned so far).
I'll readily admit I'm hugely optimistic about SAE and that it hasn't even gotten of the ground yet, but I think you are overly pessimistic about it.